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On February 11 2023 06:47 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 06:44 mpmaley86 wrote:
Solar losses & Serral wins or Hero & Serral win for Serral to advance? Serral 2-0 auto qualifies Serral 2-1 qualifies unless Solar 2-0 DRG and Elazer winning by any amount makes DRG advance unless its 2-1 drg and 2-0 elazer in which case elazer qualifies
Even if Serral 2-1's and Solar 2-0's Serral still probably advances, since if Special loses he drops below Serral in map score.
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On February 11 2023 06:45 BluemoonSC wrote:
reminder:
hero 2-0 DRG
hero 2-0 solar
hero 2-1 elazer
hero 0-2 serral
serral's decision making and scouting won him both those games. y'all need to relax, it's been barely one tournament.
Viewed differently, serral lost to two players substantially worse than hero (drg and solar) who just so happened to play the same race as serral. Also telling people to calm down because "it been barely one tournament" is a pretty bad take. You can argue the game is balanced all you want, but historically if the game is imbalanced, the imbalance doesn't magically disappear as more tournaments are played on the same maps/patch. This isn't sc bw
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SoCal8910 Posts
On February 11 2023 06:48 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 06:43 royalroadweed wrote:
I wonder what herO practice games look like if he thinks colossus play is good vs roach viper. He was a few seconds too late. If that had hit a few seconds earlier, the abducts wouldn't be ready and he'd probably win the battle. As is, he lost one Colossus immediately and had to yoink the other back with his warp prism. He was also fighting uphill into a choke with Serral's roaches having a better arch. Slightly better positioning and hitting a few seconds earlier would have made that the killing blow he intended... Oh, and his Oracles got literally nothing done.
this was my read on the end of that game as well. serral's concave was ridiculous.
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Serral is probably the best ZvP player in the world. The balance patch and maps aren’t great but I don’t think it had much effect in this particular series.
Main problem now is Protoss can’t do well outside of Korea and half the good Protoss players are in the military. Hence why we probably have 2 Protoss in ro12 and maybe hero makes it to the top 4.
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On February 11 2023 06:51 dysenterymd wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 06:47 Cricketer12 wrote:On February 11 2023 06:44 mpmaley86 wrote:
Solar losses & Serral wins or Hero & Serral win for Serral to advance? Serral 2-0 auto qualifies Serral 2-1 qualifies unless Solar 2-0 DRG and Elazer winning by any amount makes DRG advance unless its 2-1 drg and 2-0 elazer in which case elazer qualifies Even if Serral 2-1's and Solar 2-0's Serral still probably advances, since if Special loses he drops below Serral in map score.
Ah true true forgot serral already 2-2 now
So drg needs to 2-0 and needs elazer to win 2-1. If both win 2-0 it's drg. If solar and elazer win by any margin solar is through. If serral wins 2-0 he's always through.
I think if serral solar win special is out unless he beats hero
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Having groups play out over two days is a cool change, but splitting it over three days is too much. Also the ro12 is on the same day as the last bo3 of the group stages, which means players won't have as much prep time for the ro12.
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Group D would be interesting, because they play last tomorrow, meaning they know the ranking from the other 3 groups. Say if Ragnarok beat Oliveira, Creator beat Reynor and somehow Special beat herO? I would rather be a 2nd in the group then 1st place
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On February 11 2023 06:51 dysenterymd wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 06:47 Cricketer12 wrote:On February 11 2023 06:44 mpmaley86 wrote:
Solar losses & Serral wins or Hero & Serral win for Serral to advance? Serral 2-0 auto qualifies Serral 2-1 qualifies unless Solar 2-0 DRG and Elazer winning by any amount makes DRG advance unless its 2-1 drg and 2-0 elazer in which case elazer qualifies Even if Serral 2-1's and Solar 2-0's Serral still probably advances, since if Special loses he drops below Serral in map score.
Honestly, Serral losing to Elazer is totally possible. Serral's ZvZ has been awful this tournament, and Elazer has shown he can get it done in knock-out games...
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On February 11 2023 06:51 Zaros wrote:
Serral is probably the best ZvP player in the world. The balance patch and maps aren’t great but I don’t think it had much effect in this particular series.
