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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 55

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 53 54 55 56 57 78 Next
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
October 21 2013 21:49 GMT
#1081
On October 22 2013 05:37 Dodgin wrote:
I hope the season finals shakes up the points enough so Mvp doesn't have to play vs Soulkey in the first round, that's scary.

this, also I don't want Taeja vs MC so soon
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
October 21 2013 21:54 GMT
#1082
Sweet, Mvp's probability increases to 100%.

To be honest, his chances were never really in doubt (always 99.9% or so), but nevertheless I can take a small sigh of relief.
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 21 2013 22:13 GMT
#1083
On October 22 2013 06:48 Stoffelhase wrote:
That has nothing to do with me being a faniwa. But your logic is flawed. This match should never be able to happen, it only can happen because revival got free points.
To exaggerate this it would also not be fair to give them both 100 additional points so they could have a (possible) 3way tie with duckdeok.

lol what? his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving? cause that sounds like pretty sound logic to me. I agree that those extra points were reallllly questionable, but at the end of the day if Naniwa cant win that bo5 it will show that Revival did deserve it more.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Yakikorosu
Profile Joined March 2013
1203 Posts
October 21 2013 22:20 GMT
#1084
On October 22 2013 06:48 Stoffelhase wrote:
That has nothing to do with me being a faniwa. But your logic is flawed. This match should never be able to happen, it only can happen because revival got free points.
To exaggerate this it would also not be fair to give them both 100 additional points so they could have a (possible) 3way tie with duckdeok.


Unless you really think it's an IEM conspiracy (which seems silly; IEM is a European organization ffs), then Revival just got a little lucky. Random chance always plays a large role in all sports, including e-sports. If Jim doesn't have European Visa issues, aLive never gets a chance to go to S2 Finals, never earns 1000 points there, and is way out of the running right now. If Mvp doesn't get that initial non-qualifier invite to the Europe Premiere League maybe he doesn't qualify right away and is nowhere near Blizzcon right now. If ForGG doesn't widow mine his own medivacs against Stephano in EU S1 in that game on Neo Planet S, maybe he's the one that goes to the finals against Mvp and has a lot more points right now and doesn't forfeit his IEM NY spot to begin with... etc etc.
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 21 2013 22:28 GMT
#1085
@Die4ever: Minor edit: Mvp won his challenger league group; minimum points is now 3600.
Thanks again for being so awesome
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 21 2013 22:34 GMT
#1086
well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so.

The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him.

@Yakikorosu
Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation.
godamine
Profile Joined February 2013
France2 Posts
October 22 2013 07:56 GMT
#1087
@Die4Ever
Again big thanks for the effort!

I have a request if possible with your program, can you set probabilities for RO16 Blizzcon matches?
For eg : Polt vs Naniwa x% whereas Polt vs Innovation 0% etc...

Thanks again
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-22 08:30:33
October 22 2013 08:28 GMT
#1088
On October 22 2013 07:34 Stoffelhase wrote:
well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so.

The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him.

@Yakikorosu
Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation.


By the same token, all the players that were 'invited' to season 1 premier league NA and EU (including Naniwa, Mvp, etc) also were given points.

I am not saying how IEM handled the Revival was fair. But there are a lot of 'unfair' things. How about some teams being able to send their players to more non WCS events?
crow_mw
Profile Joined March 2012
Poland115 Posts
October 22 2013 09:08 GMT
#1089
With single elimination seeded bracket even if Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon, first round he will get some monster like Innovation or Polt.
75
Profile Joined December 2012
Germany4057 Posts
October 22 2013 10:19 GMT
#1090
On October 22 2013 18:08 crow_mw wrote:
With single elimination seeded bracket even if Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon, first round he will get some monster like Innovation or Polt.

this is not the naniwa fanclub thread
yo twitch, as long as I can watch 480p lagfree I'm happy
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
October 22 2013 10:21 GMT
#1091
On October 22 2013 18:08 crow_mw wrote:
With single elimination seeded bracket even if Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon, first round he will get some monster like Innovation or Polt.


I think I'm okay with that. Last time he played Innovation, it was awesome.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 22 2013 12:20 GMT
#1092
I find it interesting that in the run where everyone is considered equal, naniwa's chances plumet to 57%, while both Dear and soO rise. I guess this goes to show how much the two of them are underrated in aligulac
SooYoung-Noona!
ggrrg
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
Bulgaria2716 Posts
October 22 2013 12:41 GMT
#1093
On October 22 2013 07:34 Stoffelhase wrote:
well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so.

