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Code S - Semi-Finals Preview (Season 3) - Page 6

Forum Index > SC2 General
156 CommentsPost a Reply
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Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#101
On October 09 2013 12:53 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.

well half the time he says it doesn't matter and the other half he does, so let's say it matters 50% of the time

Hmm 50% of a ro4 hmmm ro4 divided by two so it would turn into a ro2 (finalist) finish? Pretty sure I nailed the math/logic on that one
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#102
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#103
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#104
jjakji is the bonjwa of my heart btw
jjakji fan
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#105
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
lichter
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#106
On October 09 2013 12:57 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:55 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3

i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher

if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:

exactly 1/3 tournaments = 3*x*(1-x)^2
exactly 2/6 tournamnets = 6C2*2^2*(1-x)^4

for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament

that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament


I made a mistake and did it again, I forgot the combination of tournament results, so basically x3 and x15 for those numbers respectively.

even so i think you're underplaying e.g. a 'bonjwa' would not have a 70% chance of getting out of the RO32, it 'should' be quite a bit higher. this is because we're not talking any old player winning tournaments, but a player considered 'bonjwa-worthy'


Yeah the numbers are pure assumptions and don't really show a 'bonjwa', but it clearly shows that winning 2/6 is more difficult, at least statistically, than winning 1/3.

Of course bonjwas don't care about stats
AdministratorYOU MUST HEED MY INSTRUCTIONS TAKE OFF YOUR THIIIINGS
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:00 GMT
#107
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim

It had extended series which clearly ruins it
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:01 GMT
#108
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 09 2013 04:01 GMT
#109
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim


maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 09 2013 04:02 GMT
#110
On October 09 2013 12:59 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?


2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#111
On October 09 2013 13:01 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim


maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.

Only Five "Koreans" at season finals besides the 6 in s1
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#112
season 1 finals probably most similar to providence i reckon
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#113
On October 09 2013 13:01 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas


Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#114
On October 09 2013 13:02 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:59 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?


2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.

In theory but not in format and difficulty true
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:04 GMT
#115
On October 09 2013 13:03 opterown wrote:
season 1 finals probably most similar to providence i reckon

We have now opened the floor to discussion on the following topic: is Leenock a bonjwa?
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-09 04:06:24
October 09 2013 04:05 GMT
#116
Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.

Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:05 GMT
#117
On October 09 2013 13:03 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 13:01 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas


Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!

Some might disagree but I'm down for that
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:07 GMT
#118
On October 09 2013 13:05 Dodgin wrote:
Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.

Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.

We still kind of need to factor in proleague I think. Don't hate me.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
October 09 2013 04:08 GMT
#119
let's factor in ladder and practice games too
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:10 GMT
#120
On October 09 2013 13:08 opterown wrote:
let's factor in ladder and practice games too

What are their statistics when off racing? A bonjwa must be well rounded.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
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