EPT
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Returning for its 4th installment, Dragon Invitational has a slightly different theme this time around. The last 2 tournaments each had 7 zergs in the bracket, which was certainly enjoyable for Swarm lovers but less so for lovers of diversity. Here we only have 4 invited zergs compared to 6 terrans and 6 protosses. Per usual the level of competition is high enough to be mistaken for a premier event. Koreans of all sorts and sizes have been invited, from WCS EU champion StarDust to that terran with the name who won that thing one time. Will Life double dip the chip, ignoring all established rules of propriety? Will San dash his hopes and continue his post-Assembly hot streak? Can that terran win another thing? Stay tuned for another exciting episode of...Dragon Invitational!
StarTale.
Life vs MVP.
CenterNature gave the lion a chasm of teeth and the bull a set of horns, but Center would gladly trade both of them for a decent draw. TvZ has always been his worst matchup and after a brief spark of insight last summer, Center has returned to his dismal ways. He is 10-17 (37.04%) over the last 4 months, a record that merely sounds mediocre until one actually looks at his foes. He’s only won 4 sets during that period, all of them against low-level opponents or virtual unknowns. His last victory against a notable player, an awfully generous description for SonGDuri, happened in January. Truly this is the darkest timeline for our hero.
Thanks to a cringeworthy Code A performance, Life finds himself twiddling his thumbs during an especially arid stretch of the StarCraft season. Things are rapidly wrapping out in Korea for 2014. Code S begins in 2 days and ends on October 4th; KeSPA Cup is scheduled for September 12th, with qualifiers expected near the end of August; if tradition holds, the 2014-2015 Proleague season will boot up again sometime in December. Besides Destiny I, this is probably the only major event Life will play in for the next 3 weeks. And that’s quite scary on reflection. In all likelihood Life sees this tournament as his only guaranteed source of revenue for the foreseeable future. It is bad enough the MVP Terran has to face the bugbear of his existence, except now that peeve has a vested interest in using Center’s face as a mop.
Life 2 - 0 Center
StarTale.
Curious vs Spider.
DaisySix months ago, the outcome would have been obvious. Curious had hit the zenith of his HotS career, looking more like a solid Ro16 competitor instead of Code S security guard. He was beating Maru, sOs and soO in BoX series, hitting the top 4 of every qualifier he attended, and generally being a pain in the ass for everyone in Korea. Meanwhile Daisy was teamless and toiling away in the boondocks of the European tournament scene. The switch from ESC to Western Wolves had done little to improve his overall results, and now he was left adrift in the wind. Compared to other expatriates like Hyun and ForGG, Daisy’s gamble to leave Korea had not paid off at all. 2 years away and what did he get in return? A couple of online wins, scattered Ro16 showings at various MLG and IEM events, and a quarterfinals appearance at IEM Katowice.
Is it fair to say the shoe is now on the other foot? Shortly after an impressive run in the IEM Cologne qualifier, the Curious train hit some rocky terrain and has been missing ever since. Blink and you would’ve missed his disappearing act between WCS Season 1 and Season 2: a strong opening in Code S Ro32 turned into an ignoble collapse in the Ro16, shortly followed by a fast exit in the Code A group stages. Since then Curious has done nothing significant. Meanwhile, Daisy is undergoing a minor resurrection on Wayi Spider. The move to China has resulted in the best results of his career, including winning TeSL Season 4 in a 4-0 rout over Sen. While his TeSL record is massively inflated by the tin soldiers he knocks down every week, Daisy has shown small steps of improvement outside of Chinese events. Nevertheless I can't reasonably treat Curious' failures and Daisy's triumphs as if they are occurring on the same plane. Although Daisy is playing exceptionally well, Curious is losing to competitors that would demolish the Chinese scene.
Curious 2 - 1 Daisy
Dignitas.
