In almost any major individual tournament, there's bound to be a player that you feel is kind of good but also kind of out of his depth. The guy that seems to get by through a series of flukes, bracket luck and uncharacteristic mistakes from his opponents. It's the guy that triumphs over an elite field of players while God himself is eliminated. He makes you wonder whether your hunch is wrong and he's actually championship quality, or if he's bound to get exposed before it's all over.
It is true that Dear is a largely unaccomplished player with no championships or even top four finishes before this tournament, but he makes up for his thin resume with what he's accomplished in Proleague and the quality of his play. Let's put it this way: without Dear, STX does not win Proleague. Alongside Innovation, Trap and Classic toward the end, Dear was one of STX's four pillars – a player that could be relied on to always perform when he was called upon. Overshadowed by then-blazing star Innovation, Dear accumulated a 26 - 19 record that included wins over the best KeSPA had to offer.
But unlike many of Proleague's top performers, Dear's skillset isn't limited to Proleague's Best of 1-format as his run through Code S has proved. Where Proleague stars like Zest and CJ's herO have fallen short in long series, Dear is performing marvelously. Having mastered the potent combo of excellent warp-prism harassment and solid late game army control, Dear is a player that can hold his ground against anyone in a macro game. He should feel relatively comfortable playing the late-game against Maru or any other Terran. And like his souLmates Trap and Classic, he also has no qualms about throwing in an unconventional strategy into the middle of a series.
In honesty, Dear will probably remain under-appreciated even if he does move on from the Code S semifinals, but it will be another step toward rising above from the mass of good-but-not-great Proleague Protosses. Should he advance, he can take pride in the fact that he beat one of the very few Terran players to beat Rain straight-up in the late-game – the player who also happens to be the reigning WCS Korea champion. With all former STX Soul players besides Innovation being cursed with eternal anonymity, that might not be enough for Dear to build a reputation as a consistent top contender – but it's one step in that direction.
One untimely fluke does not a slump make
MaruPrime's championship run last season was as impressive as it was unexpected. It's fair to say that with Innovation still on top of the world at the time and several former champions joining in on the fun over at OSL, Maru hardly expected to make the top 4, let alone win the championship. But he did, and the road there was anything but easy. He bested one top player from each race in Symbol, Innovation and Rain, all three having at least reached the finals of OSL/GSL/WCS Korea in the past.
Up to that point, Maru had been stuck in "just another good Terran" limbo for a couple of years after debuting as a 12 year old prodigy in 2010. Winning the OSL, and beating Flash's record for youngest OSL champion of all time in the process solidified his position as a top Terran and one of the leaders of the new generation of pro-gamers.
Had Maru continued his streak of monstrous performances at the Season 2 Finals in Germany, we wouldn't be arguing about who the best player in the world is right now. Unfortunately, as has been the trend since HotS, Maru went from being on top of the world one week to being questioned as fluke the next. Maru suffered an untimely hiccup in Cologne where he promptly fell apart in the Round of 16, basically wearing a giant "INCONSISTENT PRIME TERRAN" sign around his neck. Maru would later mention he had some of those mysterious 'personal problems' (the next enteritis?) that prevented him from playing up to his abilities, but that's no excuse.
What does his collapse at the Season 2 Finals say about Maru's chances against Dear, exactly? Not much. Such a total collapse would be a worrying sign for most players, but Maru immediately got back up on his feet in this season of Code S. Though he hasn't blown anyone's socks off, he has rarely look troubled as he has trudged along to the Ro4.
All Maru showed is that he isn't invincible and will bleed like any mortal, which puts him in the company of every other player in the world. Maru's TvP is still incredibly fearsome at all stages of the game. Unlike many Terrans he doesn't rely solely on the popular SCV pull that has been the bane of Protosses everywhere recently, instead employing a wider range of tools at all stages of TvP to great efficiency. In true Prime Terran fashion he can use proxy rax to great effect, but can also play a strong late game based on ghosts. With no set timing he needs to hit, Maru is a dangerous opponent in TvP because he can attack you five minutes before or five minutes after you expect it.
Prediction
The last time Maru played a Protoss in the playoffs of a major tournament, he came in as the underdog and walked out an OSL champion. This time, he's the favorite over a player who, just like himself last season, stands a better chance than name value alone would suggest.
Dear and Maru are both players that are fine with fighting on more than one front and if possible, playing the harassment game. Both are capable of throwing in well-executed and well-controlled cheese that can be about as deadly as cheese gets.
It's hard to argue against Maru being the favorite against Dear, but if there is a Protoss player with a breadth of experience that doesn't play exclusively for the late-game but still has what it takes to survive against a player of Maru's caliber, that player would be Dear. And if Dear can shut down any proxies, should they appear in this series (which, knowing Prime Terrans, they usually do), Dear is in a great position to take the series, however close it might be.
Dear 3 - 2 Maru
Quarter-Finals: Soulkey vs.soO
by Waxangel
Condemned to Repeat the Past
There's an element of Brood War legacy to this battle between two Brood War Zergs. In the later years of BW, it happened to be the case that rather... unexpected Zergs managed to frequently take one spot in the semi-finals of major tournaments. We gave them the benefit of the doubt at the time, but perfect hindsight allowed us to declare that they were actually pretty damn lucky to have gotten that far. They were good players who made hot runs through the lower rounds, but once the final-four was played out it was clear they didn't belong in the company of the true championship contenders. They were players Zergs like Kwanro, Modesty, by.hero, Type-B, and Shine.
