|
On August 28 2012 22:32 Tao367 wrote:
I really like what you've done with this plugin. However I get the feeling it's quite a way off for me. I am at the top of my league, and am over the points that blizzard said in their previous posts is the rough level for promotion. However, according to the graph I am nowhere near the promotion line. I deleted all my game data and it's saying the same. I'm about 200 mmr off the promotion line which, going by the points in game I should be very near or over.
This is however off 2 matches, is it possible it just needs more games to become more accurate?
Top of you league means you talk about points. And also only in comparison for your tier.
Points say nothing about your real mmr or your skill.
Its even in the FAQ! Top of your devision in battlenet say nothing about how good you are in sc2.
Thats the reason i wrote this tool in the first place.
Blizzard post about promotion line:
How should i say it?...it has a lot in common with the Cake in Portal !
The data is over a years old, did only fit one server and was calculated for different bonus-pool.
They just repost it every season and even back then, its was wrong.
We believed in it in the beginning until we could prove its wrong.
I dont know if they want to troll us, if the guy who posted it did not know what he was talking about, if they dont understand their own system or if they just repost data from beta days that's total outdated.
But this numbers are just bullshit.
This does not mean i am always accurate. I need some games to get accurate and there can be mistakes.
However, before you judge me on points or the numbers blizzard published you can judge me on structure of the dirt, you find in your tea cap. Its equal accurate... 
On August 29 2012 01:43 Fossa wrote:
76 mmr away from average masters promotion, so close!
So you are 76 mmr-points away of a random number that put in by blizzard because it fits 2.01% of all players at the end of the beta.
If you are above this random line you get a ... Icon. Just a little picture, thats it.
If you are 76 points higher are you a better player? yes you are! Also if you are 43 points higher.
There is no need to hunt this random offsets. But i understand it nice if you set yourself a goal.
|
20 mmr from masters now, i think it's reasonably accurate
|
On August 30 2012 03:05 Fossa wrote:
20 mmr from masters now, i think it's reasonably accurate
you play master opponents. In this case its not hard to be accurate.
Diamond and bronce games are the real task ^^
|
How accurate are the league lines supposed to be? The platinum league line is 1280 according the the graph, but I just got promoted with what the tool says is 1190 MMR. That doesn't even fall within the +/- 50 
|
On August 30 2012 13:41 DarkLordFoxx wrote:How accurate are the league lines supposed to be? The platinum league line is 1280 according the the graph, but I just got promoted with what the tool says is 1190 MMR. That doesn't even fall within the +/- 50
See post below.
|
Date: 30-8
Bug in the ladder system
- Blizzard forgot to lock the leagues ingame at correct time but locked the websever at right time -
The data of last 4-5 days can be wrong.
They fixed the mistake on NA (let the session run longer than planed) but not for EU!
You can mark possible bad games as bad with the "Data-Editor" in the settings menü!
Data from today on NA IS FINE AGAIN!
Data from EU IS STILL BUGED!
PS:
Another one to add to my long Bnet-Ladder-Bug list.
I have the feeling that half of program is backcalcuating mmr and the other half is fixing blizzards bugs...
|
Ahh this explains why my ladder experience wasn't matching my reported mmr! I have so many games to mark as bad
|
Skeldark, do we need to mark the games from the last 4-5 days as bad? If we don't will the plugin automatically fix the rating when it has a 100% game? Basically, can some earlier unmarked bad games throw the plugin off if we have some good games after?
|
EU Fixed too.
All back to normal.
Lets see how normal the lock will be...
On August 31 2012 05:46 Whirligig wrote:Ahh this explains why my ladder experience wasn't matching my reported mmr! I have so many games to mark as bad
On August 31 2012 14:26 FCLogan wrote:
Skeldark, do we need to mark the games from the last 4-5 days as bad? If we don't will the plugin automatically fix the rating when it has a 100% game? Basically, can some earlier unmarked bad games throw the plugin off if we have some good games after?
The problem is that the last good games are not really good.
Over time it will fix itself but you need a lot of good games to compensate the mistake.
Marking the buggy ones bad, makes it easier for the analyser to fix it.
So you dont have to but i speed up the repair process.
Ladder -system still buggy.
