Ended up UR pirates. Early Golden Demise made me think about UB but I want Moments of Craving and stuff before I really start drafting more defensively from the looks of this format. B dried super fast and my neighbour "pushed" me to R (or so he thought, P1P1 Tendershoot Dryad but he still passed me some good G cards and a ton of them quantity-wise, I just liked my R more than dinos and there weren't that many merfolks to speculate).
I did some dubious picks on purpose like P1P1 Pirate's Hook and late pack 2 Protean Raider (the clone) over Expel from Orazca which my deck really wanted more, because I wanted to use the opportunity to test the cards.
Deck could be summed up this way: 3x Kitesail Corsair, 2x Goblin Trailblazer, 1x Storm Fleet Aerialist, 1x Fathom Fleet Firebrand, 2x Buccaneer's Bravado
+ Show Spoiler +Match 1 vs BW vampires
He's got a Forerunner and decent creatures on the curve, but lacks tricks. It'd hard because I'm not drawing my tricks and 2/3 flyers actually block a lot of stuff, while the Forerunner gives him a good clock if we race. I have to bounce it to prevent lifegain (Fanatical Firebrand blocks, then sacs itself to ping a 1/1) and really feel buried in CA, esp. since I mulled on the play and he played a t2 Zealot.
Game 2 looks like a race too, tight because of Forerunner again and me playing a t3 Brute rather than Swaggering Corsair so I can't really try to use my removal on flyers and get hits in while trying to set up lethal.
I win game 1 because my opponent miscounts his own damage (6 unblocked, I'm at 6) and tries to cast a trick so I bounce the target and drop to 2; on the crackback Buccaneer's Bravado + Sure Strike on a Trailblazer vs a single blocker nukes him.
I win game 2 off One With the Wind on Brute so my whole board is flying, and Waterknot on his own flying blocker. In either game I'd have lost on the crackback, and a single resolved Moment of Triumph (or of Craving, but that one's obvious) would have changed the game.
Match 2 vs BR mish-mash
Game 1 I mull to 5 on the draw and he goes t4 Phoenix so we move on.
Game 2 he goes t1 Fanatical Firebrand, t2 Moment of Craving on a creature during my t3, t3 3/2 dino and sac Firebrand to get rid of my remaining raid enabler, t4 Phoenix, t5 Storm Fleet Pyromancer after attacks to remove my last blocker.
So yeah, bomb + variance + perfect curve, let's chalk it up and move on.
Match 3 vs BW vampires
Again.
This one was a fight of auras, as he had pacifisms and I have some enhancements while I also needed to get rid of his Squire's Devotion asap.
The lifegain on Pious Interdiction was very relevant, and seeing how I hadn't drawn very well (I kept a land with no 2-drop figuring that the fact I've got 7 of them would help, I had to go Mogg Pirate -> Swashbuckling -> Lightning Strike in response to the trick on his blocker -> 2/3 ascend flyer after Pious Illumination on Mogg) resource management was super tense.
I raced game 1 because I had almost nothing and 2 of my creatures got an aura from me, then my opponent and if I started topdecking lands or 2-drops vs bigger creatures or lifelinkers I was done. I hit him for exactsies in the air with ascended serpent + sure strike right after he tutored Kitesail Freebooter as a flying blocker with Forerunner of the Coalition.
Game 2 was me playing Trailblazer, he tries to race rather than keep 2 blockers so I play Protean Raider... copying my 2-drop. Things go fast but I figure with my tricks I can burst him, although his clock his faster every turn. Captain's Hook on Trailblazer is "4 mana for +2/+0 aura" basically, and in the end a combo of Sure Strike, Lightning Strike, Waterknot, and topdecking Mogg pirate means that no matter what he played, I could get him for exacties (I could leave him with 1 blocker and still deal lethal even if he kept all his creatures back including the lifelinker).
The games were very close and even though I was pretty much attacking every turn and rarely threatening to block, sequencing my tricks and creatures, deciding what to hold, etc. gave me a bunch of decisions, although considering Moment of Craving would have single-handedly destroyed my plan and won the game at any time, I also left a lot in the hands of fate (and whether my opponent had drafted it, since 3 people were BW at the table and at least 2-3 more played B).
Match 2 doesn't count and I mulliganed all but one game, so it's hard to get data, but here's what I got so far:
- I passed Dive Down for Run Aground P3P4 or P3P3, I hesitated at the time and considering my deck's plan and how timewalking when a bunch of decks are aggro and others are enticed to race anyway, I think I'll pick Dive Down pretty damn high.
- I thought "I'm dead if he's got Moment of Craving" so often. The "gain 2 life" rider on both Moments and Pious Interdiction is absurdly relevant.
- Dual Shot would be a 2-for-1 against me, Shake the Foundation make me scoop, basically.
- Conversely, it felt like there was interaction in the games. But the pressure from races, and small drops starting them early, was so high that you really wanted to do 2 things in a turn to really clinch tempo in your favour. Waterknot looks like a very good card and it still felt
too expensive for me unless I had 5 mana for it + another spell (and 5th land in a 16-lands deck is slow). On the contrary Lightning Strike made or broke games, not because of the 3 damage but because of its cmc, allowing me to fit it.
- Fanatical Firebrand did some work: sacrificing itself after blocking a lifelink creature, or when Pious Interdiction was used on it + Swashbuckling I kept it around for ascend, then sacrificing it when that 3/3 vampire would have given a counter to a lifelink token. With an aerialist in my deck I actually wanted one more 1-drop if I could.
I'm really not that drawn to G from what I've seen of it. B has great cheap interaction, both aggressively and to allow stabilising with the life gain, and R has both an aggressive curve and cheap removal/tricks, so I instinctively want to be BR or BW to be the aggro-est thing around or be the one who aggro crashes against.
I liked that despite the races it felt like tricks and interactions were important and we had decisions to make, on the other hand it was a 12-man pod and with less experienced people (the 2nd place had a 3c deck and went to time twice against much softer opponents/decks than the other 3-0 contenders, for example, who all had quick games), as the format progresses I expect it to shape differently because there won't be nearly as much cheap interaction available anymore.
Also people need to learn that instead of complaining about blocking, they should remember that blocking is only one of the ways to handle aggro, just like in Amonkhet.
I'm not saying there isn't a tendency/issue, just that it's overblown.