StarCraft 2 has provided former Brood War pros a chance to make a change in their careers, with many reaching new heights they could only have dreamed of in Brood War.Woongjin_Soulkeyis one such example, going from a Proleague-only superstar to individual league champion in the new game. In soO's case, it's uncanny how little has changed.
When soO reached the semi-finals of the Jin Air OSL back in 2011, he was the kind of player no one would be surprised to see in the Ro16, but not a player anyone expected to advance further. He might not have even been SKT's fourth best player in Proleague, but SKT couldn't live without him filling that crucial Zerg spot. "Extremely and perfectly competent" was the best way to describe him, and it was hard to tell if that was an insult or a complement.
His run to the semi-finals was considered deserved but fluky at the same time: No one could deny he played skillfully in the Ro16, but his Ro8 match ended up being a bizarre victory win over a more highly rated player in Killer, involving a controversial pause-disqualification (a KeSPA specialty). To illustrate soO's situation at the time, here's a little excerpt from our old preview ahead of his semi-final match against eventual champion JangBi: "JangBi, you’ve shattered everyone’s expectations by getting this far at all, but the hardest part of your journey is yet ahead of you (Editor’s note: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA)." Ah yes, fond memories of mocking soO even two years ago. Surely enough, JangBi administered a 3 - 0 thrashing to soO in the semis, and hardly anyone batted an eye.
Looking at soO two years later, the parallels are uncanny. He's looked solidly mid-tier in three WCG Korea Ro16 runs so far, has been an important but not particularly productive Zerg slot filler for SKT in Proleague, and generally inspires little awe and few expectations in the hearts of fans. While there weren't any referees involved in his Ro8 victory against PartinG, it was a similarly unexpected and deflating series where soO won by crushing a bunch of failed gateway attacks. Seeing soO in the semi-finals has caused more than few fans to go "Huh?" before assuming Soulkey will beat him and progress to the finals.
So, is there anything in different in 2013 that suggests soO can avoid repeating the same fate?
For one, he gets to play a ZvZ. While it's unclear as to whether Protoss or Zerg wins the "most volatile mirror" award, it's clear that ZvZ is a match-up that's fraught with upsets. Soulkey already had a close call against the unheralded Sleep this season, coming within a game of being eliminated from the tournament altogether. The semi-finals changing to a best of fives this season leaves the door even more wide open for an upset.
Also, there's no guarantee that this is is just a lucky run from soO. We have the benefit of having seen soO's entire Brood War career play out, and it's easy to say in retrospect that soO's Jin Air OSL run was just a one-off. Who's to say that this time soO isn't for real, and when he's exposed, it's going to be as an elite player and not a lucky one? After all, soO has the blessing of the prophet MajOr who looked at a young Bogus' mechanics and ladder games and declared him to be the savior of all Terrans. It took some time for Bogus to realize his potential, but eventually he was reborn as INnoVation and became the first great player of HotS. soO is the other player Major has observed closely and has heaped mountains of praise upon. Those who do not heed the words of prophecy do so at their own risk.
Some Words on Soulkey
Sadly, there's no such convenient narrative forWoongjin_Soulkey. I mean, he's the heavily favored defending champion—"Can this great player become even GREATER?" just isn't as interesting as the little guy struggling to make it (Flash fans need not apply). He does have a very compelling rivalry with arch-nemesis INnoVation, but that was torpedoed when INnoVation suffered elimination at the hands of soO earlier this tournament. Even as Woongjin Stars is falling to pieces around him, Soulkey is the only player to have preserved a spot on the team, receiving a personal sponsorship Woongjin. Heck, Soulkey might even be in a better situation now, getting to focus solely on individual leagues and potentially even foreign tournaments.
So, uh yeah. Soulkey is really damn good, probably the best Zerg in the world, and the favorite to win this match. If he wins the title, he'll be the only player to win two WCS Korea's this year, which would be pretty cool. There ya go.
Overall outlook and prediction
Soulkey played a total of nine ZvZ's in the Ro16, and you have to wonder what soO will be able to glean from those matches. Soulkey showed a variety of builds and strategies, going for early roach-bane attacks, fast spire, gasless into roach mid-game, and a bunch of other things. One notable aspect of Soulkey's Ro16 ZvZ was that his transition to roach-infestor was twice punished by Sleep's roach-hydra, forcing him to change up his approach mid-series. Another interesting game was his loss to Sleep's unorthodox mass roach-bane composition in the mid game. soO will have studied these losses and Soulkey will know soO has studied them. On the other hand, soO hasn't played a broadcasted ZvZ in about two months now, which should give him a slight upper hand in terms of preparation.
Predicting how a ZvZ will go is always a pain, given the fact that matches can end nearly instantly on one mistake. As solid as both players are most of them time, they're not immune from having momentary lapses that cost them games. Some of the most lop-sided and boring mirror series occurred when one player incorrectly analyzed the other as preferring to play macro games (MC vs. Seed anyone?), and such a scenario could easily make for a one-sided series in either player's favor.
What a hard one to pick! For what it's worth Soulkey is 20 - 8 in HotS ZvZ while soO 14 - 13, though the results are spread out over quite some time. Soulkey has also won multiple Bo5+ series, while soO is still newcomer to the championship picture. Let's go with the boring, obvious pick: Soulkey to go to the finals.
Oh hey, its the gsl prediction. Thanks for the write up, but I disagree with soulkey for some unexplainable reason. soO to 3:2 Soulkey.
I think its pretty sick that both pvz and tvz are really good match ups to watch at the moment, (at least imo) and we are guaranteed to see one or the other.
