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HaIf
Canada234 Posts
On March 12 2011 05:21 Archerofaiur wrote: Does your MMR change? While your skill doesn't change, your MMR will lower because you are in a lower tier of skill compared to the other players. I don't think the MMR requirements for each league will change over time, but you will need a higher skill to reach said MMRs. | ||
Excalibur_Z
United States12252 Posts
On March 12 2011 05:07 Archerofaiur wrote: This is the heart of what i was saying. At first you would be playing more gold. Than as your uncertainty level dropped you would be playing more bronze. These games would take longer to find because the system would try to match you with your now lower uncertainty (which is closer to bronze which are more seldom). You would win these games thus propelling your uncertainty back to its original value. But this isn't happening for only you. Everyone else in Silver will have their MMRs drop as a result too. Those are the players you'll go 50-50 with, but that will happen in the Bronze range. | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12252 Posts
On March 12 2011 05:19 HaIf wrote: Let's just put numbers to this. Assume there are 100,000 active players on the server you are playing. This means there are : 20,000 Bronze (Rank 100,000-80,000) 20,000 Silver (Rank 79,999-60,000) 20,000 Gold (Rank 59,999-40,000) 20,000 Platinum (Rank 39,999-20,000) 18,000 Diamond (Rank 19,999-2,000) 2,000 Masters (Rank 1,999-1) If you are in the middle of the silver league, skill wise, this puts you at rank 70,000th Now assuming the worst 15,000 players quit, while the other remain active, the ladder will re-balance to the following : 17,000 Bronze (Rank 85,000-68,000) 17,000 Silver (Rank 67,999-51,000) 17,000 Gold (Rank 50,999-34,000) 17,000 Platinum (Rank 33,999-17,000) 15,300 Diamond (Rank 16,999-1,700) 1,700 Masters (Rank 1,699-1) Your skill rank will not have changed, and you will remain at 70,000th, which places you in the bronze league. (Please indicate if anything is wrong with this analysis.) Yeah that's basically correct. It's technically not accurate to equate fixed percentages like that (because it's MMR breakpoints and not percentages that define the league boundaries). However, the MMR breakpoints themselves equate to estimated percentages. | ||
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HaIf
Canada234 Posts
On March 12 2011 05:39 Excalibur_Z wrote: Yeah that's basically correct. It's technically not accurate to equate fixed percentages like that (because it's MMR breakpoints and not percentages that define the league boundaries). However, the MMR breakpoints themselves equate to estimated percentages. I see, thanks for clarifying. However it doesn't affect the end-result. | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12252 Posts
On March 12 2011 05:36 Archerofaiur wrote: So if your MMR will drop over time and your points drift towards your MMR over time shouldnt we see a drop in points over time? The bonus pool effectively curbs or mitigates the point drop because players will generally earn twice as many points as they lose as long as they have bonus pool. If there were no bonus pool then the point drop would be easier to notice. Another issue is that the effect is very gradual -- you don't have all of Bronze quitting/going inactive at once, they trickle out of the system. Over time people tend to notice, though, such as the "Gold league is way harder now than it was at release" phenomenon that people report after coming back from a long break. | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
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Defacer
Canada5052 Posts
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smdr
4 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12252 Posts
On March 12 2011 05:48 Archerofaiur wrote: So points dont migrate toward MMR than. MMR should be dropping over time and the bonus pool causes points to rise over time. No, they still do. The bonus pool just obfuscates. You would have to look at solely adjusted points (points with spent bonus pool and division/league offsets removed). | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12252 Posts
On March 12 2011 05:58 Archerofaiur wrote: Solely adjusted points do but points (the value you see on Battlenet) dont. Right, exactly. | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
If MMR is gradually decreasing = pull to put you in a lower league and Points are gradually increasing = pull to put you higher in your individual devisional league Does this not create a paradoxical effect where players who play allot* will rise in their individual divisional league but than suddenly drop to a lower league? *use their bonus points but are also at risk for MMR deflation because they are active | ||
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UsainBolt
Canada12 Posts
On March 12 2011 06:28 Archerofaiur wrote: Ok so that leads to the next line of questioning. If MMR is gradually decreasing = pull to put you in a lower league and Points are gradually increasing = pull to put you higher in your individual devisional league Does this not create a paradoxical effect where players who play allot* will rise in their individual divisional league but than suddenly drop to a lower league? *use their bonus points but are also at risk for MMR deflation I think it does.. well it happened to me. I was top 10 in NA in 4s random when Master league came out ( I don't brag it just to explain my experience ) I had something like 3500 pts in diamond. Then Master league came out. All my friend got it in less then 3 games.. I had to win like 25 in a row to get it. Fine I guess my MMR was lower ( 71% win rate with 1000 games played.. ). but last night i got demoted O_o .. I was on a 10 win streaks.. then I lost a favored game - 22 pts and.. demoted to diamond. Now I have only 3000 pts.. I don't understand and i'm kind of mad ;( | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12252 Posts
On March 12 2011 06:28 Archerofaiur wrote: Ok so that leads to the next line of questioning. If MMR is gradually decreasing = pull to put you in a lower league and Points are gradually increasing = pull to put you higher in your individual devisional league Does this not create a paradoxical effect where players who play allot* will rise in their individual divisional league but than suddenly drop to a lower league? *use their bonus points but are also at risk for MMR deflation because they are active It's not actual deflation, it's more like recalibration. The "worth" of a given MMR value changes over time based on the current player distribution. | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
On March 12 2011 07:02 Excalibur_Z wrote: It's not actual deflation, it's more like recalibration. The "worth" of a given MMR value changes over time based on the current player distribution. But the paradoxical effect still holds. You could be rising in your individual league and than all of the sudden drop to the next lower league. Meanwhile the inactive players who were are the bottom of your original league would remain there. | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12252 Posts
On March 12 2011 07:04 Archerofaiur wrote: But the paradoxical effect still holds. You could be rising in your individual league and than all of the sudden drop to the next lower league. Meanwhile the inactive players who were are the bottom of your original league would remain there. Yeah, that does happen. I've read a lot of posts that say "I was rank 10 in my division and I got demoted wtf!" not realizing that their adjusted points were probably very low and MMR probably even lower than that. It's a big gripe a lot of people who don't fully understand the system have, and that's understandable because on the surface it is paradoxical. | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
Im also curious how ladder resets play into this. Does anyone have extensive knowledge of how this worked in the WC3 ladder? | ||
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Zystra
United Kingdom79 Posts
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Lysenko
Iceland2128 Posts
On March 12 2011 07:14 Excalibur_Z wrote: Yeah, that does happen. I've read a lot of posts that say "I was rank 10 in my division and I got demoted wtf!" not realizing that their adjusted points were probably very low and MMR probably even lower than that. It's a big gripe a lot of people who don't fully understand the system have, and that's understandable because on the surface it is paradoxical. I made a post recently talking about my demotion to rank 1 Bronze from a solid rank 1 Silver position (largely due to activity) after a short break from the game, and offering the observation that it feels like Silver players had gotten a lot stronger in a short time. My Silver division had mostly gone inactive before my demotion. About 30 games later, once I got back into practice, I was promoted back into a brand-new Silver division, but with a difference -- this one was mostly filled with active players. Now, I'm finding I'm bouncing up and down in the ranking. I am playing a lot, which keeps me higher than people who don't spend their bonus pool, but I can see that adjusted points are having a more significant impact. It would be ideal if the point ranking system could be more consistent and possibly deemphasize activity in the rankings. The large number of bonus points issued mean that people usually are not sufficiently active to spend their points, so rankings are dominated by activity rather than skill. | ||
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