• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 09:22
CEST 15:22
KST 22:22
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners7Code S Season 2 (2026): RO4 and Finals Preview12TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection7Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview5[ASL21] Finals Preview: Two Legacies21
Community News
Weekly Cups (June 8-14): Clem and Solar double, PTR tested0RSL: S6 Finals played at BlizzCon 202611Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28)10[BSL22] Non-Korean Championship from 13 to 28 June4Weekly Cups (May 25-31): Clem doubles, 2v2 circuit heads toward finale0
StarCraft 2
General
RSL: S6 Finals played at BlizzCon 2026 TL Poll: How do you feel about the 5.0.16 PTR balance changes? Weekly Cups (June 8-14): Clem and Solar double, PTR tested Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners High level ptr replays? where can I find them?
Tourneys
Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28) Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule ! Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond) GSL Code S Season 2 (2026)
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
[D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3
External Content
Mutation # 530 One For All The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 529 Opportunities Unleashed Mutation # 528 Infection Detected
Brood War
General
Where is EffOrt? BW General Discussion BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ vespene.gg — BW replays in browser Quality of life changes in BW that you will like ?
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL21] Grand Finals [BSL22] Grand Finals - Sunday 21:00 CEST Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2
Strategy
Relatively freeroll strategies Creating a full chart of Zerg builds Why doesn't anyone use restoration? Any training maps people recommend?
Other Games
General Games
Total War: Warhammer 40K Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread ZeroSpace Megathread Path of Exile Nintendo Switch Thread
Dota 2
Looking for a Dota Mentor Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
UK Politics Mega-thread [H]Internet/Gaming Cafe Tips and Tricks US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Trading/Investing Thread
Fan Clubs
The HerO Fan Club! The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books [TV/BOOK] *SPOILERS* Game of Thrones Discussion [Manga] One Piece
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion Cricket [SPORT] NBA General Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Facing Challenges in Mobile App Development
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Does Workplace Frustration D…
TrAiDoS
An Exploration of th…
waywardstrategy
I'm an arrogant trash talke…
FlaShFTW
Gauntlet SC2: A Retrospectiv…
Ctone23
Why RTS gamers make better f…
gosubay
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 9945 users

Code S - Semi-Finals Preview (Season 3) - Page 6

Forum Index > SC2 General
156 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 4 5 6 7 8 Next All
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#101
On October 09 2013 12:53 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.

well half the time he says it doesn't matter and the other half he does, so let's say it matters 50% of the time

Hmm 50% of a ro4 hmmm ro4 divided by two so it would turn into a ro2 (finalist) finish? Pretty sure I nailed the math/logic on that one
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#102
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#103
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#104
jjakji is the bonjwa of my heart btw
jjakji fan
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#105
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
lichter
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#106
On October 09 2013 12:57 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:55 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3

i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher

if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:

exactly 1/3 tournaments = 3*x*(1-x)^2
exactly 2/6 tournamnets = 6C2*2^2*(1-x)^4

for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament

that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament


I made a mistake and did it again, I forgot the combination of tournament results, so basically x3 and x15 for those numbers respectively.

even so i think you're underplaying e.g. a 'bonjwa' would not have a 70% chance of getting out of the RO32, it 'should' be quite a bit higher. this is because we're not talking any old player winning tournaments, but a player considered 'bonjwa-worthy'


Yeah the numbers are pure assumptions and don't really show a 'bonjwa', but it clearly shows that winning 2/6 is more difficult, at least statistically, than winning 1/3.

Of course bonjwas don't care about stats
AdministratorYOU MUST HEED MY INSTRUCTIONS TAKE OFF YOUR THIIIINGS
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:00 GMT
#107
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim

It had extended series which clearly ruins it
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:01 GMT
#108
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 09 2013 04:01 GMT
#109
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim


maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 09 2013 04:02 GMT
#110
On October 09 2013 12:59 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?


2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#111
On October 09 2013 13:01 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim


maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.

Only Five "Koreans" at season finals besides the 6 in s1
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#112
season 1 finals probably most similar to providence i reckon
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#113
On October 09 2013 13:01 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas


Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#114
On October 09 2013 13:02 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:59 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?