"Can this great player become even GREATER?" just isn't as interesting as the little guy struggling to make it
spoken like a true mvp antifan
Mvp became the most popular player in the world after his back broke, his wrists hurts and he could no longer feel his fingers against three of the strongest Protosses in the world.
"Can this great player become even GREATER?" just isn't as interesting as the little guy struggling to make it
spoken like a true mvp antifan
Mvp became the most popular player in the world after his back broke, his wrists hurts and he could no longer feel his fingers against three of the strongest Protosses in the world.
I hope Dear wins, even if I like Maru, because PvZ has the most possibilities to play with, not only mix but early game pushes too from both sides, and All In from both sides too in a fair way (unlike ZvT or TvP)
On October 09 2013 09:37 Darkhoarse wrote: Bah I have to root for someone from Prime. Guess Maru has to be a 2 time WCS champ.
If he wins another championship, we can start calling him a bonjwa?
If he wins the Season Finals, Blizzcon and leads Prime to GSTL glory, then we can say "if he keeps up this form, we might have to start thinking about calling him a bonjwa in a year or so".
On October 09 2013 09:37 Darkhoarse wrote: Bah I have to root for someone from Prime. Guess Maru has to be a 2 time WCS champ.
If he wins another championship, we can start calling him a bonjwa?
If he wins the Season Finals, Blizzcon and leads Prime to GSTL glory, then we can say "if he keeps up this form, we might have to start thinking about calling him a bonjwa in a year or so".
So literally impossible then since Prime isn't in GSTL.
On October 09 2013 09:37 Darkhoarse wrote: Bah I have to root for someone from Prime. Guess Maru has to be a 2 time WCS champ.
If he wins another championship, we can start calling him a bonjwa?
maybe when he wins 5
Well, you need to consider that there were 8 GSLs in 2011 when MVP got his three championships. And there are only 3 (GSL + OSL) in 2013. So MVP's 4 GSL achievement is equal to today's 2 GSL/OSL achievement.
On October 09 2013 09:37 Darkhoarse wrote: Bah I have to root for someone from Prime. Guess Maru has to be a 2 time WCS champ.
If he wins another championship, we can start calling him a bonjwa?
maybe when he wins 5
Well, you need to consider that there were 8 GSLs in 2011 when MVP got his three championships. And there are only 3 (GSL + OSL) in 2013. So MVP's 4 GSL achievement is equal to today's 2 GSL/OSL achievement.
I was just going to laugh at you but seeing as you're probably serious I'll treat your terrible suggestion seriously.
More opportunities doesn't mean that you will win more often, there's a reason only a select few players in the history of this game ever win more than one premier tournament. It's easier to win 3 GSL's in a year when there are 8 GSL's, unquestionably, however it doesn't mean that if there were 3 GSL's in a year winning one of them equals winning 3 in a world where there are x3 as many. Maru is a veteran of this scene just as much as Mvp, he had a chance to take advantage of more GSL's in 2011 and he failed to win any of them. Now that Maru is hitting his peak you could suggest that, in a world where there were 8 GSL's this year, Maru might win 3 of them. But there's no way to prove that it is the case. Now more specifically for Mvp's case, not only did he win 4 times but he played in the finals 6 times. That's twice as much as any other player(nestea x3, MCx3, MMAx3 if you include Blizzard Cup) in SC2 history. They all had the same opportunities if they were here from the start like Maru was.
Comparing achievements from different time periods is silly anyway, if there were 8 GSL's in 2012 maybe Mvp would have won another seeing as he was the only sc2 player to play in two different GSL finals in 2012.
On October 09 2013 08:50 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote:To illustrate soO's situation at the time, here's a little excerpt from our old preview ahead of his semi-final match against eventual champion JangBi: "JangBi, you’ve shattered everyone’s expectations by getting this far at all, but the hardest part of your journey is yet ahead of you (Editor’s note: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA)."
Hey, I remember that article. That was when Riptide finally explained why I had never really enjoyed watching Flash.
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
i'm on my phone and typing something out is too difficult, but i entirely disagree with how you worded your rebuttal/what your argument came from. i don't think 1/3 is equivalent to 3/9 in 'achievement', but in terms of 'dominance' or 'relevance' it's pretty similar
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
i'm on my phone and typing something out is too difficult, but i entirely disagree with how you worded your rebuttal/what your argument came from. i don't think 1/3 is equivalent to 3/9 in 'achievement', but in terms of 'dominance' or 'relevance' it's pretty similar
Well as much as people like to say WCS World < WCS Korea, honestly I see that as 1/6 still. Maru would need to win this season AND WCS world to get a look in from me as bonjwa. Same with Soulkey. Just winning either one on it's own means nothing.
Innovation looked dominant when he basically had a lot of high finishes in the big tournaments in a row. He didn't even win a WCS KR when people were super hyped.
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
i'm on my phone and typing something out is too difficult, but i entirely disagree with how you worded your rebuttal/what your argument came from. i don't think 1/3 is equivalent to 3/9 in 'achievement', but in terms of 'dominance' or 'relevance' it's pretty similar
it's one tournament no matter how you slice it, just because it lasts a few weeks longer than the old code s' doesn't change that fact. What we should look at now is how a player does at the season finals after their run in that specific WCS season. If they can do well in both then I think that shows a " level of dominance " similiar to winning multiple GSL's in 2011, and yes they are different types of tournaments but It's all we have to go on with so few seasons.
