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How come SC2 results are so unpredictable? - Page 2

Forum Index > SC2 General
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FeyFey
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany10114 Posts
December 11 2013 13:27 GMT
#21
Too many options in the beginning and to little in the lategame. That way the early game advantage can go to everyone, while the lategame doesn't allow to change up much. It is only a small factor for me and if players aren't equally strong an early game advantage easily turns around.
Also too many tournaments. I find it rather consistent that the current "will win everything" Star goes everywhere and you can literally see the player burn out due to the traveling and missing training while everyone adapts to him.

marvellosity pointed out the most important point I would say though. Especially since in Sc2 tournaments you can dodge opponents and player styles are often weak or strong against different opponents.
Taronar
Profile Joined December 2011
Netherlands177 Posts
December 11 2013 13:28 GMT
#22
- Is the skill level required for Starcraft 2 too low?
No, the amount of skill required is perfectly fine. However the amount of units required is to much. Currently any protoss can build a deathball and a move the map. If your terran opponent did not scout the HT's in that ball you can basicly auto-gg the game. I play protoss myself, unless I die to earlygame pressure (I play defensive econ) I will almost always outmacro my opponent. This because Protoss can easily defend and gives Terran a hardtime microing it's units in order to deal damage. While good macro can give you a clear edge, micro has a very small impact on the game.

For example. This for the otherside of things. A Protoss opens with ProxyOracle harrass. As soon as the Missle Turret finishes the Oracle harrasment requires insane micro to avoid a clear kill on it. What does it give the Protoss? Maybe 1 or 2 SCV kills. Stupid suggestion: remove autoattack on static defense, giving the Terran extra APM / attention to defend against Oracle, give Oracle extra opportunity to deal damage / harras even in lategame. There are so much more things that could be changed to make the game more micro-intensive and thus more rewarding to the better player.



- Do the players that win tournaments relax too much after the win?
No. We have so little insight in this, how can we make up a subject for this.

- Are the random elements of the game (fog of war) the reason for random results?
How would the game be when there is no fog of war. I think it would be intresting to experiment with the game like that. Back when I played RA2 a lot there was no fog of war, but you could build a special building to block your enemy's vision once scouted.


- Is the skill level of the top players too even because of the same training regimes?
No idea. Not enough intel
SKT1.Rain | SKT1.PartinG | Liquid TaeJa | Startale Life
mihajovics
Profile Joined April 2011
179 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-11 13:38:11
December 11 2013 13:29 GMT
#23
On December 11 2013 21:47 marvellosity wrote:
You'll probably get a load of different responses about the nature of the game, but in part it's simply because series are so short. BO3s and BO5s are really incredibly volatile things.

It's kinda like playing only one set in tennis.

In chess, you get tournaments where it's all play all (usually) so everyone has the whole tournament to perform. In FIDE's short knockout world championships in the 90s and 2000s, there were a lot of "random" chess 'world champions' - Khalifman, Ponamariov, Khazimdzhanov (spelling) - random, quite strong GMs, but not actually world class. These tournaments are a pretty good equivalent of how SC2 tournaments are structured tbh, and the outcome is STILL really unpredictable, even though chess is a game of perfect information/much less (if any) luck.



Ponomariov not world class??? what are you smoking???
he was an absolute prodigy with easily the potential to become the undisputed world champion, so sad that FIDE and Kasparov screw him over this bad, he could never recover psychologically.

otherwise, I agree in principle, yet BW had the same system as SC2 and there were definitely a dominance of the top 3 (flash-jaedong-bisu), so it's probably a combination of the volatile nature of knock out tournaments and not enough depth / too much randomness in the game itself.

EDIT: there are about 600 million people who know how to play chess, around 200 million who actively play it online, 2 million registered, competitive players... so being in the top 100 at any time in your career is definitely world class status I would say, and Ponomariov has been there constantly for the past 10 years
jdsowa
Profile Joined March 2011
405 Posts
December 11 2013 13:33 GMT
#24
The game has so much turnover because it's a macro game with a replay system + millions of VODs/streams/tourneys. There is a giant pool of adequately skilled Korean players. The really top players are just the ones who have found temporary macro/timing exploits. Inevitably the community catches up to what they are doing and it's back to the drawing board for them.

I have a feeling that this will be the last major 1v1 RTS. Balance games for 4v4 team play and it will be less about technical exploitations and more about instinctual decision making and cooperation.
shadymmj
Profile Joined June 2010
1906 Posts
December 11 2013 13:34 GMT
#25
On December 11 2013 21:57 qotsager wrote:
you mean the skill ceiling, right? because the skill required to play chess is pretty low, it takes a bit to be good at it though.
and i don't think so. i don't think any player is close to playing perfectly. so give it some time.


well, it takes not just "a bit", but a shitload of effort to get good at chess, and even then not just anyone can do it. years and years of dedication to get to CM level, which is the lowest class, maybe like code B. well, chess has no mechanics, so why is it so hard? exactly the thing that sc2 doesn't have: strategic depth.
There is no such thing is "e-sports". There is Brood War, and then there is crap for nerds.
arie3000
Profile Joined October 2011
153 Posts
December 11 2013 13:36 GMT
#26
First of all, there is great variance even in other sports. This year, a much lower team in the Champions League beat Barcelona 2-0, at the World Cup a few years ago, Serbia beat Germany. So randomness just kinda 'happens'.

