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[GSL] August Code S Group Selections - Page 99

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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Applesmack
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada680 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-02 04:29:58
August 02 2011 04:23 GMT
#1961
On August 02 2011 13:22 alcaras wrote:
I was curious who had the best chance at winning GSL August, so I wrote a little script to simulate the entire tournament, using the approach described here: Dreamhack [E-Sports Prospectus] (Basically: take each player's ELO and ELO vs. appropriate races from TLPD - SC2 Korea - Player Index and simulate groups, then the various RoX through to the finals).

After 10,000,000 simulations, here's the group stage (the numbers are % likelihood of obtaining that position):
http://i.imgur.com/cf1Ig.png

And here's the tournament:
http://i.imgur.com/zLDnB.png

I've posted the source here:
https://github.com/alcaras/sc2pe/blob/master/sc2pe.py


Pretty cool. Just about all my predictions match it lol. Though I think the tournament park is kinda BS. I would say MC has a higher chance than 1.6% to win this GSL.... Definately higher than bomber. Bomber overrated.
Heavenly
Profile Joined January 2011
2172 Posts
August 02 2011 05:37 GMT
#1962
Well, let's see what MC has cooked up against the 1-1-1 all-in.
"thx for all my fans i'm many lost but cheer for me .. i lost but so happy my power is fans i will good play this is promise my fans" - oGsMC
Ansinjunger
Profile Joined November 2010
United States2451 Posts
August 02 2011 05:56 GMT
#1963
On August 02 2011 11:49 Goldfish wrote:
If MC and MVP is in the same group, will it be possible for them to meet up in the finals or will they meet up the in semis first?


People in group stages are unable to meet again 'til the finals.
WR4TH
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States72 Posts
August 02 2011 06:17 GMT
#1964
Can't wait for the Games to begin. MMA Vs. Nestea should be a great game.
KimJongChill
Profile Joined January 2011
United States6429 Posts
August 02 2011 06:26 GMT
#1965
On August 02 2011 13:22 alcaras wrote:
I was curious who had the best chance at winning GSL August, so I wrote a little script to simulate the entire tournament, using the approach described here: Dreamhack [E-Sports Prospectus] (Basically: take each player's ELO and ELO vs. appropriate races from TLPD - SC2 Korea - Player Index and simulate groups, then the various RoX through to the finals).

After 10,000,000 simulations, here's the group stage (the numbers are % likelihood of obtaining that position):
http://i.imgur.com/cf1Ig.png

And here's the tournament:
http://i.imgur.com/zLDnB.png

I've posted the source here:
https://github.com/alcaras/sc2pe/blob/master/sc2pe.py

Now let's see just how off these predicitons will be, since we always seen to have upsets x.x
MMA: U realise MMA: Most of my army EgIdra: fuck off MMA: Killed my orbital MMA: LOL MMA: just saying MMA: u werent loss
FinestHour
Profile Joined August 2010
United States18466 Posts
August 02 2011 06:29 GMT
#1966
MC is always so entertaining to watch, such a personality
thug life.                                                       MVP/ex-
SolidMustard
Profile Joined May 2011
France1515 Posts
August 02 2011 07:39 GMT
#1967
On August 02 2011 13:22 alcaras wrote:
I was curious who had the best chance at winning GSL August, so I wrote a little script to simulate the entire tournament, using the approach described here: Dreamhack [E-Sports Prospectus] (Basically: take each player's ELO and ELO vs. appropriate races from TLPD - SC2 Korea - Player Index and simulate groups, then the various RoX through to the finals).

After 10,000,000 simulations, here's the group stage (the numbers are % likelihood of obtaining that position):
http://i.imgur.com/cf1Ig.png

And here's the tournament:
http://i.imgur.com/zLDnB.png

I've posted the source here:
https://github.com/alcaras/sc2pe/blob/master/sc2pe.py



Lol at the tournament probabilities, look just a bit exagerated as far as Nestea's probability to win is concerned !
tuho12345
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
4482 Posts
August 02 2011 07:44 GMT
#1968
On August 02 2011 14:37 Heavenly wrote:
Well, let's see what MC has cooked up against the 1-1-1 all-in.

afaik MVP doesn't do 1/1/1. And Polt beat MC with 2 raxes where MC going 1 gates expand. So MC's chance to figure out how to beat 1/1/1 isn't small since oGs Terrans are pretty solid
HolyArrow
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7116 Posts
August 02 2011 07:55 GMT
#1969
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?
tuho12345
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
4482 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-02 08:01:09
August 02 2011 08:00 GMT
#1970
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.
HolyArrow
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7116 Posts
August 02 2011 08:38 GMT
#1971
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.
gengka
Profile Joined September 2010
Malaysia461 Posts
August 02 2011 08:44 GMT
#1972
On August 02 2011 17:38 HolyArrow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.


