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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17193 Posts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#1990.E2.80.93present:_Weighted_lottery_system Teams that just barely missed the playoffs should have a better shot at landing a top pick. Chances are they competed hard all year long for a playoff spot and entertained the fans for almost all 82 games. | ||
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Nemireck
Canada1875 Posts
On April 06 2017 15:49 Xeris wrote: I feel like the only realistic team out west is Golden State. Imo Cavs, Raps, Wiz are the only realistic teams out East. Boston is vastly overrated imo (like Raps 2 years ago... gold regular season team but will get exposed in the playoffs). Therefore, at least in my mind, the only outcomes are gsw-cavs, gsw-raps, gsw-wiz. Giving myself 2/3 chance to be right. Obviously in reality who knows, but those are my bets. I've been to Vegas twice over the past few months and won pretty consistently betting on NBA games there and I watch a lot of ball and played myself at a pretty high level, so I'm just banking on my intuition being right. Maybe I'm dead wrong, but that's part of the fun of betting :d Dunno man. From the West I still can't ever count out the Spurs. They smacked GSW around a few times this season, notwithstanding the big comeback in their last meet up, they were still rolling until the comeback started. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17193 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/XEBVw4A.png) On April 07 2017 01:10 Nemireck wrote: I still can't ever count out the Spurs. They smacked GSW around a few times this season, notwithstanding the big comeback in their last meet up, they were still rolling until the comeback started. to be fair, that's just not the case. the Spurs have not smacked GSW around a few times this season. The "rest game" the 2 teams played bares zero resemblance to a playoff game and tells us almost nothing. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/sports/515339-nba-2016-17-season?page=67#1337 | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On April 06 2017 15:49 Xeris wrote: I feel like the only realistic team out west is Golden State. Imo Cavs, Raps, Wiz are the only realistic teams out East. Boston is vastly overrated imo (like Raps 2 years ago... gold regular season team but will get exposed in the playoffs). Therefore, at least in my mind, the only outcomes are gsw-cavs, gsw-raps, gsw-wiz. Giving myself 2/3 chance to be right. Obviously in reality who knows, but those are my bets. I've been to Vegas twice over the past few months and won pretty consistently betting on NBA games there and I watch a lot of ball and played myself at a pretty high level, so I'm just banking on my intuition being right. Maybe I'm dead wrong, but that's part of the fun of betting :d I'd consider returning to Vegas or finding an online sportsbook to bet with. You can probably get 6/1 or 7/1 odds on this bet so if you're confident enough to make an even money bet then you could make some serious money at those odds | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
An informative look at the league rebounding numbers we discussed yesterday and how it relates to Westbrook. Covers stuff brought up on that reddit post, which has really gone viral since it was brought up in here a few weeks ago. | ||
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icystorage
Jollibee19350 Posts
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
On April 07 2017 07:58 JimmiC wrote: That is actually a great idea. Why not make 600 instead of 100! Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Scarecrow
Korea (South)9172 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On April 07 2017 10:57 icystorage wrote: will there be a chance of harden and WB as co-mvps? it feels such a slap to the face to the other guy if he doesnt get picked This is sports. Do you have no pride? | ||
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On April 07 2017 11:10 Scarecrow wrote: I don't get how people think it's 50:50 in terms of the actual award. An outright 3rd seed winning it would break a decades-long trend, let alone a 6th seed. I would put money on Kawhi ahead of WB, though it's probably going to be Harden who wins it. This is going to be a bit like that Kobe 35ppg season where everyone thought he should win but his seed wasn't good enough. "This is the way its always been done" is never a good reason. People who think it's 50/50 probably just hope the voters realize this too. We now have more advanced ways of measuring a player's impact than we did even back with Kobe(relatively short time). In a weird way, Westbrook averaging a triple-double kind of hurts him with a lot of people/fans. They try to find reasons to discredit that feat or judge WB supporters thinking the only reason they think he should win is b/c of that triple-double stat. If he was averaging like say 8.5 or 9 rebounds, it might have helped him in some ridiculous way. And most people think it's between Harden and Westbrook because they and their teams have kept up their great play as the season has been winding down (Harden has actually dropped off a little). In a usual MVP race, there might be already a consensus as to the winner. But in a race this close, how these four finish/have finished the season will matter more. As the season ends and the voters start publishing their arguments, I do think/hope there will be a few urging the other stubborn voters to look past the seeding of the teams. Even though I am on the Westbrook camp and probably biased, I don't think there are any wrong choices among the four. I do however think Westbrook has some momentum right now, and if voters had to vote tomorrow I can see him winning. But I can still see him winning anyways so ya...fun. | ||
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On April 07 2017 10:57 icystorage wrote: will there be a chance of harden and WB as co-mvps? it feels such a slap to the face to the other guy if he doesnt get picked Not really because the way the votes are tallied. Voters have to list their votes in order of 1-5 and so the chance of it being a tie is very low. Best thing I heard from a voter (i forgot who, might have been ernie johnson) was that for the #1 slot he was going to write Russell Harden. 8D | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On April 07 2017 14:03 MassHysteria wrote: "This is the way its always been done" is never a good reason. People who think it's 50/50 probably just hope the voters realize this too. We now have more advanced ways of measuring a player's impact than we did even back with Kobe(relatively short time). In a weird way, Westbrook averaging a triple-double kind of hurts him with a lot of people/fans. They try to find reasons to discredit that feat or judge WB supporters thinking the only reason they think he should win is b/c of that triple-double stat. If he was averaging like say 8.5 or 9 rebounds, it might have helped him in some ridiculous way. And most people think it's between Harden and Westbrook because they and their teams have kept up their great play as the season has been winding down (Harden has actually dropped off a little). In a usual MVP race, there might be already a consensus as to the winner. But in a race this close, how these four finish/have finished the season will matter more. As the season ends and the voters start publishing their arguments, I do think/hope there will be a few urging the other stubborn voters to look past the seeding of the teams. Even though I am on the Westbrook camp and probably biased, I don't think there are any wrong choices among the four. I do however think Westbrook has some momentum right now, and if voters had to vote tomorrow I can see him winning. But I can still see him winning anyways so ya...fun. Actually, in a typicall MVP race this is the time for Jackie MacMullan to write a totally nonsensical piece about the MVP race. | ||
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On April 07 2017 14:52 cLutZ wrote: Actually, in a typicall MVP race this is the time for Jackie MacMullan to write a totally nonsensical piece about the MVP race. 8D | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17193 Posts
rebounds is the "batting average" of NBA stats. very old, very popular and an imprecise measure of performance. | ||
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
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Nemireck
Canada1875 Posts
And that just reminds me how bad I think it is that to be considered "MVP" you also need to play on a great team. A guy like Butler SHOULD have serious consideration for dragging his team into the playoffs against their will... Although an argument could be made that Westbrook is doing the same thing. | ||
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
Harden and Westbrook are fairly even in many stas. Harden wins in Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares and Win Shares Per 48. Westbrook wins Plus-Minus, OPlus-minus and VORP. Something is strange when we look at the other categories like Def Rating, Defensive Win Shares and Def Plus-Minus, namely that Westbrook is actually on these lists. So if we think that Harden and Westbrook are roughly equal, or even justifiably say that Harden is having a marginally better season, shouldn't Westbrook's defensive prowess tip it in his favor? The only way we don't say that is if we tacitly discount defense, almost entirely, or if we think that offense is just inherently more important in basketball and the difference between an average and a borderline elite defender is insignificant compare to the advantage a marginally more elite offensive player adds. | ||
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