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[G] Comprehensive SC2 League and Ladder Guide - Page 4

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 82 83 84 Next
VoirDire
Profile Joined February 2009
Sweden1923 Posts
February 22 2011 21:10 GMT
#61
This is _the_ go-to link to post to any mmr/ladder questions.
FliedLice
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Germany7494 Posts
February 22 2011 21:50 GMT
#62
this actually does not help me in any way, but i'm seriously impressed by the effort you put into this stuff :O

maybe at some point your going to solve it completely or something
Kevmeister @ Dota2
Buddhist
Profile Joined April 2010
United States658 Posts
February 22 2011 21:55 GMT
#63
Thanks for the explanation :3
Alejandrisha
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6566 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-22 22:04:50
February 22 2011 22:01 GMT
#64
On February 23 2011 01:27 Alejandrisha wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 00:57 SDream wrote:
On February 23 2011 00:29 Alejandrisha wrote:
don't forget to mention the bug where you can't get promoted past plat without losses. i hate this bug :'(


This is not a bug, the system wants to know which tier on diamond (there are 7 tiers) is the best for you.


i think it actually is a bug. 21-0 in plat and still counting.. hitting 3600 masters so I think it knows enough to want to place me in sclass diamond or masters. i'll keep updating this though


diamond after 23-0. going to see if its possible to hit masters without a loss. i think this would be pretty significant since there is an undefined sigma?

i think it is s class diamond since sheth's old account is in my division but not sure.. probably is s class since it hasn't been filled entirely after all this time O_O
get rich or die mining
TL+ Member
SDream
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Brazil896 Posts
February 22 2011 22:08 GMT
#65
On February 23 2011 07:01 Alejandrisha wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 01:27 Alejandrisha wrote:
On February 23 2011 00:57 SDream wrote:
On February 23 2011 00:29 Alejandrisha wrote:
don't forget to mention the bug where you can't get promoted past plat without losses. i hate this bug :'(


This is not a bug, the system wants to know which tier on diamond (there are 7 tiers) is the best for you.


i think it actually is a bug. 21-0 in plat and still counting.. hitting 3600 masters so I think it knows enough to want to place me in sclass diamond or masters. i'll keep updating this though


diamond after 23-0. going to see if its possible to hit masters without a loss. i think this would be pretty significant since there is an undefined sigma?

i think it is s class diamond since sheth's old account is in my division but not sure.. probably is s class since it hasn't been filled entirely after all this time O_O


Master league made most S Rank diamond divisions pretty empty...
Alejandrisha
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6566 Posts
February 22 2011 22:15 GMT
#66
On February 23 2011 07:08 SDream wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 07:01 Alejandrisha wrote:
On February 23 2011 01:27 Alejandrisha wrote:
On February 23 2011 00:57 SDream wrote:
On February 23 2011 00:29 Alejandrisha wrote:
don't forget to mention the bug where you can't get promoted past plat without losses. i hate this bug :'(


This is not a bug, the system wants to know which tier on diamond (there are 7 tiers) is the best for you.


i think it actually is a bug. 21-0 in plat and still counting.. hitting 3600 masters so I think it knows enough to want to place me in sclass diamond or masters. i'll keep updating this though


diamond after 23-0. going to see if its possible to hit masters without a loss. i think this would be pretty significant since there is an undefined sigma?

i think it is s class diamond since sheth's old account is in my division but not sure.. probably is s class since it hasn't been filled entirely after all this time O_O


Master league made most S Rank diamond divisions pretty empty...


true didn't think of that. but sheth's presence alone is enough to confirm it for me
get rich or die mining
TL+ Member
Klogon
Profile Blog Joined November 2002
MURICA15980 Posts
February 22 2011 22:20 GMT
#67
Brilliant job excal. Really provides insight into the mysteries of the bnet ladder haha
whatthefat
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States918 Posts
February 22 2011 22:35 GMT
#68
Fantastic work! I had no idea that it was possible for both players to be favored, and that even when bonus points are put aside, the scoring system is still not zero sum. I have to say, as someone who's spent a lot of time working with Elo ratings, I'm a little uneasy about those facts.
SlayerS_BoxeR: "I always feel sorry towards Greg (Grack?) T_T"
Alejandrisha
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6566 Posts
February 22 2011 22:41 GMT
#69
i have never heard of a player being placed in diamond. do you have any accounts of this?
get rich or die mining
TL+ Member
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12270 Posts
February 22 2011 22:47 GMT
#70
On February 23 2011 07:41 Alejandrisha wrote:
i have never heard of a player being placed in diamond. do you have any accounts of this?


