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On February 27 2012 00:17 Andreas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. That seems counter-intuitive to me - it always seems to me like if Protoss loses the mid-game battle (without too much of a margin), he can fall back on upgraded chargelots being very effective in small numbers and turtle on 3 bases (depending on the map, I suppose) until 3/3 before pushing out to take a 4th. In theory, forward pylons/warp prisms should allow Protoss more than any other race to capitalize on advantages in army size.
From a pure PvT standpoint - Terran can turtle up with a PF 3rd/lifting/ tons of bunkers after a failed 2base push rather easily. If P fails a 2base push, you usually lose most of your units (no stream of reinforcements due to warp-ins) and the army advantage goes to the T (when MMM is already pretty strong with low unit counts).
Most 2base timings dont include charge, regardless who pushes. 6gates, blink all ins, 2base colossi dont have charge and the myriad of 10minute T timings almost always hit before charge too. Tyler is completely right.
edit: PvZ it makes complete sense too obviously, due to natural simcity + defensive sentry strength (which in turn is avoided with medivacs in PvT if the P is at a disadvantage)
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very nice work, very interesting analysis of the metagame 
and apart of TvP that swings rather hard and the few Terran (vs Zerg) and Zerg (vs Protoss) cheeses the game seems very nicely balanced through an entire game. (even TvZ is never over 57-43 after the superearly cheeses... looks a lot like all those "can't win early/late" claims come down to little adjustments in playstyles, to gain even better winrates)
I'm especially surprised by the "after-lategame" balance... Once two races have had their "favored phases", the game evens out again, though of course the samplesize for those games is really low and the quality of the players probably not korean level...
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its quiet impressive that winrates at the end go closer together again. But those pvt stats soooo lol. Toss / Terran / Toss / even. But it shows perfectly how tvp works, terran stays on low tech with t2 support and toss tries to survive to get up their high tech army. So i would be suprised if it would look different. The issue is, there is no option for the toss to stay heavy on low tech (the upgrade buff helped here quiet alot though, but also helped the lategame), same goes for the terran in regards to high tech, tvt nerfed their mech play quiet heavily affecting pvt alot. Its difficult to go directly into mech (immortal range buff is eww against tanks early on), and transitioning when you also want air upgrades is quiet complicated especially against fast upgrading toss.
And if there are chokepoints, the toss can pretty easily turtle up to a a critical level against bio. I don't think Blizzard can do alot in this matchup. Buffing the early game for toss would mess up zvp, buffing the lategame of terran would ruin tvt. So players will have to find new ways to change the balance. Terran teching a bit more would change the stats, same like if toss would tech less fast.
But the i cannot win in the mid/late game of both races really do their job well. But have to say ghosts for mech and ravens for bio work beautiful for me. (my winrate on mech is pretty low though since i often don't reach the lategame) Experimenting around is so much fun. (the raven came from, i don't want to die with 2k gas banked up !)
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On February 27 2012 00:35 FeyFey wrote:
its quiet impressive that winrates at the end go closer together again. But those pvt stats soooo lol. Toss / Terran / Toss / even. But it shows perfectly how tvp works, terran stays on low tech with t2 support and toss tries to survive to get up their high tech army. So i would be suprised if it would look different. The issue is, there is no option for the toss to stay heavy on low tech (the upgrade buff helped here quiet alot though, but also helped the lategame), same goes for the terran in regards to high tech, tvt nerfed their mech play quiet heavily affecting pvt alot. Its difficult to go directly into mech (immortal range buff is eww against tanks early on), and transitioning when you also want air upgrades is quiet complicated especially against fast upgrading toss.
And if there are chokepoints, the toss can pretty easily turtle up to a a critical level against bio. I don't think Blizzard can do alot in this matchup. Buffing the early game for toss would mess up zvp, buffing the lategame of terran would ruin tvt. So players will have to find new ways to change the balance. Terran teching a bit more would change the stats, same like if toss would tech less fast.
But the i cannot win in the mid/late game of both races really do their job well. But have to say ghosts for mech and ravens for bio work beautiful for me. (my winrate on mech is pretty low though since i often don't reach the lategame) Experimenting around is so much fun. (the raven came from, i don't want to die with 2k gas banked up !)
What exactly do you mean by "tvt nerfed their mech play quiet heavily" and "buffing the lategame of terran would ruin tvt"? It's a mirror matchup and it's the only matchup that does NOT get ruined no matter how much you buff/nerf. Rock vs Rock balance doesn't change even if you buff rock to the point where it beats paper.
