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On December 31 2011 06:19 Primadog wrote:Alexa is a very poor gauge of viewership trends. Here are some actual numbers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/cMm4t.jpg) Dreamhack Summer 2011 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40ix0.jpg) Dreamhack Winnter 2011
Dreamhack has more than just Starcraft
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On December 31 2011 08:24 adrenaLinG wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2011 06:19 Primadog wrote:Alexa is a very poor gauge of viewership trends. Here are some actual numbers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/cMm4t.jpg) Dreamhack Summer 2011 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40ix0.jpg) Dreamhack Winnter 2011 Dreamhack has more than just Starcraft
Ontop of those graphs being completely useless because it doesn't compare how to viewer trends have changed. That is a graph of like one day, what exactly is that good for?
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the people who actually have the numbers we need to see to make a judgement all work for the major lans, and they are the ones saying they are seeing huge growth. who are we to doubt them. youtube links, 1 day stream views and the popularity of the daily will never give a decent picture.
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I feel like this kind of debate often gets confused.
Players =\= viewers. Just because people aren't playing as many bnet ladder games doesn't mean that the esports scene is stagnating at all, and just because viewership is increasing, we can't conclude that there will always be a stable ladder player base.
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all this analysis shows is the popularity of team liquid. Even if you would include b.net and reddit and god knows what other sites it only says something about the popularity of SC related forums. If you really want to make a good estimation about the popularity and the trend, you should include all the sc related forums, all the viewers of all the streams, all the b.net users, and tickets sold to events. Im sorry to be this harsh but if you think that this research can conclude anything about the actual popularity of SC entirely then you didnt do your homework. It's always nice to see someone put effort into their post, but the conclusions you are basing on the available data are only misleading.
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On December 31 2011 08:26 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2011 08:24 adrenaLinG wrote:On December 31 2011 06:19 Primadog wrote:Alexa is a very poor gauge of viewership trends. Here are some actual numbers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/cMm4t.jpg) Dreamhack Summer 2011 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40ix0.jpg) Dreamhack Winnter 2011 Dreamhack has more than just Starcraft Ontop of those graphs being completely useless because it doesn't compare how to viewer trends have changed. That is a graph of like one day, what exactly is that good for? It shows that there were 5k more people who watched the sc2 winter dreamhack finals than the summer one.
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On December 31 2011 08:24 adrenaLinG wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2011 06:19 Primadog wrote:Alexa is a very poor gauge of viewership trends. Here are some actual numbers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/cMm4t.jpg) Dreamhack Summer 2011 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40ix0.jpg) Dreamhack Winnter 2011 Dreamhack has more than just Starcraft Those were SC2 numbers. Other games had a separate stream except the grand finals of Quake and SF which unfortunately didn't seem very popular.
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On December 31 2011 08:26 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2011 08:24 adrenaLinG wrote:On December 31 2011 06:19 Primadog wrote:Alexa is a very poor gauge of viewership trends. Here are some actual numbers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/cMm4t.jpg) Dreamhack Summer 2011 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40ix0.jpg) Dreamhack Winnter 2011 Dreamhack has more than just Starcraft Ontop of those graphs being completely useless because it doesn't compare how to viewer trends have changed. That is a graph of like one day, what exactly is that good for?
To demonstrate viewership growth. The above two graphs compare viewership numbers between Dreamhack Summer and Dreamhack Winter for StarCraft 2 English stream. Dreamhack Winter (Nov 27th) clocked over 90k peak viewership, compared to 60k peak of Dreamhack Summer (Jun 20th).* This invalidates your following argument.
If anyone has been here for a while, do you guys remember the HDH Invitational in BETA? It's finals peaked at nearly 30k views if my memory serves right, how about TSL3? Nony vs Strelok in ro32 having 60k+ viewers? These events were not the large scale events we have now, but they attracted a huge audience... Where did all these players go? Events like NASL being way below that, Dreamhack keeping on par with TSL3 numbers, and I'm going to take MLG numbers with a grain of salt because those figures are often exaggerated.
Alexa is fundamentally a flawed metric, dependent on people using the Alexa Toolbar to measure traffic. Even if it can be relied on, its numbers does not measure viewership or fanbase in any meaningful matters, and actually counters all other indicators.
* Note, Day9tv was a restream of the main Dreamhack Winter stream, the viewership numbers are added for peak concurrent number.
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At this point everyone should be aware how eSports work. From time to time, a new game brings a lot of interest to it and then it dies. It happened to WoW, CS, Quake, etc. SC2 had its moment, now it's going down, no doubt about it.
It might look cool to say that SC2 will grow immensely and become a real sport, but that is just a dream. Sometime soon a new game will take its place in the competitive scene.
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On December 31 2011 08:33 Wren wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2011 08:26 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 31 2011 08:24 adrenaLinG wrote:On December 31 2011 06:19 Primadog wrote:Alexa is a very poor gauge of viewership trends. Here are some actual numbers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/cMm4t.jpg) Dreamhack Summer 2011 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40ix0.jpg) Dreamhack Winnter 2011 Dreamhack has more than just Starcraft Ontop of those graphs being completely useless because it doesn't compare how to viewer trends have changed. That is a graph of like one day, what exactly is that good for? It shows that there were 5k more people who watched the sc2 winter dreamhack finals than the summer one.
