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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) |
On January 23 2015 23:11 lichter wrote:
Swoopae, I am curious about Pinnacle's registration system. Since bets have the potential to move lines, are accounts required to be tied to a bank account/paypal/credit card? Wouldn't it be easy for Pinnacle to just search for that information from the anomalous bettors? Or are the bets made anonymously? Seems like an odd system if people were allowed to bet without a guarantee of payment. So shouldn't uncovering the bettors be relatively easy?
Yes, you need to send in your ID which is linked to your account in order to withdraw or transfer money. It's standard protocol for sportsbetting and online poker sites. After you've sent in your ID once though they rarely ask you for anything else or to send it again etc. They also track the IPs bets are placed from I believe.
There's a chance that they have signed up using stolen ID card/credit cards and VPNs but theres also a chance they didn't, i'm not an online security expert you'd need to ask Pinnacle for a fully accurate answer.
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If it's confirmed that it also happened in a match where the player who was bet on lost (Life vs Maru), doesn't it speak against player's involvement?
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Is it known how much money was needed to manipulate the odds that way?
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On January 23 2015 23:30 TheDwf wrote:
Is it known how much money was needed to manipulate the odds that way?
yeah i wonder that as well, if there isn't much needed it doesn't really seem that fishy, right?
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On January 23 2015 23:30 TheDwf wrote:
Is it known how much money was needed to manipulate the odds that way?
Pinnacle know, the rest of us can speculate but given they have sharp accounts move the line further than square accounts its hard to tell exactly
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On January 23 2015 23:29 Nebuchad wrote:
If it's confirmed that it also happened in a match where the player who was bet on lost (Life vs Maru), doesn't it speak against player's involvement?
Yeah, I don't think anyone is suggesting that game was fixed, just an example of unusual line movement from that guy (no idea if it was or not)
Flash regularly gets absurd steam on him and Jaedong used to; they just have a lot of casual fans. It's when a person who is a good bet, and who usually gets bet on has all of the money come in against him and then lose that it's suspicious.
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On January 23 2015 23:35 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:30 TheDwf wrote:
Is it known how much money was needed to manipulate the odds that way? Pinnacle know, the rest of us can speculate but given they have sharp accounts move the line further than square accounts its hard to tell exactly
Any order of magnitude? Thousands of dollars? Dozens of thousands? More?
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On January 23 2015 23:37 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:29 Nebuchad wrote:
If it's confirmed that it also happened in a match where the player who was bet on lost (Life vs Maru), doesn't it speak against player's involvement? Yeah, I don't think anyone is suggesting that game was fixed, just an example of unusual line movement from that guy (no idea if it was or not) Flash regularly gets absurd steam on him and Jaedong used to; they just have a lot of casual fans. It's when a person who is a good bet, and who usually gets bet on has all of the money come in against him and then lose that it's suspicious.
Euh so line movements like that happen "regularly"?
I guess the difference is that in these matches there wasn't much money involved so you didn't need much money to move the line that much?
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United Kingdom31935 Posts
Can we bottomline it that something weird is going on BUT NO PLAYER FIXED and innocent until proven guilty
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On January 23 2015 23:37 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:29 Nebuchad wrote:
If it's confirmed that it also happened in a match where the player who was bet on lost (Life vs Maru), doesn't it speak against player's involvement? Yeah, I don't think anyone is suggesting that game was fixed, just an example of unusual line movement from that guy (no idea if it was or not) Flash regularly gets absurd steam on him and Jaedong used to; they just have a lot of casual fans. It's when a person who is a good bet, and who usually gets bet on has all of the money come in against him and then lose that it's suspicious.
Well the 2+2 thread is devolving into conspiracy theories now so there's that (apparently MVPMK got to finals of Hot6ix Cup cause Hot6ix sponsors MVP and so every protoss threw against him, lol). But from my understanding of what's been said there, that match was mentioned because the same type of movement happened, right? So the only difference between this match and the others is that Life ended up winning, isn't it?
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On January 23 2015 23:39 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:35 Swoopae wrote:On January 23 2015 23:30 TheDwf wrote:
Is it known how much money was needed to manipulate the odds that way? Pinnacle know, the rest of us can speculate but given they have sharp accounts move the line further than square accounts its hard to tell exactly Any order of magnitude? Thousands of dollars? Dozens of thousands? More?
When the lines open, hundreds will move it a small amount, thousands a large. On game day, thousands will move the line, and tens of thousands will move the line in extreme fashion like San vs Dark style. On a major tournament final (think Code s final) where lots of people are betting the numbers would be larger.
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Savior in BW
San in SC2?????????????????
the end is near.... hahaha~
User was temp banned for this post.
