On October 21 2013 13:44 Iceman331 wrote: In case anyone wants the specific scenarios, Naniwa is knocked out if any 2 of the following happen:
Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is.
Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens.
Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first.
Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result.
Okay, that's pretty fantastic for Naniwa. Oz, Dear or soO making Top 4 seems fairly likely, but I'd be very surprised if either of the other two happened.
note the "or" on those sentences. If two of Dear/soO/Oz make it to Ro4, nani is 100% out. If only one makes it, it's still up in the air on wtf is gonna happen with the revival tiebreaker.
Naniwa's chances are not as good as ppl are making it out to be tbh
Nah, I think 70% is pretty accurate from where we're sitting right now. It's a very high bar to make the top 4 of the season finals and it's mostly P, which Aligulac records show is the weakest match-up for all three.
It would be fair to characterize it as a shock if Vortix, Oz, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack actually wins the whole thing. For one, someone from WCS Korea has won the first two seasons and I think almost everyone would expect that to happen again (probably more Soulkey than Dear or soO).
The part where it's gut-wrenching is that all these guys hold their destiny in their own hands, while Naniwa and his fans can only root for players to lose. It's a very straightforward message for Dear and soO and Oz - you want to go to Blizzcon, get to the semifinals and you're in.
On October 21 2013 13:44 Iceman331 wrote: In case anyone wants the specific scenarios, Naniwa is knocked out if any 2 of the following happen:
Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is.
Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens.
Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first.
Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result.
Okay, that's pretty fantastic for Naniwa. Oz, Dear or soO making Top 4 seems fairly likely, but I'd be very surprised if either of the other two happened.
note the "or" on those sentences. If two of Dear/soO/Oz make it to Ro4, nani is 100% out. If only one makes it, it's still up in the air on wtf is gonna happen with the revival tiebreaker.
Naniwa's chances are not as good as ppl are making it out to be tbh
Nah, I think 70% is pretty accurate from where we're sitting right now. It's a very high bar to make the top 4 of the season finals and it's mostly P, which Aligulac records show is the weakest match-up for all three.
It would be fair to characterize it as a shock if Vortix, Oz, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack actually wins the whole thing. For one, someone from WCS Korea has won the first two seasons and I think almost everyone would expect that to happen again (probably more Soulkey than Dear or soO).
The part where it's gut-wrenching is that all these guys hold their destiny in their own hands, while Naniwa and his fans can only root for players to lose. It's a very straightforward message for Dear and soO and Oz - you want to go to Blizzcon, get to the semifinals and you're in.
We'll have to wait for the brackets to see true possibilities of course. I don't think it's shocking to see all three in the Ro8, and then we'd be cheering for 3 loses... you also get situations where the brackets fall in a way that will guarantee at least one of them in the Ro4 if they make it past group stages, then we're relying on the tiebreaker stuff with Revival.
Don't get me wrong, I still think it's >50%, but other nanifans seem to be WAY more confident then I am... I would consider it a shock if none of those players make it to the semis honestly
On October 21 2013 13:44 Iceman331 wrote: In case anyone wants the specific scenarios, Naniwa is knocked out if any 2 of the following happen:
Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is.
Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens.
Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first.
Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result.
Okay, that's pretty fantastic for Naniwa. Oz, Dear or soO making Top 4 seems fairly likely, but I'd be very surprised if either of the other two happened.
note the "or" on those sentences. If two of Dear/soO/Oz make it to Ro4, nani is 100% out. If only one makes it, it's still up in the air on wtf is gonna happen with the revival tiebreaker.
Naniwa's chances are not as good as ppl are making it out to be tbh
Nah, I think 70% is pretty accurate from where we're sitting right now. It's a very high bar to make the top 4 of the season finals and it's mostly P, which Aligulac records show is the weakest match-up for all three.
It would be fair to characterize it as a shock if Vortix, Oz, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack actually wins the whole thing. For one, someone from WCS Korea has won the first two seasons and I think almost everyone would expect that to happen again (probably more Soulkey than Dear or soO).
The part where it's gut-wrenching is that all these guys hold their destiny in their own hands, while Naniwa and his fans can only root for players to lose. It's a very straightforward message for Dear and soO and Oz - you want to go to Blizzcon, get to the semifinals and you're in.
We'll have to wait for the brackets to see true possibilities of course. I don't think it's shocking to see all three in the Ro8, and then we'd be cheering for 3 loses... you also get situations where the brackets fall in a way that will guarantee at least one of them in the Ro4 if they make it past group stages, then we're relying on the tiebreaker stuff with Revival.
Don't get me wrong, I still think it's >50%, but other nanifans seem to be WAY more confident then I am... I would consider it a shock if all three of those players DIDN'T make it to the semis honestly
On October 21 2013 13:44 Iceman331 wrote: In case anyone wants the specific scenarios, Naniwa is knocked out if any 2 of the following happen:
Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is.
Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens.
Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first.
Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result.