You perhaps heard from gm guys play silver guys and other strange stuff.
This happens often last days. Something is wrong with the "opponent finder" but the rating is ok again.
|
On August 26 2012 06:33 skeldark wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 01:43 beniblanco wrote:
Hi,
Today my MMR has lost 50 points without any reason. Comparing with an old screenshot I can see my mmr curve moving form 750 avg to 700...
Is there a reason for that?
Thanks,
Nicolas what means without any reason? without playing a game? when winning a game or when loosing? a) can be that there where missing games before b) what fclogan said. (but the opponent mmr is not used in my analyser anymore) c) you are lower league, where the data can be a little bit off because of inaccurate tieroffsets. In the end, 50 is in my error margin of lower leagues. The graph should stabilise again. If you have this more often, message me again and i will calculate the global data again and look at your graph. ( an update of my global database takes over an hour now)
I have lost some points because of losing some games, but suddentlty this is all my curve that looses 50 pts.
Let say for example I was between 870 (my highest score) and 600 (my lowest score), then after the change my range was between 820-550.
I am silver from a month now, and the mmr that was quiet correct (mmr around 800), now tells me that I am around 750 (in other words bronze lvl)
|
On September 01 2012 09:14 beniblanco wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 06:33 skeldark wrote:On August 26 2012 01:43 beniblanco wrote:
Hi,
Today my MMR has lost 50 points without any reason. Comparing with an old screenshot I can see my mmr curve moving form 750 avg to 700...
Is there a reason for that?
Thanks,
Nicolas what means without any reason? without playing a game? when winning a game or when loosing? a) can be that there where missing games before b) what fclogan said. (but the opponent mmr is not used in my analyser anymore) c) you are lower league, where the data can be a little bit off because of inaccurate tieroffsets. In the end, 50 is in my error margin of lower leagues. The graph should stabilise again. If you have this more often, message me again and i will calculate the global data again and look at your graph. ( an update of my global database takes over an hour now) I have lost some points because of losing some games, but suddentlty this is all my curve that looses 50 pts. Let say for example I was between 870 (my highest score) and 600 (my lowest score), then after the change my range was between 820-550. I am silver from a month now, and the mmr that was quiet correct (mmr around 800), now tells me that I am around 750 (in other words bronze lvl)
The analyser is not calculating every game on his own, he calculate the whole information at once.
This means, he adjust the whole graph if the new information fits better this way.
It is way more complex than an simple function for each game.
You can say, he is a learning algorithm. ( thats why i call him he not it )
Normally i would say:
He adjust the graph with more games = the new data is correct, the old was not accurate.
But as you can see in the op there was a bug in the ladder system last days.
The data of last week can be wrong. Mark them as bad with the Dataeditor.
|
Ok today something strange happened, yesterday i had like 1588 mmr, today i win one game and suddenly everything and by everything i mean literally every game i played in the past 3 days went up for 100 points. Can someone explain  ?
|
On September 01 2012 22:16 thOr6136 wrote:Ok today something strange happened, yesterday i had like 1588 mmr, today i win one game and suddenly everything and by everything i mean literally every game i played in the past 3 days went up for 100 points. Can someone explain ?
read the post above yours ...
In your case he noticed that the games of the past are wrong and try to adjust.
But you should still mark the games of last days as bad to be more accurate or he need many games to compensate the mistake fully.
