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Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you.
http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/
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Northern Ireland27041 Posts
Tempests to me are annoying for hardcountering certain units. I am not exactly a Broodlord fan but wow they just melt if the Protoss gets wind of the transition and has a few tempests out
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On May 06 2014 21:23 Wombat_NI wrote:
Tempests to me are annoying for hardcountering certain units. I am not exactly a Broodlord fan but wow they just melt if the Protoss gets wind of the transition and has a few tempests out
I don't like hardcounters in general, there's way too many in this game.
Too many dull mechanics and super specific response requiring units.
Half the utilized Terran race has as the only function to 'counteract' the anti-bio units.
Buff Tanks :D
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On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/
I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur.
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On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur.
OK. Now I get it. He just needed a good translator like you.
By the way, is there a way to know how many mirror match-ups are played per month in Aligulac? I can find them in lists, but those are per 14 days.
As for non-mirror match-ups, Terran related match-up has been the least played one since freaking February 2012, which is even before the notorious queen patch. That is, TvZ + PvT < TvZ + ZvP and ZvP + PvT for the last 20 months. Same stats for mirror isn't available in Aligulac as far as I know, but it must be similar. Low number of Terran games is quite alarming for sure.
Edit: I meant February 2012, not September
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On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur.
The people that are defending P and Z in its current state are clearly the ones who want easy ladder wins or enjoy long, boring games. I'm sure someone will bust out a statistic or a reason to defend the current, ridiculous STOG, but when all you have to do is right click on a Nexus or create something like SH (with never ending, auto spawn supply) - strategy is taken out of the game. As I began to face GM I started to think "gee, why is it always TvP or TvZ". Then i looked at the NA GM Ladder LOL
http://imgur.com/lwE9g1A
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On May 07 2014 00:00 SirPinky wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. The people that are defending P and Z in its current state are clearly the ones who want easy ladder wins or enjoy long, boring games. I'm sure someone will bust out a statistic or a reason to defend the current, ridiculous STOG, but when all you have to do is right click on a Nexus or create something like SH (with never ending, auto spawn supply) - strategy is taken out of the game. As I began to face GM I started to think "gee, why is it always TvP or TvZ". Then i looked at the NA GM Ladder LOL http://imgur.com/lwE9g1A
At least Guitarcheese is representing terran hope!
Sort of...
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On May 07 2014 00:00 SirPinky wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. The people that are defending P and Z in its current state are clearly the ones who want easy ladder wins or enjoy long, boring games. I'm sure someone will bust out a statistic or a reason to defend the current, ridiculous STOG, but when all you have to do is right click on a Nexus or create something like SH (with never ending, auto spawn supply) - strategy is taken out of the game. As I began to face GM I started to think "gee, why is it always TvP or TvZ". Then i looked at the NA GM Ladder LOL http://imgur.com/lwE9g1A
Stop baiting.
Ridiculous phrasing like "enjoy boring games" and plainly wrong statements like "SH spawn supply" aside, there is hardly anyone around here that doesn't agree that Terran is having a hard time right now. That doesn't mean we need to shit upon Z and P or stay away from defending those races in specific arguments.
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On May 06 2014 23:25 Orek wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. OK. Now I get it. He just needed a good translator like you. By the way, is there a way to know how many mirror match-ups are played per month in Aligulac? I can find them in lists, but those are per 14 days. As for non-mirror match-ups, Terran related match-up has been the least played one since freaking February 2012, which is even before the notorious queen patch. That is, TvZ + PvT < TvZ + ZvP and ZvP + PvT for the last 20 months. Same stats for mirror isn't available in Aligulac as far as I know, but it must be similar. Low number of Terran games is quite alarming for sure. Edit: I meant February 2012, not September
Regardless though, there is a problem with the way he argues. He asks other people to do the math (without having done it himself), and for some reason he claims that the answer to (the math he hasn't done) is 33/67.
