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United States12235 Posts
On February 23 2011 09:33 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +
For example, let's say two players are matched together, Player A with 1500 MMR and 0 points and Player B with 1000 MMR and 0 points. Each player would see the other as Favored and would either earn many or lose few points depending on the outcome. If Player A won, because Player A's MMR is larger than Player B's by a fairly large margin, the MMRs of each player would not change very much. If Player B won, B's MMR would rise and A's MMR would fall to a greater extent than if A had won.
I'm confused about this paragraph. Why would Player A see Player B as favored even though Player A's MMR is significantly higher?
Because it compares opponent MMR to your adjusted points when calculating how many points a match is worth for you. Then it finds a value for the other guy comparing your MMR to your opponent's adjusted points. So it's not comparing 1500 to 1000, that's only done for matching players together. Instead, it's comparing 1000 to 0 and 1500 to 0, both of which would show the other person as Favored, allowing points to approach MMR more quickly. This is mentioned in the paragraph above the one you quoted, by the way =)
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On February 23 2011 09:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2011 09:33 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
For example, let's say two players are matched together, Player A with 1500 MMR and 0 points and Player B with 1000 MMR and 0 points. Each player would see the other as Favored and would either earn many or lose few points depending on the outcome. If Player A won, because Player A's MMR is larger than Player B's by a fairly large margin, the MMRs of each player would not change very much. If Player B won, B's MMR would rise and A's MMR would fall to a greater extent than if A had won.
I'm confused about this paragraph. Why would Player A see Player B as favored even though Player A's MMR is significantly higher? Because it compares opponent MMR to your adjusted points when calculating how many points a match is worth for you. Then it finds a value for the other guy comparing your MMR to your opponent's adjusted points. So it's not comparing 1500 to 1000, that's only done for matching players together. Instead, it's comparing 1000 to 0 and 1500 to 0, both of which would show the other person as Favored, allowing points to approach MMR more quickly. This is mentioned in the paragraph above the one you quoted, by the way =)
Let me try to explain it in my way...
The reason it let you know if you are favored or not is mainly for you to know roughly how many points you'll win or lose. One can be competitive regardless of his rank depending on a lot of factores, but this game has a ranking system, so how many points you'll win or lose should be important.
Then you have your MMR and your points. Your points want to one day translate as accurate as possible as your MMR, but he can only go up if you win and can only go down if you lose.
Then let's say you have 1200 MMR and 1200 points. Then your points are already where your MMR is and if you lose MMR (losing a game ) or gain MMR the points can easily follow it.
But if you have 2000 MMR and 100 points, than your points will try to get into that regardless of how dumb your opponent is. Well, if the opponent is 100 MMR than he actually might think it doesn't matter, but most likelly (if you indeed have 2000 MMR) you'll be facing 2000 MMR guys as well, then the points will jump after each victory and that's why you see everyone as favored till you finally have your points in sintony with your MMR. The thing is, if you have 3000 MMR and 200 points and your enemy also have 3000MMR and 200 points, then both will see each other as favored, just because both have points that are way lower than it should've been.
Though I am saying points, that is adjusted points with league and divisions modifiers (and 0 spent bonus pool), not just your actual points.
I hope the players that can't understand the OP can understand it with my explanation. o.o
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How do you know the number of tiers for bronze-plat? Was this proven with the data on sc2ranks? Because the numbers seem pretty arbitrary.
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There are six leagues: Master, Diamond, Platinum, Gold, Silver, and Bronze. It is possible to be placed in any league except for Master, which requires a promotion.
Its not possible to place into Diamond either now, you must be promoted to it as well.
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so 12 is what you'd gain for about equal MMR? kk
also, the graphs make it WAY easier to understand, thanks for those
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United States12235 Posts
On February 23 2011 10:42 Bean5487 wrote:Show nested quote +
There are six leagues: Master, Diamond, Platinum, Gold, Silver, and Bronze. It is possible to be placed in any league except for Master, which requires a promotion.
Its not possible to place into Diamond either now, you must be promoted to it as well.
Yes it is, I did it 3 weeks ago.
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United States12235 Posts
On February 23 2011 10:19 sinani206 wrote:
How do you know the number of tiers for bronze-plat? Was this proven with the data on sc2ranks? Because the numbers seem pretty arbitrary.
I was going through it in a few posts at the end of the Division Tiers thread. I used the LA server because of how relatively inactive it is and tracked how divisions were growing on the Battle.net site. At any given time, those were the number of divisions that were increasing in size, meaning they are each different tiers.
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This post is incredible, how did you derive this data?
<edit> nm.. you just answered the question </edit>
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On February 22 2011 15:29 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2011 15:22 Valette1565 wrote:
This is all very interesting, but a bit over my head. How does MMR affect, say, the top 200? Is it possible that the top 200 in points, which is what we see on battlenet, are not the 200 players w/ the highest or best MMR? We think the Top 200 is the top X MMR players, sorted by points with offsets factored out. However, it's instead possible that there is a certain activity threshold, since this is mentioned in the fine print at the bottom of each Top 200 blog post. Because we're not 100% positive, that has been taken out of the write-up. Note, however, that when the Grandmaster league is introduced, it is highly probable that it will encompass the Top 200 MMR moving average players, just as it is for lower leagues.
