EPTPinnacle voids Dark vs. San bets due to match manipulation…
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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) | ||
lichter
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On January 24 2015 00:49 Nebuchad wrote: Okay but the reference was Life vs Maru, you were the one to bring up Flash and Jaedong. Life getting to 3.7 vs Maru didn't happen because everyone loves Maru and hates Life... If that happened, and that's a big if as nobody has provided a source for that price I assume it would have been because Life was out of form and Maru was playing well in previous matches and the market overreacted. That price is nowhere near as outlanding as Super being -200 or whatever vs Innovation or Dark being -500 vs San. Clearly Maru vs Life was not a fixed match, nobody has stated that it was, but you can't use it as a defense for other suspicious matches because the line movement is nowhere near the same league even if it occurred. I've asked the guy who claimed he saw that line movement to provide a source that it existed for a proleague match as it feels like something i'd remember if Life had ever been +300 against Maru. I do agree it would have been a badly mispriced line if that claim is accurate. | ||
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Blargh
United States2103 Posts
Also, Innovation is one of the last people I would suspect, given his history of cancelling participation in foreign events in favor of GSL or Korean tournaments, despite the money being better @ the foreign event. He clearly plays to be the best, and money is not as important. But perhaps he has built up this reputation in order to fool us all!! (joke) | ||
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iMOOrtal
Canada144 Posts
On January 24 2015 00:54 Doodsmack wrote: I don't think the world would be any worse off if sports betting went away. Can we not derail this too much, don't bait the gamblers.. Being one of them it would just be too easy to wreck this thread with a silly argument about what you want to discuss. Please and thank you. All I have to say about that. | ||
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Grumbels
Netherlands7031 Posts
On January 24 2015 00:52 Hider wrote: We have data though: The line movements. In the quote Sherlock Holmes didn't say that we needed all the data in the world before we could theorize. I mean, someone did place those bets and we can reason there is suspicious motive behind it. And I think we can exclude eccentric millionaires, terrorist organizations, aliens and internal errors from Pinnacle. But this still leaves us unaware of whether this is systemic corruption, of what scope, whether players or organizers are involved (e.g. fixed maps), whether it has to do with inside information. I'm sure something is going on and it's important to find out, but in the mean time I don't think it's sensible to speculate about Innovation or San. As an example, during the doping era in cycling people started to notice that many cyclists had late-career peaks, that lengthy preparation for important events became the norm, that teams associated with certain doctors improved strongly, that the speed of the peloton increased sharply for no particular reason, that there were a lot of mysterious deaths due to heart failure, that the performance of certain participants was so incredible it seemed to defy human limits, that their blood profiles showed absurd characteristics, that there was a surge in missed doping tests, that cyclists started to aggregate in remote places difficult to access for doping inspectors, and so on. And this all coincided with the recent discovery of a new doping method. There was a lot of evidence that something was going on, but a development which was not useful was a habit of people who followed the scene to accuse anyone with a good recent performance or who stood out in any way; and for back-and-forth accusations where everyone would defend their favorite player and so on. For instance in Tennis a lot of doping accusations are from Federer fanboys who suspect Nadal. You can see it happening already, San was accused and the reaction was a bit "meh", but now that Innovation is accused there will be more fans and there will be more bitterness in case people do make accusations without sufficient proof. I don't even want to imagine what could happen if Flash was linked to any of this. Also, we'll start to get into ridiculous conversations like: "was San/Innovation's play suspicious in this game?" which is impossible to tell really, unless you have a larger sample size. If every time there is vaguely suspicious line movement on Innovation he manages to lose the game despite all odds, then you can be certain, but looking at one single game is silly. (it's much the same as balance discussion honestly) | ||
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Hider
Denmark9433 Posts
whether it has to do with inside information. The inside information was an extremely weak argument when it was used on San, and it doesn't make sense at all in the Innovaiton case. But this still leaves us unaware of whether this is systemic corruption, of what scope, whether players or organizers are involved (e.g. fixed maps), I don't think the fixed maps argument is strong either. I am looking at some of those games and the losses clearly come as a consequence of some split-second errors. The units them selves seems addequately strong. There was a lot of evidence that something was going on, but a development which was not useful was a habit of people who followed the scene to accuse anyone with a good recent performance or who stood out in any way; and for back-and-forth accusations where everyone would defend their favorite player and so on. For instance in Tennis a lot of doping accusations are from Federer fanboys who suspect Nadal. You can see it happening already, San was accused and the reaction was a bit "meh", but now that Innovation is accused there will be more fans and there will be more bitterness in case people do make accusations without sufficient proof. I don't even want to imagine what could happen if Flash was linked to any of this. Look, fanboys will be fanboys. Comments from those guys wil always be dumb, regardless of which "arguments" they use. But without the extreme focus of the audience that doping exists in pro-cycling, Lance Armstrong would still have as good reputation as anyone. I believe it is very important to be really sceptical of the scene atm., and we need action from Kespa. Moreover, we can "objectively" identify the games which (potentially) are beng match-fixed by looking at line-movements. We don't need to speculate based on watching the games. | ||