Seed vs StarTale.HackOnce dismissed as a hopeless cause, Seed has climbed his way up from “ha, this guy won a GSL” to “sometimes you warm my coal black heart” and now approaches “respectable invite”. Perhaps the rising tide of protoss hegemony has lifted his ship, or Seed repaired the leaks that made him so unstable after his GSL win. Either way his games at MLG Anaheim were an encouraging sign. Despite finishing outside of top 8 Seed did better than expected, with victories over Jaedong and HerO and some hard-fought losses against RagnaroK and DRG. Combined with his good showings at Lone Star Clash and WCS America, Seed is slowly regaining a position of respect again.
When Bomber chose to leave StarTale for a new pair of wings and a kickass jacket, Hack was left as the sole good terran on StarTale. He was left to do the impossible: be everything Bomber was to the team and compensate for the hobbled protoss lineup. That would have required a miraculous improvement in form without a proper catalyst, and it was no surprise that said change never happened. Besides a moderately entertaining run in GSL Global Championship, Hack appears to be the same player he was a year ago. He plays well enough to take out your average Code B opponent, puts on a good show when there is no pressure, and looks awfully sketchy when he needs to be clutch. To top it off, Hack hasn’t won against a Korean protoss in his last 7 series.
Seed 2 -1 Hack
KeeN vs RagnaroKHa ha! Alliteration!
MLG Anaheim was a litmus test for several attendants. It conclusively proved Trap was an elite player instead of a poser coasting on gimmicky PvZ builds; it showed Seed could reclaim his spot as a solid macro Protoss with more time; it revealed that Polt, for all his triumphs in WCS America, was grievously mortal when paired against the Korean cream of the crop.
For RagnaroK, it announced that his slow period of gestation was over. Unlike his contemporaries from the online era, he never exploded into a champion or tapered off into complete irrelevance. Instead his rate of progress was akin to a glacier moving across the landscape. Whether it was a 7-2 record in the last GSTL season, bodyslamming TaeJa and HerO in King of the Iron showmatches, or making short detours into Code S, RagnaroK left the impression that he still had room to improve. Obviously, getting 5th-6th placing at a premier tournament isn’t necessarily a ticket to stardom. Too many players have gotten a taste of glory only to revert to mediocre red shirts. We will have to wait until HK eSports Tournament to confirm he is the real deal.
KeeN has felt a little shapeless prior to this Dragon Invitational. Back when he was considered one of the best up-and-coming terrans, the statement counted as a veiled compliment: KeeN was so solid in all matchups that he didn’t particularly stand out in any of them. Today it’s a sign of mediocrity. He did well at MLG Anaheim, getting into top 16, but he largely dodged the Korean contingent through the losers’ bracket. KeeN’s only notable wins were against Heart and Revival, not exactly a run with much panache. On the other side of the world, his efforts have largely gone in vain. KeeN has yet to reenter Code A after falling out in Season 1 of this year, and in spite of his best attempts he finished Proleague with a 4-10 record. By no means is KeeN incapable of winning, but RagnaroK ought to be favored for his more consistent results.
KeeN 1 - 2 RagnaroK
CMStorm.
Revival vs mYi.StarDustIt is the best of times and it is the worst of times. It is the age of wisdom and it is the age of foolishness. It is an era when StarDust can sweep San in the WCS Europe final and get knocked out of an invitational by DeMusliM. Truly this is a time of seesaws and reversals. Can we reasonably tease out a conclusion for this match, knowing StarDust could go full Death Star in the good and the bad sense?
Well, first things first: neither looks particularly stunning in the matchup right now. StarDust had the matchup on lock at MLG Anaheim, winning every series except against viOLet, and has largely continued that dominance. If we remove Sacsri’s soul ownage from this period, StarDust has only lost 3 Bo3s in the last 2 months. Meanwhile, it’s hard to determine Revival’s condition considering all the stats-padding against foreigners. Looking exclusively at matches against big opponents, he’s lost almost all of them with the exception of Seed at IEM Shenzhen. Additionally he lost to Stork twice in The Big One group stage and well, come on Revival. Stork may have been unstoppable in the months preceding HomeStory Cup, but he certainly looks human in PvZ now.
Therefore I hesitantly give StarDust the edge. Knowing my luck, the universe might intervene just to spite this prediction.
Revival 1 - 2 StarDust
yoeFW.
