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On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
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Why does it say "Semi-Finals" for Dear vs Maru, and "Quarter-Finals" for Soo vs Soulkey?
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United States23455 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality.
Fuck it we're done. He's got fucking numbers on his side. Imba shit please nerf
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On October 09 2013 12:39 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:37 Whatson wrote:
Lol you're forgetting opterown is an MKP fan..his definition of dominance is pretty limited compared to most people's and you're an idiot who bashes players he doesn't like. what difference does that or my fandom make?
Doesn't really make a difference?
Of course I bash players I don't like and defend those that I do like.
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United States23455 Posts
Op when I was making fun of prime I was just having some friendly banter and still being bitter about a certain Las Vegas GSTL final.
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On October 09 2013 12:42 Buddy168 wrote:
SO whose that guy?
cmon. you know.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
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On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality. Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality. Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Updated the probabilities. Should be more or less correct. Forgot the combination of tournament result possibilities.
I'd have to write a script to use aligulac and their historical winrates and then write a script to do all the multiplying.
I'm not THAT bored.
Caveat: the comparison only works if their winrates and chances of winning are the same. There is more than just winrates that go into chances of winning a tournament, such as the game's balance and metagame, condition of players, stress, choke likelihood, and so many other things impossible to calculate.
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United States23455 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality. Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
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opterown
Australia54785 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher
if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:
exactly 1/3 tournaments = 3*x*(1-x)^2
exactly 2/6 tournamnets = 6C2*2^2*(1-x)^4
for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament
that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament
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On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality. Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise. Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
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opterown
Australia54785 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality. Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise. Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
well half the time he says it doesn't matter and the other half he does, so let's say it matters 50% of the time
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United States23455 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality. Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise. Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion. It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
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uhm 3-2 bet against maru ?
i don`t know why , but somehow it got a strange feeling when betting against maru .it is not like this "uhm haha that idiot bet against mvp " feeling but it somehow goes twards that direction , that guy simply knows how to win games , its not always nice to watch , but maru gets the job done )
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:52 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning: exactly 1/3 tournaments = 3*x*(1-x)^2 exactly 2/6 tournamnets = 6C2*2^2*(1-x)^4 for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament
I made a mistake and did it again, I forgot the combination of tournament results, so basically x3 and x15 for those numbers respectively.
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On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 thank you mathematics and rationality. Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise. Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion. It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format. I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
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opterown
Australia54785 Posts
On October 09 2013 12:55 lichter wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 12:52 opterown wrote:On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3 i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning: exactly 1/3 tournaments = 3*x*(1-x)^2 exactly 2/6 tournamnets = 6C2*2^2*(1-x)^4 for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament I made a mistake and did it again, I forgot the combination of tournament results, so basically x3 and x15 for those numbers respectively.
even so i think you're underplaying e.g. a 'bonjwa' would not have a 70% chance of getting out of the RO32, it 'should' be quite a bit higher. this is because we're not talking any old player winning tournaments, but a player considered 'bonjwa-worthy'
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EPT
