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On March 28 2012 04:36 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 04:08 Thrombozyt wrote:On March 28 2012 03:10 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 02:53 Thrombozyt wrote:
I believe his null hypothesis is that race changes are random but there is an equal chance for each race to switch to another. At least that's the only null hypothesis that makes sense.
Plansix is just overlooking a small detail:
This would only work if the sc2ranks numbers are a small subset of a much much much larger bnet population. I'm not entirely sure on that point, but I believe that sc2ranks makes database dumps and therefore catches everyone. Thus there is no margin of error, as we have not statistic. The numbers account for 100% of the population. We do not conclude from a small dataset to an infinite population and thus there is no margin of error calculation needed.
Simply speaking, if I want to divine the number of white balls in a bowl with white, red and black balls in it, I do not need to do statistics, if I can draw each and every ball and simply count.
I have the feeling that 'It's within the margin of error' is his way of discrediting the data and all conclusions drawn from it. Dicrediting is a strong word. The amount of change in the highest leages is so small, it could be almost anything for any race. There are changes, but saying it is for x or y reason has serious pitfalls. If discrediting is a strong word, which weak word would you like to see? Tainting? While I agree, that attributing a reason to the changes is littered with pitfalls, you cannot argue with the fact that the Terran population is decreasing faster than any other race. It's consistent and it's significant. Your 'margin of error' approach doubted that there even was a decline - and it was wrong. I will agree that they are decreasing like every other race. I will even agree that they have had larger decreases. However, I will not agree that anyone has provided conclusive evidence that it is some sort of gameplay difficulty that is the main and overwhelming cause the decrease. Specificlly, I don’t think the highest leagues have the drop off people are describing, since masters has the lowest decrease out of all the leagues for both protoss and terran.
Probably has something to do with the amount of time invested into learning Terran and getting into highmasters/GM, because according to the argument play at high levels is balanced. I can definitely understand/see why lower league terrans would switch or quit, you don't have much invested to even care. With me I cared, I refused to play any other race for a while I just felt like they were too easy but eventually I crumbled, I think there was a day I played only P and in most of my replays I was ahead and then some of the "mechanics" mentioned in this thread came out and raped me. I played T till top diamond, got nerfed kept losing, off racing felt boring to me(IMO felt that neither Z or P take the amount of skill T takes) I'll admit there are thing I would consider some things OP/imbalanced in certain situations, but I feel that towards T that Z and P both have more of these "situations". Now I play usually just my placement match, and I usually get P lose that and call it a day...thank you baby jesus for Dota 2 beta.
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terra got overnerfed thats why i stopped playing at season 3, and yet it shows me i did the right
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On March 28 2012 04:42 Thrombozyt wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 04:36 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 04:08 Thrombozyt wrote:On March 28 2012 03:10 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 02:53 Thrombozyt wrote:
I believe his null hypothesis is that race changes are random but there is an equal chance for each race to switch to another. At least that's the only null hypothesis that makes sense.
Plansix is just overlooking a small detail:
This would only work if the sc2ranks numbers are a small subset of a much much much larger bnet population. I'm not entirely sure on that point, but I believe that sc2ranks makes database dumps and therefore catches everyone. Thus there is no margin of error, as we have not statistic. The numbers account for 100% of the population. We do not conclude from a small dataset to an infinite population and thus there is no margin of error calculation needed.
Simply speaking, if I want to divine the number of white balls in a bowl with white, red and black balls in it, I do not need to do statistics, if I can draw each and every ball and simply count.
I have the feeling that 'It's within the margin of error' is his way of discrediting the data and all conclusions drawn from it. Dicrediting is a strong word. The amount of change in the highest leages is so small, it could be almost anything for any race. There are changes, but saying it is for x or y reason has serious pitfalls. If discrediting is a strong word, which weak word would you like to see? Tainting? While I agree, that attributing a reason to the changes is littered with pitfalls, you cannot argue with the fact that the Terran population is decreasing faster than any other race. It's consistent and it's significant. Your 'margin of error' approach doubted that there even was a decline - and it was wrong. I will agree that they are decreasing like every other race. I will even agree that they have had larger decreases. However, I will not agree that anyone has provided conclusive evidence that it is some sort of gameplay difficulty that is the main and overwhelming cause the decrease. Specificlly, I don’t think the highest leagues have the drop off people are describing, since masters has the lowest decrease out of all the leagues for both protoss and terran. @petro: Let him be. It's not an easy distinction to make when statistics apply and what statistics. @plansix So then.. why do you think Terran numbers are decreasing much stronger than the number of the two other races?