The blizzard top 200 is definitely not the just the top 200 MMR players. It also seems not to be the top 200 MMR players that meet an activity threshold.
From what I see on the SEA server a very high MMR player that still has many bonus points but was active that week can end up on the top 200 but much lower than people of a similar MMR. For example I am at 25th this week on the top 200 and a player I played in that week that was favored against me (I lost 2 points) is at 176. Though he was active this week he still has 1000+ bonus points and has only played 280 ladder games total.
From this it seems like the top 200 is based on MMR but modified by recent activity rather than a threshold. Would need more testing to try figure out how it is modified. Could just be something like MMRx0.8 if you were only 80% active enough or maybe don't have enough total games played or have plenty of bonus pool left? Does not make much sense for a true top 200 but makes it more interesting for players.
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This is great! thanks for putting so much work into this
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I had always assumed Bnet2.0 matched people up based on voodoo rituals. Thank you for this in depth prove-me-wrong :D
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On February 22 2011 19:21 TFB wrote:
Lovely post OP.
Just one question...
I may have read this wrong, but your post implies very heavily indeed that it is completely impossible to calculate (or even have a stab at) one's underlying rating from the colours and positions we're presented with.
Would you go so far as to state this explicitly?
For what it's worth, I am entirely of the opinion that our underlying ratings are sufficiently mathematically distant from what we're presented with as to make any attempt at calculating them futile, even if that attempt was made by after being handed the relevant source code*.
* Because we'd need access to the result of every game played on Bnet.
I actually think we are very close to being able to calculate our own mmr's, or at least make reasonable estimates. I think eventually you will see mmr displayed on your page on sc2ranks or some other site.
I think there are only a couple of real challenges in front of being able to estimate your mmr in a fairly accurate way and these challenges all stem from division tiers, which people like the OP are making discoveries about all the time.
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Do I understand it right that with the installation of the Master League one cannot be placed directly to Diamond?
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United States12235 Posts
On February 23 2011 23:42 [F_]aths wrote:
Do I understand it right that with the installation of the Master League one cannot be placed directly to Diamond?
You definitely can place directly into Diamond now, unless there was some hotfix applied within the last 3 weeks that prevented that.
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Very interesting post, and a job very well done.
According to blizz (http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/1786292#blog), it seems that one should not be able to get into Diamond directly: [...] When you are finally placed in one of the four leagues (Battle.net will not initially place you in a league above Platinum) [...]
Edit: Just saw that the post in the bnet blog was done in January - so maybe they changed that since then 
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Sorry if I'm missing something, but I have a question:
I bought the game when it first came out, got to diamond in maybe 25 games, then stopped playing for almost 4 months. Now, when I came back I had a ridiculously high bonus pool (I think near 1700, I was still logging on to play every now and then). Now I have started playing regularly again, and my bonus pool is down to 900, and I'm at 2100 diamond. So, if I'm understanding this right, my rating really means nothing, since I have just been spending my bonus pool to get to 2100. Is this hurting my MMR? Like, should I just keep playing a ridiculous amount until I spend all of my bonus pool, and then will I be able to make some real progress towards getting promoted?
Like I said, I read the OP and there's just some things that have me confused, so any help would be appreciated.
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United States12235 Posts
On February 24 2011 08:19 jives wrote:Very interesting post, and a job very well done. According to blizz ( http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/1786292#blog), it seems that one should not be able to get into Diamond directly: Show nested quote +[...] When you are finally placed in one of the four leagues (Battle.net will not initially place you in a league above Platinum) [...] Edit: Just saw that the post in the bnet blog was done in January - so maybe they changed that since then
No, that's actually quite funny, because that blog post was made after patch 1.2, which is around the time I placed in Diamond with a 5-0 total record in 2v2 (and there are other records of this, too). Outdated information for the EU CMs maybe?
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United States12235 Posts
On February 24 2011 08:21 Nation_ wrote:
Sorry if I'm missing something, but I have a question:
I bought the game when it first came out, got to diamond in maybe 25 games, then stopped playing for almost 4 months. Now, when I came back I had a ridiculously high bonus pool (I think near 1700, I was still logging on to play every now and then). Now I have started playing regularly again, and my bonus pool is down to 900, and I'm at 2100 diamond. So, if I'm understanding this right, my rating really means nothing, since I have just been spending my bonus pool to get to 2100. Is this hurting my MMR? Like, should I just keep playing a ridiculous amount until I spend all of my bonus pool, and then will I be able to make some real progress towards getting promoted?
Like I said, I read the OP and there's just some things that have me confused, so any help would be appreciated.
One way to determine that is to compare your past with your present in terms of adjusted points. The current max bonus pool right now is about 2800. So, if you stopped playing and had 500 points and 250 of those were from the bonus pool, that would mean you had 250 adjusted points. If your bonus pool is down to 900, that would mean about 1900 bonus pool has been spent, so if your current displayed points are 2150 (or 250 adjusted points) or higher, then you're staying at about the same level and your MMR probably hasn't changed much.
The size of your bonus pool has nothing to do with getting promoted. The best clue about your promotion will come from the skill levels of your opponents (what league they're in, how many adjusted points in that league they have, etc.)
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It's probably possible to place directly into Diamond, but you gotta be extremely lucky and run into other Diamond players during placement matches. I've only ever gotten into Platinum even with 5-0 records.
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EPT
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