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On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. It's like in PvZ shakuras where protoss go for 2 base timing attack and when it fails, turtle up and go for late game. But zerg should usually win that late game. Important thing is that zerg can't just counterattack to immediately end the game at the point when they've gained a huge advantage.
Or, you could say, that terrans aims to end game in midgame not due to terran midgame been very strong, but because terran lategame been weak, so they try to maximize their chances by committing to midgame play. And subsequently if they wouldn't try to use it their win rate would drop below 50%. Statistic could point both ways: terran midgame been strong, or terran lategame been weak. I personally think it's a combination of both.
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On February 27 2012 00:25 Serelitz wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 00:17 Andreas wrote:On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. That seems counter-intuitive to me - it always seems to me like if Protoss loses the mid-game battle (without too much of a margin), he can fall back on upgraded chargelots being very effective in small numbers and turtle on 3 bases (depending on the map, I suppose) until 3/3 before pushing out to take a 4th. In theory, forward pylons/warp prisms should allow Protoss more than any other race to capitalize on advantages in army size. From a pure PvT standpoint - Terran can turtle up with a PF 3rd/lifting/ tons of bunkers after a failed 2base push rather easily. If P fails a 2base push, you usually lose most of your units (no stream of reinforcements due to warp-ins) and the army advantage goes to the T (when MMM is already pretty strong with low unit counts).
Sure you can... but that will almost certainly lose you the game as you enable protoss to get complete map control, multiple expansions and tech up to storm + multi robos for the ideal chargelot/colossi/HT/archon mix, along with enough gateways to instantly reinforce. There's also the risk that all the money spent on bunkers will let the protoss max out way before you and successfully attack into you, OR that he uses a round of warpin on zealots in your main to draw a substantial part of your army back, re-warpin as they die at your front and attack. Short version - it feels to me like protoss can catch up simply by surviving after a loss in the midgame (unless the lose is huge), while if terran fails a 2base midgame play there's a lot of things protoss can do to secure his lead.
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That TvZ graph will change in the coming couple of weeks..
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On February 26 2012 17:24 bustanut wrote:
could you put up % of pros that play each race and how that might affect the stats?
Indirectly ... I'm going to do another analysis where I look at the race composition & build orders of the players who make it to the Ro8 in more than a certain percentage of the tournaments they compete in. Korean Terrans did have an extremely good run, but I'm not sure it's enough to skew the results.
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TvP looks a lot like how thought about, expect I thought early game would have been about 50% but I guess it isn't. =/
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On February 27 2012 01:46 Andreas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 00:25 Serelitz wrote:On February 27 2012 00:17 Andreas wrote:On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. That seems counter-intuitive to me - it always seems to me like if Protoss loses the mid-game battle (without too much of a margin), he can fall back on upgraded chargelots being very effective in small numbers and turtle on 3 bases (depending on the map, I suppose) until 3/3 before pushing out to take a 4th. In theory, forward pylons/warp prisms should allow Protoss more than any other race to capitalize on advantages in army size. From a pure PvT standpoint - Terran can turtle up with a PF 3rd/lifting/ tons of bunkers after a failed 2base push rather easily. If P fails a 2base push, you usually lose most of your units (no stream of reinforcements due to warp-ins) and the army advantage goes to the T (when MMM is already pretty strong with low unit counts). Sure you can... but that will almost certainly lose you the game as you enable protoss to get complete map control, multiple expansions and tech up to storm + multi robos for the ideal chargelot/colossi/HT/archon mix, along with enough gateways to instantly reinforce. There's also the risk that all the money spent on bunkers will let the protoss max out way before you and successfully attack into you, OR that he uses a round of warpin on zealots in your main to draw a substantial part of your army back, re-warpin as they die at your front and attack. Short version - it feels to me like protoss can catch up simply by surviving after a loss in the midgame (unless the lose is huge), while if terran fails a 2base midgame play there's a lot of things protoss can do to secure his lead.
Yeah it gets you behind and you lose in the lategame, that's the point. Protoss CAN'T turtle like that so they die in the midgame instead, which skews the number a bit. A protoss that fails a 2base all-in doesn't turtle with bunkers / 3rd PF / giving away map control, he just dies to medivac drops+push through the natural.