Any number of reasons that cannot that we cannot predict or discover. The massive amounts that you are talking about are about 1-3% more drop off that the other races. If the amounts were 7%-10%, I would be with you on the topic. But the amount is so small that I do not believe we can ever really discovery why more terrans leave in that specific period of time. It may be the same reasons anyone leaves or switches races. Do more zerg leave/race change that protoss? Is it the other way around? Do we know why that is?
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On March 28 2012 03:24 darkscream wrote:
purely anecdotal, but since MKP won I have seen a ridiculous surge in terrans. 50%+ of my games are against terrans.
Oh, and they're all doing the same broken, inefficient cheesy builds that marine king does. It's so hard to scout these guys, their buildings make no sense @_@
Yes, Marineking's builds are really ineffient and cheesy, LOL.
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Let's take a moment and actually look at the numbers. I'll take the NA realm that's where I used to play in, feel free to do the same for other realms.
Terran
1.2 1.4.2
M 30.2 28.8 (-1.4)
D 28.0 24.9 (-3.1)
P 30.2 24.3 (-5.9)
(-10.4)
Protoss
1.2 1.4.2
M 32.4 33.3 (+0.9)
D 33.6 31.4 (-2.2)
P 34.2 32.0 (-2.2)
(-3.5)
Zerg
1.2 1.4.2
M 31.1 33.9 (+2.8)
D 27.6 36.7 (+9.1)
P 22.5 34.0 (+11.5)
(+23.4)
So these numbers are just a coincidence? Is that what are you trying to say Plansix?
And to the guy that said Terran was the most played race in the beginning, no it wasn't.
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@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU.
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On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU.
I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason.
My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable.
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On March 28 2012 03:24 darkscream wrote:
purely anecdotal, but since MKP won I have seen a ridiculous surge in terrans. 50%+ of my games are against terrans.
Oh, and they're all doing the same broken, inefficient cheesy builds that marine king does. It's so hard to scout these guys, their buildings make no sense @_@
Yeah his builds are so inefficient... thats why he has a 90% win ratio on the korean server. So inefficient...
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On March 28 2012 06:36 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU. I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason. My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable.
I agree about casual vs non-casual play. This is why I specifically targetting my question ot NA/EU platinum and diamond leagues, where your argument of casual play does not apply. At this level, almost everyone has a set of builds and is familiar with the metagame. Why is a uniquely Terran issue to have such a large population drop at the gold/platinum juncture? Any of your arguments should apply to all races, unless you concede that all races play differently at each league. If so, then it is completely reasonabe to argue that Terrans have a tough time at this level of play. Whether this is true or not, it's hard to say. I'm just struggling to find an alternative explantion. I concede that the lack of another option doesn't prove my point, but I just can't think of any other explanation.
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On March 28 2012 07:07 slane04 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 06:36 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU. I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason. My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable. I agree about casual vs non-casual play. This is why I specifically targetting my question ot NA/EU platinum and diamond leagues, where your argument of casual play does not apply. At this level, almost everyone has a set of builds and is familiar with the metagame. Why is a uniquely Terran issue to have such a large population drop at the gold/platinum juncture? Any of your arguments should apply to all races, unless you concede that all races play differently at each league. If so, then it is completely reasonabe to argue that Terrans have a tough time at this level of play. Whether this is true or not, it's hard to say. I'm just struggling to find an alternative explantion. I concede that the lack of another option doesn't prove my point, but I just can't think of any other explanation.
If the answer exists, it lies in comparisons of populations between T and Z. P and T are very similar in terms of drop-outs, with the exception of Platinum where significantly more T drop out. The difference is, T's also disappear from Master, while Protoss actually increased in population at master level. Zergs, on the other hand, no longer surge into master. Their domination surge loses steam in diamond and is strongest at Platinum level. Random is completely different, with similar decreases in population in higher leagues, but with increases in lower leagues (perhaps this is smurfs having fun?).
As for Plansix, he is clearly just here to derail the thread. There are very few more baseless arguments to make than to say that gold league players don't know builds. And once we demonstrate why that claim is wrong, he'll ignore it and start some other random derailing attempt.