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On January 23 2015 23:46 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:39 TheDwf wrote:On January 23 2015 23:35 Swoopae wrote:On January 23 2015 23:30 TheDwf wrote:
Is it known how much money was needed to manipulate the odds that way? Pinnacle know, the rest of us can speculate but given they have sharp accounts move the line further than square accounts its hard to tell exactly Any order of magnitude? Thousands of dollars? Dozens of thousands? More? When the lines open, hundreds will move it a small amount, thousands a large. On game day, thousands will move the line, and tens of thousands will move the line in extreme fashion like San vs Dark style. On a major tournament final (think Code s final) where lots of people are betting the numbers would be larger.
OK, thanks. So, suppose a millionnaire (or more) blasé about life who relishes kicking the nest to watch the ants panicking; or whatever his reason is to become an agent of chaos. Such a guy could be responsible for this mess, triggering this "scandal" with absurd, random bets?
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On January 23 2015 23:45 Nebuchad wrote:
Well the 2+2 thread is devolving into conspiracy theories now so there's that (apparently MVPMK got to finals of Hot6ix Cup cause Hot6ix sponsors MVP and so every protoss threw against him, lol). But from my understanding of what's been said there, that match was mentioned because the same type of movement happened, right? So the only difference between this match and the others is that Life ended up winning, isn't it?
Most of the people posting conspiracy stuff are not regular 2p2 thread users. Please note the guy who said the MVP/Hot6 thing has 2 posts and is not a regular user of the forum. As it is not a starcraft forum sportsbettors are speculating wildly. Some speculation may have validity, most of it won't. The real thing that matters is that Pinnacle and Kespa look into whatever is going on. None of us want San, Innovation or anyone else to be involved in any wrongdoing but something weird is going on and it's Kespa and Pinnacle's job to find out what and tell us. If it's nothing, then cool. If it's something, then we want to know specifically what's going on and why. Whether it's match fixing, pinnacle's fraud detection systems being broken or some weird random coincidences we want to know whats going on.
The one thing that may have merit after today's interesting bet cancellation on Inno/Super game 1 is that the Innovation/sOs and Innovation/herO Hot6 cup line movements were apparently unusual according to the guy that has been PMing me on twitter. I was actually told this yesterday on twitter without the two specific matches being mentioned by said person, after today's Innovation/Super game the poster confirmed that both games in the hot6 cup that they said yesterday to me had suspicious movement were the two mentioned above. I haven't seen them personally so I don't know whether there is any merit or not as I have not seen the line movement graphs myself. I emailed Pinnacle the info though so they can use their algorithms to check if anything unusual happened or not.
Further speculation at this point is useless, but there should be an outrage if this situation isn't thoroughly investigated. I think TL should request a followup interview with Pinnacle today now that a second match's betting has been cancelled due to suspicious line movement which was then confirmed by the games result and Kespa need to speak up ASAP about whether they plan to do anything to look into this or not.
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On January 23 2015 23:52 TheDwf wrote:
OK, thanks. So, suppose a millionnaire (or more) blasé about life who relishes kicking the nest to watch the ants panicking; or whatever his reason is to become an agent of chaos. Such a guy could be responsible for this mess, triggering this "scandal" with absurd, random bets?
Yes, that's possible, but so are many other things including match fixing, random coincidences, Pinnacle's fraud detection systems being wrong out of nowhere multiple times and pretty much any number of outcomes. We won't know until the people who have access to the necessary information tell us.
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I dont want to be unsensitive about this issue, but, are you guys really surprised?
I would not even be surprised if everything here was perfectly legal, no match fixing, no nothing, and a guy who just lost a bet would be exploiting the system to get back the cash he lost.
What I am trying to say is this:
If you are betting money, you should be aware of the possibility of something going wrong, just about the same way as depositing your money in a bank can be fatal if there is a bank run.
Sure, its not a common thing, but it does occasionally happen.
The thing here is, its gonna be hard to PROVE anything. And even If it is, will the money change hands accordingly to make it fair?
