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On November 05 2013 05:27 Excalibur_Z wrote:The connection between decay and bonus pool is speculative because they have shown in the past to measure inactivity through the bonus pool. Korona's stat breakdown, which hopefully will happen eventually (  !) should show us whether there is conclusive evidence to support it. Now that the leagues are locked I will request another data dump from Shadowed for this season and run through the league apportionment numbers.
I spent hour or two going through S14 accounts yesterday. I set minimum inactivity period to 7 days and got little over 4k occurrences. Going through the data is still quite slow even if the new graph markers made it much faster. During that 1 or 2 hours checked 170 inactivity periods (it would have taken several hours more without the markers to verify the data. For example lots of users have missing games and spotting them manually from match lines takes time. Now with markers such problems are immediately visible).
Earlier I looked only accounts that had inactivity periods of 3 weeks or more. And there were tens of occurrences where there seemed to have been decay after 3 weeks of inactivity. Based on yesterday's research there seemed to be no MMR decay if the inactivity period was less than 2 weeks (of course it is also possible that decay would be so small that it might look natural / tool would adjust the graphs within error ranges). But there was 2 accounts that had inactivity period of 16 days and potentially had faced MMR decay.
So the minimum inactivity period length potentially might be 2 weeks (or 16 days) before the decay mechanism activates. This still needs more research and those 2 accounts need to be rechecked more carefully later. I probably should also filter out accounts that had less than 2 weeks of inactivity to have less accounts to go through.
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On November 06 2013 08:49 Salient wrote:
It would be nice if there were an official Blizzard post about this. As it is, there is a lot of speculation.
Indeed it would. It would likely save lots of time too as research takes time. I wonder if they consider it to be too big negative PR hit to admit that such mechanism exists and is likely the main reason why ladders seem to be 'Wild West' regarding opponent skill levels nowadays (For example if GM level player has platinum range MMR the matchmaker thinks he is equally skilled as actual platinum player with similar MMR. Btw. I faced one such ex-GM few weeks ago). Note that they are not denying it either. Then again new season (S16) begins in few days. They might silently adjust the decay mechanism.
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thankfully i grinded games at the last minute and kept my masters league. Yeah its ridiculous how many games you need to play just to make sure you keep the league.
Last season I was demoted to diamond after being inactive for a while (I have been masters for 12-13 seasons now). It took me about 100 games to get back into the league. That's just ridiculous, especially since my games are always long macro games. We are talking about 40 hours of long macro games just to get the "star". I'll stick to unranked until blizzard changes something.
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The new MMR decay is really hostile to non-hardcore players. My job is pretty intense so I can't play every day. That is a problem under the new MMR decay system. You will have 300 bonus pool if you only play 100 ladder games in a season. That apparently leads to massive MMR decay. You can be demoted at the start of the new season despite the fact that you had a better than 50 percent win rate against players at the top of your old league. Then you are compelled to grind out almost unfair games against your temporary new league mates to get promoted again. Respectfully, WTF? 100 games per season should be sufficient to avoid MMR decay.
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On November 11 2013 23:33 Salient wrote:
The new MMR decay is really hostile to non-hardcore players. My job is pretty intense so I can't play every day. That is a problem under the new MMR decay system. You will have 300 bonus pool if you only play 100 ladder games in a season. That apparently leads to massive MMR decay. You can be demoted at the start of the new season despite the fact that you had a better than 50 percent win rate against players at the top of your old league. Then you are compelled to grind out almost unfair games against your temporary new league mates to get promoted again. Respectfully, WTF? 100 games per season should be sufficient to avoid MMR decay.
I have zero bonus pool and I'm still demoted. I am doing pretty well too, although not enough to be promoted imo. Still woulda thought I could at least maintain my league. I don't think it's about the bonus pool.
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10776 Posts
On November 11 2013 23:33 Salient wrote:
The new MMR decay is really hostile to non-hardcore players. My job is pretty intense so I can't play every day. That is a problem under the new MMR decay system. You will have 300 bonus pool if you only play 100 ladder games in a season. That apparently leads to massive MMR decay. You can be demoted at the start of the new season despite the fact that you had a better than 50 percent win rate against players at the top of your old league. Then you are compelled to grind out almost unfair games against your temporary new league mates to get promoted again. Respectfully, WTF? 100 games per season should be sufficient to avoid MMR decay.
Well, the MMR decay is dependent on the league. Master league players for example gain more bonus pool in the same amount of time than Gold league players, since they are expected to play more. I am currently sitting in Gold and I have no effort to keep my bonus pool low even though I barely play 1-2 games a day.
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I played 170 games last season,finished top 8 gold.I just played the placement match and now i'm silver wtf?
I was very active last month so this doesn't make any sense to me.
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Same here, played about 100 games during the last 1,5 months, 54% winrate overall, thought that would keep me in Gold but got placed in Silver...
I know this shouldn't affect me, but I just lost all motivation to play...
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I just played against a "Silver" who was Plat last season and Masters two season ago.
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so stupid, top masters zerg and then I play placement match and lose , get put in diamond...
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It took me about 100 games to get back into the league.
What confuses me most is that if Blizzard's argument for having MMR decay is "a player's skill is highly volatile," wouldn't that also mean that the player's MMR uncertainty should also be changed after the decay? I feel that an MMR decay with a corresponding uncertainty increase would be a nice compromise. Inactive players who have kept their skill would be able to quickly get back to their previous MMR, and inactive players who have lost their skill would quickly settle into their correct MMR.
