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Win Rates & Game Length: Playhem NA Edition - Page 2

Forum Index > SC2 General
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tomatriedes
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
New Zealand5356 Posts
February 26 2012 14:12 GMT
#21
On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
I think the PvT graph is quite telling. Deathball = very strong apparently :D


It's also telling how very strong mid game MMM pushes are.
thezanursic
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
5504 Posts
February 26 2012 14:31 GMT
#22
Is this enough evidence for terran to get a strong lategame buff and get the snipe reverted and get an early game nerf?
http://i45.tinypic.com/9j2cdc.jpg Let it be so!
Aunvilgod
Profile Joined December 2011
2653 Posts
February 26 2012 14:32 GMT
#23
I think doing this for the korean server would be great for gaining information for balancing.
ilovegroov | Blizzards mapmaker(s?) suck ass | #1 Protoss hater
SeaSwift
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Scotland4486 Posts
February 26 2012 14:34 GMT
#24
Yeah, the NA playhem is definitely not a great set of games to do it from, considering the overall skill level is considerably lower than the KR server, or Korean tournament games.

Then again, I don't know how easy that data would be to get a hold of.
Gladiator6
Profile Joined June 2010
Sweden7024 Posts
February 26 2012 14:37 GMT
#25
On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
I think the PvT graph is quite telling. Deathball = very strong apparently :D


Terran and Zerg all-ins pretty strong from what we can see also, especially 5-15 mins. :D
Flying, sOs, free, Light, Soulkey & ZerO
XenoX101
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia729 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-26 14:38:24
February 26 2012 14:37 GMT
#26
On February 26 2012 23:31 thezanursic wrote:
Is this enough evidence for terran to get a strong lategame buff and get the snipe reverted and get an early game nerf?


Lol. This graph isnt implying that anything is overpowered, its only showing how winrates fluctuate based on game length, which they always will because it is impossible to balance a matchup at all moments in the game. The tools they have (adjusting unit statistics etc.) dont allow for such precision and it would make for an incredibly boring game if at no point was any race at a disadvantage or advantage.
Sadistx
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Zimbabwe5568 Posts
February 26 2012 14:40 GMT
#27
On February 26 2012 23:32 Aunvilgod wrote:
I think doing this for the korean server would be great for gaining information for balancing.


I agree completely, but unless Playhem starts doing KR dailies, we will not get enough replays out of korea, since pro-houses tend to not release them and ESV weekly doesnt release them either afaik.

Maybe playhem info should be limited to top 16 players in a daily, to weed out the lower tier players.
Geiko
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
France2036 Posts
February 26 2012 14:41 GMT
#28
On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
I think the PvT graph is quite telling. Deathball = very strong apparently :D


I think the PvT graph is quite telling. MM pushes and shift queued drop =very strong apparently :D
geiko.813 (EU)
SeaSwift
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Scotland4486 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-26 14:44:41
February 26 2012 14:43 GMT
#29
On February 26 2012 23:37 XenoX101 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 23:31 thezanursic wrote:
Is this enough evidence for terran to get a strong lategame buff and get the snipe reverted and get an early game nerf?


Lol. This graph isnt implying that anything is overpowered, its only showing how winrates fluctuate based on game length, which they always will because it is impossible to balance a matchup at all moments in the game. The tools they have (adjusting unit statistics etc.) dont allow for such precision and it would make for an incredibly boring game if at no point was any race at a disadvantage or advantage.


Ideally, it's better to have a game in which each matchup is pretty even on average with game length. Small fluctuations are fine, but what you see here are huge.

As for it being OK for the matchup having different swings for each race at different moments in the game, imagine this scenario, for example:

PvT, let's say, is impossible for Terrans after the 10 minute mark. Therefore, they always all-in before then, or they die. That all-in has an approximately 50% chance of working.

According to Blizzard, that is balanced and the matchup is excellent. But we both know that it must be completely broken.

So while it is fine for there to be minor fluctuations in winrate per game length, what we are seeing at the moment is a massive change in winrate over time, which is definitely not good, particularly in PvT.
Chaggi
Profile Joined August 2010
Korea (South)1936 Posts
February 26 2012 14:49 GMT
#30
I guess that confirms what I've always thought about Terran matchups, it's interesting to see that the longest games in TvP are relatively balanced. I'm curious to see what the really really really late replays in TvP were just so I can check them out.
Noocta
Profile Joined June 2010
France12578 Posts
February 26 2012 14:50 GMT
#31
On February 26 2012 23:49 Chaggi wrote:
I guess that confirms what I've always thought about Terran matchups, it's interesting to see that the longest games in TvP are relatively balanced. I'm curious to see what the really really really late replays in TvP were just so I can check them out.


