EPTI would've thought for sure winning WCS NA again would have put Polt at #1 world rank.
I guess Global Finals are worth the most points?
Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 52
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volta1
13 Posts
I would've thought for sure winning WCS NA again would have put Polt at #1 world rank. I guess Global Finals are worth the most points? | ||
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Dodgin
Canada39254 Posts
On October 21 2013 13:41 volta1 wrote: Do you have a listing of what tournament positions award how many points? I would've thought for sure winning WCS NA again would have put Polt at #1 world rank. I guess Global Finals are worth the most points? http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series/Standings | ||
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Iceman331
United States1306 Posts
Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is. Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens. Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first. Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 21 2013 13:40 FiWiFaKi wrote: How are you so on the ball for every update? ;o And don't you need to run the simulation once you have the result? O__o Or do you pre-run it for both outcomes and post it? How long does it take to run the 15,000,000 simulations? It takes about half an hour to 45 minutes. Usually when I see someone winning a series or playing better I'll just start doing the run assuming they'll win, like I did with Polt. | ||
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slowbacontron
United States7722 Posts
On October 21 2013 13:40 FiWiFaKi wrote: How are you so on the ball for every update? ;o And don't you need to run the simulation once you have the result? O__o Or do you pre-run it for both outcomes and post it? How long does it take to run the 15,000,000 simulations? Yeah I think he predicted the Polt win like he did for the semis lol | ||
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Aegeis
United States1619 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 21 2013 13:44 Iceman331 wrote: In case anyone wants the specific scenarios, Naniwa is knocked out if any 2 of the following happen: Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make Round of 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is. Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens. Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first. Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result. Your Duckdeok scenario isn't quite the whole story. -------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.021% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 68.072%. Duckdeok is at 14th place now so he needs 3 people to pass him, not just 2. | ||
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Iceman331
United States1306 Posts
On October 21 2013 13:47 Die4Ever wrote: Your Duckdeok scenario isn't quite the whole story. -------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.021% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 68.072%. Duckdeok is at 14th place now so he needs 3 people to pass him, not just 2. Oh crap, you're right. Looking at it again, I believe soO can tie Duckdeok with 3/4th, and Oz can pass him with 3/4th. So one of those, plus two of the results I mentioned above would have to happen. Edit: Oh and duckdeok has to lose in Ro16. | ||
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Kheve
323 Posts
That said, he is quite safe at 14th as to hope for 3 of those things happening is kinda like hitting a lottery with Soulkey, Maru 2.0, Polt, Jaedong and MMA 3.0 around. | ||
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XtreMe_au
Australia412 Posts
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Mevious
Canada150 Posts
LET'S DO THIS | ||
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doffe
Sweden636 Posts
On October 21 2013 14:58 Mevious wrote: MVP 100% NOW LET'S DO THIS where you afraid for him when he was 99.32587328578 ? :D | ||
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Kakaru2
198 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 21 2013 15:13 Kakaru2 wrote: What program you use to run a Monte Carlo simulation? I wrote it myself | ||
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Negius
Netherlands290 Posts
On October 21 2013 15:12 doffe wrote: where you afraid for him when he was 99.32587328578 ? :D I'm shamed to say I was... | ||
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Salivanth
Australia1071 Posts
On October 21 2013 13:44 Iceman331 wrote: In case anyone wants the specific scenarios, Naniwa is knocked out if any 2 of the following happen: Byul, Genius, Hack or Trap finish first. Vortix makes the top 2. Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4. Whatever the deal with Revival and tiebreakers is. Revival is knocked out if any one of those happens. Duckdeok is knocked out if: One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO finishes second AND, One of Vortix, Oz, Dear, soO, Genius, Byul, Trap, or Hack finishes first. Feel free to double check me on that, but I believe those are all the possible scenarios. Obviously, the person replacing the on knocked out is the person with the mentioned result. Okay, that's pretty fantastic for Naniwa. Oz, Dear or soO making Top 4 seems fairly likely, but I'd be very surprised if either of the other two happened. | ||
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Kheve
323 Posts
On October 21 2013 15:12 doffe wrote: where you afraid for him when he was 99.32587328578 ? :D He was rlly under threat back when rain. scarlett hyun etc were still in running for a season finals spot. Not to mention the last minute revival iem new york seed. | ||
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vthree
Hong Kong8039 Posts
On October 21 2013 17:32 Salivanth wrote: Okay, that's pretty fantastic for Naniwa. Oz, Dear or soO making Top 4 seems fairly likely, but I'd be very surprised if either of the other two happened. I think you might be reading it incorrectly Oz, Dear, or soO make top 4 is actually 3 seperate conditions. Which means is 2 out of Dear, soO or Oz make Ro4, Naniwa and Revival are out. It really depends whether Dear and soO can retain their GSL forms to overseas. | ||
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ffadicted
United States3545 Posts
On October 21 2013 17:32 Salivanth wrote: Okay, that's pretty fantastic for Naniwa. Oz, Dear or soO making Top 4 seems fairly likely, but I'd be very surprised if either of the other two happened. note the "or" on those sentences. If two of Dear/soO/Oz make it to Ro4, nani is 100% out. If only one makes it, it's still up in the air on wtf is gonna happen with the revival tiebreaker. Naniwa's chances are not as good as ppl are making it out to be tbh | ||
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Stoffelhase
Germany162 Posts
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