Furthermore, Starcraft is an individual sport, meaning that having an off-day, bad sleep, or whatever has a BIG influence. As a team there can be compensation for this, but it is much more pronounced in individual sports. Starcraft is also incredibly unforgiving - even a top-tier tennis player will not lose a match because of a double-fault, but a Starcraft player WILL lose a match due to a lowered supply depot, unseen banelings, unscouted pylon, missed dropships, etc etc.

These factors kinda determine the 'randomness' of the game. However, I think that the amount of randomness is not that great. Sure, you had Hitman beating Scarlett, but Maru, Bomber SoS and Dear are just really very good players. Maybe you don't know them that well because they're Korean, but people like Bomber actually have quite a legacy...
Topdoller
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom3860 Posts
December 11 2013 13:37 GMT
#27
On December 11 2013 21:46 papaz wrote:
My opinions:

- Depth of micro is not enough

- Whoever wins the first big fight tend to win the game - comebacks are virtually non existent

- Units die too fast so it doesn't matter if you are Flash/Jaedong/Soulkey. If you happen to not pay attention for a sec enough units can be killed so that you more or less already have lost

- Games reach max limits very fast. Macro is easy and not rewarding so players like Flash "can't outmacro" the opponent just as easy because the difference between the worst pro and best pro at macro isn't that big


So I guess it's a combination of not enough depth and the volalite units vs too much dps.



I would go with the above.

Any player making it to the last 4 is having a good tournament imho. The best players regularly get there ie Taeja, Life, Dear so skill does matter its just the days of 1 player dominating are long gone
qotsager
Profile Joined March 2012
Germany585 Posts
December 11 2013 13:38 GMT
#28
On December 11 2013 22:34 shadymmj wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 11 2013 21:57 qotsager wrote:
you mean the skill ceiling, right? because the skill required to play chess is pretty low, it takes a bit to be good at it though.
and i don't think so. i don't think any player is close to playing perfectly. so give it some time.


well, it takes not just "a bit", but a shitload of effort to get good at chess, and even then not just anyone can do it. years and years of dedication to get to CM level, which is the lowest class, maybe like code B. well, chess has no mechanics, so why is it so hard? exactly the thing that sc2 doesn't have: strategic depth.


i was obviously exaggerating. will put in winking smiley next time.
***Official ABL Winner 2013***
BrieFanFiction
Profile Blog Joined May 2013
United States167 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-11 13:42:17
December 11 2013 13:40 GMT
#29
Look, let me bring some common sense into this thread. I have a 71% accuracy rating on Liquibets, and I am FAR from the best at picking winners. In fact when I started using Liquibet I would randomly pick broodwar players and even SC2 players I hadn't heard of, so nowadays my SC2 accuracy rating is probably closer to ~80%. 80% predictability is not low in my opinion (especially since I am not up on all the players quirks, like say Apollo is). We need to get some Liquibet masters in here to explain how SC2 winners are actually pretty predictable.

Have you ever asked yourself if the winners are hard for you to predict because you don't know enough about the players, game, and maps?

Who is the most accurate SC2 Liquibetter and what is their accuracy percentage? Because in my mind, that is a good way to determine how predictable this game is. I'll bet they're shooting 90%+

edit: And stop talking about always knowing who will win a tournament as if it would be a good thing.
laegoose
Profile Joined June 2010
Russian Federation325 Posts
December 11 2013 13:42 GMT
#30
In chess they play bo12 finals on the exact same map LOL.
grs
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Germany2339 Posts
December 11 2013 13:43 GMT
#31
This thread hovers between flamebait and starting the usual BW > SC2 bullshit-bingo. Your thesis, that SC2 has unpredictable results is just a general unsolidified claim, to start a pointles discussion. Can we just finally let that go?
Psychobabas
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
2531 Posts
December 11 2013 13:44 GMT
#32
- Is the skill level required for Starcraft 2 too low?

Yes, there is nothing that a top progamer can do that cant be done by a masters league player. Allins are also way too strong in this game.

The above just was unimaginable in Brood War.
shadymmj
Profile Joined June 2010
1906 Posts
December 11 2013 13:45 GMT
#33
Well, you chose to interpret unpredictability in a negative way, the OP didn't force you to...
There is no such thing is "e-sports". There is Brood War, and then there is crap for nerds.
Fus
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1112 Posts
December 11 2013 13:45 GMT
#34
I disagree that starcraft has that unpredictable results. But the game is balanced around the fact that scouting is not available all the time and that creates some randomness,.
NaNiwa | Innovation | Flash | DeMuslim ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
December 11 2013 13:52 GMT
#35
I don't care what is the reason and I am very happy that noone seems to be sure about it. Beause that way, noone can find the reason and break it, because I like the "volatility" exactl how it is. There are so many surprises, so much unexpected is happening every tournament. It makes it so much more fun.

