| Forum Index > Polls & Liquibet |
|
BPCoffee
27 Posts
On July 01 2010 06:53 Mortality wrote: TLnet is ridiculously fickle. One month ago Flash was being called God, placed above the bonjwas (lol?) and now he's not even the top Terran?  Even as a bonjwa (hypothetical), losing 5 ZvZ is perfectly acceptable if you take in account the nature of the matchup. Losing 5 TvT is not. | ||
|
Nick_54
United States2230 Posts
On July 01 2010 06:53 Mortality wrote: LOL? I love Fantasy, but what's this shit I'm seeing? Flash just made both SL finals at the same time and Fantasy is being proclaimed better just for producing better results in the past 10 games? TLnet is ridiculously fickle. One month ago Flash was being called God, placed above the bonjwas (lol?) and now he's not even the top Terran? People say Jaedong should by higher based on his last 10 or 20 games... | ||
|
DreaM)XeRO
Korea (South)4667 Posts
On July 01 2010 06:21 Ideas wrote: I think my PR would probably look like this: jaedong flash fantasy sea free bisu leta great stats forgg wow bisu too high . winning an ace and going 4-0 against scrubs is NOT that high eh.. fantasy might be too high imo.. 3rd seems.. extreme i dunno if forgg should be there O___O | ||
|
De4ngus
United States6533 Posts
On July 01 2010 06:53 Mortality wrote: LOL? I love Fantasy, but what's this shit I'm seeing? Flash just made both SL finals at the same time and Fantasy is being proclaimed better just for producing better results in the past 10 games? TLnet is ridiculously fickle. One month ago Flash was being called God, placed above the bonjwas (lol?) and now he's not even the top Terran? Above the bonjwas uhhh what? Which crazy Flash fanboy said that one? And no one is arguing that he isn't the top terran at the moment. People are just pointing out his negative record for the month. Also, he keeps making weird "wtf" faces when he loses, lol. | ||
|
Mortality
United States4790 Posts
On July 01 2010 07:04 BPCoffee wrote: Even as a bonjwa (hypothetical), losing 5 ZvZ is perfectly acceptable if you take in account the nature of the matchup. Losing 5 TvT is not. You act like he lost 5 in a row vs scrubs. As it stands, he's 2-3 in his last 5, 5-5 in his last 10. His opponents weren't all TvT giants, but they weren't scrubs either. The weakest was Ruby, who's not a bad player. Now, Math time. Flash's TvT win percentage is 72% lifetime. Let's imagine for a second that this means Flash is slated to win 72% against any arbitrary opponent he faces. Assuming that winning/losing is an iid random variable defined in this manner, then there's an 11% chance that Flash will go 2-3 in a 5 game stretch, and an 8% chance of going 5-5 in a 10 game stretch. In other words, statistically speaking, it's not unlikely. Furthermore, let's do a quick comparison against a bonefied bonjwa. At the time NaDa gold grand slammed, he had a 74.5% win record against fellow Terrans, better than either Boxer or Oov could boast. NaDa's worst TvT loss streak at that time? 6 games. That's not 6 games out of 12, that's 6 in a row. You're holding standards that are much too high. A few hiccups are okay even for a bonjwa. On July 01 2010 07:07 Nick_54 wrote: People say Jaedong should by higher based on his last 10 or 20 games... When did I mention Jaedong? Let me reiterate verbatim what I said: "...and now he's not even the top Terran?" So if I am understanding you correctly, you mean to tell me that Jaedong has switched races and is now a Terran player? I think a lot of Zerg fans will be disappointed to have lost their star. On July 01 2010 08:01 De4ngus wrote: Above the bonjwas uhhh what? Which crazy Flash fanboy said that one? And no one is arguing that he isn't the top terran at the moment. People are just pointing out his negative record for the month. Also, he keeps making weird "wtf" faces when he loses, lol. For posts regarding Flash being greatest of all time, see the comments in this thread made at the beginning of the month. First 10 pages or so. For comments that Flash isn't the top Terran right now, you need only go back 2 pages, where TLnetter setzer said: "As of this month I think a case can be made that Flash is not even the best terran, as Fantasy has certainly shown he has gotten back to form, beating some very good players and qualifying for both starleagues." | ||
|
setzer
United States3284 Posts