tQState and I went 5-0 in 2v2 placements and got placed in Diamond. This wasn't possible before patch 1.2. I've also seen other accounts of people going 5-0 in 1v1 placements and being placed in Diamond.
Moderator
Alejandrisha
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6566 Posts
February 22 2011 22:53 GMT
#71
On February 23 2011 07:47 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 07:41 Alejandrisha wrote:
i have never heard of a player being placed in diamond. do you have any accounts of this?


tQState and I went 5-0 in 2v2 placements and got placed in Diamond. This wasn't possible before patch 1.2. I've also seen other accounts of people going 5-0 in 1v1 placements and being placed in Diamond.


very interesting. I guess it's just pot luck depending on who you hit during your placement matches
get rich or die mining
TL+ Member
genius_man16
Profile Joined February 2011
United States749 Posts
February 22 2011 22:59 GMT
#72
Wow, what a FANTASTIC post! :D Thank you to everyone who contributed for putting in the effort to put this all together. That was a great read and I learned a lot! It answered almost all of my questions except 1.

There are really no negative effects associated with going inactive. You don't get demoted from leagues due to inactivity. Your MMR does not decrease. Your points do not decrease.


You say there are no negative effects, and that's probably true, but my question is doesn't your "uncertainty" factor increase the longer you don't play? I remember I took a month off from playing 1v1 and when I came back my first two games were against a 3100 Masters (pwned lol) and then an 1100 Diamond player. That seems like quite the extreme deviation and I can only imagine it happened because my uncertainty factor magnified while I hadn't played in a long time. Especially now that I'm playing 1v1 more now I'm facing more consistent players in terms of rating.

It would make sense because the longer you don't play the more "rusty" you get.
Dyrus | Vooby | Balls | Meteos | WildTurtle | Bjergsen | Cop | sexPeke | Xpecial | Aphromoo | Scarra |
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12270 Posts
February 22 2011 23:06 GMT
#73
On February 23 2011 07:59 genius_man16 wrote:
Wow, what a FANTASTIC post! :D Thank you to everyone who contributed for putting in the effort to put this all together. That was a great read and I learned a lot! It answered almost all of my questions except 1.

Show nested quote +
There are really no negative effects associated with going inactive. You don't get demoted from leagues due to inactivity. Your MMR does not decrease. Your points do not decrease.


You say there are no negative effects, and that's probably true, but my question is doesn't your "uncertainty" factor increase the longer you don't play? I remember I took a month off from playing 1v1 and when I came back my first two games were against a 3100 Masters (pwned lol) and then an 1100 Diamond player. That seems like quite the extreme deviation and I can only imagine it happened because my uncertainty factor magnified while I hadn't played in a long time. Especially now that I'm playing 1v1 more now I'm facing more consistent players in terms of rating.

It would make sense because the longer you don't play the more "rusty" you get.


We don't believe inactivity increases your uncertainty (though it does in similar systems such as TrueSkill). That 1100 Diamond player probably had like 2k bonus pool remaining =)
Moderator
TheRPGAddict
Profile Joined October 2010
United States1403 Posts
February 22 2011 23:13 GMT
#74
Damn nice work on this. Very informative. However, I still like to keep it simple and just advocate to just go play the game regardless of ladder ranking :p.
AXygnus
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Portugal1008 Posts
February 22 2011 23:19 GMT
#75
Neat. The system has been hard for me to understand, but I seem to be somewhat grasping what it's about.
"To create, to recreate. To create, to recreate. Down to the last seed, I stand with a dark stare. Still silent. Still frighteningly silent."
michaelhasanalias
Profile Joined May 2010
Korea (South)1231 Posts
February 22 2011 23:31 GMT
#76
On February 23 2011 00:58 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2011 17:33 michaelhasanalias wrote:
I think since you've opted to provide a new nomenclature for divisions, it might behoove you to use "Tier 1" as the most common division rank for each league.