It's these kind of game where the map is almost mined out, army supply get back to the 100 range, with low amount of tech units.
MMM get a lot more efficient in these scenarios.
" I'm not gonna fight you. I'm gonna kick your ass ! "
Andreas
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Norway214 Posts
February 26 2012 14:54 GMT
#32
Excellent work. I wish Blizzard would work with this kind of data rather than just looking at raw win-percentages. If this data is any indication, it's early-game terran that needs to be fixed, and the late-game nerfs to Snipe and EMP are mistakes.
Akta
Profile Joined February 2011
447 Posts
February 26 2012 14:58 GMT
#33
On February 26 2012 16:25 _scout wrote:
I'm really interested in what major things occur where the graph lines intersect. Specifically, in ZvT the ~18 minute mark looks like a significant change occurs. I'd have to watch some replays of it but maybe that is when zerg typically gets their brood lords out. Or perhaps the shift is reflective of the cumulative effect of 5-8 minutes of mutalisk harassment?

What about TvP, is that first intersection when terran has their MMM rocking and rolling? What is that second intersection? Does protoss now have templar AND colossi? I think this could be revealing of some very typical timings in the current metagame, and more importantly insight on how to deal with it as each race.
Looks like it's based on 5 minute intervals which means that information about what happens between the data points, like more exact timings is not in the graphs. So we can't know if 50% happens at 16 or 19 minutes and the lines might even intersect multiple times between 15 and 20 minutes.

Always fun seeing some data but would have been nice with shorter intervals.
anApple
Profile Joined November 2011
Singapore275 Posts
February 26 2012 15:06 GMT
#34
Rofl PvP
huehuehue
RandomAccount#106470
Profile Joined September 2010
Lithuania1506 Posts
February 26 2012 15:09 GMT
#35
--- Nuked ---
mostevil
Profile Joined February 2011
United Kingdom611 Posts
February 26 2012 15:09 GMT
#36
I worry about people trying to make balance assumptions on the basis of game end times and the like. For example in TvZ, a good opening attack and the zerg tends to die out right where as if the zerg gets a good first engagement the terran rarely dies but is so far behind for the midgame that it's a foregone conclusion barring any horrific mistakes. The curves can be misleading as it shows when the game physically ended, not when it was won and lost.
我的媽和她的瘋狂的外甥都
NonY
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
8751 Posts
February 26 2012 15:12 GMT
#37
On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D

I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. It's like in PvZ shakuras where protoss go for 2 base timing attack and when it fails, turtle up and go for late game. But zerg should usually win that late game. Important thing is that zerg can't just counterattack to immediately end the game at the point when they've gained a huge advantage.
"Fucking up is part of it. If you can't fail, you have to always win. And I don't think you can always win." Elliott Smith ---------- Yet no sudden rage darkened his face, and his eyes were calm as they studied her. Then he smiled. 'Witness.'
shizna
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom803 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-26 15:21:09
February 26 2012 15:17 GMT
#38
On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D

I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. It's like in PvZ shakuras where protoss go for 2 base timing attack and when it fails, turtle up and go for late game. But zerg should usually win that late game. Important thing is that zerg can't just counterattack to immediately end the game at the point when they've gained a huge advantage.



protoss do the same in early game versus terran with their 2base semi-all-in rush before stim/medivacs.

can a terran instantly close out a game after successfully defending a 2base blink rush or a warp prism rush? or a probe-cutting 6gate.... lmao not likely.

what's more.... when the protoss drags it to the late game, the terran can instantly lose all advantage and actually fall miles behind in a nano second just from taking a single storm.
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5226 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-26 15:20:32
February 26 2012 15:17 GMT
#39
On February 26 2012 16:05 Energizer wrote:
what I wasen't expecting was the pvz graph. Honestly expected protoss to be in a bigger lead by around the 25+ minute mark, yet stays relatively even up until the point where there is insignificant data to draw any conclusions.


Despite the complaints from Zerg players, PvZ has been a Zerg favored matchup for awhile according to the win rate charts (http://imgur.com/a/hQHYS), almost 60/40 now, with many months of 45/55. So with that win rate data in mind, you wouldn't expect to see Protoss dominating any period of the game significantly, since Zerg simply wins more.

Andreas
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Norway214 Posts
February 26 2012 15:17 GMT
#40
On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D

I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out.

That seems counter-intuitive to me - it always seems to me like if Protoss loses the mid-game battle (without too much of a margin), he can fall back on upgraded chargelots being very effective in small numbers and turtle on 3 bases (depending on the map, I suppose) until 3/3 before pushing out to take a 4th. In theory, forward pylons/warp prisms should allow Protoss more than any other race to capitalize on advantages in army size.
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