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On October 13 2014 16:31 pure.Wasted wrote:
Anyone who thinks that Terran is imbalanced in TvZ, please feel free to explain what is actually imbalanced about the match-up.
A brief history: HOTS TvZ started Terran favored because Zerg had no idea how to deal with WMs. Eventually, with the help of an Overseer movement buff, they adapted. By the time DRG beat Innovation, no one was saying "imba," some people were saying "stale." Then the following things happened:
1) WM nerfed to hell in TvZ.
2) Combined mech/air upgrades for Terran (don't affect WM).
3) Removed Hellbat upgrade requirement.
4) WM unnerfed to exactly how it used to be in TvZ.
5) Thor attack priority changed so they're better against Mutalisks.
So what do you blame? It can't be WMs because they weren't a problem pre-nerf. It can't be combined upgrades because that only affects SH/mech games and mech timing builds (I'd love to know how many of the TvZs being talked about featured mech timing builds, and how many of those succeeded vs. failed) and no one's been raising a fuss over those anyway. As I see it, if there is an imbalance, the only possible candidates are no-upgrade Hellbats and Thors with new attack priority (I'd love to see some stats on Thor use with bio post-patch, and whether the game was a win or a loss). That feels like a stretch to me.
Is the map pool at fault? Three of the maps in 2014 S3's pool are bigger than Whirlwind. Another three are damn close. Only Overgrowth is smaller, but Zerg seem to like it fine anyway.
If you think there's a problem, what is the problem?
Well, I think we can agree upon the fact that it's definitely no coincidence that Terran won 7 out of 11 premier tournaments since the patch. Exeptions being:
DH Stockholm: no top Korean Terran and MMA as the strongest there, lost to soO which should just be.... normal.
Taiwan Open: Probably the only tournament a Terran could have won, but didn't. Taeja/Bomber might have been the favorites there and lost.
WECG: There was literally no Terran in the tournament :-P
KeSpa-Cup: Not a single TvZ in the entire tournament.
Now... what to blame? Probably the combination of the points you mentioned. At the beginning of HotS, Zerg had a quite hard time against Terran. It took them quite some time to find an answer to the Parade Push in a macro game. Of course there were tons of victories due to some cheeses and all-ins, but we can't really count them as a counter, can we?
After some time the Zerg just started to build up huge amounts of Mutalisks (+Overseer buff, which helped with this style of course), in order to gain control over the game and once the muta flock was big enough, they'd just straight up win. I don't think the game was imbalanced back then and I never really understood the Widow Mine nerf (although I liked it. as a "normal" player, widow mines were just annoying :-P )... but it happened. Afterwards Zerg got quite strong... of course.
But now, with Thors being stronger against Mutalisks AND the Widow Mines being at their pre-nerf state... we kinda have the same game as before, minus the answer the Zerg have come up with to deal with the parade push. I just think it's weird that they decided to buff Widow Mines to the pre-nerf state AND decided to weaken the Zergs answer to this style from back then, by buffing the counter. Of course without giving the Zerg any other option to deal with the Parade Push.
And of course there's the omnipresent danger of some kind of Hellbat push, which doesn't allow Zerg to drone up freely. And once behind against the Parade Push Style... everyone know that's not gonna go well (-> X minute death animation). I'm not saying Zerg should be allowed to drone up, but right now everything combined just seems to be really hard to deal with.
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On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac?
Because Aligulac is not a good measurement of anything. It doesn't take into account WHO the player is playing.
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so you're pulling numbers from a rusty korean and 2 foreigners?, you could've used better examples.
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On October 13 2014 23:05 DinoMight wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Because Aligulac is not a good measurement of anything. It doesn't take into account WHO the player is playing.
nor what happend, even the best players can make mistakes and throw games.
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On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac?
Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days:
Seacraft Weekly #24:
TvZ 7–1 (87.50%)
Notable TvZs: ???
WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs:
TvZ 3–2 (60.00%)
Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty
Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31
TvZ 0–0 (0%)
Notable TvZs: ---
go4sc2 Cup Europe #413
TvZ 8–9 (47.06%)
Notable TvZs:
YoDa 1-2 TargA
Dragon 0–2 Tefel
PxL-Lan #41
TvZ 1–4 (20.00%)
Notable TvZs: ???
--> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time.
It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get:
WCS AM: 27-15 (64%)
WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%)
GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%)
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On October 13 2014 23:09 Meavis wrote:so you're pulling numbers from a rusty korean and 2 foreigners?, you could've used better examples.
Rusty korean?DRG is codes S level.
hyun is what again rusty korean?
Well scarlett pre patch have best match up vs Terran and now its worst.
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On October 13 2014 23:04 Meavis wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:
Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? you realize how silly that sounds right?
What's silly about it?
Statistically Zerg is ahead right now by a few percentage points while some terrans are doing better than others.
You can't really say that a match is imbalanced when you don't even have enough statistic to stake that claim. Especially when the cherry picked evidence contradicts the totality of the data set.
You can say that top end Zerg players have been unable to adapt to top end Terran play, because the stats does show that. But saying that Zerg, as a race, is obviously weak due to a buff to a unit that wasn't OP the last time it had the stats it has right now is silly. Sometimes, it really is just the players and not the race. Heck, depending which 17 games of my ladder history you get I'm either really bad vs Zerg or really good vs Zerg.
You have to include as many aspects and dimensions of the data to be able to make conclusions from them.
Go back to what I said months ago when terrains complained that TvP was imba, and I pointed out that Maru was able to keep a good winrate vs Protoss suggesting that it is possible for anyone to do well vs Protoss, it's just that it's very hard. And I argued that you don't make balance patches just because things are hard. A patch is not a quality of life fixer.
It's not much different right now. After Terran did will in a bunch of recent tournaments, they are still statistically down. We can't say Zerg is OP because Terran has actually been doing well in tournaments, nor can we say that Terran is OP because the overall trend is only a few percentage points different. We can't add a patch because some terrains did well in the semis of 2-4 tournaments.
People are jumping the gun and not wanting to look at the overall picture.
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Let's do the your-numbers-are-in-double-digits dance. BigJ, you know very well why such a small number of games shows next to nothing. Until we see a proper number of games (especially in Korea - Flash v Snute in my mind is a bonkers disparity in skill), we just can't make such claims.
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On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%)
And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality.
You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion.
Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything.
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On October 13 2014 16:31 pure.Wasted wrote:
Then the following things happened:
1) WM nerfed to hell in TvZ.
2) Combined mech/air upgrades for Terran (don't affect WM).
3) Removed Hellbat upgrade requirement.
4) WM unnerfed to exactly how it used to be in TvZ.
5) Thor attack priority changed so they're better against Mutalisks.
Just for the sake of completeness:
6) Banshee cloak research cost reduced from 200/200 to 100/100
7) Tank attack speed 10% faster
8) Free Ghost energy upgrade
Since HotS, terrans got 1 nerf (hellbat bonus damage vs light moved to the pre-igniter upgrade), and several buffs besides that.
If the game was supposedly balanced TvZ pre-WM nerf (if you subscribe to the one-match-based assumption that hey, DRG beat Innovation so everything was fine), then all buffs except banshee cloak were overkill.
And terrans didn't need buffs against protoss either, since according to aligulac, protoss had less than 50% winrate against terrans, and apparently aligulac is the perfect representation of balance?
(oh I forgot, aligulac is correct now for TvZ, but there are not enough data to say anything about protoss, as has been the case the past few months)
You're asking which one of those buffs could cause terran to be favored? I wasn't aware that SC2 was balanced around isolated abilities. I thought a combination of (small?) changes could have huge impacts.
Something like buffing all tech paths of terrans while using a terran-favored map pool.
But terrans are still whining that they need buffs, so I guess it's still not enough.