Innovation, Soulkey and Mvp both did very well in season 1 after making it to the finals of their region + making top 4 at the season finals. In season 2 Bomber did extremely well with making it to top 4 in Korea + 1st in the season finals. Maru won Korea but then bombed out of the season finals, I would say overall Bomber was more dominant for season 2 but for some reason he's not even mentioned in these discussions.
On October 09 2013 09:37 Darkhoarse wrote: Bah I have to root for someone from Prime. Guess Maru has to be a 2 time WCS champ.
If he wins another championship, we can start calling him a bonjwa?
If he wins the Season Finals, Blizzcon and leads Prime to GSTL glory, then we can say "if he keeps up this form, we might have to start thinking about calling him a bonjwa in a year or so".
So literally impossible then since Prime isn't in GSTL.
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
i'm on my phone and typing something out is too difficult, but i entirely disagree with how you worded your rebuttal/what your argument came from. i don't think 1/3 is equivalent to 3/9 in 'achievement', but in terms of 'dominance' or 'relevance' it's pretty similar
it's one tournament no matter how you slice it, just because it lasts a few weeks longer than the old code s' doesn't change that fact. What we should look at now is how a player does at the season finals after their run in that specific WCS season. If they can do well in both then I think that shows a " level of dominance " similiar to winning multiple GSL's in 2011, and yes they are different types of tournaments but It's all we have to go on with so few seasons.
Innovation, Soulkey and Mvp both did very well in season 1 after making it to the finals of their region + making top 4 at the season finals. In season 2 Bomber did extremely well with making it to top 4 in Korea + 1st in the season finals. Maru won Korea but then bombed out of the season finals, I would say overall Bomber was more dominant for season 2 but for some reason he's not even mentioned in these discussions.
hey, you're the one who says the non-KR tournaments don't mean much because they're weekend events
bomber isn't mentioned because he's fairly inconsistent and bombed out of WCS KR season 3
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
i'm on my phone and typing something out is too difficult, but i entirely disagree with how you worded your rebuttal/what your argument came from. i don't think 1/3 is equivalent to 3/9 in 'achievement', but in terms of 'dominance' or 'relevance' it's pretty similar
Well as much as people like to say WCS World < WCS Korea, honestly I see that as 1/6 still. Maru would need to win this season AND WCS world to get a look in from me as bonjwa. Same with Soulkey. Just winning either one on it's own means nothing.
Innovation looked dominant when he basically had a lot of high finishes in the big tournaments in a row. He didn't even win a WCS KR when people were super hyped.
i'm not saying maru is a bonjwa or anything close to it, just saying that 3/9 is pretty similar to 1/3 in terms of relevance/dominance
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
i'm on my phone and typing something out is too difficult, but i entirely disagree with how you worded your rebuttal/what your argument came from. i don't think 1/3 is equivalent to 3/9 in 'achievement', but in terms of 'dominance' or 'relevance' it's pretty similar
it's one tournament no matter how you slice it, just because it lasts a few weeks longer than the old code s' doesn't change that fact. What we should look at now is how a player does at the season finals after their run in that specific WCS season. If they can do well in both then I think that shows a " level of dominance " similiar to winning multiple GSL's in 2011, and yes they are different types of tournaments but It's all we have to go on with so few seasons.
Innovation, Soulkey and Mvp both did very well in season 1 after making it to the finals of their region + making top 4 at the season finals. In season 2 Bomber did extremely well with making it to top 4 in Korea + 1st in the season finals. Maru won Korea but then bombed out of the season finals, I would say overall Bomber was more dominant for season 2 but for some reason he's not even mentioned in these discussions.
hey, you're the one who says the non-KR tournaments don't mean much because they're weekend events
bomber isn't mentioned because he's fairly inconsistent and bombed out of WCS KR season 3
On October 09 2013 11:03 opterown wrote: ^ your argument hardly counters his suggestion
you know what really annoys me on the internet? when someone posts " YOU'RE WRONG! " without actually explaining why they think you're wrong.
His suggestion is stupid because you cannot simply scale tournament wins up because there are more of them. There are too many factors in sc2 to suggest that winning 1 tournament when there are 3 potential tournaments to play in equals winning 2 tournaments when there are 6 potential tournaments to play in.
i'm on my phone and typing something out is too difficult, but i entirely disagree with how you worded your rebuttal/what your argument came from. i don't think 1/3 is equivalent to 3/9 in 'achievement', but in terms of 'dominance' or 'relevance' it's pretty similar
Well as much as people like to say WCS World < WCS Korea, honestly I see that as 1/6 still. Maru would need to win this season AND WCS world to get a look in from me as bonjwa. Same with Soulkey. Just winning either one on it's own means nothing.
Innovation looked dominant when he basically had a lot of high finishes in the big tournaments in a row. He didn't even win a WCS KR when people were super hyped.
i'm not saying maru is a bonjwa or anything close to it, just saying that 3/9 is pretty similar to 1/3 in terms of relevance/dominance
I actually have to agree here. I don't think Maru is necessarily on Mvp level as far as calling someone a "bonjwa" but the 1/3 is pretty close to 3/9 as far as staying at the top of your game over time. The fact that he could be 2/3 would be incredible.
Blame Bomber falling out of season 3 on whatever reason caused him to drop out of challenger. That's what any reasonable, rational, DIE HARD STARTALE FAN (THIS GUY) does.
you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 8-9 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
On October 09 2013 12:09 Dodgin wrote: you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 7 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
And then there was Maru who made ro4 in the following season (minimum). So combine those two performances and you get something pretty spectacular. Not saying he's up to Mvp level. (Mvp went out and won MLG and WCG* and especially Blizzcon during this time.) But Maru is pretty high on the SC2 totem pole right now.
