• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 15:04
CET 21:04
KST 05:04
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Finals Preview: Sweet Victory!12[ASL22] Ro4 Preview: Mirror Mirror6[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: Within Reach5[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy11[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5
Community News
Dark completes military service, returns to SC211[BSL23] RO16 Group Stage19Weekly Cups (Nov 2-8): herO back on top?2Weekly Cups (Oct 26 - Nov 1): MaxPax, herO, Solar win0Weekly Cups (October 19-25): Clem triples first in 5.0.175
StarCraft 2
General
Dark completes military service, returns to SC2 Greetings.. No more SC2 streamers on team liquid? Serral's getting trashed by New Catsle's Mind Weekly Cups (Nov 2-8): herO back on top?
Tourneys
Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond) Dark returns! GSL CK #7 4v4 Team Battle (Nov 19) soO & FanTaSy return! SC2 Kevin Scrim 4v4 (Nov 16) RSL goes to London! 2026 Offline Finals Nov 21-22
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
[G] How to playtest arcade maps Starcraft 2 Advance [D] the control group Simple Questions/Answers
External Content
Mutation # 552 Secret Storm The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 551 Robotic Revival Mutation # 550 Graveyard Shift
Brood War
General
Korean players' earnings Hit New All-Time High! BW General Discussion List of top players active on ShieldBattery SOOP Hosts SC1 & SC2 Event Tournament: Kevin Scrim BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/
Tourneys
[$1250] International ShieldBattery League [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [BSL23] Ro16 Group A - Saturday 21:00 CET Bisu's Team vs Shuttle's Team 2026-11-14
Strategy
Pluto's TvP 5Marine 2Medic Push Simple Questions, Simple Answers Infested Terran strategies in 2026 Nuke strategy worked in K-League 2026-11-09
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Free Space RTS Game, optimised f. Phone/Tablet etc List of Game Threads The PlayStation 5
Dota 2
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Artificial Intelligence Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Trading/Investing Thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
Fan Club Resource Thread Reynor Fan Club The Flash Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread [Manga] One Piece
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
The time I organised my…
AssyrianKing
Why I built Repalyzer (1.1.…
BlueStar
Innovate or Game Over?
TrAiDoS
ShieldBattery on Mac
Kraekkling
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 11077 users

Code S - Semi-Finals Preview (Season 3) - Page 6

Forum Index > SC2 General
156 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 4 5 6 7 8 Next All
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#101
On October 09 2013 12:53 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.

well half the time he says it doesn't matter and the other half he does, so let's say it matters 50% of the time

Hmm 50% of a ro4 hmmm ro4 divided by two so it would turn into a ro2 (finalist) finish? Pretty sure I nailed the math/logic on that one
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#102
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97277 Posts
October 09 2013 03:58 GMT
#103
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#104
jjakji is the bonjwa of my heart btw
jjakji fan
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#105
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
lichter
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
October 09 2013 03:59 GMT
#106
On October 09 2013 12:57 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:55 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3

i disagree with your assumptions - you calculate that for a 'good' player the chance of winning one tournament out of three is 5% when the absolute chance for at least one tournament should be higher

if a player's chance of winning a particular tournament is x, then the chance of that player winning:

exactly 1/3 tournaments = 3*x*(1-x)^2
exactly 2/6 tournamnets = 6C2*2^2*(1-x)^4

for the two chances to be roughly equivalent, a player needs to have about ~50% chance to win any given tournament

that's not totally unreasonable - i daresay a 'bonjwa' would be considered by the community to have a 50:50 chance to win any particular tournament


I made a mistake and did it again, I forgot the combination of tournament results, so basically x3 and x15 for those numbers respectively.

even so i think you're underplaying e.g. a 'bonjwa' would not have a 70% chance of getting out of the RO32, it 'should' be quite a bit higher. this is because we're not talking any old player winning tournaments, but a player considered 'bonjwa-worthy'


Yeah the numbers are pure assumptions and don't really show a 'bonjwa', but it clearly shows that winning 2/6 is more difficult, at least statistically, than winning 1/3.