On July 01 2010 08:29 Mortality wrote: You act like he lost 5 in a row vs scrubs. As it stands, he's 2-3 in his last 5, 5-5 in his last 10. His opponents weren't all TvT giants, but they weren't scrubs either. The weakest was Ruby, who's not a bad player. Now, Math time. Flash's TvT win percentage is 72% lifetime. Let's imagine for a second that this means Flash is slated to win 72% against any arbitrary opponent he faces. Assuming that winning/losing is an iid random variable defined in this manner, then there's an 11% chance that Flash will go 2-3 in a 5 game stretch, and an 8% chance of going 5-5 in a 10 game stretch. In other words, statistically speaking, it's not unlikely. Furthermore, let's do a quick comparison against a bonefied bonjwa. At the time NaDa gold grand slammed, he had a 74.5% win record against fellow Terrans, better than either Boxer or Oov could boast. NaDa's worst TvT loss streak at that time? 6 games. That's not 6 games out of 12, that's 6 in a row. You're holding standards that are much too high. A few hiccups are okay even for a bonjwa. When did I mention Jaedong? Let me reiterate verbatim what I said: "...and now he's not even the top Terran?" So if I am understanding you correctly, you mean to tell me that Jaedong has switched races and is now a Terran player? I think a lot of Zerg fans will be disappointed to have lost their star. For posts regarding Flash being greatest of all time, see the comments in this thread made at the beginning of the month. First 10 pages or so. For comments that Flash isn't the top Terran right now, you need only go back 2 pages, where TLnetter setzer said: "As of this month I think a case can be made that Flash is not even the best terran, as Fantasy has certainly shown he has gotten back to form, beating some very good players and qualifying for both starleagues." Perhaps the wording was a bit awkward, I was merely saying, judging the records and performances of Flash and Fantasy, an argument can be made that Fantasy should be placed higher than Flash on this month's power rank. That has nothing to do with who is actually the best terran, or who I think is the best terran, it is just a reflection on the performance for this month. For any other progamer going 5-6 and losing five ace matches in the course of one month would likely take them off the list or, at worse, drop them to the very bottom. Some people are even removing Effort entirely from next month's power rank because he, like Flash, is not playing up to his level. That is clearly a testament to how good Flash has been over the last 6 months. But alas, if the power rank was about the top 10 progamers, and not the top 10 performers, Flash and Jaedong would never leave #1 and #2. That is why I do not think Flash is anywhere near as deserving of #1 as some people want to say he is. | ||
|
Nick_54
United States2230 Posts
So why can't on the basis of the last 10 games (this months results) Fantasy be put higher, I mean Flash can't even win half of his games and has gone 0-5 in ace games. Jaedong can be put higher but Fantasy can't? Jaedong went 6-1 this month Fantasy went 10-2. I'm not even saying I agree with this viewpoint, but both Fantasy and Jaedong played really well and Flash did so mediocre that I wouldn't object to both being put higher than Flash because of the lack of starleague results so far. | ||
|
Ideas
United States8091 Posts
On July 01 2010 07:22 DreaM)XeRO wrote: wow bisu too high . winning an ace and going 4-0 against scrubs is NOT that high eh.. fantasy might be too high imo.. 3rd seems.. extreme i dunno if forgg should be there O___O 7-2 on TV and qualified for his OSL group undefeated. that plus 6 of his games were in leagues and he went 2-0 and 4-0 in those, something a lot of players have problems doing. fantasy too high? maybe, but who else played better this month? | ||
|
WWJDD
India342 Posts
| ||
]343[
United States10328 Posts
On July 01 2010 10:16 Nick_54 wrote: Mortality, you claim that it is ridiculous to put fantasy above flash simply based on his last ten games. However, Fantasy has had the best month of anyone bar Jaedong. People are saying that based on June's results Jaedong should rank higher because of his great month and Flash's mediocre month. So why can't on the basis of the last 10 games (this months results) Fantasy be put higher, I mean Flash can't even win half of his games and has gone 0-5 in ace games. Jaedong can be put higher but Fantasy can't? Jaedong went 6-1 this month Fantasy went 10-2. I'm not even saying I agree with this viewpoint, but both Fantasy and Jaedong played really well and Flash did so mediocre that I wouldn't object to both being put higher than Flash because of the lack of starleague results so far. the problem is, fantasy's opponents haven't been all that strong. W effort: yay! (good at ZvT) W action light: ok good (action is good at ZvT; light is not so good at TvT though...) W roro yellow: ok W grape x2, brave x2, puma: lol? L snow: acceptable (he is really really good at PvT) L soulkey: kind of acceptable (up-and-coming) I agree flash's record isn't so pretty, and maybe he should be #2 (L hiya, baby, skyhigh, really are probably 4 of the top 8 TvT along with flash himself, fantasy, leta, and sea. L free - free is pretty good at PvT. L ruby is x.x, though ruby sometimes pulls great games.) W backho (ha), midas (pretty good TvT, right below that top tier), kal, really. having a losing record isn't so great, but he's played much better opponents overall than fantasy has. and dual finals last TWO seasons? the only person who flash should ever be placed under, unless this slump continues at least a whole starleague season or two, is jaedong. | ||
|
Mortality