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On November 12 2013 02:56 Mintograde wrote:What confuses me most is that if Blizzard's argument for having MMR decay is "a player's skill is highly volatile," wouldn't that also mean that the player's MMR uncertainty should also be changed after the decay? I feel that an MMR decay with a corresponding uncertainty increase would be a nice compromise. Inactive players who have kept their skill would be able to quickly get back to their previous MMR, and inactive players who have lost their skill would quickly settle into their correct MMR.
I feel that if the system demotes people so easily then it should also promote them as easily. Grinding 100 games to get one promotion when I've been in masters since 2010 is just frustrating. It's silly because it's not like I faced mid-low diamonds either. I was being matched with top masters and former GMs, when I was still in diamond lol. All the time I was thinking: "for gods sake give me the promotion already." And when it finally hit, I just didnt care anymore and I'm just playing on unranked lol.
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I wasn't sure what happened with my account. I haven't played in many seasons, so I figured I'd have to play five placement matches to get re-placed. I was silver last time I played. Last night I logged in (at the tail end of the season 5 lock), and correctly saw that I had to play 5 games. This morning, when season 6 had begun, I only had to play one game.
I started the game against a random "silver" (who was plat and masters before), and he quit out after about ten seconds. Then I got placed into silver league.
Now this is the correct league given my distant past, but what happened to the five games I supposedly had to play?
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Platinum 3rd in my league last season with 0 bouns pool and got placed gold.
Nice job blizz,now im ''more'' motivated to get to diamond.
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On November 12 2013 02:56 Mintograde wrote:What confuses me most is that if Blizzard's argument for having MMR decay is "a player's skill is highly volatile," wouldn't that also mean that the player's MMR uncertainty should also be changed after the decay? I feel that an MMR decay with a corresponding uncertainty increase would be a nice compromise. Inactive players who have kept their skill would be able to quickly get back to their previous MMR, and inactive players who have lost their skill would quickly settle into their correct MMR.
Blizzard has not publicly commented MMR decay at all. Neither they have denied it. Or do you have a public source?
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new system is killing me, can't keep all 1v1 2v2 3v3 4v4 and a 2nd server 1v1 up on masters
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On November 12 2013 01:41 DifuntO wrote:
I played 170 games last season,finished top 8 gold.I just played the placement match and now i'm silver wtf?
I was very active last month so this doesn't make any sense to me.
Decay could have happened already during the early part of last season. As there are no demotions during the season it is not obvious. Also as lots of others have been decayed too, players do not necessarily notice too much difference regarding the opponents.
Did you have an inactivity period that was longer than 2 weeks sometime during last season? If you had, then you have likely faced decay. If you did not have, then your MMR has likely dropped naturally during the season.
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When I actually played the game several seasons ago, I was at a steady high diamond/ low master ranking, for every season. Then I played much less and got placed into platinum two seasons ago (despite not having a losing record). Then last season I got placed into gold (despite not having a losing record). So this past season, I actually played a ton of games, no bonus pool left, rank 1 "gold", and ~70-80% win record.
Just played my one placement match for the new season. Won it. Placed in gold.
This is seriously stupid. It's gotten to the point where I don't even feel rewarded for playing a lot and winning a lot. For all the silly things Blizzard is doing to make casual players feel good about themselves, you'd think they'd care most about accurate placement and representation of skill and progress.
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On November 12 2013 00:49 JustPassingBy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2013 23:33 Salient wrote:
The new MMR decay is really hostile to non-hardcore players. My job is pretty intense so I can't play every day. That is a problem under the new MMR decay system. You will have 300 bonus pool if you only play 100 ladder games in a season. That apparently leads to massive MMR decay. You can be demoted at the start of the new season despite the fact that you had a better than 50 percent win rate against players at the top of your old league. Then you are compelled to grind out almost unfair games against your temporary new league mates to get promoted again. Respectfully, WTF? 100 games per season should be sufficient to avoid MMR decay. Well, the MMR decay is dependent on the league. Master league players for example gain more bonus pool in the same amount of time than Gold league players, since they are expected to play more. I am currently sitting in Gold and I have no effort to keep my bonus pool low even though I barely play 1-2 games a day.
Decay seems not to depend on leagues, but on inactivity period length. Decay seems to kick in when player has been inactive for 16 days (could be 2 weeks, but I have not yet found such examples) or more. After that the amount of decay likely increases linearly until it reaches ~300 or little more on MMR tool scale, which is little more than MMR ranges of most leagues (diam 250, plat 250, gold 280, silver 300, bronze 280). The linear increase is still not confirmed, but rough plots that I did month ago seemed to support this hypothesis. Going through the data (MMR tool data for over 10k accounts during S14. Haven't looked at S15 data at all yet) is pretty slow , but when I have enough data I will plot it and release some graphs. But it may still take awhile.
Also it is still unknown if Blizzard has made changes regarding the decay (or offsets) for this season (S16).
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I didn't realize just how serious of an issue this was until now.
While I was lucky to keep my primary account in diamond (masters before Hots, but whatever, there was inflation then anyway) I recently created a second account to off-race as Zerg. I won my placements and got put in Silver, then played a good amount of games there and won almost every game quite easily.
Then, I played my placement today and got put into gold, and almost every game now I'm playing ex masters players, players who are probably way better than I'll ever be. Kind of ridiculous, these leagues/divisions mean nothing now.
Has anyone come up with a practical explanation as to why Blizzard decided to put this in? I don't buy the whole "It makes players feel motivated to play because they're in lower leagues than they used to be" nonsense. Now that we know this exists, it would be much more interesting to understand why.
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EPT