San vs mYi.jjakjiManZenith has endured a rather crazy couple of months. After pimp slapping Dear around to win Assembly Winter 2014, he can’t help but meet success around every corner. A visit to the semifinals of WCS Europe Season 1, retracing his steps for GSL Global Championship, taking silver in WCS Season 2, another semifinals appearance at Dreamhack Summer…the man is literally swimming in dollar bills. However his PvT doesn’t necessarily reflect that streak. He is only 25-19 (56.82%) since Assembly Winter, an oddly low winrate considering his status. San fans have little reason to worry though. His history is peppered with wins versus TaeJa, INnoVation, Maru, and MMA.
Similar to Revival, jjakji’s immersion in the European scene has puffed up his TvP record. To no one’s surprise, he dominates anyone who is non-Korean: he is 28-8 (77.78%) against foreigners since April. When it comes to facing protosses on his level, jjakji’s record is far more humble. Through the same time period he is 16-21 (43.24%) and has lost the last 6 BoX series. Looking more closely jjakji is only 3-9 (25.00%) in Bo3+ matches and among his victories (against Patience, First, and Hurricane), Patience and First have handily beaten him in rematches. Going by the evidence, jjakji will have a hard time overcoming San.
San 2 -1 jjakji
ROOT_
SuperNova vs MVP_YongHwaSuperNova’s career has been one long story of tempered expectations. We have heard ceaseless praise over his strategic ingenuity, and his ability to resist obscurity is commendable for a terran that isn’t called TaeJa, Maru, or INnoVation. Yet this is an awful lot of respect for someone whose greatest accomplishment is winning a 16 man invitational with only 1 Korean opponent – 2 years ago. Besides Campus Party Europe, SuperNova has contented himself with being a solid GSL presence. Since his breakout Code A run he’s settled into the gatekeeper role, occasionally making the Ro8 but generally failing before the Ro16.
Then again he’s facing YongHwa, the king of disappointment. The disparity between who he could be and who he’s become is the cruelest joke in StarCraft history. Once expected to be the successor to MC, YongHwa has become the equivalent of that 25-year-old graduate who still goes to college frat parties: everyone knows him and seriously questions why he hasn’t grown up yet. If anything YongHwa seems to have receded in the last few months. His Code A group was an unmitigated disaster in terms of skill displayed and Proleague has been quite cruel to him. One can only hope he will regain a winning mindset on MVP, but the acclimation will take some time to kick in.
Of course my former enthusiasm for YongHwa’s career has curdled into insane, rabid hatred so my prediction might be a bit biased.
SuperNova 2-0 YongHwa (hopefully to be followed by many tears)
aLive vs MVP_SuperBack when aLive was a relevant and productive member of society, he had one of the best TvPs in the world. While his world-class TvT gained notoriety via wins against the best in the world and his TvZ proved more variable than a lottery machine, he quietly recorded one of the best TvP runs in history during early 2012. Between February 14th and May 22nd Alive went 61-23 (72.62%) in matches and 28-6 (82.35%) in sets. Such a record was impressive prima facie and even better considered he was beating the likes of MC, PartinG, Seed and Squirtle. Today he is a pale imitation of that monster. Although he has barely played TvP this year, the available games show someone out of sync with the current metagame. aLive appears stuck between the parade-push mentality of his glory days and waiting until the late game for mass ghosts; neither are giving him much success.
Super was considered good enough to retain for MVP’s rebuilding phase, and a quick look at his history shows this was a sound investment. On his way to a 14-12 Proleague record (the only MVP player with a positive W/L ratio) Super snatched victories from a murderer’s row of great opponents: Zest, Soulkey, Flash, Maru, herO, Trap, and Solar all fell by his hand. Unfortunately he hasn’t translated that success into a prime GSL spot. Like many Bo1 masters, the MVP Protoss appears befuddled by the peculiarities of the Bo3 format. Outside of Code A qualifiers he can’t put 2 wins together to save his life; recently he lost to sOs and Reality during the group stage, marking the third straight time he’s failed to advance to Code S. Against a more seasoned adversary this would be cause for worry, but aLive ought to be a cakewalk as long as Super doesn’t make any major errors.
aLive 0 - 2 Super
