EPThttp://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2016994/1/Nick/
SC2 Ladder Analysis: Division Tiers - Page 39
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habbey
United States405 Posts
http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2016994/1/Nick/ | ||
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SDream
Brazil896 Posts
On February 10 2011 11:39 habbey wrote: This my brother's account and he stopped playing a while ago but according to your formula michael he should qualify for gold quite easily. Got him to play a couple and he didn't get promoted. Is this simply because his unspent is too high and thus making it too difficult to estimate accurately? http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2016994/1/Nick/ He has too many bonus pool, he is obviously a INACTIVE player. It has been confirmed by Blizzard (I think...) that inactive players need to break the boundaries further to get promoted. | ||
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random user
85 Posts
On February 10 2011 10:38 michaelhasanalias wrote: I'm just curious, but how did you get them? Just personal digging around? What were their bonus pools at the time, 0? Did you find a way to track promotion somehow? In order for me at least to find promotion data helpful, I think I would need: Rank Points, Bonus Pool, Division Name before and after promotion, and the TIME of promotion, so as to calculate the total bonus pool. This will allow me to estimate the rank point differentials for players with unspent bonus pools and then compare those with other players in their divisions. Actually I'm just going to start a data collection thread, and hopefully it will gain some support. I have a script that I run to spider a couple pages of sc2ranks and a lot of battle.net. (Note to Shadowed: the amount of traffic on your site should be insignificant... I hope you don't mind.) It doesn't capture the exact time of the promotion, but there should be enough data there to support your formula, if it is correct. Anyone with above about 225 wins or so should have all their bonus pool spent, barring binge playing early and then a long lapse. I did include a couple with lower numbers of wins, but if you click on the profile you should be able to see their bonus pool if you so choose to. I'm not sure why you need to know division name, especially since if there are offsets in gold/plat, I don't think there is a published list of which divisions are which offset? Here's some more gold data from the last time I checked. Again, these are all gold players who got promoted to plat: + Show Spoiler + http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2157786/1/Doozy/ ~8 hrs ago snapshot: 2,926 pts 254 - 192 w/l recent snapshot: 255 - 197 w/l http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/275113/1/Ender/ ~8 hrs ago snapshot: 2,861 pts 633 - 625 w/l recent snapshot: 641 - 633 w/l http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1609307/1/mGxLegioN/ ~8 hrs ago snapshot: 2,776 pts 284 - 253 w/l recent snapshot: 294 - 262 w/l http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2169300/1/Oelsner/ ~8 hrs ago snapshot: 2,776 pts 201 - 178 w/l recent snapshot: 203 - 179 w/l http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/508374/1/iNRage/ ~8 hrs ago snapshot: 2,758 pts 344 - 356 w/l recent snapshot: 365 - 364 w/l http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/500901/1/windsofwar/ ~8 hrs ago snapshot: 2,730 pts 495 - 496 w/l recent snapshot: 503 - 500 w/l Again, though, I'm more interested in whether your formula can show why the people who are still active but DIDN'T get promoted (as posted above) more than whether it can show that the people who promoted did. | ||
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LetoAtreides82
United States1188 Posts
When I got repromoted to Diamond I was placed in Kerrigan Lima with 2496 points and 207 bonus pool. my zerg account: http://www.sc2ranks.com/us/1997354/Omnius | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
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ch33psh33p
7650 Posts
On February 10 2011 12:54 michaelhasanalias wrote: I went to start analyzing this, but I came across something strange: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2377478/1/LoveYY/ladder/26648#current-rank http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2231264/1/waterberry/ladder/26648#current-rank All the wins/losses are hte same but the usernames are different. Thats a glitch that happens sometimes, just refresh and the website will fix itself. | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
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random user
85 Posts
I'll modify my script to pick up these elements as well, if I can. Bonus pool is something I can pick up, but it requires an extra page crawl for each person, so I haven't been doing it, but at least on a temporary basis I'll add it in. | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12262 Posts
Are you sure your considering bonus pool as a condition is not simply an effect of players with low bonus pool more closely resembling their MMR (as it means they've played many games and therefore spent most of their bonus pool in the process)? I still don't believe win ratio has anything to do with it. | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12262 Posts
On February 10 2011 11:48 SDream wrote: He has too many bonus pool, he is obviously a INACTIVE player. It has been confirmed by Blizzard (I think...) that inactive players need to break the boundaries further to get promoted. Hm I don't remember hearing that anywhere. In fact, the only thing I heard is that your promotion eligibility is primarily determined by your performance against the active population. | ||
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sunsetkid
6 Posts
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
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SDream
Brazil896 Posts
On February 10 2011 15:21 Excalibur_Z wrote: Hm I don't remember hearing that anywhere. In fact, the only thing I heard is that your promotion eligibility is primarily determined by your performance against the active population. Then they didn't said  Now that think of it, almost 100% of active platinum players move to a E Rank diamond, and almost 100% of players on F Rank diamond are inactive on the date of promotion, so it seems to be actually the other way around lol. Considering that Division alocation has to do with MMR. | ||
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duckamuck
Norway12 Posts
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12262 Posts
Another thing that concerns me about the seemingly successful outcomes you've had with your formula is that they don't take into account the possible tiers of the opponent sub-Diamond (where we don't know the offsets). In the example you gave, a Plat player supposedly had 1520 MMR, but how do you determine this given that Plat may have at least 2 or at most 3 tiers with unknown offsets? If the tiers are the same as Diamond, that's potentially a point shift of 126 or 189 which would drastically affect the calculation. As for determining MMR based on the change in points for a game, that too has a lot of unknowns. We know that points earned are based upon opponent MMR versus your adjusted rating (displayed points - spent bonus pool - division offset). We know that 12 points earned means an opponent MMR roughly close to your adjusted rating. The higher the points earned, the higher the opponent's MMR as compared to your adjusted rating. The lower the points earned, the lower the opponent's MMR as compared to your adjusted rating. One thing we don't know is whether this range is fixed (say +/- 10 MMR? 20? 50? for a 12-point game) or dynamic based upon your sigma (maybe a 12-point game represents opponent MMRs in the 45-55% range of your adjusted rating). | ||
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SDream
Brazil896 Posts
Silver, gold and platinum have 2 tiers. The tier "S" is where most of players are, specially the active ones that struggle to get their promotion. 90% of divisions should be here. The tier "A" is where most new players that get placed directly on that league are or people that are promoted "too soon". 10% of the divisions should be here. Time will tell if I am right, cause I think that if we're luck I'll be able to confirm it in some months, so the reset must wait a little ^^' | ||
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