The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him.

@Yakikorosu
Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation.


I guess, I have missed something. What was Revival given free points for?
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
October 22 2013 12:54 GMT
#1094
On October 22 2013 21:20 ffadicted wrote:
I find it interesting that in the run where everyone is considered equal, naniwa's chances plumet to 57%, while both Dear and soO rise. I guess this goes to show how much the two of them are underrated in aligulac

Aligulac is good for comparing players from same player pool. Dear and soO (and most of KeSPA the same way) do not fit there.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
Alpino
Profile Joined June 2011
Brazil4390 Posts
October 22 2013 12:57 GMT
#1095
On October 22 2013 19:19 75 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2013 18:08 crow_mw wrote:
With single elimination seeded bracket even if Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon, first round he will get some monster like Innovation or Polt.

this is not the naniwa fanclub thread


talking about implications of the statistics seems not off-topic to me
20/11/2015 - never forget EE's Ember
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 22 2013 13:31 GMT
#1096
On October 22 2013 21:41 ggrrg wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2013 07:34 Stoffelhase wrote:
well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so.

The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him.

@Yakikorosu
Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation.


I guess, I have missed something. What was Revival given free points for?


He's referencing the free trip to IEM group stage that revival was given when ForGG dropped out, even though revival was nowhere near qualification in the regular qualifiers, and people ahead of him weren't asked because they had previously said no to an open bracket spot (which is completely different). A lot of people were pretty pissed about that, and it gave Revival 75 "free" points for no reason at all, which will allow him to tie naniwa if he makes it out of his WCS Challenger group stage.
SooYoung-Noona!
nikouli-makouli
Profile Joined November 2012
10 Posts
October 22 2013 14:07 GMT
#1097
On October 22 2013 22:31 ffadicted wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2013 21:41 ggrrg wrote:
On October 22 2013 07:34 Stoffelhase wrote:
well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so.

The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him.

@Yakikorosu
Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation.


I guess, I have missed something. What was Revival given free points for?


He's referencing the free trip to IEM group stage that revival was given when ForGG dropped out, even though revival was nowhere near qualification in the regular qualifiers, and people ahead of him weren't asked because they had previously said no to an open bracket spot (which is completely different). A lot of people were pretty pissed about that, and it gave Revival 75 "free" points for no reason at all, which will allow him to tie naniwa if he makes it out of his WCS Challenger group stage.

it's the same for hyun !
BaneRiders
Profile Joined August 2013
Sweden3630 Posts
October 22 2013 18:02 GMT
#1098
On October 22 2013 23:07 nikouli-makouli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2013 22:31 ffadicted wrote:
On October 22 2013 21:41 ggrrg wrote:
On October 22 2013 07:34 Stoffelhase wrote:
well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so.

The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him.

@Yakikorosu
Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation.


I guess, I have missed something. What was Revival given free points for?


He's referencing the free trip to IEM group stage that revival was given when ForGG dropped out, even though revival was nowhere near qualification in the regular qualifiers, and people ahead of him weren't asked because they had previously said no to an open bracket spot (which is completely different). A lot of people were pretty pissed about that, and it gave Revival 75 "free" points for no reason at all, which will allow him to tie naniwa if he makes it out of his WCS Challenger group stage.

it's the same for hyun !


Yes, that is correct. However, as HyuN cannot get anymore WCS points, he is completely out of the race for the final 16.
Earth, Water, Air and Protoss!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17665 Posts
October 22 2013 18:29 GMT
#1099
Ugh how long is blizzard gonna take to release the season finals groups? It's only 3 days away and all the players are already known lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
CrazyBirdman
Profile Joined July 2011
Germany3509 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-22 18:33:45
October 22 2013 18:32 GMT
#1100
On October 23 2013 03:29 Die4Ever wrote:
Ugh how long is blizzard gonna take to release the season finals groups? It's only 3 days away and all the players are already known lol.

It's not groups, it a 16-man bracket. Until they know the exact spot every player they can't determine the match-ups.
http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/articles/wcs-global-finals-format-seeding-and-tiebreakers


Edit: I'm stupid, I thought you were talking about Blizzcon
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