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On March 28 2012 07:54 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 07:07 slane04 wrote:On March 28 2012 06:36 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU. I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason. My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable. I agree about casual vs non-casual play. This is why I specifically targetting my question ot NA/EU platinum and diamond leagues, where your argument of casual play does not apply. At this level, almost everyone has a set of builds and is familiar with the metagame. Why is a uniquely Terran issue to have such a large population drop at the gold/platinum juncture? Any of your arguments should apply to all races, unless you concede that all races play differently at each league. If so, then it is completely reasonabe to argue that Terrans have a tough time at this level of play. Whether this is true or not, it's hard to say. I'm just struggling to find an alternative explantion. I concede that the lack of another option doesn't prove my point, but I just can't think of any other explanation. If the answer exists, it lies in comparisons of populations between T and Z. P and T are very similar in terms of drop-outs, with the exception of Platinum where significantly more T drop out. The difference is, T's also disappear from Master, while Protoss actually increased in population at master level. Zergs, on the other hand, no longer surge into master. Their domination surge loses steam in diamond and is strongest at Platinum level. Random is completely different, with similar decreases in population in higher leagues, but with increases in lower leagues (perhaps this is smurfs having fun?).
As for Plansix, he is clearly just here to derail the thread. There are very few more baseless arguments to make than to say that gold league players don't know builds. And once we demonstrate why that claim is wrong, he'll ignore it and start some other random derailing attempt.
You got that right. He is not really interested in discussing the point. There is no other rational explanation, so he just keep being tangent on his arguments.
There's another thing to take into consideration. The number of terrans was already smaller to begin with in 1.2 (in the plat, dia, master leagues) while the number of protoss was the biggest. So even though Terran lost 3,1% in the diamond (28 to 24,9) it corresponds to a loss of 11% of players, while Protoss was down from 33.6 to 31.4 (2,2%) which corresponds to a loss of 6,5% of players. Numbers can be a little deceiving if you don't understand what they mean.
The other argument that eventually rises: "People got bored of Terran and switched". You would think that people would happen to get bored of all races, not just Terran. If this happened at the same percentage rate, given some time, the number of players from every race would equalize. Just an example: suppose you have 100 players of race A and 50 of race B and that after each month 10% of the players of each race switched. After one month, you would have 95 players of race A and 55 of race B. It's not hard to see where it would end. So what actually happened? In 1.2 terran had the smallest number of players (in plat, dia, master). You would expect that the number of terrans would increase and not decrease from the natural switching. And what really happened? Guess what, the number of terrans decreased.
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On March 28 2012 07:54 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 07:07 slane04 wrote:On March 28 2012 06:36 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU. I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason. My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable. I agree about casual vs non-casual play. This is why I specifically targetting my question ot NA/EU platinum and diamond leagues, where your argument of casual play does not apply. At this level, almost everyone has a set of builds and is familiar with the metagame. Why is a uniquely Terran issue to have such a large population drop at the gold/platinum juncture? Any of your arguments should apply to all races, unless you concede that all races play differently at each league. If so, then it is completely reasonabe to argue that Terrans have a tough time at this level of play. Whether this is true or not, it's hard to say. I'm just struggling to find an alternative explantion. I concede that the lack of another option doesn't prove my point, but I just can't think of any other explanation. If the answer exists, it lies in comparisons of populations between T and Z. P and T are very similar in terms of drop-outs, with the exception of Platinum where significantly more T drop out. The difference is, T's also disappear from Master, while Protoss actually increased in population at master level. Zergs, on the other hand, no longer surge into master. Their domination surge loses steam in diamond and is strongest at Platinum level. Random is completely different, with similar decreases in population in higher leagues, but with increases in lower leagues (perhaps this is smurfs having fun?). As for Plansix, he is clearly just here to derail the thread. There are very few more baseless arguments to make than to say that gold league players don't know builds. And once we demonstrate why that claim is wrong, he'll ignore it and start some other random derailing attempt.
Your right, it is my master plan. I was warned for my dancing bears comments about 70 pages ago, but those were also part of the plan. I seek to derail this thread so terrans must suffer silently and no one may know their true suffering......
Ok, now that I'm done responding to that level of sillyness.
On March 28 2012 07:07 slane04 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 06:36 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU. I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason. My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable. I agree about casual vs non-casual play. This is why I specifically targetting my question ot NA/EU platinum and diamond leagues, where your argument of casual play does not apply. At this level, almost everyone has a set of builds and is familiar with the metagame. Why is a uniquely Terran issue to have such a large population drop at the gold/platinum juncture? Any of your arguments should apply to all races, unless you concede that all races play differently at each league. If so, then it is completely reasonabe to argue that Terrans have a tough time at this level of play. Whether this is true or not, it's hard to say. I'm just struggling to find an alternative explantion. I concede that the lack of another option doesn't prove my point, but I just can't think of any other explanation.