Without having done the math myself, I am quite convinced that it is nowhere that low. I think terran win/rates are more likely to be reduced by 5 percentage point or something like that, but too some extent it also depends on the assumptions you make before you adjust the win/rates.
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On May 06 2014 03:24 Faust852 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 02:53 ROOTFayth wrote:On May 05 2014 22:19 Micro_Jackson wrote:On May 05 2014 18:07 LSN wrote:On May 05 2014 12:57 Mutineer wrote:
This year terans did not win a single major tournaments, in korea and overseas. Last year, when terran was winning the majority of tournaments, this thread was not any different: This thread was inhabited with 80% terrans that were blaming good stats of terran race on the uber-abilities of innovation and flash. However, nowadays it is very clear that innovation was just one of the guys in history of sc2 that were able to abuse certain mechanics/playstyles to his favour during a period of time where it was hard to deal with them like there were several before him and flash can't live up to his prior broodwar times of success, which surely also is a matter of sc2 being not that appealing and inspiring to him as broodwar was (imo, due to the lower general skill cap and due to too fast macro of all races). Anyway, the terran bias in this thread is quite strong. I don't even know what is the point about 2 rax or 2 off-rax execution in here. It is basically a matter of scouting and reaction of the opponent and not only a matter of microabilities of the executioner. The game is balanced around marines can't be controlled 100% perfectly, otherwise they required nerfing anyway (as other units as well). Therefore it is not relevant if marines can or cannot be microed perfectly. Terran is a bit in a bad spot right now, I don't doubt, but the solution neither can be any 2 rax timings nor enabling bio in general to overpower their opponents with easy in many situations, as it was before e.g. queen patch or nexus overcharge. The solution can only be to enforce/enable the terran race to mix a bigger variety of units into their composition of wanted army. The SC2 state is alot better than it was 1 year ago, but still doesn't feel finnished. Emphasize of terran race is still too much on bio and the ways to deal with it for opponents. I think the thor has to go and be replaced with something more appropriate/dynamic. I think the reason for the Terran bias is that T is the "hardest" or better said "frustrating" race to play. Lets say you are Protoss and open Dt every game. Between Bronce and High Master you will win 3 or 4 out of 10 games just randomly by choosing this build. Terran in the current meta doesnt have this "random" wins and is lacking of consistent allins too. In my opinion the Terran bias is not about balance, it is more about the feeling that the opponent doesn´t "earned" the win by playing better. Even on pro level you see T dropping all over the place and P turtling on 2 base just waiting for T to make a mistake and stomp him with 1 push. Honestly i think Terran needs even a bigger rework then Protoss. Bio play is either too strong at the highest level or too "hard" for lowlvls, everything that synergies with bio is overpowered by default and every Mech buff will be hardcountert by ZvP balance, like history shows (roachbuff(s), Immortalbuff, Tempest). And removing every T upgrade from the game will not fix the problems. Ideas might be: - Move Marauder somehow to Mech. - Rework Reaper away from scout only to some sort of mapcontrol unit. - Rework Air, in times of speed oracle, speed mutas and super long range Tempest, the BC and Banshee look a bit outdated. just look at ruff, he's grandmaster and he's as dumb as a brick, terrans stuck in diamond whining that terran is much harder to play are just being delusional You are diamond too, and extremely biased too. And Ruff isn't stupid? wtf. Not because he doesn't have a standard way of play, that it makes him dumb.
my ladder ranking is irrelevent lol i played a few games for fun recently but I had not played at all since HOTS came out and barely the year prior to that, and yeah I dont know if u heard him "investigate" other people's smurf but if you did you should have figured out by now the guy has problems
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On May 07 2014 01:16 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2014 00:00 SirPinky wrote:On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. The people that are defending P and Z in its current state are clearly the ones who want easy ladder wins or enjoy long, boring games. I'm sure someone will bust out a statistic or a reason to defend the current, ridiculous STOG, but when all you have to do is right click on a Nexus or create something like SH (with never ending, auto spawn supply) - strategy is taken out of the game. As I began to face GM I started to think "gee, why is it always TvP or TvZ". Then i looked at the NA GM Ladder LOL http://imgur.com/lwE9g1A Stop baiting. Ridiculous phrasing like "enjoy boring games" and plainly wrong statements like "SH spawn supply" aside, there is hardly anyone around here that doesn't agree that Terran is having a hard time right now. That doesn't mean we need to shit upon Z and P or stay away from defending those races in specific arguments.