Main problem now is Protoss can’t do well outside of Korea and half the good Protoss players are in the military. Hence why we probably have 2 Protoss in ro12 and maybe hero makes it to the top 4.
Just because the units that were changed weren't used doesn't mean the changes didn't have an effect. The disruptor nerf + Hydra buff are very likely the reason herO feels forced into colossi play.
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On February 11 2023 06:51 Zaros wrote:
Serral is probably the best ZvP player in the world. The balance patch and maps aren’t great but I don’t think it had much effect in this particular series.
Main problem now is Protoss can’t do well outside of Korea and half the good Protoss players are in the military. Hence why we probably have 2 Protoss in ro12 and maybe hero makes it to the top 4.
and herO is the best PvZ player in the world
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On February 11 2023 07:03 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 06:51 Zaros wrote:
Serral is probably the best ZvP player in the world. The balance patch and maps aren’t great but I don’t think it had much effect in this particular series.
Main problem now is Protoss can’t do well outside of Korea and half the good Protoss players are in the military. Hence why we probably have 2 Protoss in ro12 and maybe hero makes it to the top 4. and herO is the best PvZ player in the world
Kinda moot point when the second-best PvZ player in the world is so far behind him that he could have lost to all the Z players in his group and STILL be leagues ahead of the rest...
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If I'm calculating correctly, Serral is guaranteed to advance if he wins, even with a 2-1: if Special loses, he has worse map score than Serral, if he wins 2-0, herO has worse map score. If Solar wins 2-0, Special 2-1, there's a 3-way tie between herO, Serral and Solar both on matches and map score. They're all 1-1 against each other but Serral has the better internal map score (3-2 vs. herO 2-2, Solar 2-3).
On the other hand, there still is a scenario where Serral loses 0-2, DRG wins 1-2 and Serral ends up in last place. In fact, the only way Serral loses and still advances is if he goes 1-2 and DRG wins 2-1
It's also possible that herO drops out if he loses 0-2, Serral wins and solar wins 2-0, the group is still completely open
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On February 11 2023 07:07 Zzzapper wrote:
If I'm calculating correctly, Serral is guaranteed to advance if he wins, even with a 2-1: if Special loses, he has worse map score than Serral, if he wins 2-0, herO has worse map score and if Solar wins 2-0, Special 2-1, there's a 3-way tie between herO, Serral and Solar both on matches and map score. They're all 1-1 against each other but Serral has the better internal map score (3-2 vs. herO 2-2, Solar 2-3).
On the other hand, there still is a scenario where Serral loses 0-2, DRG wins 1-2 and Serral ends up in last place. In fact, the only way Serral loses and still advances is if he goes 1-2 and DRG wins 2-1
It's also possible that herO drops out if he loses 0-2, Serral wins and solar wins 2-0, the group is still completely open
If Special wins 2-1 and Serral wins 2-1, then herO has a better map score. Solar winning 2-0 would then boot Serral out, right? They'd be tied on mapscore with Solar winning the h2h.
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On February 11 2023 07:06 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 07:03 Charoisaur wrote:On February 11 2023 06:51 Zaros wrote:
Serral is probably the best ZvP player in the world. The balance patch and maps aren’t great but I don’t think it had much effect in this particular series.
Main problem now is Protoss can’t do well outside of Korea and half the good Protoss players are in the military. Hence why we probably have 2 Protoss in ro12 and maybe hero makes it to the top 4. and herO is the best PvZ player in the world Kinda moot point when the second-best PvZ player in the world is so far behind him that he could have lost to all the Z players in his group and STILL be leagues ahead of the rest...
The state of Protoss is very depressing when you think about it, like who even is the second best Toss in the world? Lots of people would say MaxPax, but I'm not sure you can include someone who only plays online. Then you have Showtime, Creator, Zoun, and Astrea who have all made brilliant runs but never play great for more than two tournaments at a time.
Despite getting eliminated Classic is looking better, hope he continues to improve...
