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On February 27 2012 16:08 USvBleakill wrote:
Thanks for these data ! I asked myself since a long time why Blizzard do not make their data official in the same way. The 50% Winrate = Balance thing is so stupid and tvp shows it that Terran needs some changes in the T3/lategame macro mechanics.
What is the definition of balance? Just 50/50 in every matchup or that every race can win the game on every minute mark, if the player is better. You can't have 50/50 every minute. Just becauce roach ling-allin hits at x-minute and 6 gate at y-minute, it doesn't mean it's imbalanced. And sometimes you can't just go and win.
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On February 26 2012 17:43 tdt wrote:
I can see the problem Blizzard has in balancing with these graphs. Make terrran weaker at start for zerg's benefit and protoss will just roll terran early. But you can't make protoss weaker because they are already a little weaker than zerg early.
Ghost Snipe nerf and EMP nerf was a total fail by this graph. Terran is already weak late, can't tech switch like other race, make them weaker?
Looks like it.
What Blizz should have done, was to nerf the MMM combo. Probably less DPS and movement bonus from stim, and less healing per second from the medivacs. EMP and Snipe look like could have stayed the way they were before the nerfs.
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On February 26 2012 23:31 thezanursic wrote:
Is this enough evidence for terran to get a strong lategame buff and get the snipe reverted and get an early game nerf?
I would say yes.
But I dont think Blizz will ever go for it.
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So interesting! I like the ZvP one cause it seems like you could explain it with:
Early game is the mass roach / roach ling / ling bling all ins. The the next spike is toss winning with their tech timings and if it fails zerg wins abit later. Then it evens out. Then toss wins again probably with some archon toilet and then extreme late game zerg wins with a billion infestor / brood / spines 
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Here is a crazy idea: Remove energy from Thors and Battlecruisers.
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On February 27 2012 20:11 Sated wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 20:05 PureBalls wrote:On February 26 2012 23:31 thezanursic wrote:
Is this enough evidence for terran to get a strong lategame buff and get the snipe reverted and get an early game nerf? I would say yes. But I dont think Blizz will ever go for it. And what would you suggest as a Zerg early-game buff to balance this out?
Why would Zerg need an early-game buff, if terran was to get nerfed early-game, and buffed late game? O_o
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Those are some beautiful graphs. I love the matchup winrates by game length, especially the way the ZvT and PvT graphs end up at 50%. Definitely not what I would have expected.
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the "overall" dotted lines are a bit confusing to me, for the following reasons:
in PvZ its a red line that is below the 50% mark, so I assume that means zerg has a lower than 50% overall
in ZvT its a... purple line? so the color of the line is the mix between the racial colors and PvZ its red because red and green are opposites and thus wont mix, this will henceforth be my assumption. oh, and the purple line is below the 50% line.
in TvP its a teal line (makes sense with our assumption) and unlike the previous 2 its above the 50% line, wait, so that means it must be possible to differentiate whos overall winrate we are seeing, the most obvious such method would be we see the race mentioned first aka P in PvZ, Z in ZvT and T in TvP.
but then why would the PvZ line be red? it would make a lot more sense for it to be green if it indicates... whatever, this doesn't seem to make very perfect sense anyway, so lets just ignore the color of the line and assume that the line indicates the winrate of the first mentioned race, that would mean:
P<Z
Z<T
T>P
or is this wrong?
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I'm a bit confused with the TvP graph. What kind of aggressive openings do P have, that hit around 5min? I'm not aware of any.
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Proxy 2 gates. Even 4gate hits 5:30.
But remember there are very few games with this length, so it's nor conclusive.
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On February 27 2012 20:45 PureBalls wrote:
I'm a bit confused with the TvP graph. What kind of aggressive openings do P have, that hit around 5min? I'm not aware of any.
I would have to say cannons. Can out right end the game if not put the T so far in a hole they cant get out. That or proxy gates are the only thing i can think of that is viable at the 5 min mark in PvT.
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On February 27 2012 20:38 Roblin wrote:
the "overall" dotted lines are a bit confusing to me, for the following reasons:
in PvZ its a red line that is below the 50% mark, so I assume that means zerg has a lower than 50% overall
in ZvT its a... purple line? so the color of the line is the mix between the racial colors and PvZ its red because red and green are opposites and thus wont mix, this will henceforth be my assumption. oh, and the purple line is below the 50% line.
in TvP its a teal line (makes sense with our assumption) and unlike the previous 2 its above the 50% line, wait, so that means it must be possible to differentiate whos overall winrate we are seeing, the most obvious such method would be we see the race mentioned first aka P in PvZ, Z in ZvT and T in TvP.
but then why would the PvZ line be red? it would make a lot more sense for it to be green if it indicates... whatever, this doesn't seem to make very perfect sense anyway, so lets just ignore the color of the line and assume that the line indicates the winrate of the first mentioned race, that would mean:
P<Z
Z<T
T>P
or is this wrong?
