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Russian Federation40186 Posts
On October 24 2013 02:59 ffadicted wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2013 02:44 waspen94 wrote:
I would say this is way to volotile to talk about a bad draw for nani. Not really. Group A will eliminate 2 good players that could take out others that are fighting nani, basically players we want to cheer for killing each other Same with group B, as Trap/Genius chances of winning the whole thing are very low imo. Group C is one of the worst draws possible. VortiX is instant loss and hero's PvP looked awful against Oz, Dear and Oz (two that we need to lose badly) are essential guarantees in the Ro8 Group D looks extremely easy for soO, he will make quick work of ByuL and duckdeok. With this draw, I give it probably an 80% chance that the 3 biggest treats to naniwa will make it out effortlessly to the Ro8. There is no real threat against them in their groups, while A and B are staked as sh*t with players that could help naniwa by making it far killing each other.
Actually there is large chance of A-D B-C seedings for Ro8. This way there is a good chance players from group A and B will eliminate soO, Oz and Dear. Granted, it is hard to doubt GSL finalists couple of weeks after GSL win.
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On October 24 2013 03:03 lolfail9001 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2013 02:59 ffadicted wrote:On October 24 2013 02:44 waspen94 wrote:
I would say this is way to volotile to talk about a bad draw for nani. Not really. Group A will eliminate 2 good players that could take out others that are fighting nani, basically players we want to cheer for killing each other Same with group B, as Trap/Genius chances of winning the whole thing are very low imo. Group C is one of the worst draws possible. VortiX is instant loss and hero's PvP looked awful against Oz, Dear and Oz (two that we need to lose badly) are essential guarantees in the Ro8 Group D looks extremely easy for soO, he will make quick work of ByuL and duckdeok. With this draw, I give it probably an 80% chance that the 3 biggest treats to naniwa will make it out effortlessly to the Ro8. There is no real threat against them in their groups, while A and B are staked as sh*t with players that could help naniwa by making it far killing each other. Actually there is large chance of A-D B-C seedings for Ro8. This way there is a good chance players from group A and B will eliminate soO, Oz and Dear. Granted, it is hard to doubt GSL finalists couple of weeks after GSL win.
If it's A-D B-C, then ya, that'll be definitely better than A-B C-D
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you guys do realize that most of the players trying to make it to blizzcon need at least a semifinal finish to make it right? not saying it's not likely but for the 3 closest to the cutoff to all make top 4 is not very likely
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On October 24 2013 03:07 asongdotnet wrote:
you guys do realize that most of the players trying to make it to blizzcon need at least a semifinal finish to make it right? not saying it's not likely but for the 3 closest to the cutoff to all make top 4 is not very likely
Everybody realizes that. Inherently, the higher the chance of making it out of your group stages = the higher the chance of making it to the semis. Strictly speaking in terms of the group stages, this is one of the worst draws for Naniwa.
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Russian Federation40186 Posts
On October 24 2013 03:06 ffadicted wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2013 03:03 lolfail9001 wrote:On October 24 2013 02:59 ffadicted wrote:On October 24 2013 02:44 waspen94 wrote:
I would say this is way to volotile to talk about a bad draw for nani. Not really. Group A will eliminate 2 good players that could take out others that are fighting nani, basically players we want to cheer for killing each other Same with group B, as Trap/Genius chances of winning the whole thing are very low imo. Group C is one of the worst draws possible. VortiX is instant loss and hero's PvP looked awful against Oz, Dear and Oz (two that we need to lose badly) are essential guarantees in the Ro8 Group D looks extremely easy for soO, he will make quick work of ByuL and duckdeok. With this draw, I give it probably an 80% chance that the 3 biggest treats to naniwa will make it out effortlessly to the Ro8. There is no real threat against them in their groups, while A and B are staked as sh*t with players that could help naniwa by making it far killing each other. Actually there is large chance of A-D B-C seedings for Ro8. This way there is a good chance players from group A and B will eliminate soO, Oz and Dear. Granted, it is hard to doubt GSL finalists couple of weeks after GSL win. If it's A-D B-C, then ya, that'll be definitely better than A-B C-D
At first season it was A-D B-C
At second season it was A-C B-D
At third season it will be...
