EPT[DH] Summer 2014 Day 3 - Page 2
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DinosaurJones
United States1000 Posts
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Jer99
Canada8160 Posts
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Ramiz1989
12124 Posts
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intotheheart
Canada33091 Posts
I wanna see JD vs. MC. | ||
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geokilla
Canada8255 Posts
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ybjoony
Korea (South)15 Posts
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
Still, it would be great if you could win. | ||
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Xinzoe
Korea (South)2373 Posts
On June 16 2014 09:07 geokilla wrote: One Terran and one Zerg? David Kim messed up big time. Its funny cuz taeja will win anyway | ||
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ZigguratOfUr
Iraq16955 Posts
On June 16 2014 09:07 geokilla wrote: One Terran and one Zerg? David Kim messed up big time. Of course the racial balance of the round of 8 of one tournament is an accurate representation of the state of balance of the entire game. A week ago at HSC we had 5 Terrans, 2 Zergs and 1 Protoss in the round of 8. If you have a valid point about balance to make, make it (preferably in a balance thread) instead of dropping jabs at balance by citing factoids that mean nothing in of themselves to alleviate your frustration about the game's balance. | ||
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Ramiz1989
12124 Posts
On June 16 2014 09:25 Zambrah wrote: Jaedong, if you stomp TaeJa tomorrow, I will still love you just as much as I always do because Evil Geniuses and Jaedong are just two things that make me happy anyways. Still, it would be great if you could win. Jaedong is going to lose to Mana, what are you talking about? ROFL | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
Starts in + Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Patience in DreamHack Summer] + DreamHack Summer -   TaeJa is at ~ 99.65 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 54.69 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.91 %.~ 45.31 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.33 %.------------------------------------------------- -  Patience is at ~ 6.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 45.31 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.91 %.~ 54.69 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.45 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [MaNa, Jaedong in DreamHack Summer] + DreamHack Summer -  MaNa is at ~ 1.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 40.16 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.06 %.~ 59.84 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.54 %.------------------------------------------------- -  Jaedong is at ~ 60.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 59.84 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 68.66 %.~ 40.16 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 48.24 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [HerO, MC in DreamHack Summer] + DreamHack Summer - HerO is at ~ 9.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 45.79 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 12.46 %.~ 54.21 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.85 %.------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 54.21 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 45.79 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [First, San in DreamHack Summer] + DreamHack Summer - First is at ~ 23.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 47.08 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.79 %.~ 52.92 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.52 %.------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014~ 52.92 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 47.08 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %.Winning Chances + Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] + DreamHack Summer San has a ~ 18.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa has a ~ 17.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.65 % to ~ 99.99 % First has a ~ 13.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.53 % to ~ 30.43 % Jaedong has a ~ 12.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 60.46 % to ~ 92.21 % MC has a ~ 12.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience has a ~ 11.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.57 % to ~ 11.68 % HerO has a ~ 7.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.42 % to ~ 23.69 % MaNa has a ~ 5.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.74 % to ~ 3.03 %The players who would gain more than 10% chances by winning this tournament are Jaedong with a ~31.75% gain, and Hero with a ~14.27% gain. http://sc2.4ever.tv/ | ||
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On June 16 2014 09:51 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: So... how bout them protosses Nobody noticed until the ro16  | ||
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
Wasn't even THAT bad in the ro16, 9/16. but now we have 6/8 players being protoss. that's a little too much I think | ||
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User15937
68 Posts
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Jer99
Canada8160 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On June 16 2014 10:42 Jer99 wrote: I thought TaeJa would have more than a ~55% chance at winning vs Patience die4ever's site cushions aligulac ratings so that everyone's chances of winning are closer to 50%, not sure why. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On June 16 2014 10:57 The_Templar wrote: die4ever's site cushions aligulac ratings so that everyone's chances of winning are closer to 50%, not sure why. it works better for long term predictions, partly because it gives lesser players a better resolution of samples to see when they qualify, and also player skill changes over time, and with this simulating all tournaments for the year it should be more conservative accounting for the possibility of players getting better or worse | ||
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Stress
United States980 Posts
On June 16 2014 09:39 ZigguratOfUr wrote: Of course the racial balance of the round of 8 of one tournament is an accurate representation of the state of balance of the entire game. A week ago at HSC we had 5 Terrans, 2 Zergs and 1 Protoss in the round of 8. If you have a valid point about balance to make, make it (preferably in a balance thread) instead of dropping jabs at balance by citing factoids that mean nothing in of themselves to alleviate your frustration about the game's balance. If you look at the players who made it to the RO16 the only surprising player(s) to advance to the RO8 is Mana and perhaps Hero. Its not so much a matter of race but the players that made it through and the opponents they happened to face. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On June 16 2014 11:03 Stress wrote: If you look at the players who made it to the RO16 the only surprising player(s) to advance to the RO8 is Mana and perhaps Hero. Its not so much a matter of race but the players that made it through and the opponents they happened to face. HerO has been narrowly squeaking by with very dirty and sloppy comebacks in both group stage 3 and the ro16. At this rate, he'll lose 3-0 to TaeJa (who doesn't mess around when about to win) in the finals edit: forgot that this was dreamhack | ||
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