2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.

In theory but not in format and difficulty true
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:04 GMT
#115
On October 09 2013 13:03 opterown wrote:
season 1 finals probably most similar to providence i reckon

We have now opened the floor to discussion on the following topic: is Leenock a bonjwa?
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-09 04:06:24
October 09 2013 04:05 GMT
#116
Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.

Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:05 GMT
#117
On October 09 2013 13:03 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 13:01 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas


Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!

Some might disagree but I'm down for that
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:07 GMT
#118
On October 09 2013 13:05 Dodgin wrote:
Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.

Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.

We still kind of need to factor in proleague I think. Don't hate me.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
October 09 2013 04:08 GMT
#119
let's factor in ladder and practice games too
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:10 GMT
#120
On October 09 2013 13:08 opterown wrote:
let's factor in ladder and practice games too

What are their statistics when off racing? A bonjwa must be well rounded.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Prev 1 4 5 6 7 8 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
WardiTV Spring Champion…
11:00
Group Stage 2
WardiTV898
TaKeTV 320
Ryung 213
Rex163
TKL 162
IndyStarCraft 115
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Ryung 213
Rex 163
TKL 162
IndyStarCraft 115
LamboSC2 101
BRAT_OK 63
Railgan 38
SHIN 27
trigger 18
MindelVK 16
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 34481
Sea 2893
Calm 1971
Shuttle 1762
Soulkey 1328
EffOrt 1115
Mini 935
Soma 451
firebathero 422
Light 404
[ Show more ]
Rush 271
Snow 213
Zeus 190
ggaemo 170
Pusan 137
Mong 124
hero 123
Backho 85
Free 84
Hyun 81
Sharp 70
[sc1f]eonzerg 59
scan(afreeca) 53
yabsab 32
Shine 25
sorry 24
GoRush 23
Barracks 18
Sacsri 18
IntoTheRainbow 17
zelot 16
Noble 16
soO 15
Bale 15
Rock 10
Terrorterran 9
Icarus 7
Dota 2
qojqva2415
Dendi1194
XcaliburYe178
420jenkins160
Counter-Strike
olofmeister1754
zeus294
markeloff116
edward81
kRYSTAL_30
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King117
Heroes of the Storm
Trikslyr52
Other Games
Liquid`RaSZi1009
B2W.Neo836
Lowko759
hiko677
DeMusliM232
XaKoH 93
Fuzer 87
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Secondary Stream5133
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• StrangeGG 55
• iHatsuTV 10
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Jankos2444
• TFBlade657
Other Games
• WagamamaTV390
Upcoming Events
PiGosaur Cup
10h 38m
Replay Cast
19h 38m
The PondCast
1d 20h
OSC
2 days
CranKy Ducklings
2 days
GSL
3 days
Maru vs ShoWTimE
Classic vs Reynor
herO vs Lambo
Solar vs Clem
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
4 days
XuanXuan vs Jaystar
Mihu vs Messiah
eOnzErG vs Dewalt
Bonyth vs Jaystar
TerrOr vs Messiah
XuanXuan vs Mihu
eOnzErG vs Jaystar
Replay Cast
4 days
GSL
4 days
Patches Events
5 days
[ Show More ]
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
5 days
Dewalt vs Messiah
Bonyth vs Mihu
TerrOr vs XuanXuan
eOnzErG vs Messiah
Jaystar vs Mihu
Dewalt vs XuanXuan
Bonyth vs TerrOr
Replay Cast
5 days
WardiTV Weekly
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-06-15
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Heroes Pulsing #1

Ongoing

IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
Acropolis #4
CSCL: Masked Kings S4
YSL S3
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
SCTL 2026 Spring
Maestros of the Game 2
WardiTV Spring 2026
Murky Cup 2026
Heroes Pulsing #2
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1

Upcoming

CSL 2026 Summer (S21)
CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Revival: Season 6
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
HSC XXIX
Douyu Cup 2026
BCC 2026
Heroes Pulsing #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.