Okay, that's pretty fantastic for Naniwa. Oz, Dear or soO making Top 4 seems fairly likely, but I'd be very surprised if either of the other two happened.
note the "or" on those sentences. If two of Dear/soO/Oz make it to Ro4, nani is 100% out. If only one makes it, it's still up in the air on wtf is gonna happen with the revival tiebreaker.
Naniwa's chances are not as good as ppl are making it out to be tbh
Nah, I think 70% is pretty accurate from where we're sitting right now. It's a very high bar to make the top 4 of the season finals and it's mostly P, which Aligulac records show is the weakest match-up for all three.
It would be fair to characterize it as a shock if Vortix, Oz, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack actually wins the whole thing. For one, someone from WCS Korea has won the first two seasons and I think almost everyone would expect that to happen again (probably more Soulkey than Dear or soO).
The part where it's gut-wrenching is that all these guys hold their destiny in their own hands, while Naniwa and his fans can only root for players to lose. It's a very straightforward message for Dear and soO and Oz - you want to go to Blizzcon, get to the semifinals and you're in.
We'll have to wait for the brackets to see true possibilities of course. I don't think it's shocking to see all three in the Ro8, and then we'd be cheering for 3 loses... you also get situations where the brackets fall in a way that will guarantee at least one of them in the Ro4 if they make it past group stages, then we're relying on the tiebreaker stuff with Revival.
Don't get me wrong, I still think it's >50%, but other nanifans seem to be WAY more confident then I am... I would consider it a shock if all three of those players DIDN'T make it to the semis honestly
You'd really be shocked by that? Seriously?
Maybe you misunderstood, but I meant if none of them make it that'd be shocking. S2 finals was a bit crazy on the whole upset thing, but one must remember S1 finals. 3 of the 4 players in the semis of that were the ones that came from korea, and both korea finalists made it to the Ro4. It's really shocking to expect at least one of the korean finalists to repeat this feat?
Oz is the outlier, but considering it a shock if either of the two finalists from (by far) the strongest region make it to the Ro4 in a 16 man tournament is kind of naive imo.
This season final is really stacked, though. I don't see dear or soo being knocked out as much of an upset if it happens by someone like jaedong, soulkey, trap, polt, maru or even mma, who is on fire atm.
I don't really imagine Oz getting far at all and if he does, THAT will be the upset.
On October 22 2013 00:32 Acrofales wrote: This season final is really stacked, though. I don't see dear or soo being knocked out as much of an upset if it happens by someone like jaedong, soulkey, trap, maru or even mma, who is on fire atm.
I don't really imagine Oz getting far at all and if he does, THAT will be the upset.
soO's ZvZ looked impressive, I doubt either jaedong or soulkey can take him out. I would put Dear above anyone that made it honestly. He's already beat maru and trap, and proved his PvZ superiority all of last season. I think people understimate how much harder WCS KR is than the other regions.
We'll see when the brackets/groups are released. Hopefully Dear soO and Oz all in the same group ^^ haha
On October 22 2013 00:32 Acrofales wrote: This season final is really stacked, though. I don't see dear or soo being knocked out as much of an upset if it happens by someone like jaedong, soulkey, trap, maru or even mma, who is on fire atm.
I don't really imagine Oz getting far at all and if he does, THAT will be the upset.
soO's ZvZ looked impressive, I doubt either jaedong or soulkey can take him out. I would put Dear above anyone that made it honestly. He's already beat maru and trap, and proved his PvZ superiority all of last season. I think people understimate how much harder WCS KR is than the other regions.
We'll see when the brackets/groups are released. Hopefully Dear soO and Oz all in the same group ^^ haha
Yea I think aligulac has Dear and soO pretty heavily underrated, so I would say my 70% chance for Naniwa is a bit generous.
Revival's chances of making Blizzcon are also underrated. His chance of getting top two in the Challenger League AM is way more than 50%. He is one of the better players. This makes a tiebreaker more likely, and reduces Naniwa's Chances.
On October 22 2013 01:09 Saumure wrote: So basically, how can Naniwa still miss blizzcon?
On October 21 2013 13:44 Iceman331 wrote: In case anyone wants the specific scenarios, Naniwa is knocked out if any 2 of the following happen:
Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is.
Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens.
Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first.
Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result.
On October 22 2013 01:09 Saumure wrote: So basically, how can Naniwa still miss blizzcon?
There are 16 participants in the world season finals. 8 of them are above Naniwa in the standings currently, the other 8 are below.
The ones that are below need varying degrees of success to surpass Naniwa, but all of them need to at least reach the semis. The "goal" for each of them (when it comes to surpassing naniwa) has been summarized in other people's posts.
So to answer your question:
- If 2 or more out of these 8 people reach their "goal", Naniwa is automatically out. - If 0 of these 8 people reach their "goal", Naniwa is automatically in. - If exactly 1 of these 8 players reaches his goal, it gets a little complicated. This is because Revival still has to play his challenger league group, and if he gets top 2, he gets 25 extra points and is tied with Naniwa, in what will in this scenario be the 16th place. In this case, nobody knows how the place will be decided.