Of course bonjwas don't care about stats
AdministratorYOU MUST HEED MY INSTRUCTIONS TAKE OFF YOUR THIIIINGS
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:00 GMT
#107
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim

It had extended series which clearly ruins it
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:01 GMT
#108
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 09 2013 04:01 GMT
#109
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim


maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 09 2013 04:02 GMT
#110
On October 09 2013 12:59 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?


2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#111
On October 09 2013 13:01 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:58 Shellshock wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

MLG Anaheim? Had a group stage and a bracket to follow up although it was double elim


maybe WCG korea? I don't think MLG anaheim = season 1 finals difficulty wise, factoring in how different the game was back then and who was good at each time. MLG only had 4 Koreans at anaheim iirc.

Only Five "Koreans" at season finals besides the 6 in s1
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54785 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#112
season 1 finals probably most similar to providence i reckon
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#113
On October 09 2013 13:01 Darkhoarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas


Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:03 GMT
#114
On October 09 2013 13:02 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 12:59 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:56 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:54 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:52 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:50 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:46 lichter wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:40 Dodgin wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:36 lichter wrote:
Since you are arguing about 1/3 ~ 2/6, I decided to do some rough/lazy calculations.

Assuming a probability of getting past a certain round of [0.75 - (Round x 0.05)]
(basically Round 1 = Round of 32, gives you a chance of .7 to get out, then .65, so on)
leading to a probability of winning .5 of the time in the finals if you get there

Winning 1/3 tournaments has a probability of 0.050136587
Winning 2/6 has a probability of 0.000935499

I probably made a mistake somewhere but it shouldn't be enough to change the outcome that winning 2/6 is more difficult than 1/3


thank you mathematics and rationality.


Actually I didn't computer the order of it happening so the numbers are different wait


If you're super bored at work could you calculate the chances of Mvp's 2011 career vs soulkey's(incomplete, but we'll just say ro4 s3 for now) gsl career? Like the chance of getting 1st, 8th then 4th in 3 seasons vs the chance of getting 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3-4, 3-4, ro32, ro32, ro32 in 9. I'm just curious how it stacks up probability wise.

Do you think SK's ro4 at season 1 finals should count? Legitimately just asking your opinion.


It can count but it would have to count against something that Mvp did to make the comparison accurate, seeing as It's not a GSL style format.

I mean I we do that MVP wins even harder because we open the door to non GSL tournaments of which he won several at the time.


I think if Soulkey had gone to international non WCS tournaments this year it would be fair to add multiple to compare against, but Soulkey only played in the season 1 finals. So I think fairly, you would find the 2011 " weekend " tournament most comparable to the season 1 finals and pit it against it.

I mean the 2011 blizzcon woul be the most comparable of mvp's tournament wins to a season finals right?


2011 blizzcon didn't have a group stage, and it only had two Korean players. Not really comparable imo.

In theory but not in format and difficulty true
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:04 GMT
#115
On October 09 2013 13:03 opterown wrote:
season 1 finals probably most similar to providence i reckon

We have now opened the floor to discussion on the following topic: is Leenock a bonjwa?
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-09 04:06:24
October 09 2013 04:05 GMT
#116
Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.

Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:05 GMT
#117
On October 09 2013 13:03 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 09 2013 13:01 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:58 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:21 Whatson wrote:
Lol there's never going to be a sc2 banjo. MVP was the closest thing to it, Life had a similar aura around him, but that's about it. The game's too volatile.


Reminds me of a Final Edit about the dominance of bonjwas no longer being possible. For the opposite reason of 'too volatile' though. It makes me wonder when this was posted though, because in the final years of Brood War Flash went on a truly undeniable rampage of utter dominance. If that wasn't dominant enough to be a bonjwa, then era of bonjwas must have been surprisingly boring, to have been so thoroughly predictable.