1-1-1 is not unbeatable. the key is to be able to scout and find out early that he is doing 1-1-1. Early Pressure like 3 or 4 gates, blink stalker rush or fast HT can defeat the build since it has one of the weakest openings (just marines)
Make Love Not War
HolyArrow
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7116 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-02 08:52:00
August 02 2011 08:49 GMT
#1973
On August 02 2011 17:44 gengka wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 17:38 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.


1-1-1 is not unbeatable. the key is to be able to scout and find out early that he is doing 1-1-1. Early Pressure like 3 or 4 gates, blink stalker rush or fast HT can defeat the build since it has one of the weakest openings (just marines)


I never said it was unbeatable. My point is to mention that no consistent solution has been found. You make it sound so simple and easy to deal with, but it doesn't change the fact that we saw Inca, Tassadar, and anyPro get 1-1-1'd into oblivion in the Up/Downs, we saw MC fall to it when Bomber did it, and IIRC (I may be wrong about this one) Ganzi did it to HuK at MLG Anaheim. We've seen Genius fall to it from Rain a good while back. Puzzle died to it on his stream recently. It's definitely not unbeatable but it's definitely really hard to hold off, which is why I say that no consistent solution has been found for it, which leads me to believe that any T that can effectively execute a good 1-1-1 stands a pretty good chance to beat even the stronger Toss players like MC or Puzzle.
gengka
Profile Joined September 2010
Malaysia461 Posts
August 02 2011 09:02 GMT
#1974
On August 02 2011 17:49 HolyArrow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 17:44 gengka wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:38 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.


1-1-1 is not unbeatable. the key is to be able to scout and find out early that he is doing 1-1-1. Early Pressure like 3 or 4 gates, blink stalker rush or fast HT can defeat the build since it has one of the weakest openings (just marines)


I never said it was unbeatable. My point is to mention that no consistent solution has been found. You make it sound so simple and easy to deal with, but it doesn't change the fact that we saw Inca, Tassadar, and anyPro get 1-1-1'd into oblivion in the Up/Downs, we saw MC fall to it when Bomber did it, and IIRC (I may be wrong about this one) Ganzi did it to HuK at MLG Anaheim. We've seen Genius fall to it from Rain a good while back. Puzzle died to it on his stream recently. It's definitely not unbeatable but it's definitely really hard to hold off, which is why I say that no consistent solution has been found for it.


alrite i have to agree with you that its hard to hold off the 1-1-1 timing push. However i would like to bring out the fact that its hard if you are turtling or playing FE. I am actually a terran myself and i have a high win rate against protoss who plays FE without proper scouting. However terran players themselves is also taking a great risk against early pressure/push aggressive play by protoss if they decide to do 1-1-1. Early blink stalkers especially, when they can blink into ur base ignoring ur early wall in, n also targetting down your early banshee easily.
Make Love Not War
JKira
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Canada1002 Posts
August 02 2011 09:26 GMT
#1975
On August 02 2011 18:02 gengka wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 17:49 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:44 gengka wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:38 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.


1-1-1 is not unbeatable. the key is to be able to scout and find out early that he is doing 1-1-1. Early Pressure like 3 or 4 gates, blink stalker rush or fast HT can defeat the build since it has one of the weakest openings (just marines)


I never said it was unbeatable. My point is to mention that no consistent solution has been found. You make it sound so simple and easy to deal with, but it doesn't change the fact that we saw Inca, Tassadar, and anyPro get 1-1-1'd into oblivion in the Up/Downs, we saw MC fall to it when Bomber did it, and IIRC (I may be wrong about this one) Ganzi did it to HuK at MLG Anaheim. We've seen Genius fall to it from Rain a good while back. Puzzle died to it on his stream recently. It's definitely not unbeatable but it's definitely really hard to hold off, which is why I say that no consistent solution has been found for it.


alrite i have to agree with you that its hard to hold off the 1-1-1 timing push. However i would like to bring out the fact that its hard if you are turtling or playing FE. I am actually a terran myself and i have a high win rate against protoss who plays FE without proper scouting. However terran players themselves is also taking a great risk against early pressure/push aggressive play by protoss if they decide to do 1-1-1. Early blink stalkers especially, when they can blink into ur base ignoring ur early wall in, n also targetting down your early banshee easily.