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On January 23 2015 23:56 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:45 Nebuchad wrote:
Well the 2+2 thread is devolving into conspiracy theories now so there's that (apparently MVPMK got to finals of Hot6ix Cup cause Hot6ix sponsors MVP and so every protoss threw against him, lol). But from my understanding of what's been said there, that match was mentioned because the same type of movement happened, right? So the only difference between this match and the others is that Life ended up winning, isn't it? Most of the people posting conspiracy stuff are not regular 2p2 thread users. Please note the guy who said the MVP/Hot6 thing has 2 posts and is not a regular user of the forum. As it is not a starcraft forum sportsbettors are speculating wildly. Some speculation may have validity, most of it won't. The real thing that matters is that Pinnacle and Kespa look into whatever is going on. None of us want San, Innovation or anyone else to be involved in any wrongdoing but something weird is going on and it's Kespa and Pinnacle's job to find out what and tell us. If it's nothing, then cool. If it's something, then we want to know specifically what's going on and why. Whether it's match fixing, pinnacle's fraud detection systems being broken or some weird random coincidences we want to know whats going on. The one thing that may have merit after today's interesting bet cancellation on Inno/Super game 1 is that the Innovation/sOs and Innovation/herO Hot6 cup line movements were apparently unusual according to the guy that has been PMing me on twitter. I was actually told this yesterday on twitter without the two specific matches being mentioned by said person, after today's Innovation/Super game the poster confirmed that both games in the hot6 cup that they said yesterday to me had suspicious movement were the two mentioned above. I haven't seen them personally so I don't know whether there is any merit or not as I have not seen the line movement graphs myself. I emailed Pinnacle the info though so they can use their algorithms to check if anything unusual happened or not. Further speculation at this point is useless, but there should be an outrage if this situation isn't thoroughly investigated. I think TL should request a followup interview with Pinnacle today now that a second match's betting has been cancelled due to suspicious line movement which was then confirmed by the games result and Kespa need to speak up ASAP about whether they plan to do anything to look into this or not.
So what the guy who called you a scumbag here wasn't a regular poster either and that didn't stop you from flaming us on 2+2.
Anyway your post doesn't really answer mine. There is a claim that the same pattern happened on Maru vs Life and despite that pattern Life ended up winning. If it's confirmed that this is correct, to me that speaks against player involvement, as it's evidence that certitude of victory isn't a necessity for the bets to occur. Now obviously the claim isn't confirmed but without a specific reason to dismiss it I think we have to take it into account.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On January 23 2015 23:56 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:45 Nebuchad wrote:
Well the 2+2 thread is devolving into conspiracy theories now so there's that (apparently MVPMK got to finals of Hot6ix Cup cause Hot6ix sponsors MVP and so every protoss threw against him, lol). But from my understanding of what's been said there, that match was mentioned because the same type of movement happened, right? So the only difference between this match and the others is that Life ended up winning, isn't it? Further speculation at this point is useless, but there should be an outrage if this situation isn't thoroughly investigated. I think TL should request a followup interview with Pinnacle today now that a second match's betting has been cancelled due to suspicious line movement which was then confirmed by the games result and Kespa need to speak up ASAP about whether they plan to do anything to look into this or not.
We will definitely follow up with Pinnacle, but I would like to hear from Kespa first so both sides will already have said something about what they are doing.
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On January 23 2015 23:52 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2015 23:46 Swoopae wrote:On January 23 2015 23:39 TheDwf wrote:On January 23 2015 23:35 Swoopae wrote:On January 23 2015 23:30 TheDwf wrote:
Is it known how much money was needed to manipulate the odds that way? Pinnacle know, the rest of us can speculate but given they have sharp accounts move the line further than square accounts its hard to tell exactly Any order of magnitude? Thousands of dollars? Dozens of thousands? More? When the lines open, hundreds will move it a small amount, thousands a large. On game day, thousands will move the line, and tens of thousands will move the line in extreme fashion like San vs Dark style. On a major tournament final (think Code s final) where lots of people are betting the numbers would be larger. OK, thanks. So, suppose a millionnaire (or more) blasé about life who relishes kicking the nest to watch the ants panicking; or whatever his reason is to become an agent of chaos. Such a guy could be responsible for this mess, triggering this "scandal" with absurd, random bets?
If we look at the Innovation-example it doens't really make sense.
Let's say your a random millionaire/bilionaire looking for some excitement in your favourite esport (Sc2).
You see Super vs Innovation, and you bet on Super for the lulz. For some reason you bet on G1 and not the whole series, and after you have maxed out the bet and the line moves, you then chosoe to bet against on G1. Then you bet again and again untill the line has moved sufficiently.
Why would you be so focussed on betting on G1 if you were a rich guy looking for some excitement? Why not get more excitement by also beting on G2 and G3 or the whole series?
This just seems so unlikely compared to the other possiblity (matchfixing).
We will definitely follow up with Pinnacle, but I would like to hear from Kespa first so both sides will already have said something about what they are doing.
I guess Kespa has an interest in keeping the rumours down untill they can no longer be ignored. So I am really curious on how they willl react here. Either everything will go nuts or they will try to avoid/downplay the issue.
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EPT