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On October 13 2014 23:34 Maniak_ wrote:
Just for the sake of completeness:
6) Banshee cloak research cost reduced from 200/200 to 100/100
7) Tank attack speed 10% faster
8) Free Ghost energy upgrade
Banshee's and cloak particularly are used mostly in the TvT MU and sometimes in TvZ but that's usualy mech.
tanks again, are only mech, and mech is pretty much dead in TvZ because of swarmhost muta.
the ghost energy upgrade obviously had an effect, but only in the TvP MU.
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On October 13 2014 23:34 Maniak_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 16:31 pure.Wasted wrote:
Then the following things happened:
1) WM nerfed to hell in TvZ.
2) Combined mech/air upgrades for Terran (don't affect WM).
3) Removed Hellbat upgrade requirement.
4) WM unnerfed to exactly how it used to be in TvZ.
5) Thor attack priority changed so they're better against Mutalisks. Just for the sake of completeness: 6) Banshee cloak research cost reduced from 200/200 to 100/100 7) Tank attack speed 10% faster 8) Free Ghost energy upgrade Since HotS, terrans got 1 nerf (hellbat bonus damage vs light moved to the pre-igniter upgrade), and several buffs besides that. If the game was supposedly balanced TvZ pre-WM nerf (if you subscribe to the one-match-based assumption that hey, DRG beat Innovation so everything was fine), then all buffs except banshee cloak were overkill. And terrans didn't need buffs against protoss either, since according to aligulac, protoss had less than 50% winrate against terrans, and apparently aligulac is the perfect representation of balance? (oh I forgot, aligulac is correct now for TvZ, but there are not enough data to say anything about protoss, as has been the case the past few months) You're asking which one of those buffs could cause terran to be favored? I wasn't aware that SC2 was balanced around isolated abilities. I thought a combination of (small?) changes could have huge impacts. Something like buffing all tech paths of terrans while using a terran-favored map pool. But terrans are still whining that they need buffs, so I guess it's still not enough.
He's saying that the past few pages of people complaining that the widow mine is too strong were yelling without looking at the facts.
How often in those 17 games that people brought up was the game won by cloaked banshees? How many were lost because zerg overmade spores in preparation for cloaked banshees? How many were won by massive tank pushes?
The closest you could get is the threat of a hellbat transition might scare some zergs. That's about it for the terran buffs in the TvZ matchup. And yet, most matchups were played with mostly marine/marauder/medivac with a few support units sprinkled in.
He was showing that the last several pages of balance whine accuse terran buffs is silly because none of the buffs actually affected what actually happens in the matchup. Unless you're one of those people who believe the ghost energy buff broke TvZ.
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On October 13 2014 23:30 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%) And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality. You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion. Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything.
... which was exactly his point. Namely that statements such as "nothing is broken because aligulac's 48%" are not useful, because aligulac along is not reflective of the full picture.
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On October 13 2014 23:28 Ghanburighan wrote:
Let's do the your-numbers-are-in-double-digits dance. BigJ, you know very well why such a small number of games shows next to nothing. Until we see a proper number of games (especially in Korea - Flash v Snute in my mind is a bonkers disparity in skill), we just can't make such claims.
He's not wrong in an individual player performance metric. But he's wrong in that we have to ignore all other data sets to make conclusions.
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On October 13 2014 23:28 Ghanburighan wrote:
Let's do the your-numbers-are-in-double-digits dance. BigJ, you know very well why such a small number of games shows next to nothing. Until we see a proper number of games (especially in Korea - Flash v Snute in my mind is a bonkers disparity in skill), we just can't make such claims.
But that's the point. You will NEVER get a huge number of games in a few weeks when you only consider the games we are actually interested in.
And adding matches that we are not interested in is NOT a substitute for a huge number of highlevel games.
It is a dilemma which we do not solve by closing our eyes to the flaws that aligulac has, just as it isn't solved by just looking at WCS winrates. Our best bet is to watch as many indicators as possible simultanously and in particular, also watching the games.
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On October 13 2014 23:40 antiRW wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 23:30 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%) And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality. You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion. Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything. ... which was exactly his point. Namely that statements such as "nothing is broken because aligulac's 48%" are not useful, because aligulac along is not reflective of the full picture.