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really interested in what major things occur where the graph lines intersect. Specifically, in ZvT the ~18 minute mark looks like a significant change occurs. I'd have to watch some replays of it but maybe that is when zerg typically gets their brood lords out. Or perhaps the shift is reflective of the cumulative effect of 5-8 minutes of mutalisk harassment?
Typically that's what the game looks like when zerg dealt decisive damage early on (either a ton of worker harass or smashed an unsieged army or something) so that terran had a nearly insurmountable disadvantage, but doesn't have to actually leave the game until broodlords or a hundred and ten banelings kick in his front door.
The first few minutes are probably proxy barracks and scv pulls. The 10-15 minute range seems fair; it only looks terran favoured because when terran gets an advantage he wins, and when zerg gets an advantage, he gets ahead. The only time a game would actually end in that timespan is when the zerg is dead. When zerg takes an advantage, he can't usually end the game right away (and puts himself at a serious risk of losing it if he tries), but he can be so far ahead that he goes to hive and terran cannot be ready. So the 15-25 minute time span consists of terran wins, zerg wins, and zerg clean-up.
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On February 27 2012 00:17 Andreas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. That seems counter-intuitive to me - it always seems to me like if Protoss loses the mid-game battle (without too much of a margin), he can fall back on upgraded chargelots being very effective in small numbers and turtle on 3 bases (depending on the map, I suppose) until 3/3 before pushing out to take a 4th. In theory, forward pylons/warp prisms should allow Protoss more than any other race to capitalize on advantages in army size.
Playing from both sides, I can say that if Protoss is ahead midgame, you can't just go kill Terran because pulling scvs and MMM are really strong if Protoss doesn't have AOE. The game drags on with Protoss taking his 3rd early and upgrades and pushes out with a deathball to win. If Terran is ahead, a smaller Protoss ball will never kill a bigger Terran ball because of medivacs, so you can just go kill him if you have a reasonable advantage. (in the midgame at least)
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Interesting is how PvP and ZvZ are clearly different from other march-ups.
The rest is as expected or too random to draw conclusions from.
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I want to see the TvZ graph after the snipe nerf. I think we can see 1 thing in the terran matchups: lategame terran is weak.
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On February 27 2012 01:54 ZeroTalent wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2012 17:24 bustanut wrote:
could you put up % of pros that play each race and how that might affect the stats? Indirectly ... I'm going to do another analysis where I look at the race composition & build orders of the players who make it to the Ro8 in more than a certain percentage of the tournaments they compete in. Korean Terrans did have an extremely good run, but I'm not sure it's enough to skew the results.
If that's the case consider making a graph without any actual pros so we can see how the game balance looks for the average joes.
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Great charts, definitely present some interesting info.
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On February 27 2012 03:17 zezamer wrote:
How old is the data.
The Playhem data starts in September 2011 and goes through last week. Since the ghost nerf just came out, the only balance change in this timeframe was to decrease the cost of protoss upgrades.
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On February 27 2012 00:17 shizna wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2012 00:12 Liquid`NonY wrote:On February 26 2012 16:12 synapse wrote:
Deathball = very strong apparently :D I think the opposite actually. Terran midgame is very strong so most terrans play for the midgame. It's often win or lose at that point, but if it's a loss for the terran, then the game drags on to late game before protoss can actually close it out. It's like in PvZ shakuras where protoss go for 2 base timing attack and when it fails, turtle up and go for late game. But zerg should usually win that late game. Important thing is that zerg can't just counterattack to immediately end the game at the point when they've gained a huge advantage. protoss do the same in early game versus terran with their 2base semi-all-in rush before stim/medivacs. can a terran instantly close out a game after successfully defending a 2base blink rush or a warp prism rush? or a probe-cutting 6gate.... lmao not likely. what's more.... when the protoss drags it to the late game, the terran can instantly lose all advantage and actually fall miles behind in a nano second just from taking a single storm.
Yes you can.... You are miles ahead if you live through a probe cutting 6 gate, you are just trying to QQ... Also, if that happens when you eat a storm the same happens when your stuff gets EMPed. So please stop complaining.
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Thanks for these data ! I asked myself since a long time why Blizzard do not make their data official in the same way. The 50% Winrate = Balance thing is so stupid and tvp shows it that Terran needs some changes in the T3/lategame macro mechanics.
What is the definition of balance? Just 50/50 in every matchup or that every race can win the game on every minute mark, if the player is better.
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EPT