On October 09 2013 12:33 Darkhoarse wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:29 opterown wrote:
On October 09 2013 12:26 Dodgin wrote:
I mean if Maru winning one season this year equals winning 3 out of 9 seasons in 2011, I don't even wanna know what kind of super-bonjwa that makes soulkey. 3 1st place finishers, 3 top 8's and 3 top 4's in one year? Super bonjwa.

(see how stupid this sounds)

if soulkey does indeed get that, then i consider that far eclipsing mvp's 2011 KR performance. of course mvp had more international stuff though

Let's make a pact. Whoever wins blizzcon is officially a bonjwa. I hope it's some random like alive who is totally unfit to be called a bonjwa.


Is Scarlett the next Zerg bonjwa?

If she wins blizzcon sure by my stupid and pointless system of picking bonjwas


Bonjwa by stupid and pointless arbitrary technicalities is better than no bonjwa at all!

Some might disagree but I'm down for that
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:07 GMT
#118
On October 09 2013 13:05 Dodgin wrote:
Also just as a general thing I'd like to point out that both Soulkey and Maru haven't gone to any international non-WCS tournaments. Meanwhile JD has gone to pretty much all of them and has had consistently good results. To some people JD might be overall more dominant during the time period, since he's been tested more times and as lichter's calculations pointed out It's much more difficult to repeat success across multiple tournaments.

Would be interesting to see the probability of getting 1st in one tournament vs getting 2nd in 3 tournaments.

We still kind of need to factor in proleague I think. Don't hate me.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54785 Posts
October 09 2013 04:08 GMT
#119
let's factor in ladder and practice games too
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 09 2013 04:10 GMT
#120
On October 09 2013 13:08 opterown wrote:
let's factor in ladder and practice games too

What are their statistics when off racing? A bonjwa must be well rounded.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Prev 1 4 5 6 7 8 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
BSL
05:00
S23 - Ro16 Group C
Artosis vs Dewalt
Ret vs Tech
LiquipediaDiscussion
IPSL
02:00
Ro24 Group F
Art_Of_Turtle vs KameZerg
Radley vs George
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
SpeCial 64
EmSc Tv 9
StarCraft: Brood War
Rain 1334
ZZZero.O 175
firebathero 112
soO 16
Dota 2
Gorgc5357
qojqva2534
Counter-Strike
pashabiceps2381
zeus1129
allub669
gobbtv176
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King47
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor427
Other Games
Grubby2910
Liquid`RaSZi2122
syndereN217
UpATreeSC27
Railgan17
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick2943
EGCTV1244
StarCraft 2
EmSc Tv 9
EmSc2Tv 9
[ Show 13 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• StrangeGG 38
• Hinosc 16
• Reevou 13
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Other Games
• imaqtpie1341
• Shiphtur456
Upcoming Events
SOOP
13h 56m
soO vs FanTaSy
WardiTV Weekly
15h 56m
Replay Cast
1d 2h
Monday Night Weeklies
1d 20h
PiGosaur Cup
2 days
The PondCast
2 days
GSL
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
KCM Race Survival
4 days
RSL Revival
5 days
[ Show More ]
BSL
5 days
eOnzErG vs StRyKeR
Cross vs JDConan
RSL Revival
6 days
BSL
6 days
Bonyth vs Doodle
Kyrie vs Jimin
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-11-14
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
HCC Season 3

Ongoing

Acropolis #5
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 4
International ShieldBattery League
BSL Season 23
IPSL Winter 2026-27
Calamity Cup Div. A Season 8
Underdog Cup 2026 Div 2-3
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026

Upcoming

YSL S4
Sector 591
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
StarCraft2 Weekly Open Tournament 2026 Grand Finals
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
IEM Kraków 2027
PGL Bucharest 2027
BLAST Bounty Winter 2027
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.