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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 58

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
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Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
October 24 2013 07:56 GMT
#1141
The problem here is Aligulac, Dear and Soo are massive favourites in their groups, yet Aligulac has them at 48%.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
ElBlanco
Profile Joined July 2011
Australia140 Posts
October 24 2013 08:10 GMT
#1142
On October 24 2013 16:56 Ghanburighan wrote:
The problem here is Aligulac, Dear and Soo are massive favourites in their groups, yet Aligulac has them at 48%.


Dears group is hard to predict because of all the protoss. I would give him the edge over the other 2 but it's hard to predict it with a high level of confidence. Soo, well i'd consider Maru the favorite to get through that group (my opinion anyway). That leaves him to get through duckdeok and Byul, i'd give him the edge but again it's so hard to tip especially if it comes down to a ZvZ.
youngkrazz
Profile Joined October 2013
United States14 Posts
October 24 2013 19:32 GMT
#1143
I would rather have Mvp vs Soulkey than any Protoss. His TvP just seems to be lacking. Maybe it would be better in live competition. I am hoping he has some build order tricks up his sleeve. Like when he won against a Toss using hellions
Becuse he could. He did it because he could.Go Mvp
Coolhwip
Profile Joined March 2011
Sweden1381 Posts
October 25 2013 13:24 GMT
#1144
Screw the WCS live threa. This is where im gonna hang out during wcs finals!
crack
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
October 25 2013 15:25 GMT
#1145
I don't know if somebody remarked that already, but there is a possibility that after the Ro16, Naniwa will have at least the tiebreaker for sure, as he would have to be jumped over by at least two players (and only group C has 3 anti-Naniwa players)
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 25 2013 18:28 GMT
#1146
A preview article that mvick wrote for cadred.org citing my stats
http://www.cadred.org/News/Article/201764/
"Expert" mods4ever.com
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
October 25 2013 18:31 GMT
#1147
On October 24 2013 16:56 Ghanburighan wrote:
The problem here is Aligulac, Dear and Soo are massive favourites in their groups, yet Aligulac has them at 48%.


I don't know if they are massive favorites. Not because of aligulac. But Koreans usually don't perform as well outside Korea in their first couple foreign events. I think it is something they need to adjust to.
Yonnua
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2331 Posts
October 25 2013 18:48 GMT
#1148
On October 26 2013 03:31 vthree wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2013 16:56 Ghanburighan wrote:
The problem here is Aligulac, Dear and Soo are massive favourites in their groups, yet Aligulac has them at 48%.


I don't know if they are massive favorites. Not because of aligulac. But Koreans usually don't perform as well outside Korea in their first couple foreign events. I think it is something they need to adjust to.


To be fair, they've both been to North America before for MLG, where Dear got top 6 and soO got top 16, so they've both got the capacity to do well at foreign events.
LRSL 2014 Finalist! PartinG | Mvp | Bomber | Creator | NaNiwa | herO
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
October 25 2013 19:43 GMT
#1149
Well, Naniwa fans better be worried. Hack and Trap did as well as one can expect, and SK is down a game too.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Koerage
Profile Joined April 2012
Netherlands1220 Posts
October 25 2013 19:46 GMT
#1150
On October 26 2013 04:43 Ghanburighan wrote:
Well, Naniwa fans better be worried. Hack and Trap did as well as one can expect, and SK is down a game too.


SK dropping out wouldnt matter as long as MC+Polt go through - they're already above nani in points. Trap performing might be more dangerous, but JvP might be too strong for him
Zheryn
Profile Joined December 2010
Sweden3653 Posts
October 25 2013 19:47 GMT
#1151
Anyone have a quick summary of who we're cheering for in the different groups? TeamNani!
hundred thousand krouner
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 25 2013 19:48 GMT
#1152
On October 26 2013 04:47 Zheryn wrote:
Anyone have a quick summary of who we're cheering for in the different groups? TeamNani!

cheering for Jaedong in this next match. HerO in the group after. Maru and duckdeok in last group
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
October 25 2013 19:50 GMT
#1153
SK matters because the more good players with tons of points get knocked out, the better the chances of the underdogs with few points trying to claw into the top 16.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 25 2013 19:51 GMT
#1154
just cheer for anyone in the OP with more points than Naniwa already because if they keep winning that means other people don't catch up
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
TaKemE
Profile Joined April 2010
Denmark1045 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-25 19:57:19
October 25 2013 19:56 GMT
#1155
Both Hack and Trap winning is not that big of a deal since they both needs to get 1. place to pass Naniwa so only one of them can and even the chance of that is still small.

soO and Dear needs to lose :X
1Dhalism
Profile Joined June 2012
862 Posts
October 25 2013 21:24 GMT
#1156
On October 24 2013 16:56 Ghanburighan wrote:
The problem here is Aligulac, Dear and Soo are massive favourites in their groups, yet Aligulac has them at 48%.

If only we had Sniper and Jjakji in there, we'd already know who's gonna win WCS global!
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
October 25 2013 21:48 GMT
#1157
Team Naniwa 0:4, but two of the games were inconsequential (in groups A and C with 3-1 split between teams, the first two games of the group do not matter too much). But the remianing two games in group B made it sure that one anti-Naniwa player will go to Ro8 (making it two in total that are sure).
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
Zheryn
Profile Joined December 2010
Sweden3653 Posts
October 25 2013 21:55 GMT
#1158
So Nanis chances should have dropped down to hell now, this is sad
hundred thousand krouner
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 25 2013 21:57 GMT
#1159
I wouldn't say to hell. These players still have to get like a season finals win or really high placing
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 25 2013 21:59 GMT
#1160
On October 26 2013 06:55 Zheryn wrote:
So Nanis chances should have dropped down to hell now, this is sad

Trap, Genius, and Hack all have to win the season finals to pass him... Dear is the only one you have to worry about so far. >_>
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