Yes, it's different than many convenctional sports. Why do so many people always care about conventional sports? Why should SC2 be like them? If you want to watch physical sport, go and watch one, there is an endless amoutn of content for you to watch.
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
DifuntO
Profile Joined November 2011
Greece2376 Posts
December 11 2013 13:53 GMT
#36
-Because there are a lot of factors affecting the result of a match other than skill.

-A lot of Koreans have almost reached the skill ceiling and the only way to achieve dominance for long periods of time is by keep changing your strategy.

-Don't bring up tennis or chess, these are perfectly balanced and skill is all that matters.You can play your "standard macro" in tennis(yeah I know...) and win because you are better but you can't do that in sc2.
All I do is Stim.
Djagulingu
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Germany3605 Posts
December 11 2013 13:56 GMT
#37
Allins may be too strong.
"windows bash is a steaming heap of shit" tofucake
Drake
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany6146 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-11 14:14:58
December 11 2013 14:04 GMT
#38
oh god ... a thread full of whiners and "blizzard so bad sc2 so bad" posts god save us all

for my part, i always see the same guys in top and simply winning if they hit their good matchup and loosing if they hit their bad matchup (like inno just lose if he hits a tvt ... simply as that)

also some of the players are extremly close what skill means, so its always 3-2 2-3 2-3 3-2 etc not meaning its to easy they simply very similar ...

as for alot wcs tournaments, the players who won the first really seems to take it easier the next tournaments, because of the points they already gained, while the others trained even harder ... which makes it pretty obvious ...

in the main tournaments of the year, we have what ? jaedong 5 times 2nd now winning ? taeja winning like so many of them ? i really see the same big names who train always on the top ...

the only difference to broodwar is, that there are simply so much more players in the pool of that caliber and we have not even reached the 3rd add on ...
you guys EVER watched broodwar in the early years ? you act like we have every month another top20 and thats not the fact, and in broodwar the guys from 2002 was all retired or bad in 2005 ... and same for 2008 ... themarine or gorush was fast bad and then there was iloveoov and nada and later we had savior (aka idiot you throw your career away) and then jaedong and flash ... it wasnt always the same ...

AALSO we had alot t and z there and only 8 good protoss guys and they did not win much so even the win balance for races is better in sc2 ..

everything nowadays is so hyped about the past which WASNT always blue and clear ...
and all the whines are just incredible hard to read every week again

i know some people having an 85+% accuracy for win betting in tournaments ... if its so unpredictable why can they ? because it simply isnt if you know more then the names and the last games ... you have to know more details, you cant predict soccer games just by knowing results too you need to know who is injured what form etc

On December 11 2013 22:44 Psychobabas wrote:
- Is the skill level required for Starcraft 2 too low?

Yes, there is nothing that a top progamer can do that cant be done by a masters league player. Allins are also way too strong in this game.

The above just was unimaginable in Brood War.


oh thank god i take this bad post as example: like i ever saw a top grandmaster would ever lose in a tournament bo5 etc to a master ... it will happen like NEVER EVER ... the skill gap between a high master and a high grandmaster is so extremly high its like bronce vs diamond ...

and all ins make game fun and comes to alot good games and you tell me that wasnt possible in sc1 ? in broodwar ?

dude i was a B- in broodwar on iccup who only went b- by winning a god damn tournament (c+ average) and i did win clanwars vs A- and even i beat a god damn 73-5 A+ progamer in a god damn tournament on iccup ... by fuckn 4pooling him ...
i did dt rush, dt sair rushs, offgate dragons, offgate zealots, and won SO many games on bwcl vs A- B+ by only cheesing ... sorry i even tell you that cheesing in broodwar was easier then it is in sc2, because when you did it right in broodwar there was NO coming back for the better player possible

... as i said, looking in the past and see the blue sky, not mentioning the bombers flying trough it

also in bw there was like a handfull of tournaments a year for the progamers and that was it ... and in proleagues they had nearly all 40-60% winratios which was not really predictable ... there are just 10 times as much tournaments now

edit: sry if i offend anyone with this long post i am just so tired of all the whine threads every week again and again
Nb.Drake / CoL_Drake / Original Joined TL.net Tuesday, 15th of March 2005
JonIrenicus
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Italy602 Posts
December 11 2013 14:04 GMT
#39
--- Nuked ---
Ctone23
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States1839 Posts
December 11 2013 14:08 GMT
#40
I think it's a good thing that there is a group of players that are capable of winning any tournament. The game is so dynamic and fast that it creates spectacular play that ranges from brilliant to head-scratching, but you get head-scratching moments in any sport, in my opinion.

Taeja has won 5 tournaments this year, including the last 3 major ones he has been to. Jaedong was near the top all of 2013, could have easily won 4-5 tournaments. So, I think there is a degree of predictability already.

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