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Grumbels
Netherlands7031 Posts
On January 24 2015 01:13 Hider wrote: The inside information was an extremely weak argument when it was used on San, and it doesn't make sense at all in the Innovaiton case. I don't think the fixed maps argument is strong either. I am looking at some of those games and the losses clearly come as a consequence of some split-second errors. The units them selves seems addequately strong. Well, sure, I think the most likely theory is that there is a match fixing ring and that San & Innovation are involved. But there are some incongruencies, like: 1. why have two suspicious bets two days in a row after the first was voided 2. why use pinnacle to begin with 3. why use the San-Dark match when San is unlikely to win anyway 4. what about suspicious line movement at the Life vs Maru match which had opposite results (just random objections, there are arguments against them obviously). There are still too many possibilities and the evidence is not strong enough, so I just think one needs to be careful to avoid conspiracy-esque thinking, because otherwise (like the quote) the theories start to twist the facts instead of the other way around. | ||
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aidoSC
Russian Federation40 Posts
cancellation rates again? | ||
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xuanzue
Colombia1747 Posts
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Hider
Denmark9433 Posts
But there are some incongruencies, like: 1. why have two suspicious bets two days in a row after the first was voided The arrangements were likely made in advance. why use pinnacle to begin with It probably accept larger bets. why use the San-Dark match when San is unlikely to win anyway (just random objections, there are arguments against them obviously). I think the main priority for matchfixers is to get an arrangement in place. Getting arrangements with favourites to lose on purpose is probably harder if there is more on the line for the favourite. what about suspicious line movement at the Life vs Maru match which had opposite results (just random objections, there are arguments against them obviously) Well one possbility here is an internal error/rich-guy argument, but you excluded that possbility in your previous post. The only other alternative is that there initially was an arrangement, but the player got cold feets. | ||
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Penev
28527 Posts
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Grumbels
Netherlands7031 Posts
On January 24 2015 01:23 Hider wrote: The arrangements were likely made in advance. It probably accept larger bets. Well, why not use more websites? I can hardly imagine they're the only e-sports betting website and the line movements won't stand out as much if you use multiple websites, plus you get more profit because of less line movement to begin with. (perhaps only Pinnacle would do or perhaps it's an amateur operation which didn't consider this?) On January 24 2015 01:24 Penev wrote: You people all know that Sherlock Holmes is a fictional character yes? ..quiet | ||
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Hider
Denmark9433 Posts
https://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/E Sports/SC2 GSL/1/Lines.aspx | ||
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Blargh
United States2103 Posts
On January 24 2015 01:26 Grumbels wrote: Well, why not use more websites? I can hardly imagine they're the only e-sports betting website and the line movements won't stand out as much if you use multiple websites, plus you get more profit because of less line movement to begin with. ..quiet I do wonder why a person who was actually fixing a match would use Pinnacle when it obviously just had a cancellation due to betting lines. Anyone who actually fixed a match would know that this scenario would turn out just like last, and it would be a fruitless effort. Though, I suppose there isn't any reason to think that they don't use multiple sites, right? If all of the matches get voided because of strange betting lines, then it costs the better nothing and they get to damage people's reputations! Brilliant! It just requires some confirmed $ | ||
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SatedSC2
England3012 Posts
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
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SinCitta
Germany2127 Posts
On January 24 2015 01:33 Hider wrote: Hmm, almost all Sc2 bets are offline atm. WTF is going on? https://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/E Sports/SC2 GSL/1/Lines.aspx Don't know how it's handled normally, but I would take down all SC2 bets until investigations complete. | ||
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ZAiNs
United Kingdom6525 Posts
On January 24 2015 01:40 SatedSC2 wrote: This is looking more and more like eSports betting is just a stupidly volatile market and Pinnacle are playing it safe... Volatile as of 3 days ago. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9433 Posts
On January 24 2015 01:44 SinCitta wrote: Don't know how it's handled normally, but I would take down all SC2 bets until investigations complete. Not all games are odds. Like Ty vs Bomber G1 is on, but G2 is off. It's really weird. | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On January 24 2015 01:33 Hider wrote: Hmm, almost all Sc2 bets are offline atm. WTF is going on? https://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/E Sports/SC2 GSL/1/Lines.aspx Probably part of their normal investigation process. Or all the lines are getting crazy now. | ||
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