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Someone on Reddit asked:
I'd be interested to see winrates vs T once there are large numbers of widow mines out. Watching GM streams, it feels like the rate is around 10%, and the mines are allowing (relatively) mediocre players to beat Top8 Zergs nearly every time.....
I thought the answer would be of interest to you all.
GGTracker has 961 Masters TvZ HotS 1v1 Ladder replays.
In 616 of those, the Terran produces 10 or fewer widow mines, and wins 49% of the time. In the other 345 games, the Terran produces more than 10 widow mines, and wins 59% of the time.
Of course this doesn't exactly prove that Widow Mines are OP, but at the very least it suggests that getting/preventing mass widow mines is an important part of TvZ.
More stats:
+ Show Spoiler +
Interesting findings from the above stats:
- mass widow mines is much more prevalent in TvZ than in TvT or TvP
- in TvZ, mass widow mine usage increases with league
Here are Masters 1v1 TvZ games
And here are Masters 1v1 Ladder TvZs with at least 10 widow mines at 15 minutes
EDIT:
Here are winrates for Master 1v1 Ladder TvZ, grouped by what % of the Terran's Active Army resources were devoted to Widow Mines at 15:00.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/8Y75XGl.png)
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So this is like the spider mines of bw? (The more spider mines, the more wins)
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GGTracker has 961 Masters TvZ HotS 1v1 Ladder replays.
In 616 of those, the Terran produces 10 or fewer widow mines, and wins 49% of the time. In the other 345 games, the Terran produces more than 10 widow mines, and wins 59% of the time.
49/51 perhaps?
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Out of curiousity, why did you set the cut off at 10? Did you use a certain build to determine that number? I haven't played or watched much hots yet, so if there is a pretty standard mass widow mine build i feel that should be used as a cutoff.
Still interested that more widow mines is correlated with more wins. But, correlafion doesn't mean causation, especially in an infant metagame.
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Pretty big selection bias? Games where T is winning already are much more likely to have 10+ widow mines, as the pushes would not get shut down and so the mines never get mopped up.
A 10% difference is nothing really if you consider any statistical effects.
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One thing I would point out is that a player who remembers to make mines consistently throughout a game is probably a higher level player than someone who doesn't. This is reflected in the statistic that 36% of TvZs at Masters level has 10+ widows mines compared to only 22% in Diamond.
At the same time though, the fact that using 10+ widow mines adds almost 10% to your winrate across ALL LEVELS is indicative of how good widow mines at.
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On April 08 2013 10:05 Bippzy wrote:
Out of curiousity, why did you set the cut off at 10?
10 is as high as I can count.
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On April 08 2013 10:06 BaaL` wrote:
Pretty big selection bias? Games where T is winning already are much more likely to have 10+ widow mines, as the pushes would not get shut down and so the mines never get mopped up.
A 10% difference is nothing really if you consider any statistical effects.
Statistical effects doesn't play into this since the data was not sampled from a larger set. You could say that the GM level games does not have enough data points to justify a conclusion, but it's a 10% difference across all levels.
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On April 08 2013 10:05 Bippzy wrote:
Out of curiousity, why did you set the cut off at 10? Did you use a certain build to determine that number? I haven't played or watched much hots yet, so if there is a pretty standard mass widow mine build i feel that should be used as a cutoff.
Still interested that more widow mines is correlated with more wins. But, correlafion doesn't mean causation, especially in an infant metagame.
I think most builds that don't use mass widow mines will have 2 or 3 widow mines in each base, and maybe 1 for each counter attack route. After that I would assume Terrans would switch the factory to a tech lab and produce tanks, but I have yet to see a pro game where this happens since tanks aren't really viable anymore in TvZ.
I have a feeling it's actually the medivac's boost that is causing Terran to have a higher winrate. Games where Terran has less than 10 widow mines probably mean that they are playing at a disadvantage, either economically or in terms of unit comp since well used vipers pretty much rape tanks.
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On April 08 2013 10:06 BaaL` wrote:
Games where T is winning already are much more likely to have 10+ widow mines
These stats are for >10 widow mines produced. They don't all have to be alive at the same time.
That said, I agree that there absolutely must be some selection bias effect here, and correlation is not causation. However I thought the stats were still interesting. In particular, two effects that seem beyond the dread reach of selection bias are:
- the relative absence of widow mines in TvP and TvT, and
- the increasing presence of widow mines in higher league TvZ
Both of those facts suggest that the players themselves think mass widow mines are useful for TvZ. So it's at least a quantitative statement on the state of the metagame. Perhaps obvious to people who watch high-level TvZ a lot, but it's nice to see stats to back up what people say.