You don't choose one over the other.
Aligulac shows that zerg, as a race, is doing well. And the individual stats shows that 5-6 zerg players are not doing as well as the overall stats.
That does not mean that Zerg, as a race, is weak.
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On October 13 2014 23:44 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 23:40 antiRW wrote:On October 13 2014 23:30 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%) And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality. You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion. Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything. ... which was exactly his point. Namely that statements such as "nothing is broken because aligulac's 48%" are not useful, because aligulac along is not reflective of the full picture. You don't choose one over the other. Aligulac shows that zerg, as a race, is doing well. And the individual stats shows that 5-6 zerg players are not doing as well as the overall stats. That does not mean that Zerg, as a race, is weak.
Only if you think that the success of zerg as a race is measured by Aligulac. You can make a case for that, but one can just as well use other metrics: Overall or M/GM ladder stats, WCS tournaments only, GSL. Obviously we don't want to have that debate every single time and the honest approach would be to always contrast the different indicators.
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On October 13 2014 23:41 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 23:28 Ghanburighan wrote:
Let's do the your-numbers-are-in-double-digits dance. BigJ, you know very well why such a small number of games shows next to nothing. Until we see a proper number of games (especially in Korea - Flash v Snute in my mind is a bonkers disparity in skill), we just can't make such claims. But that's the point. You will NEVER get a huge number of games in a few weeks when you only consider the games we are actually interested in. And adding matches that we are not interested in is NOT a substitute for a huge number of highlevel games. It is a dilemma which we do not solve by closing our eyes to the flaws that aligulac has, just as it isn't solved by just looking at WCS winrates. Our best bet is to watch as many indicators as possible simultanously and in particular, also watching the games.
There are easy solutions,
a) we wait for more games,
b) we try to explain why the numbers are as they are.
We are not constrained to looking at a few weeks. We need to give players time to experiment (or in this case, for zergs to learn the new timings and to learn to micro against WM again). Once the dust settles, we'll know what's up. We have only recently seen the new corruptor-style come out, we'll see in some time where the game is going with it.
Also, there is a story for why the 17 sets were T favoured. Some of the MUs were heavily T favoured (Heart v Hyun, Flash v Snute, etc), and in others major mistakes were made on the Z side which were not reciprocated on the T side. I'd like to add that Dark played a great game against TY today that he should have won, had he not misclicked 50 supply of banes on an OC that he didn't even kill. These sorts of unforced errors happen, and they show nothing about balance. They can skew balance, though, if you don't have enough numbers to make the claim.
Regarding Aligulac, I'm not convinced that the numbers show nothing. For example, Tefel beating Yoda is a significant result in my mind as I consider Yoda miles ahead in terms of skill. But the real point is, if you want to make the claim that Aligulac stats do not support the claim that Z is weak to T, then you have to explain the mechanism by which Z gets better results in those tournaments. Aligulac takes all tournaments, so in a balanced MU, the winrate should be 50%.
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On October 13 2014 23:44 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2014 23:40 antiRW wrote:On October 13 2014 23:30 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote:
I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff.
I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings
2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all.
3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending.
I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%) And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality. You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion. Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything. ... which was exactly his point. Namely that statements such as "nothing is broken because aligulac's 48%" are not useful, because aligulac along is not reflective of the full picture. You don't choose one over the other. Aligulac shows that zerg, as a race, is doing well. And the individual stats shows that 5-6 zerg players are not doing as well as the overall stats. That does not mean that Zerg, as a race, is weak.
That is so theoretical though.
What if these 5 zerg players actually farm online cups with no real competition but lose against equally skilled players for the most part.
I don't think this means that zerg as a race is doing "fine" (btw that's an example, i don't imply anything here)
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Imo, best way is to look at the games themself. Numbers are always just gonna be numbers.
That post dfw posted shows alot more to me than the winrates of GSL or WCS Am.
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EPT