On October 09 2013 12:09 Dodgin wrote: you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 7 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
And then there was Maru who made ro4 in the following season (minimum). So combine those two performances and you get something pretty spectacular. Not saying he's up to Mvp level. (Mvp went out and won MLG and WCG* and especially Blizzcon during this time.) But Maru is pretty high on the SC2 totem pole right now.
*Idk if this is right.
Winning a season and then making top 4 the next season is definitely impressive, but It's not even comparable to what some other players have done in terms of consistency(like nestea winning two back to back). Even though there are less seasons this year, the seasons themselves are still fairly close together time wise. In fact I don't think It's any different from last year except there was a longer break between the last WoL GSL and the start of the first HotS GSL. That and there won't be a rushed 5th season.
On October 09 2013 12:09 Dodgin wrote: you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 7 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
And then there was Maru who made ro4 in the following season (minimum). So combine those two performances and you get something pretty spectacular. Not saying he's up to Mvp level. (Mvp went out and won MLG and WCG* and especially Blizzcon during this time.) But Maru is pretty high on the SC2 totem pole right now.
*Idk if this is right.
Winning a season and then making top 4 the next season is definitely impressive, but It's not even comparable to what some other players have done in terms of consistency(like nestea winning two back to back). Even though there are less seasons this year, the seasons themselves are still fairly close together time wise. In fact I don't think It's any different from last year except there was a longer break between the last WoL GSL and the start of the first HotS GSL. That and there won't be a rushed 5th season.
Yeah but comparing Nestea going back to back to this is strange to me. I mean, the level of competition and depth of top players has increased a ton since Nestea did that, even with great players headed to other regions. So that's basically why Maru I think is up there. This might be SC2's most difficult point as far as staying at the top. I mean, look how fast Bomber fell.
On October 09 2013 12:09 Dodgin wrote: you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 7 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
And then there was Maru who made ro4 in the following season (minimum). So combine those two performances and you get something pretty spectacular. Not saying he's up to Mvp level. (Mvp went out and won MLG and WCG* and especially Blizzcon during this time.) But Maru is pretty high on the SC2 totem pole right now.
*Idk if this is right.
Winning a season and then making top 4 the next season is definitely impressive, but It's not even comparable to what some other players have done in terms of consistency(like nestea winning two back to back). Even though there are less seasons this year, the seasons themselves are still fairly close together time wise. In fact I don't think It's any different from last year except there was a longer break between the last WoL GSL and the start of the first HotS GSL. That and there won't be a rushed 5th season.
Yeah but comparing Nestea going back to back to this is strange to me. I mean, the level of competition and depth of top players has increased a ton since Nestea did that, even with great players headed to other regions. So that's basically why Maru I think is up there. This might be SC2's most difficult point as far as staying at the top. I mean, look how fast Bomber fell.
Even then, Soulkey has a better claim to consistency than Maru. 1st in season 1, top 4 in season 1 finals. top 6 in season 2. top 4(minimum) in season 3. Maru wasn't even in premier in season 1.
In comparison, Maru: Season 1 challenger league, season 2 1st, season 2 finals 9-12th, season 3 top 4(minimum).
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.
On October 09 2013 12:09 Dodgin wrote: you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 7 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
And then there was Maru who made ro4 in the following season (minimum). So combine those two performances and you get something pretty spectacular. Not saying he's up to Mvp level. (Mvp went out and won MLG and WCG* and especially Blizzcon during this time.) But Maru is pretty high on the SC2 totem pole right now.
*Idk if this is right.
Winning a season and then making top 4 the next season is definitely impressive, but It's not even comparable to what some other players have done in terms of consistency(like nestea winning two back to back). Even though there are less seasons this year, the seasons themselves are still fairly close together time wise. In fact I don't think It's any different from last year except there was a longer break between the last WoL GSL and the start of the first HotS GSL. That and there won't be a rushed 5th season.
Yeah but comparing Nestea going back to back to this is strange to me. I mean, the level of competition and depth of top players has increased a ton since Nestea did that, even with great players headed to other regions. So that's basically why Maru I think is up there. This might be SC2's most difficult point as far as staying at the top. I mean, look how fast Bomber fell.
Even then, Soulkey has a better claim to consistency than Maru. 1st in season 1, top 4 in season 1 finals. top 6 in season 2. top 4(minimum) in season 3. Maru wasn't even in premier in season 1.
In comparison, Maru: Season 1 challenger league, season 2 1st, season 2 finals 9-12th, season 3 top 4(minimum).
He was in Premier in Season 1 and got knocked out in the ro32 by Flash and Soulkey. But Soulkey is probably more consistent and overall has better performances. Maru needs to win here and have a good showing at the season finals to surpass him for me.
On October 09 2013 12:09 Dodgin wrote: you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 7 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
And then there was Maru who made ro4 in the following season (minimum). So combine those two performances and you get something pretty spectacular. Not saying he's up to Mvp level. (Mvp went out and won MLG and WCG* and especially Blizzcon during this time.) But Maru is pretty high on the SC2 totem pole right now.
*Idk if this is right.
Winning a season and then making top 4 the next season is definitely impressive, but It's not even comparable to what some other players have done in terms of consistency(like nestea winning two back to back). Even though there are less seasons this year, the seasons themselves are still fairly close together time wise. In fact I don't think It's any different from last year except there was a longer break between the last WoL GSL and the start of the first HotS GSL. That and there won't be a rushed 5th season.