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On April 08 2013 10:06 BaaL` wrote:
Pretty big selection bias? Games where T is winning already are much more likely to have 10+ widow mines, as the pushes would not get shut down and so the mines never get mopped up.
A 10% difference is nothing really if you consider any statistical effects.
Please, explain the statistical effects that make a 10% difference, really nothing.
Because 10% is huge.
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On April 08 2013 10:09 denzelz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2013 10:06 BaaL` wrote:
Pretty big selection bias? Games where T is winning already are much more likely to have 10+ widow mines, as the pushes would not get shut down and so the mines never get mopped up.
A 10% difference is nothing really if you consider any statistical effects. Statistical effects doesn't play into this since the data was not sampled from a larger set. You could say that the GM level games does not have enough data points to justify a conclusion, but it's a 10% difference across all levels.
Do you understand statistics? He is not talking about the sample size, he is mentioning that games in which the Terran has 10+ Widow Mines usually means the Terran is already winning.
That's the essence of sampling bias. What if I went to Wings of Liberty, found all the games where the Zerg has 30 Brood Lords and calculated the win rate? It would probably be 95% win rate for the Zerg. This tells us nothing because a Zerg with 30 Brood Lords has already won. Unless the players played "no rush 30 minutes", no Zerg player is able to produce 30 Brood Lords without a significant advantage.
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To be honest 10 is not THAT many if you see HTOMario's replays lol....he builds like 16 or more IIRC.
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10 widow mines are not a lot, I'd love if zerg could build 10 roaches and up our win rate by 10%  .
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On April 08 2013 10:05 Bippzy wrote:
Out of curiousity, why did you set the cut off at 10? Did you use a certain build to determine that number? I haven't played or watched much hots yet, so if there is a pretty standard mass widow mine build i feel that should be used as a cutoff.
Still interested that more widow mines is correlated with more wins. But, correlafion doesn't mean causation, especially in an infant metagame.
Because choosing 10 shows his point wheras 5 or 20 may not. The number you pick makes a big differences in the picture you want to paint. (source: 10 years in pharma research with some very manipulative colleagues)
Protoss in broodwar that get 200 supply carrier/arbiter/obs have ~100% win rate vs terran. Zerg in WOL with 20+ Broodlords and 10+ Infestors have ~80% win rate vs terran.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
i do not think this is grounds for any good conclusion whatsoever
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I'd like to have the Terran winrates where less than 10 SVCs are built.
That would be equally interesting.
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On April 08 2013 10:19 opterown wrote:
i do not think this is grounds for any good conclusion whatsoever
It isn't credible at all
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On April 08 2013 10:13 Entirety wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2013 10:09 denzelz wrote:On April 08 2013 10:06 BaaL` wrote:
Pretty big selection bias? Games where T is winning already are much more likely to have 10+ widow mines, as the pushes would not get shut down and so the mines never get mopped up.
A 10% difference is nothing really if you consider any statistical effects. Statistical effects doesn't play into this since the data was not sampled from a larger set. You could say that the GM level games does not have enough data points to justify a conclusion, but it's a 10% difference across all levels. Do you understand statistics? He is not talking about the sample size, he is mentioning that games in which the Terran has 10+ Widow Mines usually means the Terran is already winning. That's the essence of sampling bias. What if I went to Wings of Liberty, found all the games where the Zerg has 30 Brood Lords and calculated the win rate? It would probably be 95% win rate for the Zerg. This tells us nothing because a Zerg with 30 Brood Lords has already won. Unless the players played "no rush 30 minutes", no Zerg player is able to produce 30 Brood Lords without a significant advantage.
Okay first, this isn't about a moment when the Terran has 10+ Widow as BaaL' suggests, it is when Terran produces 10 or more Widow Mines in a game. So the Terran pushes might be "getting shut down" left and right and the Terran may have no more than 1 Widow Mine at a time, but that is irrelevant, it only focuses on production.
In other words, the focus is correctly on whether or not the Terran is committing to Widow Mines. And so there is no "selection bias" as he suggests.
Second, comparing Widow Mines to Brood Lords is silly. 10 Widow Mines cost exactly as much as 10 Roaches, which 750-250. It isn't a lot over a the span of a game, and they can be Reactored. So it isn't like "well he has 10 Widow Mines, thus the game is already won."
So what we see is that people who make a lot of Widow Mines (10+) win 10% more games. That is pretty impressive.
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In my opinion the game should be balanced around the highest level of play, not based on master league stats.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/JIgXeQb.png)