United States4790 Posts
On July 01 2010 10:16 Nick_54 wrote: Mortality, you claim that it is ridiculous to put fantasy above flash simply based on his last ten games. However, Fantasy has had the best month of anyone bar Jaedong. People are saying that based on June's results Jaedong should rank higher because of his great month and Flash's mediocre month. Because Power Rank IS NOT about who had the best score in their last 10 games or any such shit. Power Rank isn't just a monthly ranking; it's about who is the strongest right now. It prioritizes recent results because it tries to be up to the minute, whereas KeSPA and ELO rankings rely heavily on past data, hence why the current month counts most. If you just want who produced the best results this month, go open up TLPD and after 20 minutes of digging you'll have a pretty good idea. Power Rank is another ranking of "who is strongest." But it serves a different purpose than KeSPA ranking or ELO ranking. KeSPA ranking essentially tells you who has produced the best tournament record in recent history. ELO ranking tells you who's had the hottest streak in recent memory. Power Rank factors in subjective criteria. Consider the following 4 players: Light, Shine, Horang2, and Movie in a tournament situation, single elimination, bo5's. If Light plays Shine and Horang2 plays Movie, then the expected result would be Light > Shine, Horang2 > Movie. Then you have Light vs Horang2 in the "finals." But what if it was Light vs Movie, Shine vs Horang2? Now we would expect Movie > Light and Shine > Horang2, for a Movie vs Shine finals. So just because a player gets better results doesn't mean that he's better. SC metagame changes constantly. Even with things having stabilized so heavily over the past few years (compared to the relatively chaotic "metagame" of even just 4 or 5 years ago), a player can one day be stomping on opponents left and right and the very next day get crushed by a no name. Power Rank deals with this; KeSPA and ELO rankings don't. For example, you'll notice that Kwanro is very highly ranked both in ELO and by KeSPA right now, but nobody's talking about putting him on the PR. Same with Calm and same with Zero. So why can't on the basis of the last 10 games (this months results) Fantasy be put higher, I mean Flash can't even win half of his games and has gone 0-5 in ace games. Jaedong can be put higher but Fantasy can't? Jaedong went 6-1 this month Fantasy went 10-2. I'm not even saying I agree with this viewpoint, but both Fantasy and Jaedong played really well and Flash did so mediocre that I wouldn't object to both being put higher than Flash because of the lack of starleague results so far. It's true that this month has been eye-opening: Flash's TvT isn't the unstoppable force that it once was. But if he played a bo5 against anyone, would you expect him to lose? Maybe against SkyHigh. What about TvZ or TvP? Do you think that Fantasy is as strong as Flash in any match-up? So why can Jaedong be put higher? If your life was literally on the line and you had to pick a progamer to play a bo5 for you and whether he wins or loses determines whether you live or die, who would you trust most to do it? Last month Flash seemed to be the biggest bully on the block, but whereas Flash has had shaky TvT results recently, Jaedong has been destroying everyone who isn't Flash. | ||
|
Nick_54
United States2230 Posts
| ||
|
o[twist]
United States4903 Posts
On July 01 2010 15:17 Nick_54 wrote: Just out of curiosity I want to know who everyone thinks is playing better this month Jaedong or Fantasy and by what margin. jaedong by a margin the size of reach's erect shlong and baby needs to be on, not sure why cats are forgetting him | ||
|
InFdude
Bulgaria619 Posts
| ||
|
J1.au
Australia3596 Posts
On July 01 2010 16:23 InFdude wrote: Ok Morality you go on and put your life on the line in a Bo5 say Flash vs SkyHigh .So if SkyHigh wins he is number 1 ? Ofc no . I don't see how any protoss can take more that 1 game off Jaedong in a Bo5 and he has been doing great in ZvZ . His ZvT isn't all that great but there are just a few terrans that can be a problem .Flash on the other hand has some serious problem with TvT and I can name 2-3 tosses who may beat him in a Bo5 ATM. Flash has won his last FOUR (Free, Pure, Movie, Best) BO5's against Protoss. In those FOUR, he dropped ONE game. So please name these 2-3 tosses who can beat Flash in a BO5. | ||
|
InFdude
Bulgaria619 Posts
| ||
|
hitthat
Poland2267 Posts
| ||
|
Vasoline73
United States7801 Posts
| ||
|
Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
| ||
|
Elroi
Sweden5595 Posts
| ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Stormgate Dota 2 League of Legends Counter-Strike Heroes of the Storm Other Games |
|
CranKy Ducklings
Epic.LAN
CSO Contender
Sparkling Tuna Cup
Online Event
Esports World Cup
ByuN vs Astrea
Lambo vs HeRoMaRinE
Clem vs TBD
Solar vs Zoun
SHIN vs Reynor
Maru vs TriGGeR
herO vs Lancer
Cure vs ShoWTimE
Esports World Cup
Esports World Cup
Esports World Cup
|
|
|
EPT