This is one of my main issues for a while. The argument that "this thing is happening, explain why? You can't explain why? Then I must be right!" sort of falls flat with me. I have never argued that terrans aren't having a hard time. Though I did say that protoss did spend a few months getting steamrolled by zerg and I also agreed that the ghost nerfs might have been much. But the idea that one race is quitting SC2 because of a gameplay issue seems crazy to me. If that were true, protoss and zerg would have left on mass at their own points of struggle. But that did not happen, or no one made a thread about it.
Also, we never account for promotions and demotions. That is another reason why people leave leagues. How does that factor in? Would it change anything? I don't think its a huge factor, but it is in the long list of things we cannot account for.
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On March 28 2012 08:34 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 07:54 Ghanburighan wrote:On March 28 2012 07:07 slane04 wrote:On March 28 2012 06:36 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU. I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason. My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable. I agree about casual vs non-casual play. This is why I specifically targetting my question ot NA/EU platinum and diamond leagues, where your argument of casual play does not apply. At this level, almost everyone has a set of builds and is familiar with the metagame. Why is a uniquely Terran issue to have such a large population drop at the gold/platinum juncture? Any of your arguments should apply to all races, unless you concede that all races play differently at each league. If so, then it is completely reasonabe to argue that Terrans have a tough time at this level of play. Whether this is true or not, it's hard to say. I'm just struggling to find an alternative explantion. I concede that the lack of another option doesn't prove my point, but I just can't think of any other explanation. If the answer exists, it lies in comparisons of populations between T and Z. P and T are very similar in terms of drop-outs, with the exception of Platinum where significantly more T drop out. The difference is, T's also disappear from Master, while Protoss actually increased in population at master level. Zergs, on the other hand, no longer surge into master. Their domination surge loses steam in diamond and is strongest at Platinum level. Random is completely different, with similar decreases in population in higher leagues, but with increases in lower leagues (perhaps this is smurfs having fun?). As for Plansix, he is clearly just here to derail the thread. There are very few more baseless arguments to make than to say that gold league players don't know builds. And once we demonstrate why that claim is wrong, he'll ignore it and start some other random derailing attempt. Your right, it is my master plan. I was warned for my dancing bears comments about 70 pages ago, but those were also part of the plan. I seek to derail this thread so terrans must suffer silently and no one may know their true suffering...... Ok, now that I'm done responding to that level of sillyness. Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 07:07 slane04 wrote:On March 28 2012 06:36 Plansix wrote:On March 28 2012 05:31 slane04 wrote:
@Plansix
You seem to have completely disregarded the stats I presented, where, for examples, Terrans in the Platinum league in NA and EU have seen a ~20% decrease in population from patch 1.2 to 1.4.2. This is significant.
Yes I agree it's difficult to know exactly why each player quits or switches races. However, the vast majority of these factors will average out with a large enough population. Bored with one race? Switch to another. By way of contrast, there are a limited number of factors that will lead to a gross decrease in race population in any given league.