Maybe you didn't see the Stephano and Petraeus game this weekend. A two hour long game of Swarm Host vs Swarm Host is not boring to you? And, my statement is not wrong (unless you misred it)...Swarm Host pump out endless "free" supply of units to cause these stalemates. And not including P and Z in my criticism is similar to ignoring the pink elephant in the room: Terran is in this place B/C of these two races. Terran did not change in HOTS - every Terran is utilizing the same units in WoL (hellbat nerf; mine nerf). Now you see the same bio/marine versus Protoss and Terran's are opting for Thors instead of the crappy mines versus Zerg. So what has changed for Terran? Nothing. They didn't receive any new T3 units. So by simple logic, if Terran hasn't changed, then it is only P and Z which has (Tempest, MSC, Oracle, Viper, Swarm Host, Muta regeneration). And you really expect Terran to keep up?
If you think right clicking on a Nexus for 60 seconds of "free defense" or planting a unit in front of someones base to spawn a "never ending" flood of units is strategy based then our definition of e-sports entertainment has really degraded
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On May 07 2014 00:00 SirPinky wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. The people that are defending P and Z in its current state are clearly the ones who want easy ladder wins or enjoy long, boring games. I'm sure someone will bust out a statistic or a reason to defend the current, ridiculous STOG, but when all you have to do is right click on a Nexus or create something like SH (with never ending, auto spawn supply) - strategy is taken out of the game. As I began to face GM I started to think "gee, why is it always TvP or TvZ". Then i looked at the NA GM Ladder LOL http://imgur.com/lwE9g1A
If you find a terran, hug them. Donate to them... and last but not least capture those motherfuckers and put them in a cage. DO IT FOR MOTHER NATURE THEY WONT SURVIVE THE WINTER U SICK SONS OF BITCHES.
I HAVE SELECT TRAPPED IN MY LAUNDRY ROOM.
Theyre like manatees, lol. No seriously though, who are the ten terran players that are fucking the winrates up? THINK OF THE REST OF THE TERRANS WHO ARENT EVEN ON THE LADDER ANYMORE THE AGONY. But seriously though, I hope they fix the balance issues because believe it or not foreign pro terrans are actually trying to make money from this game and Ill be a sad panda if gm continues to look like that the rest of the year.
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On May 07 2014 03:40 LibertyRises wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2014 00:00 SirPinky wrote:On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. The people that are defending P and Z in its current state are clearly the ones who want easy ladder wins or enjoy long, boring games. I'm sure someone will bust out a statistic or a reason to defend the current, ridiculous STOG, but when all you have to do is right click on a Nexus or create something like SH (with never ending, auto spawn supply) - strategy is taken out of the game. As I began to face GM I started to think "gee, why is it always TvP or TvZ". Then i looked at the NA GM Ladder LOL http://imgur.com/lwE9g1A If you find a terran, hug them. Donate to them... and last but not least capture those motherfuckers and put them in a cage. DO IT FOR MOTHER NATURE THEY WONT SURVIVE THE WINTER U SICK SONS OF BITCHES. I HAVE SELECT TRAPPED IN MY LAUNDRY ROOM. Theyre like manatees, lol. No seriously though, who are the ten terran players that are fucking the winrates up? THINK OF THE REST OF THE TERRANS WHO ARENT EVEN ON THE LADDER ANYMORE THE AGONY. But seriously though, I hope they fix the balance issues because believe it or not foreign pro terrans are actually trying to make money from this game and Ill be a sad panda if gm continues to look like that the rest of the year.