Yeah but comparing Nestea going back to back to this is strange to me. I mean, the level of competition and depth of top players has increased a ton since Nestea did that, even with great players headed to other regions. So that's basically why Maru I think is up there. This might be SC2's most difficult point as far as staying at the top. I mean, look how fast Bomber fell.
Even then, Soulkey has a better claim to consistency than Maru. 1st in season 1, top 4 in season 1 finals. top 6 in season 2. top 4(minimum) in season 3. Maru wasn't even in premier in season 1.
In comparison, Maru: Season 1 challenger league, season 2 1st, season 2 finals 9-12th, season 3 top 4(minimum).
He was in Premier in Season 1 and got knocked out in the ro32 by Flash and Soulkey. But Soulkey is probably more consistent and overall has better performances. Maru needs to win here and have a good showing at the season finals to surpass him for me.
he got knocked out by soulkey only, losing 2-1 twice
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
On October 09 2013 12:09 Dodgin wrote: you guys are insane if you think winning one season that lasts 7 weeks is the same as winning three seasons that each last 4 or 5 weeks, especially when they're not all in the same little time period and spread out between january, april and august.
If you win one starleague you're not a dominant player, period. we've had champions that win their title and then fall off never to be seen as a competitor to take the tournament again. Not only in sc2 but in BW as well.
And then there was Maru who made ro4 in the following season (minimum). So combine those two performances and you get something pretty spectacular. Not saying he's up to Mvp level. (Mvp went out and won MLG and WCG* and especially Blizzcon during this time.) But Maru is pretty high on the SC2 totem pole right now.
*Idk if this is right.
Winning a season and then making top 4 the next season is definitely impressive, but It's not even comparable to what some other players have done in terms of consistency(like nestea winning two back to back). Even though there are less seasons this year, the seasons themselves are still fairly close together time wise. In fact I don't think It's any different from last year except there was a longer break between the last WoL GSL and the start of the first HotS GSL. That and there won't be a rushed 5th season.
Yeah but comparing Nestea going back to back to this is strange to me. I mean, the level of competition and depth of top players has increased a ton since Nestea did that, even with great players headed to other regions. So that's basically why Maru I think is up there. This might be SC2's most difficult point as far as staying at the top. I mean, look how fast Bomber fell.
Even then, Soulkey has a better claim to consistency than Maru. 1st in season 1, top 4 in season 1 finals. top 6 in season 2. top 4(minimum) in season 3. Maru wasn't even in premier in season 1.
In comparison, Maru: Season 1 challenger league, season 2 1st, season 2 finals 9-12th, season 3 top 4(minimum).
He was in Premier in Season 1 and got knocked out in the ro32 by Flash and Soulkey. But Soulkey is probably more consistent and overall has better performances. Maru needs to win here and have a good showing at the season finals to surpass him for me.
he got knocked out by soulkey only, losing 2-1 twice
My fault I didn't look at the matchups just who advanced from the groups.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
No one is calling Maru or soulkey a bonjwa. I think I've stated several times that I don't think they're MVP level.
On October 09 2013 12:29 Dodgin wrote: The finals will probably end up being dear vs soo anyway, making this entire conversation pointless. fucking soo.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
No one is calling Maru or soulkey a bonjwa. I think I've stated several times that I don't think they're MVP level.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
He's already done it. So you think soulkey's 2013 performance of one 1st place, one top 8 and one top 4 is " far eclipsing " Mvp's 2011 3 GSL 1st places, one 2nd place and two top 4's?
I can't tell if this is actually how you feel or you're just saying this to annoy me
I mean just in the august-november period ALONE, Mvp did better than what Soulkey has done. GSL august 1st, GSL October 2nd, GSL November 4th. It's the exact same thing, 3 seasons in a row. He also went to foreign tournaments and won those during this time period while Soulkey didn't leave Korea once.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
No one is calling Maru or soulkey a bonjwa. I think I've stated several times that I don't think they're MVP level.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
He's already done it. So you think soulkey's 2013 performance of one 1st place, one top 8 and one top 4 is " far eclipsing " Mvp's 2011 3 GSL 1st places, one 2nd place and two top 4's?
I can't tell if this is actually how you feel or you're just saying this to annoy me
In your original post you put 3 wins, 3 ro4s and 3 ro8s then one of each in your follow up post. Op said if he gets those that would be more impressive.
But also he's a prime fan you have to forgive his mental instabilities.
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.15040976 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.014032479
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.
When soO wins GSL, Season 3, and Blizzcon can we?
I wish I had added a provision in my original proposal that it can't be soO but alas I didn't. Yes I suppose we can.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
No one is calling Maru or soulkey a bonjwa. I think I've stated several times that I don't think they're MVP level.
op town is
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
He's already done it. So you think soulkey's 2013 performance of one 1st place, one top 8 and one top 4 is " far eclipsing " Mvp's 2011 3 GSL 1st places, one 2nd place and two top 4's?
I can't tell if this is actually how you feel or you're just saying this to annoy me
In your original post you put 3 wins, 3 ro4s and 3 ro8s then one of each in your follow up post. Op said if he gets those that would be more impressive.
But also he's a prime fan you have to forgive his mental instabilities.
The example just x3's each of his achievements because the terrible assumption is that if there are 3 GSL's in one time period and 9 GSL's in another time period, the performance in each of those 3 GSL's is equal to performing the same feat in the other time period. It's meant to show how ridiculous it is. It's not like It's literally been 12 months and there have only been 3 starleagues, the time period in question is from April to October. The WCS didn't span the entire year.