|
Hi, I'm having some trouble getting this working. Here's the log info:
+ Show Spoiler +MMR-Calculator 1.3 Timeclient successfull -------------------------------------------------- Pretrigger Start Ramscanner: name1 : Ramscanner: id1 : Ramscanner: name2 : Ramscanner: id2 : Fatal Error: Can it be that you selected the wrong active Account?! Webgrabber: Preplayer 1 failed! Webgrabber: Preplayer 2 failed! Pretrigger END! -------------------------------------------------- Posttrigger Start Webgrabber Postplayer1 failed! Webgrabber Postplayer2 failed! PREPLAYER 1: --- PLAYERSTART VALID: false --- Error_Mes: ERROR: cant grab site 1! playername: - id: 0 playerlink: server: US league: ERROR division_name: ERROR gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR totalbonuspool: 1881 Wins: -9999 Looses: -9999 points: -9999 bonus: -9999 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 offset: 0 offsetknown: false mmr: -9999 PLAYEREND PREPLAYER 2: --- PLAYERSTART VALID: false --- Error_Mes: ERROR: cant grab site 1! playername: - id: 0 playerlink: server: US league: ERROR division_name: ERROR gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR totalbonuspool: 1881 Wins: -9999 Looses: -9999 points: -9999 bonus: -9999 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 offset: 0 offsetknown: false mmr: -9999 PLAYEREND POSTPLAYER 1: --- PLAYERSTART VALID: false --- Error_Mes: ERROR: cant grab site 3! http://US.battle.netERROR2playername: ObiWanPwnobi id: 680105 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/680105/1/ObiWanPwnobi/server: US league: ERROR division_name: ERROR gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR totalbonuspool: 1881 Wins: -9999 Looses: -9999 points: -9999 bonus: -9999 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 offset: 0 offsetknown: false mmr: -9999 PLAYEREND POSTPLAYER 2: --- PLAYERSTART VALID: false --- Error_Mes: ERROR: cant grab site 3! http://US.battle.netERROR2playername: Lelouch id: 988751 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/988751/1/Lelouch/server: US league: ERROR division_name: ERROR gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR totalbonuspool: 1881 Wins: -9999 Looses: -9999 points: -9999 bonus: -9999 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 offset: 0 offsetknown: false mmr: -9999 PLAYEREND Dataset: --- GAMESTART --- TIME: 1346703755086 VALID: false ERROR: Both players invalid Player1_won true --- GAMEEND --- End posttrigger
I have the right profile link, and the replays are autosaving correctly. I also checked that I have the right account selected in the active account menu. Any help would be appreciated
Edit: Nm, I got it working.
|
Question for you... I've been hovering around what I think is a near promotion to diamond, and am manually looking at the points after matches I play, trying to get an idea of how favored or unfavored I was in the match relative to the opponents league, the points I got, and their past match history who they played against and how many points they won/lost for it...
I'm playing a crapton of what seem to be mid-to-high diamond (heck even one top 8 in a seemingly old division), and the mid diamonds I'm playing against, I'm very slightly favored in that I'm getting 11 points for a win vs some, and they're also playing diamonds regularly in their recent matches, and getting 11 points for wins themselves.
I don't know if my data is a little goofy, or what... a few weeks ago I deleted all my data thinking that might clear it up, but it didn't seem to (first game it got a "good match" and put me right back in the same spot).
NA server, char Snuck
Any thoughts?
|
On September 04 2012 07:36 barwick11 wrote:
Question for you... I've been hovering around what I think is a near promotion to diamond, and am manually looking at the points after matches I play, trying to get an idea of how favored or unfavored I was in the match relative to the opponents league, the points I got, and their past match history who they played against and how many points they won/lost for it...
I'm playing a crapton of what seem to be mid-to-high diamond (heck even one top 8 in a seemingly old division), and the mid diamonds I'm playing against, I'm very slightly favored in that I'm getting 11 points for a win vs some, and they're also playing diamonds regularly in their recent matches, and getting 11 points for wins themselves.
I don't know if my data is a little goofy, or what... a few weeks ago I deleted all my data thinking that might clear it up, but it didn't seem to (first game it got a "good match" and put me right back in the same spot).
NA server, char Snuck
Any thoughts?
The diamond league has 7 tiers with an offset of around 450-500 points (don't recall exact amount) between the top tier and the bottom tier. Basically, even using the inaccurate league point system, a low diamond in a high tier league could very well have more points than a high diamond in a low tier league. Diamond and bronze leagues are the worst leagues to compare points because they both have 7 tiers. You can't know whether you are high or low diamond without seeing the opponents you play. People who consistently play Master players are high diamonds. Those who consistently play plats are low diamond. Those who only play other diamonds for 80% of the games are probably mid diamond.
Based on what you say, it looks like you might be real close to a league promotion. I would not be surprised if you get promoted at the start of the next season after your placement game. Good luck!
|
So, the # of points someone starts the season with depends on what tier in Diamond they start in?