So you're saying the way to beat the 1-1-1 allin is to do a faster allin? :p
charcute
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Canada419 Posts
August 02 2011 09:29 GMT
#1976
2 gates mass units and immortals rush kills 1-1-1 so easely
I like to do it all night long
Amui
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada10567 Posts
August 02 2011 09:31 GMT
#1977
On August 02 2011 18:02 gengka wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 17:49 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:44 gengka wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:38 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.


1-1-1 is not unbeatable. the key is to be able to scout and find out early that he is doing 1-1-1. Early Pressure like 3 or 4 gates, blink stalker rush or fast HT can defeat the build since it has one of the weakest openings (just marines)


I never said it was unbeatable. My point is to mention that no consistent solution has been found. You make it sound so simple and easy to deal with, but it doesn't change the fact that we saw Inca, Tassadar, and anyPro get 1-1-1'd into oblivion in the Up/Downs, we saw MC fall to it when Bomber did it, and IIRC (I may be wrong about this one) Ganzi did it to HuK at MLG Anaheim. We've seen Genius fall to it from Rain a good while back. Puzzle died to it on his stream recently. It's definitely not unbeatable but it's definitely really hard to hold off, which is why I say that no consistent solution has been found for it.


alrite i have to agree with you that its hard to hold off the 1-1-1 timing push. However i would like to bring out the fact that its hard if you are turtling or playing FE. I am actually a terran myself and i have a high win rate against protoss who plays FE without proper scouting. However terran players themselves is also taking a great risk against early pressure/push aggressive play by protoss if they decide to do 1-1-1. Early blink stalkers especially, when they can blink into ur base ignoring ur early wall in, n also targetting down your early banshee easily.


Protoss lose to this often WITH proper scouting(1/2gate into robo + expo with fairly fast obs.)
Blink is an all-in if gotten on one base v T. Also if the Terran sees an all-in coming, and is prepared, a single bunker(standard) can hold an amazing amount of pressure unless it's blink.
Porouscloud - NA LoL
roymarthyup
Profile Joined April 2010
1442 Posts
August 02 2011 09:36 GMT
#1978
blink stalkers (off 1base or 2base) is very bad against 1-1-1

tanks that are out of siegemode pwn stalkers so bad. banshees+marines are good against stalkers. toss massing blink stalkers cannot have more than 2-3 sentries for guardian shield (which is needed against the marines) and the terran can easily snipe the 2-3 sentries to stop guardian shield and there wont be enuff forcefields to stop the marines then


i have a top10 master player do 1-1-1 against me alot until i found a reasonable counter. 2gate expo + low sentry count into fast robo works nicely, pump out nonstop stalkers earlygame and poke-poke-poke his ramp with stalkers and if you see no marauders or expo by 5:30 minutes that means 1-1-1 is coming you get out 1-2 immortals in time, and you have healthy amounts of zeal/stalker+3-4 sentries to guardian shield enough and beat back the push

at 5:30 minutes if you decide 1-1-1 is coming you build your robo, otherwise if you see marauders you make a third gate at 5:30 (zealots+forcefields is good against stim. immortals not so much)
gengka
Profile Joined September 2010
Malaysia461 Posts
August 02 2011 09:40 GMT
#1979
On August 02 2011 18:26 JKira wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 18:02 gengka wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:49 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:44 gengka wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:38 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.


