EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 59
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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grigorin
Austria275 Posts
when will next update be? after RO16? | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On October 26 2013 06:59 Elite_ wrote: Trap, Genius, and Hack all have to win the season finals to pass him... Dear is the only one you have to worry about so far. >_> If they make it to ro8, they account for 3/8 of the players. All players being equal that gives them a 37.5% chance of one of them winning. Add in Dear making it to the ro4, which seems very possible, and Naniwa is out. | ||
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BaneRiders
Sweden3630 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
Edit: Whoops, forgot about Byul. He also needs to win against Duckdeok. | ||
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
On October 26 2013 08:00 Ghanburighan wrote: Edit: Whoops, forgot about Byul. He also needs to win against Duckdeok. Are you sure? ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/oJ51mL7.png) edit - lol I misread your post. D: | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 26 2013 07:16 grigorin wrote: edit: ooops wrong thread.... when will next update be? after RO16? After Maru vs soO  I just finished adding in support for partial group results, so that allows me to run the stats halfway through a group now. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
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Sandermatt
Switzerland1365 Posts
On October 26 2013 09:41 Die4Ever wrote: After Maru vs soO I just finished adding in support for partial group results, so that allows me to run the stats halfway through a group now. MAyb you don't need 15000000 runs now so te simulation runs faster. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:00 Sandermatt wrote: MAyb you don't need 15000000 runs now so te simulation runs faster. Yea I forgot to change that. Next one will probably be 10,000,000 runs instead, and still 4,000,000 for looking for events. Update posted with the first 2 matches for every ro16 group. So Polt vs Hack and MC vs Soulkey, but not yet Hack vs MC, etc. | ||
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Sandermatt
Switzerland1365 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:11 Die4Ever wrote: Yea I forgot to change that. Next one will probably be 10,000,000 runs instead, and still 4,000,000 for looking for events. Update posted with the first 2 matches for every ro16 group. So Polt vs Hack and MC vs Soulkey, but not yet Hack vs MC, etc. If you went down to 4000000 you might be able to update after each match and still be accurate enough. | ||
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:15 Sandermatt wrote: If you went down to 4000000 you might be able to update after each match and still be accurate enough. Once groups are done, yea the possibilities will be greatly reduced. | ||
The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:20 The_Templar wrote: why did duckdeok go up to 100%? O.o Because he gained 250 points in the last hour or two. | ||
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bertu
Brazil871 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:20 Elite_ wrote: Because he gained 250 points in the last hour or two. Oh yeah, forgot 9-12th place gets more points than 13-16th points | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:20 The_Templar wrote: why did duckdeok go up to 100%? O.o Him winning his first match, also some of the (according to aligulac at least) upsets, could have driven his chances from 99.8388% up to something really really close to 100%. Here is what it said for him before today - 14. duckdeok, 14975821/15000000, minimum 3300 points, needs at least 3300 points, 99.8388% + Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] + duckdeok starts in the round of 16 in Season 3 Finals facing ByuL, Maru Prime, soO duckdeok loses this match 52.892% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 99.693%. duckdeok wins this match 47.108% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 100.000%. -------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.017% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 48.872%. -------------------------------------------ByuL gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.015% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 45.516%. -------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------VortiX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.007% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 88.406%. -------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.411% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 87.607%. -------------------------------------------Hack gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.426% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 92.985%. -------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.242% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 93.361%. -------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.374% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 93.532%. -------------------------------------------ByuL gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.127% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 93.651%. -------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.022% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 97.481%. -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.939% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 98.268%. -------------------------------------------Hack gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.522% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 98.956%. -------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.018% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 99.004%. -------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.137% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 99.042%. -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 10.803% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 98.722%. -------------------------------------------ByuL gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.636% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 99.222%. -------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 5.892% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 98.958%. -------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------VortiX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.193% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 99.042%. -------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 22.759% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 99.381%. -------------------------------------------Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 56.474% of the time. When it does, it increases duckdeok's chances to 99.991%. -------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 6.008% of the time. When it does, it decreases duckdeok's chances to 99.227%. So yea even if he loses his group he still will almost certainly qualify. | ||
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:21 The_Templar wrote: Oh yeah, forgot 9-12th place gets more points than 13-16th points Yeah, you get used to checking this thread and the lack of "_____ gets 12th place" in the changes is a bit misleading.  | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 26 2013 10:21 The_Templar wrote: Oh yeah, forgot 9-12th place gets more points than 13-16th points Ah I also forgot lol. Ok I guess he is confirmed 100%, maybe someone else can verify. I gotta go out sorry guys, maybe be back soon. If not I'll run stats before day 2 starts. | ||
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