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On February 11 2023 06:56 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 06:51 dysenterymd wrote:On February 11 2023 06:47 Cricketer12 wrote:On February 11 2023 06:44 mpmaley86 wrote:
Solar losses & Serral wins or Hero & Serral win for Serral to advance? Serral 2-0 auto qualifies Serral 2-1 qualifies unless Solar 2-0 DRG and Elazer winning by any amount makes DRG advance unless its 2-1 drg and 2-0 elazer in which case elazer qualifies Even if Serral 2-1's and Solar 2-0's Serral still probably advances, since if Special loses he drops below Serral in map score. Honestly, Serral losing to Elazer is totally possible. Serral's ZvZ has been awful this tournament, and Elazer has shown he can get it done in knock-out games...
At this point, I'd say Serral's odds can't be much better than 50/50 against Elazer, who's actually been somewhat dangerous historically in ZVZ (i.e. taking out Dark, Reynor at times when they were monsters in the match-up).
This group is crazy with the amount of scenarios still in play.
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On February 11 2023 07:11 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 07:07 Zzzapper wrote:
If I'm calculating correctly, Serral is guaranteed to advance if he wins, even with a 2-1: if Special loses, he has worse map score than Serral, if he wins 2-0, herO has worse map score and if Solar wins 2-0, Special 2-1, there's a 3-way tie between herO, Serral and Solar both on matches and map score. They're all 1-1 against each other but Serral has the better internal map score (3-2 vs. herO 2-2, Solar 2-3).
On the other hand, there still is a scenario where Serral loses 0-2, DRG wins 1-2 and Serral ends up in last place. In fact, the only way Serral loses and still advances is if he goes 1-2 and DRG wins 2-1
It's also possible that herO drops out if he loses 0-2, Serral wins and solar wins 2-0, the group is still completely open If Special wins 2-1 and Serral wins 2-1, then herO has a better map score. Solar winning 2-0 would then boot Serral out, right? They'd be tied on mapscore with Solar winning the h2h.
Serral, herO and Solar would all have 7-5 map scores. So it goes to matches between them which are also tied, and finally to h2h map score which Serral wins on
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Just feels like the units of Protoss are too cost-inefficiënt, or have too big a drawback like slow high templar speed, colussus getting yoinked or being destroyed by more cost efficiënt air units. It's either surprise your opponent or be killed because the above. I'm a very mediocre player so just theory crafting from my side btw.
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So happy that Serral was able to clutch it out vs. herO. Hoping he rides that momentum into tomorrow. Some seriously good play in that series.
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On February 11 2023 07:15 Tyrrhus wrote:
Just feels like the units of Protoss are too cost-inefficiënt, or have too big a drawback like slow high templar speed, colussus getting yoinked or being destroyed by more cost efficiënt air units. It's either surprise your opponent or be killed because the above. I'm a very mediocre player so just theory crafting from my side btw.
Make big tough units: Get abducted and die.
Make lots of smaller, weaker units: Get a-moved by banes and die
In either case: Get distracted a moment, lose a mineral line to a half dozen banes, and die.
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On February 11 2023 07:14 Glorfindelio wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2023 06:56 Acrofales wrote:On February 11 2023 06:51 dysenterymd wrote:On February 11 2023 06:47 Cricketer12 wrote:On February 11 2023 06:44 mpmaley86 wrote:
Solar losses & Serral wins or Hero & Serral win for Serral to advance? Serral 2-0 auto qualifies Serral 2-1 qualifies unless Solar 2-0 DRG and Elazer winning by any amount makes DRG advance unless its 2-1 drg and 2-0 elazer in which case elazer qualifies Even if Serral 2-1's and Solar 2-0's Serral still probably advances, since if Special loses he drops below Serral in map score. Honestly, Serral losing to Elazer is totally possible. Serral's ZvZ has been awful this tournament, and Elazer has shown he can get it done in knock-out games... At this point, I'd say Serral's odds can't be much better than 50/50 against Elazer, who's actually been somewhat dangerous historically in ZVZ (i.e. taking out Dark, Reynor at times when they were monsters in the match-up). This group is crazy with the amount of scenarios still in play.
I'd never count Elazer out given the upsets he's pulled off in the past but he is 0-14 on maps in their last 7 matches, Granted, that goes back more than 2 years so it's probably not fair to read too much into it. Serral is also 26-4 in matches over their entire history though
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EPT