These include:
actual/perceived balance problems
actual/perceived skill disparity between races
nerf vs buff ratio
metagame stagnation leading to stale and one-sided match-up
professional programmers' result and tournament wins
However, once again, these factors should average out for most leagues within any given region. Why are SPECIFIC leagues (platinum/diamond) struggling in NA/EU? We have proposed that there is a skill disparity at this level of play. This is very difficult to proove. But I want you to propose an alternative factor that would cause such a large race population collapse in the Platinum league for Terrans on NA/EU. I did propose some reasons why Platinum terrans leave previously, mostly that I felt that platinum was the end of the casual play for terran, that to advance beyond that point requires them to do some heavy duty learning on TL or another site. Most casual players are not willing to do that. Really most people who play SC2 are unwilling to do that. When we delve into silver, gold and platinum leages, we are dealing with players who may have no idea that professional SC2 is a thing or what a build is. They are not commited to SC2 or the community like any of us. Imbalance maybe a reason, but I am not sure it is a major one for people of that skill level(after all, I know a gold player who thinks hydras are total overpowered). The disparity of play may be one of the reasons, but I do not agree that it is the main reason. My girlfriend, who is in silver, tried terran and switched to zerg. Why? Banelings and roaches are more adorable. I agree about casual vs non-casual play. This is why I specifically targetting my question ot NA/EU platinum and diamond leagues, where your argument of casual play does not apply. At this level, almost everyone has a set of builds and is familiar with the metagame. Why is a uniquely Terran issue to have such a large population drop at the gold/platinum juncture? Any of your arguments should apply to all races, unless you concede that all races play differently at each league. If so, then it is completely reasonabe to argue that Terrans have a tough time at this level of play. Whether this is true or not, it's hard to say. I'm just struggling to find an alternative explantion. I concede that the lack of another option doesn't prove my point, but I just can't think of any other explanation. This is one of my main issues for a while. The argument that "this thing is happening, explain why? You can't explain why? Then I must be right!" sort of falls flat with me. I have never argued that terrans aren't having a hard time. Though I did say that protoss did spend a few months getting steamrolled by zerg and I also agreed that the ghost nerfs might have been much. But the idea that one race is quitting SC2 because of a gameplay issue seems crazy to me. If that were true, protoss and zerg would have left on mass at their own points of struggle. But that did not happen, or no one made a thread about it.Also, we never account for promotions and demotions. That is another reason why people leave leagues. How does that factor in? Would it change anything? I don't think its a huge factor, but it is in the long list of things we cannot account for.
The thing is: Protoss was struggling at GSL level, which has nothing to do with the level we are talking about here. If I remember correctly, Protoss struggled in PvT in two periods in ladder: during the beta until stim nerf (1 base plays) and in the 1-1-1 era. And in the 1-1-1 I don't think protoss had to face 1-1-1 every time (it gets boring to play 1-1-1 as Terran). You could be talking only about PvZ, that I wouldn't know.
Well, if you look at the numbers I posted you'll notice that Z has experienced a really big increase in the number of players from 1.2 to now. Buffs, timings being figured out, etc. have a lot to do with it.
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Something that is interesting to me is that there is a huge increase in zerg players although terrans have said TvP is the hardest match up. I think that terrans switch to zerg a lot of the time because they realize they can have good macro for their level, yet still lose because they can't micro well enough to survive in fights. With zerg, microing is fairly simple, so people with good macro can just steamroll the other players at this level. that's my theory at least.
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Well, I'm playing Terran this season. It did not start off that well - I lost like 15 TvPs in a row and got demoted to gold.
There is something really disheartening about seeing this nice MMM ball getting torn to shreds by a couple of storms. And it happened to me again, again and again. Oh well.
I switched things up. I dumped the stim timing attack completly, it just no longer feels viable. I kinda learned the 1-1-1 build and 2-rax-pressure-expand. If things go well and the toss goes robo tech then the game feels even. If he gets storm then it is same old story... 3x forcefield, 3x storm and whatever is left of a 100+ supply army will get killed by chargelots.
But at least I can do the 1-1-1 next "vs P" game to grab myself a win and ease the frustration a bit.
Switching things up apparently worked, I'm back in plat now and I even managed to get the top-8 today. Feels good 
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well, if ur going MMM why not add 1-2 ghosts for EMP? thats how i beat the most protoss back in season 1
or is it not good anymore?
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Sorry if this has already been said, but the increase in masters protoss is obviously due to people getting promoted after all the buffs. That should also mean that some terran and zergs were demoted.
In fact: How likely is a person to quit after getting demoted? Since terran has received the most nerfs since patch 1.3 it would make sense that more terran players have been demoted. The greater reduction in terran numbers could simple be due to the increased number of terran demotions.
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I do add ghosts but I find it really difficult to hit anything valuable with the EMP. I guess that's what I get for having super-low APM.
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On March 28 2012 09:23 boppel wrote:
well, if ur going MMM why not add 1-2 ghosts for EMP? thats how i beat the most protoss back in season 1
or is it not good anymore?
3 or 4 gateway units / sentries
1 or 2 high templar
1 immortal
Choose one, you aint emp'ing much else given the pitiful radius.
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On March 28 2012 09:36 malaan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 09:23 boppel wrote:
well, if ur going MMM why not add 1-2 ghosts for EMP? thats how i beat the most protoss back in season 1
or is it not good anymore? 3 or 4 gateway units / sentries 1 or 2 high templar 1 immortal Choose one, you aint emp'ing much else given the pitiful radius.
Storm and EMP got same radius... 
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EPT