Just remember that Winter had more hype to it. There are some tournaments that utterly failed. Compare IEM anything to IEM NY for example... way lower numbers. GSL numbers went down as well.
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On December 31 2011 08:37 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2011 08:33 Wren wrote:On December 31 2011 08:26 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 31 2011 08:24 adrenaLinG wrote:On December 31 2011 06:19 Primadog wrote:Alexa is a very poor gauge of viewership trends. Here are some actual numbers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/cMm4t.jpg) Dreamhack Summer 2011 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40ix0.jpg) Dreamhack Winnter 2011 Dreamhack has more than just Starcraft Ontop of those graphs being completely useless because it doesn't compare how to viewer trends have changed. That is a graph of like one day, what exactly is that good for? It shows that there were 5k more people who watched the sc2 winter dreamhack finals than the summer one. Just remember that Winter had more hype to it. There are some tournaments that utterly failed. Compare IEM anything to IEM NY for example... way lower numbers. GSL numbers went down as well.
Actually, IEM NY broke a Twitch.tv stream record (due to LoL): http://www.twitchstats.com/lab?type=streams&names=&start=1318531500000&end=1318891500000&cb=multi_obj_chart_cb
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Can we just say that the new battle.net is hurting esports?
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Alexa can't provide 100% accurate data because of the way they get their information. They rely on Alexa Toolbar users (anyone here? anyone?) and a variety of other web panels to generate what they think are the most popular websites on the internet.
The data is excellent for giving someone some information to chew on when they are wanting to purchase a website from you, but when it comes to predicting, tracking, analyzing, or anything else (especially with TeamLiquid.net) the only way to get accurate info is to dig into the tracking software actually on the site.
As far as search engine visits declining goes, when people find this site they usually don't need to go and start searching again, so they end up becoming repeat visitors (40% bounce rate). As this site gets increased age and authority, the search engine visits will never drop to 0, but may not peak again until another new game comes out and gets more people searching for more content.
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I think we will see more increase next year. It may start to level off, if HoTS doesn't come out, towards the end of the year.
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This is pretty interesting information. I personally pretty much quit around season 3 and just recently have started playing again. My friends list of 60+ only has 3-5 people that get on still. I think there are a lot of reasons for that. Some people play the Flavor of the Month/Year etc etc game. AKA they go to LOL or get lost in Sky Rim for awhile. For me in particular I got irritated with a lot of things in the game. I always expected them to patch certain things etc etc and the game failed to live up to my expectations and I finally just came to terms with it. As a die hard BW zerg player I was very bitter about SC2 for a long time. Oddly enough I have been coming back and started playing again I think it is based purely on the competition.
One interesting thing is even while I quit playing for almost 8 months I still watched a lot of the tourney streams. I think a big part of me is playing again in hopes of HOTS but honestly I am expecting to be let down really hard. That being said the expansion will bring a lot of people back but it will probably be similar to SC2 WOL with people falling out every season. That's to be expected with every game though.
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Most of the people I've met at my local barcraft have no idea what TL is or don't visit it at all, yet they still come to watch games 1-2 times a week. Most of them visit Reddit I believe, since the barcraft is announced there alot more than here on TL. Also, I think you can find alot of streams just on twitch.tv, you don't have to come to TL to see who is streaming. My point is that I think there are alot of starcraft fans/viewers who simply never visit TL.
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im freakinggggggg outtttttttttttt its doomsday! Sc2 on the decline?!?!?!?!!?!? i just stocked up on peanut butter since that doesnt go bad for a long time since clearly the world is going to end in 2012 ergo ending the life of Sc2. THE GRAPHS are predicting it!!!! All kidding aside its mostly just from shitty advertising by tournaments. They don''t even try to advertise or hand out flyers to the main stream. When was the last time someone handed u a flyer saying for ex) June 22nd TUNE IN TO MLG BOSTON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! O_o
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On December 31 2011 06:02 adrenaLinG wrote: Anyone that's been on BNet knows that more than half their friends list doesn't go on anymore since Season 3.
This. I've turned my friend list over multiple times, usually with each season start. All the "fad" players are dropping out.
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teamliquid != sc2. Moderation is sometimes way too ridig. This has lead to a decline of interesting/fun posts. I enjoy reading about a player having found a successful all-in (its interesting metagame wise) or some non-standard strategy (even if it fails i like to elaborate, discuss and understand why). However often some wannabee pros (most often idra'ized hardcore droners) enjoy to walkover read-worthy posts. What stays are real low-level evergreen discussions/questions about basic build orders. So I'd assume people walked away from TL, but not necessary SC2.
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On December 31 2011 09:08 Humanfails wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2011 06:02 adrenaLinG wrote: Anyone that's been on BNet knows that more than half their friends list doesn't go on anymore since Season 3. This. I've turned my friend list over multiple times, usually with each season start. All the "fad" players are dropping out.
Many of those still follow starcraft. I didn't play on ladder last season, but watched all major tournaments and player streams couple times a week.
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