You'll get me fired lauighing at work like this.
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On May 07 2014 01:16 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 23:25 Orek wrote:On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. OK. Now I get it. He just needed a good translator like you. By the way, is there a way to know how many mirror match-ups are played per month in Aligulac? I can find them in lists, but those are per 14 days. As for non-mirror match-ups, Terran related match-up has been the least played one since freaking February 2012, which is even before the notorious queen patch. That is, TvZ + PvT < TvZ + ZvP and ZvP + PvT for the last 20 months. Same stats for mirror isn't available in Aligulac as far as I know, but it must be similar. Low number of Terran games is quite alarming for sure. Edit: I meant February 2012, not September Regardless though, there is a problem with the way he argues. He asks other people to do the math (without having done it himself), and for some reason he claims that the answer to (the math he hasn't done) is 33/67. Without having done the math myself, I am quite convinced that it is nowhere that low. I think terran win/rates are more likely to be reduced by 5 percentage point or something like that, but too some extent it also depends on the assumptions you make before you adjust the win/rates.
as stated before, the biggest lie of mr kim and all aligulac statistics is the simple fact that ladder and tournament systems will always balance out at a near 50-50 win rate. it is supposed to work that way. that does not mean that there is no imbalance.
the 60-70 terrans that are not GM anymore still have a 50-50 win rate, but not in the highest league, now they compete in masters and code A/B.
if you would let all previous GM's play each other in a 5000 player pool there surely would be a 60-40 win ratio across the board for pvt and zvt.
it's not that suddenly all protoss and zergs have figured out the game so much better than their terran pendants, neither was it the other way round when hellbats were OP or throughout 2011 when terrans dominated.
one word on the topic itsself.
terran is doing poorly because it's way to easy to defend vs early aggression (with MSC, queens, etc).
that alone would maybe not be biggest deal but paired with the fact that you are vulnerable to a plethora of timings and all ins yourself makes the whole metagame not only seem unbalanced but frustrating aswell. and with frustration comes bad play. and i can assure you that you need to play absolutely flawless to hold all ins as a terran. zerg is a little bit more forgiving and protoss requires the least of "on the edge" play. (note that it's not easy for any race, but if you had to rank it, i'd do it in that order)
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Well, as I suggested in previous post, I think viper abducting zerg static defense and uprooting them would go a long way towards fixing long swarm host games, because I think that that strategy is naturally dying out to metagame in the other matchups. I'm sick of people complaining about free units for zerg though, cause zerg units are otherwise totally cost inefficient. You can't beat a protoss ground army with just roach hydra and come out on top of the cost efficiency. Something like throwing locusts at a row of siege tanks or colossi means they don't deal any damage, which means that them being free doesn't matter unless they can kill something. I feel swarm hosts are problematic cause they need to be massed like hell to be any good, and so that naturally encourages a late game usage of them.
I would recommend that maybe swarm hosts be potentially altered for LOTV or something where locust spawn would be energy based ability with autocast, and that constantly streaming locusts would cost a tad more than the natural regeneration of energy. This would force you to move around with your swarm hosts, then you could buff locusts a tad and make SH cost 1 more supply, which would dis-encourage massing because they would be less powerful on max supply, and make them more viable as a mid game tech. Also, the cost of locust spawn and the SH energy should be relatively low so unburrowing them means the energy recoups quickly and that way feedback wont roflstomp SH's.