On October 09 2013 12:37 Whatson wrote: Lol you're forgetting opterown is an MKP fan..his definition of dominance is pretty limited compared to most people's
and you're an idiot who bashes players he doesn't like. what difference does that or my fandom make?
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
No one is calling Maru or soulkey a bonjwa. I think I've stated several times that I don't think they're MVP level.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
He's already done it. So you think soulkey's 2013 performance of one 1st place, one top 8 and one top 4 is " far eclipsing " Mvp's 2011 3 GSL 1st places, one 2nd place and two top 4's?
I can't tell if this is actually how you feel or you're just saying this to annoy me
I mean just in the august-november period ALONE, Mvp did better than what Soulkey has done. GSL august 1st, GSL October 2nd, GSL November 4th. It's the exact same thing, 3 seasons in a row.
Whether or not Soulkey's achievements come close to eclipsing Mvp's of 2011, I still don't believe the players will be comparable. When Mvp was winning things in 2011 he looked unbeatable. The only other players at the time, prior to late 2011, who were really winning a lot still looked inferior to him. As for Soulkey, due to the higher saturation of tournaments, he's one of what, 9 so far different Koreans to win a WCS event? Not to mention the player who looked actually dominant during this period, Innovation, isn't even really being mentioned in this conversation.
In a year's time, we'll look at the last three years of SC2 and the player that will stand out the most as the most dominant will likely be Mvp, not just for his dominance in 2011, but for his continuity in being able to win shit in 2012 and 2013 too. The term "bonjwa" isn't one that can really be used in SC2, anyway.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Fuck it we're done. He's got fucking numbers on his side. Imba shit please nerf
On October 09 2013 12:37 Whatson wrote: Lol you're forgetting opterown is an MKP fan..his definition of dominance is pretty limited compared to most people's
and you're an idiot who bashes players he doesn't like. what difference does that or my fandom make?
Doesn't really make a difference? Of course I bash players I don't like and defend those that I do like.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Updated the probabilities. Should be more or less correct. Forgot the combination of tournament result possibilities.
I'd have to write a script to use aligulac and their historical winrates and then write a script to do all the multiplying.
I'm not THAT bored.
Caveat: the comparison only works if their winrates and chances of winning are the same. There is more than just winrates that go into chances of winning a tournament, such as the game's balance and metagame, condition of players, stress, choke likelihood, and so many other things impossible to calculate.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher
if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
well half the time he says it doesn't matter and the other half he does, so let's say it matters 50% of the time
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
i don`t know why , but somehow it got a strange feeling when betting against maru .it is not like this "uhm haha that idiot bet against mvp " feeling but it somehow goes twards that direction , that guy simply knows how to win games , its not always nice to watch , but maru gets the job done )
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher
if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher
if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:
for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament
that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament
I made a mistake and did it again, I forgot the combination of tournament results, so basically x3 and x15 for those numbers respectively.
even so i think you're underplaying e.g. a 'bonjwa' would not have a 70% chance of getting out of the RO32, it 'should' be quite a bit higher. this is because we're not talking any old player winning tournaments, but a player considered 'bonjwa-worthy'
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
well half the time he says it doesn't matter and the other half he does, so let's say it matters 50% of the time
Hmm 50% of a ro4 hmmm ro4 divided by two so it would turn into a ro2 (finalist) finish? Pretty sure I nailed the math/logic on that one
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote: Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.
Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher
if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:
for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament
that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament
I made a mistake and did it again, I forgot the combination of tournament results, so basically x3 and x15 for those numbers respectively.
even so i think you're underplaying e.g. a 'bonjwa' would not have a 70% chance of getting out of the RO32, it 'should' be quite a bit higher. this is because we're not talking any old player winning tournaments, but a player considered 'bonjwa-worthy'
Yeah the numbers are pure assumptions and don't really show a 'bonjwa', but it clearly shows that winning 2/6 is more difficult, at least statistically, than winning 1/3.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote: Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.
Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.
Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?
If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim
maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?
2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim
maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.
Only Five "Koreans" at season finals besides the 6 in s1
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote: Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.
Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.
On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.
Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?
If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas
Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote: Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.
Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)] (basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on) leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there
Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587 Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499
I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3
thank you mathematics and rationality.
Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait
If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.
Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.
It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.
I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.
I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.
I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?
2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.
Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.
Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote: Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.
Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.
On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote: I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.
(see how stupid this sounds)
if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though
Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.
Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?
If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas
Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!
On October 09 2013 13:05 Dodgin wrote: Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.
Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.
We still kind of need to factor in proleague I think. Don't hate me.
On October 09 2013 13:05 Dodgin wrote: Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.
Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.
We still kind of need to factor in proleague I think. Don't hate me.
factor it in in what way? as a negative to your individual league performance? The proleague results don't mean much of anything for a player(as proven by cjhero, zest and many others)
With respect, I really dont think we can say one way or another if Dear and SoO are "those guys" yet. Honestly if they lose badly today, you could make that case for them =/
On October 09 2013 09:37 Darkhoarse wrote: Bah I have to root for someone from Prime. Guess Maru has to be a 2 time WCS champ.
If he wins another championship, we can start calling him a bonjwa?
maybe when he wins 5
Well, you need to consider that there were 8 GSLs in 2011 when MVP got his three championships. And there are only 3 (GSL + OSL) in 2013. So MVP's 4 GSL achievement is equal to today's 2 GSL/OSL achievement.