I have interpreted it in the same way, though I'm also not sure, but imo you nailed it 
also I think it is the same trend for overall winrate in the "monthly international stats" (Z>P, T>Z, T>P)
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On February 27 2012 20:53 Quintum_ wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 20:45 PureBalls wrote:
I'm a bit confused with the TvP graph. What kind of aggressive openings do P have, that hit around 5min? I'm not aware of any. I would have to say cannons. Can out right end the game if not put the T so far in a hole they cant get out. That or proxy gates are the only thing i can think of that is viable at the 5 min mark in PvT.
To be honest, I didnt think of those two, because I assumed, that they are sooooo bad against terran. (all ranged units + bunkers)
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On February 27 2012 20:58 PureBalls wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 20:53 Quintum_ wrote:On February 27 2012 20:45 PureBalls wrote:
I'm a bit confused with the TvP graph. What kind of aggressive openings do P have, that hit around 5min? I'm not aware of any. I would have to say cannons. Can out right end the game if not put the T so far in a hole they cant get out. That or proxy gates are the only thing i can think of that is viable at the 5 min mark in PvT. To be honest, I didnt think of those two, because I assumed, that they are sooooo bad against terran. (all ranged units + bunkers)
It can also be something like failed a Terran allin... But seriously, I wouldn't interprete too much into it... Neither Terran nor Protoss are hitting so hard so long before the 5min mark, that one player would have to give up before 5mins.
It's only 1-2 percent of the games, according to the cumulative graph, so we are probably really talking about very weird (metagamewise) strategies like SCV pulls against 1base, proxy canons, gates, raxes or simply people falling to zealot+stalker pokes (maybe someone trying to FFE against Terran)... Things like these happen, but with that small of a samplesize (only 1-2% of 3997games ~ 40-80games) and that close of a balance (56-44), there is not a lot you can really interprete balance or strategywise.
For all we know there could be 1 Protoss player who participates in Playhem regularly, that has found a perfect spot to canon Terrans on Tal'darim and has 56% winrate with it  (I'm exaggerating, but I guess you know what I mean...)
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Thanks for putting this together, it will bring some actual data (hopefully) into future discussions about racial balance/match-up, an area historically rife with conjecture and hyperbole. I also appreciate that you refrained from projecting too many unsubstantiated claims as comments regarding certain match-ups. Hopefully this info gives people a good starting point for follow-up studies.
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The TvP graph... that is so painful to see
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I think the most of the balance and win-rates at various times obviously have a lot to do with the metagame. Terran's winrate vs zerg early is the bunker rush, etc. I think those will be in constant flux and would change drastically at varying skill levels.
The thing I find most interesting is that between 20-30 minutes is basically when all matchups lose their timings and begin to pull back to 50% win rates. This suggests to me, with the possible exception of PvZ, that skill is what is most important beyond 30 minutes. Those numbers show me that the better multitasker/decision maker will win beyond 30 minutes, which is good.
I'd like to see PvZ's graph extended to include 30-35-40-45 minute games so we could see the continuationof the graph. Though I understand that the number of games in those windows is likely very small.
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On February 27 2012 16:08 USvBleakill wrote:
Thanks for these data ! I asked myself since a long time why Blizzard do not make their data official in the same way. The 50% Winrate = Balance thing is so stupid and tvp shows it that Terran needs some changes in the T3/lategame macro mechanics.
What is the definition of balance? Just 50/50 in every matchup or that every race can win the game on every minute mark, if the player is better.
Well this is a metaphysical question . I think blizzard has said in the past that they would like the game to be "balanced" in all phases of the game. For instance if the overall TvP win rate were 50%, but past 25 minutes the T win rate were 30% (I believe this was in fact the case before the removal of Khydarian Amulet), that's not good enough for them. They also don't seem to get too concerned until the win rate gets out of the 45-55% zone.
Also keep in mind that, based on publicly available data from Blizzard, Korean Diamond/Masters league shows very, very different results from everywhere else.
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On February 28 2012 00:17 Felnarion wrote:
I'd like to see PvZ's graph extended to include 30-35-40-45 minute games so we could see the continuationof the graph. Though I understand that the number of games in those windows is likely very small.
Too lazy to post a graph, but here are the raw numbers
30-35 minutes: P 85 : 67 Z
35-40 minutes: P 21 : 28 Z
40-45 minutes: P 14 : 9 Z
45-50 minutes: P 5 : 7 Z
50-55 minutes: P 0 : 2 Z
Keep in mind that the sample size even at 30 minutes is small enough that it's hard to draw super-fine conclusions.
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EPT