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On May 08 2014 09:48 Kitaen wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2014 01:16 Hider wrote:On May 06 2014 23:25 Orek wrote:On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. OK. Now I get it. He just needed a good translator like you. By the way, is there a way to know how many mirror match-ups are played per month in Aligulac? I can find them in lists, but those are per 14 days. As for non-mirror match-ups, Terran related match-up has been the least played one since freaking February 2012, which is even before the notorious queen patch. That is, TvZ + PvT < TvZ + ZvP and ZvP + PvT for the last 20 months. Same stats for mirror isn't available in Aligulac as far as I know, but it must be similar. Low number of Terran games is quite alarming for sure. Edit: I meant February 2012, not September Regardless though, there is a problem with the way he argues. He asks other people to do the math (without having done it himself), and for some reason he claims that the answer to (the math he hasn't done) is 33/67. Without having done the math myself, I am quite convinced that it is nowhere that low. I think terran win/rates are more likely to be reduced by 5 percentage point or something like that, but too some extent it also depends on the assumptions you make before you adjust the win/rates. as stated before, the biggest lie of mr kim and all aligulac statistics is the simple fact that ladder and tournament systems will always balance out at a near 50-50 win rate. it is supposed to work that way. that does not mean that there is no imbalance. the 60-70 terrans that are not GM anymore still have a 50-50 win rate, but not in the highest league, now they compete in masters and code A/B. if you would let all previous GM's play each other in a 5000 player pool there surely would be a 60-40 win ratio across the board for pvt and zvt. it's not that suddenly all protoss and zergs have figured out the game so much better than their terran pendants, neither was it the other way round when hellbats were OP or throughout 2011 when terrans dominated.
yes... in the longrun... obviously we don't have near 50-50winrates currently everywhere...
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On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur.
So by that logic, TvZ should actually be worse than 44% and needs a major fix immediately.
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On May 11 2014 05:46 Cheren wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. So by that logic, TvZ should actually be worse than 44% and needs a major fix immediately.
Yeah.
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On May 08 2014 09:48 Kitaen wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2014 01:16 Hider wrote:On May 06 2014 23:25 Orek wrote:On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. OK. Now I get it. He just needed a good translator like you. By the way, is there a way to know how many mirror match-ups are played per month in Aligulac? I can find them in lists, but those are per 14 days. As for non-mirror match-ups, Terran related match-up has been the least played one since freaking February 2012, which is even before the notorious queen patch. That is, TvZ + PvT < TvZ + ZvP and ZvP + PvT for the last 20 months. Same stats for mirror isn't available in Aligulac as far as I know, but it must be similar. Low number of Terran games is quite alarming for sure. Edit: I meant February 2012, not September Regardless though, there is a problem with the way he argues. He asks other people to do the math (without having done it himself), and for some reason he claims that the answer to (the math he hasn't done) is 33/67. Without having done the math myself, I am quite convinced that it is nowhere that low. I think terran win/rates are more likely to be reduced by 5 percentage point or something like that, but too some extent it also depends on the assumptions you make before you adjust the win/rates. as stated before, the biggest lie of mr kim and all aligulac statistics is the simple fact that ladder and tournament systems will always balance out at a near 50-50 win rate. it is supposed to work that way. that does not mean that there is no imbalance. the 60-70 terrans that are not GM anymore still have a 50-50 win rate, but not in the highest league, now they compete in masters and code A/B. if you would let all previous GM's play each other in a 5000 player pool there surely would be a 60-40 win ratio across the board for pvt and zvt. it's not that suddenly all protoss and zergs have figured out the game so much better than their terran pendants, neither was it the other way round when hellbats were OP or throughout 2011 when terrans dominated. one word on the topic itsself. terran is doing poorly because it's way to easy to defend vs early aggression (with MSC, queens, etc). that alone would maybe not be biggest deal but paired with the fact that you are vulnerable to a plethora of timings and all ins yourself makes the whole metagame not only seem unbalanced but frustrating aswell. and with frustration comes bad play. and i can assure you that you need to play absolutely flawless to hold all ins as a terran. zerg is a little bit more forgiving and protoss requires the least of "on the edge" play. (note that it's not easy for any race, but if you had to rank it, i'd do it in that order)