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7 of these players can be 1st of the regular season ! :
-Maru, MC and MMA need at least to win ( and hope that the 4 others players don't have more points ) ( this is to have more than inno )
-Soulkey and HerO need at least to go in final ( to have more than inno )
- Polt and Jaedong need at least to be TOP8 ( just go out of their groups ) ( to have more than inno )
duckdeok is qualified but he can't have more than inno, so he go at Toronto for the fun !!! 
and i think he can win because he doesn't have stress ! ( TROLL : but doesn't have skill too ) :p
The 8 other players are not qualified but they all can do this at Toronto and go to the blizzcon :
-Oz, soO and Dear need to go at least in semi-finals ( to have more than revival )
-Vortix need to go in final ( if he do he is sure to go at blizzcon ) ( to have more than revival )
-ByuL, Trap, Genius and Hack need to win ( to have more than revival )
who win this season final is qualified for blizzcon like the 2 others winners of a season final !
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Hmm WCS Season 3 Final groups came out. I wonder how this will affect the chances?
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On October 24 2013 04:10 argonautdice wrote:
Hmm WCS Season 3 Final groups came out. I wonder how this will affect the chances?
yes pls die4ever do a simulation with the groups pleaaaaase
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Die4Ever already said he'll run the simulation with groups after he gets home tonight. If he's in the US that likely means we'll have them in 3-4 hours.
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On October 24 2013 04:22 Yakikorosu wrote:
Die4Ever already said he'll run the simulation with groups after he gets home tonight. If he's in the US that likely means we'll have them in 3-4 hours.
with traffic, and 30 minutes for the simulation to run, probably 5 hours from now
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On October 24 2013 04:22 Yakikorosu wrote:
Die4Ever already said he'll run the simulation with groups after he gets home tonight. If he's in the US that likely means we'll have them in 3-4 hours.
yeaaaaaaah thx ! that's simulation systeme is so good !
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On October 24 2013 04:23 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2013 04:22 Yakikorosu wrote:
Die4Ever already said he'll run the simulation with groups after he gets home tonight. If he's in the US that likely means we'll have them in 3-4 hours. with traffic, and 30 minutes for the simulation to run, probably 5 hours from now
I demand you remote into your home PC and run it now
:x
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On October 24 2013 04:26 ffadicted wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2013 04:23 Die4Ever wrote:On October 24 2013 04:22 Yakikorosu wrote:
Die4Ever already said he'll run the simulation with groups after he gets home tonight. If he's in the US that likely means we'll have them in 3-4 hours. with traffic, and 30 minutes for the simulation to run, probably 5 hours from now I demand you remote into your home PC and run it now :x
Haha I should've left it on knowing that the groups would be announced soon, but it is off right now.
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Running stats now. Any ideas what I can do for a special Season Finals edition after this run? I saw a suggestion for probability of different matches in blizzcon ro16, like "Innovation vs Revival 20% chance" (just a guess).
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On October 24 2013 08:51 Die4Ever wrote:
Running stats now. Any ideas what I can do for a special Season Finals edition after this run? I saw a suggestion for probability of different matches in blizzcon ro16, like "Innovation vs Revival 20% chance" (just a guess).
when that's finish pls ( i'm in paris and it's 1 : 58 am )
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Updated with Season 3 Finals ro16 groups set. Naniwa went from 69.9861% down to 69.4155%, not a significant change.
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thx
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Dear went from 19.7754% up to 21.729%!
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On October 24 2013 09:02 Die4Ever wrote:
Updated with Season 3 Finals ro16 groups set. Naniwa went from 69.9861% down to 69.4155%, not a significant change.
Naniwa went up from 57.8121% to 57.8225% in your run where all players are considered equal 
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On October 24 2013 09:04 Die4Ever wrote:
Dear went from 19.7754% up to 21.729%!
Can I ask, how much of this is from the draw and how much from Dear's improved rating on aligulac?
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EPT