For example, the old Rank-E Diamond division is by far the most common Diamond Division tier. Perhaps this should be Tier 1, with others going above and below it?

It still seems somewhat paradoxical that your moving average must also stabilize, as that in itself is a stabilization metric. So what ends up promoting you (according to this) would be something like a moving average average.

I remain convinced that your hidden MMR's moving average need only eclipse specific point thresholds to be promoted, but of course I'm still trying to prove it.


I think you should add a call to action at the end for players to gather more data to analyze


- If a player has more than X bonus pool (inactivity threshold), is he spending at least 90 per week?


Hadn't thought of it this way, but it makes a lot of sense. Could this explain why the sub-average divisions exist at all? As to promote players who don't spend this required amount?


That's a good point about tier nomenclature, I just numbered them from the top down to make it easier to read. I think I'll leave it as is though, since it really only affects people like us who are actively doing this research.

The moving average stabilization thing has to be true because otherwise you would have people getting promoted in the middle of long win streaks, which doesn't happen (or at least isn't common).

Naturally I'd enjoy seeing more accurate data from all ranges of players. What I really want to see is examples of players or teams across all leagues that gain exactly +12 points (excluding bonus pool) for a win and causing their opponents to lose exactly -12 points in the same game. =]


Well, at least for me, I think the reason we don't see this happen is because once someone goes on a long win streak, his moving average still hasn't caught up, and it wasn't high enough before to promote him.

A lot of data sets from players (my SEA 1's included) show examples of someone losing 3 or 4 games after a long winning streak and then being promoted after a win.

However, their simple moving averages (at least over 10 or more games) were still increasing the entire time.



(And I suppose I'm tempted to agree about the division tier naming. At least, until we have completely corroborated evidence both what the tier offsets are and how numerous, and how many players go into each, there's no use in renaming them a third time.)
KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players
MuteZephyr
Profile Joined August 2010
Lithuania448 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-22 23:59:47
February 22 2011 23:36 GMT
#77
=/ I just edited my question away because I thought I saw it answered above, guess I'll have to re-type it :[

In short, when you say "running average" do you mean an average that takes in every single game and divides by the total number of games played, or one that takes an average for a period of games at a time? Wikipedia (from what I gather, it's a bit vague) seems to point at the latter.

I'm concerned because I wouldn't want to play so many games that my total average will barely move with each win, thus cementing me in my current league without going on a 200-0 tear. Is this the case? I've been worried about this since beta

Thanks for the great write-up excal! Answered all my questions except for the above! :D
I don't Micro, I FEMTO. That's 9 orders of magnitude more extreme.
Froadac
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States6733 Posts
February 23 2011 00:01 GMT
#78
Now I know how it functions, but that won't help me get promoted
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
February 23 2011 00:33 GMT
#79

For example, let's say two players are matched together, Player A with 1500 MMR and 0 points and Player B with 1000 MMR and 0 points. Each player would see the other as Favored and would either earn many or lose few points depending on the outcome. If Player A won, because Player A's MMR is larger than Player B's by a fairly large margin, the MMRs of each player would not change very much. If Player B won, B's MMR would rise and A's MMR would fall to a greater extent than if A had won.


I'm confused about this paragraph. Why would Player A see Player B as favored even though Player A's MMR is significantly higher?
Darpa
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada4413 Posts
February 23 2011 00:47 GMT
#80
On February 23 2011 09:33 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Show nested quote +

For example, let's say two players are matched together, Player A with 1500 MMR and 0 points and Player B with 1000 MMR and 0 points. Each player would see the other as Favored and would either earn many or lose few points depending on the outcome. If Player A won, because Player A's MMR is larger than Player B's by a fairly large margin, the MMRs of each player would not change very much. If Player B won, B's MMR would rise and A's MMR would fall to a greater extent than if A had won.


I'm confused about this paragraph. Why would Player A see Player B as favored even though Player A's MMR is significantly higher?


Im confused by that paragraph also can you clarify?. And is there a way to telll which diamond tier you are in?
"losers always whine about their best, Winners go home and fuck the prom queen"
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