I disagree. You assume that there are equal numbers of players for each race and terran is pushed to the bottom while zerg and protoss get higher. This has never been true. Even in early WoL Terran has been the race used the least either because it's more frustrating(never met a terran player admitting the opponent played better) or more boring. I actually think that the pool of top players that aligulac takes is representative of the overall population. If there are less Terrans overall aligulac winrates are representative of the balance
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On May 11 2014 06:42 eusoc wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2014 09:48 Kitaen wrote:On May 07 2014 01:16 Hider wrote:On May 06 2014 23:25 Orek wrote:On May 06 2014 22:41 Ghanburighan wrote:On May 06 2014 21:19 Heavenlee wrote:Lol this mutineer guy. According to aligulac, based on major and premier tournaments, PvT was 47.82% and TvZ 44.22%. So even favored in TvP. Not exactly 33% winrate like your magical math seems to indicate. That's statistics for you. http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ I concur with the general criticism of how he argues, but if you distance yourself sufficiently, there's a point to what he's saying. Also from the Aligulac stats you can see that there are at least twice as many ZvZ and PvP games than TvT games in tournaments. This means that the T population has been pushed down (this doesn't mean that the actual number of players is different, it just says that they do not reach later stages of tournaments to compete against each other). A theoretical consequence of this is that the winrates that you quote come about when the very best terrans (arbitrarily and for illustration, let's call them the top 10 of the world), compete against the very best P and Z, and also mediocre P and Z (once again only for illustration, let's double the population due to Aligulac stats, and say top 20 P and Z). This means that ideally, the winrate ought to be higher for T. The problem is, we do not know what the equal T meets equal P/Z winrate is because there's no way to measure the skill of a player. All we can say is that T populations are worryingly low, and the current winrates suggest that no repopulation will occur. OK. Now I get it. He just needed a good translator like you. By the way, is there a way to know how many mirror match-ups are played per month in Aligulac? I can find them in lists, but those are per 14 days. As for non-mirror match-ups, Terran related match-up has been the least played one since freaking February 2012, which is even before the notorious queen patch. That is, TvZ + PvT < TvZ + ZvP and ZvP + PvT for the last 20 months. Same stats for mirror isn't available in Aligulac as far as I know, but it must be similar. Low number of Terran games is quite alarming for sure. Edit: I meant February 2012, not September Regardless though, there is a problem with the way he argues. He asks other people to do the math (without having done it himself), and for some reason he claims that the answer to (the math he hasn't done) is 33/67. Without having done the math myself, I am quite convinced that it is nowhere that low. I think terran win/rates are more likely to be reduced by 5 percentage point or something like that, but too some extent it also depends on the assumptions you make before you adjust the win/rates. as stated before, the biggest lie of mr kim and all aligulac statistics is the simple fact that ladder and tournament systems will always balance out at a near 50-50 win rate. it is supposed to work that way. that does not mean that there is no imbalance. the 60-70 terrans that are not GM anymore still have a 50-50 win rate, but not in the highest league, now they compete in masters and code A/B. if you would let all previous GM's play each other in a 5000 player pool there surely would be a 60-40 win ratio across the board for pvt and zvt. it's not that suddenly all protoss and zergs have figured out the game so much better than their terran pendants, neither was it the other way round when hellbats were OP or throughout 2011 when terrans dominated. one word on the topic itsself. terran is doing poorly because it's way to easy to defend vs early aggression (with MSC, queens, etc). that alone would maybe not be biggest deal but paired with the fact that you are vulnerable to a plethora of timings and all ins yourself makes the whole metagame not only seem unbalanced but frustrating aswell. and with frustration comes bad play. and i can assure you that you need to play absolutely flawless to hold all ins as a terran. zerg is a little bit more forgiving and protoss requires the least of "on the edge" play. (note that it's not easy for any race, but if you had to rank it, i'd do it in that order) Even in early WoL Terran has been the race used the least either because it's more frustrating(never met a terran player admitting the opponent played better) or more boring.
Source of that information?
Based on aligulac
April 2011 (list 30)
102 PvP, 140 TvT, 122 ZvZ
August 2011 (list 40)
197 PvP, 310 TvT, 250 ZvZ
January 2012 (list 50)
125 PvP, 131 TvT, 244 ZvZ
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EPT