I was just going to laugh at you but seeing as you're probably serious I'll treat your terrible suggestion seriously.
I'm sure Mr Chae is hoping for a Maru vs Soulkey finals, it would be great to have the two winners of the previous seasons square off in the finals. On the other hand we could have Dear vs Soo, which would be a PR disaster =/
I expect a strong performance from Maru. I think his performance in the Season 2 global finals was an anomaly. Perhaps because he is young and hasn't travelled much before, I think he's more likely to be influenced by environmental factors and plays better at home than "away". I wouldn't be surprised if he wins this season, only to bomb in the global finals again.
On October 09 2013 16:39 FuRong wrote: I'm sure Mr Chae is hoping for a Maru vs Soulkey finals, it would be great to have the two winners of the previous seasons square off in the finals. On the other hand we could have Dear vs Soo, which would be a PR disaster =/ I expect a strong performance from Maru. I think his performance in the Season 2 global finals was an anomaly. Perhaps because he is young and hasn't travelled much before, I think he's more likely to be influenced by environmental factors and plays better at home than "away". I wouldn't be surprised if he wins this season, only to bomb in the global finals again.
I don't agree with this statement. I think that he's a bonjwa in the making because he had the tenacity to improve his game after he had been 'figured out' a while ago and then rise tot he top again. Those kinds of characteristics are evident in anyone who has GODLY potential at SC2 -- which is a really hard game to play and that's why I think it matters that he was able to climb up the ranks again and put himself in a situation where he might be in the finals -- he's so young!! He has some great things destined for him!
On October 09 2013 16:39 FuRong wrote: I'm sure Mr Chae is hoping for a Maru vs Soulkey finals, it would be great to have the two winners of the previous seasons square off in the finals. On the other hand we could have Dear vs Soo, which would be a PR disaster =/ I expect a strong performance from Maru. I think his performance in the Season 2 global finals was an anomaly. Perhaps because he is young and hasn't travelled much before, I think he's more likely to be influenced by environmental factors and plays better at home than "away". I wouldn't be surprised if he wins this season, only to bomb in the global finals again.
I don't agree with this statement. I think that he's a bonjwa in the making because he had the tenacity to improve his game after he had been 'figured out' a while ago and then rise tot he top again. Those kinds of characteristics are evident in anyone who has GODLY potential at SC2 -- which is a really hard game to play and that's why I think it matters that he was able to climb up the ranks again and put himself in a situation where he might be in the finals -- he's so young!! He has some great things destined for him!
I think he will 'fall' like Innovation after the replays are released...
On October 09 2013 16:39 FuRong wrote: I'm sure Mr Chae is hoping for a Maru vs Soulkey finals, it would be great to have the two winners of the previous seasons square off in the finals. On the other hand we could have Dear vs Soo, which would be a PR disaster =/ I expect a strong performance from Maru. I think his performance in the Season 2 global finals was an anomaly. Perhaps because he is young and hasn't travelled much before, I think he's more likely to be influenced by environmental factors and plays better at home than "away". I wouldn't be surprised if he wins this season, only to bomb in the global finals again.
I don't agree with this statement. I think that he's a bonjwa in the making because he had the tenacity to improve his game after he had been 'figured out' a while ago and then rise tot he top again. Those kinds of characteristics are evident in anyone who has GODLY potential at SC2 -- which is a really hard game to play and that's why I think it matters that he was able to climb up the ranks again and put himself in a situation where he might be in the finals -- he's so young!! He has some great things destined for him!
I think he will 'fall' like Innovation after the replays are released...
they were already released for season 2 weren't they?
On October 09 2013 16:39 FuRong wrote: I'm sure Mr Chae is hoping for a Maru vs Soulkey finals, it would be great to have the two winners of the previous seasons square off in the finals. On the other hand we could have Dear vs Soo, which would be a PR disaster =/ I expect a strong performance from Maru. I think his performance in the Season 2 global finals was an anomaly. Perhaps because he is young and hasn't travelled much before, I think he's more likely to be influenced by environmental factors and plays better at home than "away". I wouldn't be surprised if he wins this season, only to bomb in the global finals again.
I don't agree with this statement. I think that he's a bonjwa in the making because he had the tenacity to improve his game after he had been 'figured out' a while ago and then rise tot he top again. Those kinds of characteristics are evident in anyone who has GODLY potential at SC2 -- which is a really hard game to play and that's why I think it matters that he was able to climb up the ranks again and put himself in a situation where he might be in the finals -- he's so young!! He has some great things destined for him!
I think you misunderstood me. I said that his (subpar) performance in the global finals (in Europe) was an anomaly, not his performance winning the GSL.
On October 09 2013 12:29 Dodgin wrote: The finals will probably end up being dear vs soo anyway, making this entire conversation pointless. fucking soo.
Somebody better pick up that phone, because he FUCKIN CALLED IT
EPT
Soul_Dear is not that guy. 
MaruPrime's championship run last season was as impressive as it was unexpected. It's fair to say that with Innovation still on top of the world at the time and several former champions joining in on the fun over at OSL, Maru hardly expected to make the top 4, let alone win the championship. But he did, and the road there was anything but easy. He bested one top player from each race in Symbol, Innovation and Rain, all three having at least reached the finals of OSL/GSL/WCS Korea in the past. 
SKT_soO.
i liked them
, want to see a Maru–Soulkey finals so bad! Season 1 champ against season 2 champ would be so sick!)
![[image loading]](http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/mind_blown.gif)