In general, Naniwa wants the people above him (the likes of Hero, JD, MC, Dudkdeok, MMA etc) to take the semi-finals' spots, while the rest (especially Dear, Soo, Oz) don't make it there.
On October 22 2013 01:09 Saumure wrote: So basically, how can Naniwa still miss blizzcon?
There are 16 participants in the world season finals. 8 of them are above Naniwa in the standings currently, the other 8 are below.
The ones that are below need varying degrees of success to surpass Naniwa, but all of them need to at least reach the semis. The "goal" for each of them (when it comes to surpassing naniwa) has been summarized in other people's posts.
So to answer your question:
- If 2 or more out of these 8 people reach their "goal", Naniwa is automatically out. - If 0 of these 8 people reach their "goal", Naniwa is automatically in. - If exactly 1 of these 8 players reaches his goal, it gets a little complicated. This is because Revival still has to play his challenger league group, and if he gets top 2, he gets 25 extra points and is tied with Naniwa, in what will in this scenario be the 16th place. In this case, nobody knows how the place will be decided.
In general, Naniwa wants the people above him (the likes of Hero, JD, MC, Dudkdeok, MMA etc) to take the semi-finals' spots, while the rest (especially Dear, Soo, Oz) don't make it there.
MVP is listed as 100% chance of going to the finals. However, I thought I found one possible scenario where MVP gets knocked out. It seems highly unlikely, but the existence of a possible situation would lower his chance to 99.99 something, I would think.
The scenario is: - duckdeok reaches the QFs of S3 finals and is eliminated. This allows his to leapfrog MVP, and puts MVP at #12. - 4 of the 8 participants who are outside the top 16 all do well enough to leapfrog MVP as well. One possible outcome for this would be the top 4 places going to Oz, soO, Dear and VortiX.
Edit: I just realized the above scenario would be for knocking out aLive (which would also result in knocking out MVP). Knocking out MVP requires a slightly more complicated but also slightly more likely outcome. If duckdeok leapfrogs MVP, it only takes 3 players from the group of 8 S3 finals participants who are "on the outside looking in".
On October 22 2013 02:47 mvdunecats wrote: MVP is listed as 100% chance of going to the finals. However, I thought I found one possible scenario where MVP gets knocked out. It seems highly unlikely, but the existence of a possible situation would lower his chance to 99.99 something, I would think.
The scenario is: - duckdeok reaches the QFs of S3 finals and is eliminated. This allows his to leapfrog MVP, and puts MVP at #12. - 4 of the 8 participants who are outside the top 16 all do well enough to leapfrog MVP as well. One possible outcome for this would be the top 4 places going to Oz, soO, Dear and VortiX.
Edit: I just realized the above scenario would be for knocking out aLive (which would also result in knocking out MVP). Knocking out MVP requires a slightly more complicated but also slightly more likely outcome. If duckdeok leapfrogs MVP, it only takes 3 players from the group of 8 S3 finals participants who are "on the outside looking in".
I think you have your numbers slightly wrong; Dear, soO and VortiX are all more than 1000 points behind Mvp, so they would have to get to the finals to pass him, and of course getting 3 people to the finals can't happen. Keep in mind when looking at the liquipedia standings that they have already been credited with the minimum +500 points for S3 finals, so finishing in the RO4 only gets them another 1000 points.
On October 22 2013 02:47 mvdunecats wrote: MVP is listed as 100% chance of going to the finals. However, I thought I found one possible scenario where MVP gets knocked out. It seems highly unlikely, but the existence of a possible situation would lower his chance to 99.99 something, I would think.
The scenario is: - duckdeok reaches the QFs of S3 finals and is eliminated. This allows his to leapfrog MVP, and puts MVP at #12. - 4 of the 8 participants who are outside the top 16 all do well enough to leapfrog MVP as well. One possible outcome for this would be the top 4 places going to Oz, soO, Dear and VortiX.
Edit: I just realized the above scenario would be for knocking out aLive (which would also result in knocking out MVP). Knocking out MVP requires a slightly more complicated but also slightly more likely outcome. If duckdeok leapfrogs MVP, it only takes 3 players from the group of 8 S3 finals participants who are "on the outside looking in".
Plenty wrong with this. Getting to the Ro4 wouldn't put any of those players listed above MVP
In the past seasons, 1st place was worth 3000 points, 2nd place was 2000 points, and 3rd and 4th place were 1500 points. Is season 3 finals worth less than the previous two seasons?
Edit: I took a closer look at what Yakikorosu said and I realized my mistake. Thanks, Yakikorosu.
On October 22 2013 04:08 mvdunecats wrote: In the past seasons, 1st place was worth 3000 points, 2nd place was 2000 points, and 3rd and 4th place were 1500 points. Is season 3 finals worth less than the previous two seasons?
They should be the same. But, for example, if Oz gets 3-4th place, he'll earn 1500 points and have 3350 points which isn't enough to pass Mvp. So Mvp can be passed only by duckdeok and two top2 finishers of season finals which isn't enough to get him out of top16.
EPT