If a 1600 MMR diamond starts in a low tier, he'll have maybe 400 points, but if he starts in the 2nd to highest tier somehow, he'd have maybe 50 points?
|
United States12224 Posts
On September 04 2012 10:27 barwick11 wrote:
So, the # of points someone starts the season with depends on what tier in Diamond they start in?
If a 1600 MMR diamond starts in a low tier, he'll have maybe 400 points, but if he starts in the 2nd to highest tier somehow, he'd have maybe 50 points?
Your MMR at the time of placement determines your tier, and the tiers span small MMR ranges, for example 1400-1450, 1450-1500, 1500-1550, 1550-1600. If you are a 1600 player who is actually 1600 at the time of placement, you'll be in the 1550-1600 tier, and let's say you're capable of earning about 100 points there. However, if you're a 1600 player who slumped a bit and you were 1400 MMR at the time of placement, you'd be in the 1400-1450 tier. But, because you're actually 1600-caliber, you eventually get back to 1600 despite being in the 1400 tier. This makes it easier for you to earn points, up to say 300 to make up the difference.
|
On September 04 2012 10:48 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 10:27 barwick11 wrote:
So, the # of points someone starts the season with depends on what tier in Diamond they start in?
If a 1600 MMR diamond starts in a low tier, he'll have maybe 400 points, but if he starts in the 2nd to highest tier somehow, he'd have maybe 50 points? Your MMR at the time of placement determines your tier, and the tiers span small MMR ranges, for example 1400-1450, 1450-1500, 1500-1550, 1550-1600. If you are a 1600 player who is actually 1600 at the time of placement, you'll be in the 1550-1600 tier, and let's say you're capable of earning about 100 points there. However, if you're a 1600 player who slumped a bit and you were 1400 MMR at the time of placement, you'd be in the 1400-1450 tier. But, because you're actually 1600-caliber, you eventually get back to 1600 despite being in the 1400 tier. This makes it easier for you to earn points, up to say 300 to make up the difference.
I am going to try and simplify this a bit (hopefully I don't fail). If you are in a higher tier diamond division, it is harder to win points because you get less points per win and more points per loss even when your points are really low. This is because in the background, the league matchmaking system considers you a higher tier player (thus the 1600 offet in the above example). If you are in a lower diamond league (e.g. 1400 MMR in Excaliburz's example) you will win more points and lose less points against the same opponents. This means, you can get points easier (given your skill is the same).
Because of this, not all leagues are equal and comparing points outside of your division is very hard. Masters league is the only exception because there is only one tier. Thus, for most people below masters, things like "high" or "low" means very little. Some leagues like silver and gold only have a couple of tiers, but other leagues like bronze and diamond have 7 tiers. Thus, especially for bronze and diamond, the points you have really does not say much about your placement within the league.
Excaliburz's comprehensive ladder post (stickied in this forum) is a great read and breaks down the basics for you. Hopefully with efforts such as the one here, we will be able to make more of the league information transparent.
|
MMR-Caclulate-Theorie aside:
You dont see your skill with league and points.
League dont say much about your skill: A platinum player can be better than a master player.
Points say nothing about your skill!
In other words: the "high" diamond guys you play can be on gold level!
Yes, i use this information to Backcalulate mmr! But if you just look at the ladder you dont know anything about skill!
After you understood excaliburs guide you can make a good guess on your mmr. But its still way less accurate than the graph you see here. What you read in the guide are the basics! What we did here is way more complicated.
Trying to find out how accurate my tool is by looking at points/position/opponent-points/opponent-position of the ladder system, is like trying to find out how accurate your speedmeter in your car is by counting the clouds you pass!
Asking me "When do i get promoted" is like asking me:
"How fast must i drive to pass this cloud? -because i want to find out on the cloud how fast i drive-"
I put the line for the speed you need to pass the cloud, in the graph.
Just to avoid this question! But i still think this questions makes no sense.
----
If you think your graph is wrong, post your server and nickname and i will have a look on it.
If you deleted all your information and got the same result again the result is most likely correct!
Also please check op. There was another bug in the ladder system one week ago, that could screw your data .
On September 04 2012 05:39 cody4375 wrote:
Edit: Nm, I got it working.
Would be nice if you could post what was the solution.
The cant grab site3-error2 looks like an bnet error.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
