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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On October 22 2013 05:37 Dodgin wrote: I hope the season finals shakes up the points enough so Mvp doesn't have to play vs Soulkey in the first round, that's scary. this, also I don't want Taeja vs MC so soon  | ||
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Entirety
1423 Posts
To be honest, his chances were never really in doubt (always 99.9% or so), but nevertheless I can take a small sigh of relief.  | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On October 22 2013 06:48 Stoffelhase wrote: That has nothing to do with me being a faniwa. But your logic is flawed. This match should never be able to happen, it only can happen because revival got free points. To exaggerate this it would also not be fair to give them both 100 additional points so they could have a (possible) 3way tie with duckdeok. lol what? his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving? cause that sounds like pretty sound logic to me. I agree that those extra points were reallllly questionable, but at the end of the day if Naniwa cant win that bo5 it will show that Revival did deserve it more. | ||
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
On October 22 2013 06:48 Stoffelhase wrote: That has nothing to do with me being a faniwa. But your logic is flawed. This match should never be able to happen, it only can happen because revival got free points. To exaggerate this it would also not be fair to give them both 100 additional points so they could have a (possible) 3way tie with duckdeok. Unless you really think it's an IEM conspiracy (which seems silly; IEM is a European organization ffs), then Revival just got a little lucky. Random chance always plays a large role in all sports, including e-sports. If Jim doesn't have European Visa issues, aLive never gets a chance to go to S2 Finals, never earns 1000 points there, and is way out of the running right now. If Mvp doesn't get that initial non-qualifier invite to the Europe Premiere League maybe he doesn't qualify right away and is nowhere near Blizzcon right now. If ForGG doesn't widow mine his own medivacs against Stephano in EU S1 in that game on Neo Planet S, maybe he's the one that goes to the finals against Mvp and has a lot more points right now and doesn't forfeit his IEM NY spot to begin with... etc etc. | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
Thanks again for being so awesome | ||
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Stoffelhase
Germany162 Posts
The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him. @Yakikorosu Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation. | ||
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godamine
France2 Posts
Again big thanks for the effort! I have a request if possible with your program, can you set probabilities for RO16 Blizzcon matches? For eg : Polt vs Naniwa x% whereas Polt vs Innovation 0% etc... Thanks again | ||
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vthree
Hong Kong8039 Posts
On October 22 2013 07:34 Stoffelhase wrote: well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so. The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him. @Yakikorosu Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation. By the same token, all the players that were 'invited' to season 1 premier league NA and EU (including Naniwa, Mvp, etc) also were given points. I am not saying how IEM handled the Revival was fair. But there are a lot of 'unfair' things. How about some teams being able to send their players to more non WCS events? | ||
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crow_mw
Poland115 Posts
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75
Germany4057 Posts
On October 22 2013 18:08 crow_mw wrote: With single elimination seeded bracket even if Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon, first round he will get some monster like Innovation or Polt. this is not the naniwa fanclub thread  | ||
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
On October 22 2013 18:08 crow_mw wrote: With single elimination seeded bracket even if Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon, first round he will get some monster like Innovation or Polt. I think I'm okay with that. Last time he played Innovation, it was awesome. | ||
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ffadicted
United States3545 Posts
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ggrrg
Bulgaria2717 Posts
On October 22 2013 07:34 Stoffelhase wrote: well, as explained, imagine you now give nani+revival 100 extra points for nothing and then they beat duckdeok in a 3way tie and duckdeok drops out.. and by this logic, to exaggerate even more, why not let huk play innovation in a bo5, winner goes to blizzcon.. "his logic is flawed because he thinks the winner of a bo5 is the most deserving?" Yes, i think so. The deciding match of nani vs revival should not have a possibility to happen, because revival did not earn this chance himself, he just got points given to him. @Yakikorosu Those are really good and valid points. Luck and bad luck always play a role, espacially the visa issues had a huge influence. I was so sad when Jim again got his visa denied in the USA, germany, etc... But this time, it could have been prevented (and still can, but probably wont). Revival only earned 95% of the points he has and those extra points could cause an unfair situation. I guess, I have missed something. What was Revival given free points for? | ||
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
On October 22 2013 21:20 ffadicted wrote: I find it interesting that in the run where everyone is considered equal, naniwa's chances plumet to 57%, while both Dear and soO rise. I guess this goes to show how much the two of them are underrated in aligulac Aligulac is good for comparing players from same player pool. Dear and soO (and most of KeSPA the same way) do not fit there. | ||
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Alpino
Brazil4390 Posts
talking about implications of the statistics seems not off-topic to me | ||
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ffadicted
United States3545 Posts
On October 22 2013 21:41 ggrrg wrote: I guess, I have missed something. What was Revival given free points for? He's referencing the free trip to IEM group stage that revival was given when ForGG dropped out, even though revival was nowhere near qualification in the regular qualifiers, and people ahead of him weren't asked because they had previously said no to an open bracket spot (which is completely different). A lot of people were pretty pissed about that, and it gave Revival 75 "free" points for no reason at all, which will allow him to tie naniwa if he makes it out of his WCS Challenger group stage. | ||
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nikouli-makouli
10 Posts
On October 22 2013 22:31 ffadicted wrote: He's referencing the free trip to IEM group stage that revival was given when ForGG dropped out, even though revival was nowhere near qualification in the regular qualifiers, and people ahead of him weren't asked because they had previously said no to an open bracket spot (which is completely different). A lot of people were pretty pissed about that, and it gave Revival 75 "free" points for no reason at all, which will allow him to tie naniwa if he makes it out of his WCS Challenger group stage. it's the same for hyun ! | ||
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BaneRiders
Sweden3630 Posts
Yes, that is correct. However, as HyuN cannot get anymore WCS points, he is completely out of the race for the final 16. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
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CrazyBirdman
Germany3509 Posts
On October 23 2013 03:29 Die4Ever wrote: Ugh how long is blizzard gonna take to release the season finals groups? It's only 3 days away and all the players are already known lol. http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/articles/wcs-global-finals-format-seeding-and-tiebreakers Edit: I'm stupid, I thought you were talking about Blizzcon | ||
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