1-1-1 is not unbeatable. the key is to be able to scout and find out early that he is doing 1-1-1. Early Pressure like 3 or 4 gates, blink stalker rush or fast HT can defeat the build since it has one of the weakest openings (just marines)


I never said it was unbeatable. My point is to mention that no consistent solution has been found. You make it sound so simple and easy to deal with, but it doesn't change the fact that we saw Inca, Tassadar, and anyPro get 1-1-1'd into oblivion in the Up/Downs, we saw MC fall to it when Bomber did it, and IIRC (I may be wrong about this one) Ganzi did it to HuK at MLG Anaheim. We've seen Genius fall to it from Rain a good while back. Puzzle died to it on his stream recently. It's definitely not unbeatable but it's definitely really hard to hold off, which is why I say that no consistent solution has been found for it.


alrite i have to agree with you that its hard to hold off the 1-1-1 timing push. However i would like to bring out the fact that its hard if you are turtling or playing FE. I am actually a terran myself and i have a high win rate against protoss who plays FE without proper scouting. However terran players themselves is also taking a great risk against early pressure/push aggressive play by protoss if they decide to do 1-1-1. Early blink stalkers especially, when they can blink into ur base ignoring ur early wall in, n also targetting down your early banshee easily.


So you're saying the way to beat the 1-1-1 allin is to do a faster allin? :p


its not necessary an all in. but an early pressure/observer play into expansion is better than you do some greedy FE build to hold off 1-1-1. At least u need to be able to defend or preferably kill the first cloacked/uncloacked banshee then it will make life alot harder for the terran.
Make Love Not War
roymarthyup
Profile Joined April 2010
1442 Posts
August 02 2011 09:42 GMT
#1980
On August 02 2011 18:40 gengka wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2011 18:26 JKira wrote:
On August 02 2011 18:02 gengka wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:49 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:44 gengka wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:38 HolyArrow wrote:
On August 02 2011 17:00 tuho12345 wrote:
On August 02 2011 16:55 HolyArrow wrote:
The funny thing is that people assume MC will be able to figure out a consistent counter to the 1-1-1 all-in. It's been around for ages and no Protoss seems to have a consistent answer yet. Why would MC figure something out at such an arbitrary time when the all-in has still been effective for so long?

Well b/c he's MC. The Protoss President. Who has revolutionize the Protoss's play style back in the day he won GSL with 6 gates timing attack, show ppl how to use FFs, Stargates phoenix opening vs both Zerg and terran. If anyone has changed and helped protoss the most, that's must be MC.


Oh, I definitely agree that MC has been the hero of Protoss and seems to have pioneered so many different things for Toss. But that doesn't change the fact that the 1-1-1 all-in has been so effective for so long, thus my doubt that MC will find a way to consistently deal with it in less than a week. But I'd love to be proven wrong, since I'm tired of seeing it work so much.


1-1-1 is not unbeatable. the key is to be able to scout and find out early that he is doing 1-1-1. Early Pressure like 3 or 4 gates, blink stalker rush or fast HT can defeat the build since it has one of the weakest openings (just marines)


I never said it was unbeatable. My point is to mention that no consistent solution has been found. You make it sound so simple and easy to deal with, but it doesn't change the fact that we saw Inca, Tassadar, and anyPro get 1-1-1'd into oblivion in the Up/Downs, we saw MC fall to it when Bomber did it, and IIRC (I may be wrong about this one) Ganzi did it to HuK at MLG Anaheim. We've seen Genius fall to it from Rain a good while back. Puzzle died to it on his stream recently. It's definitely not unbeatable but it's definitely really hard to hold off, which is why I say that no consistent solution has been found for it.


alrite i have to agree with you that its hard to hold off the 1-1-1 timing push. However i would like to bring out the fact that its hard if you are turtling or playing FE. I am actually a terran myself and i have a high win rate against protoss who plays FE without proper scouting. However terran players themselves is also taking a great risk against early pressure/push aggressive play by protoss if they decide to do 1-1-1. Early blink stalkers especially, when they can blink into ur base ignoring ur early wall in, n also targetting down your early banshee easily.


So you're saying the way to beat the 1-1-1 allin is to do a faster allin? :p


its not necessary an all in. but an early pressure/observer play into expansion is better than you do some greedy FE build to hold off 1-1-1. At least u need to be able to defend or preferably kill the first cloacked/uncloacked banshee then it will make life alot harder for the terran.


opening blink stalker is horrible against terran. even if the terran is going 1-1-1. getting a robo too? suicide
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