Group A: MVP.DongRaeGu, CreatorPrime, AX.Ryung, ST_Curious

MVP.DongRaeGu

At some point I find myself slightly exhausted of things to say about DRG. There are two main reasons: the first being that I sustain daily and persistent exposure to fanatical DRG fanboys. The other is that he has been almost ever-present these last few months, making the round of sixteen in last season’s Code S, making the finals of the inaugural SC2 OSL and now again making it through the first group stage of this season’s Code S. This seems remarkably strong for a player who has famously been 'slumping' ever since winning MLG Spring Championship.

There are two things that should be made very clear here. It is silly to persist in talking about a slump. There is no data to back this up. DRG continues his existence as a permanent fixture of Code S, he was almost crowned an OSL winner and he just swept his group to make it to another round of sixteen... However, what has happened is that he has adapted to both the requirements of the GSL format and to the demands of being a championship level StarCraft player with a huge fan base. He might not look as brilliant, as decidedly dominant as he did, but the game has changed, both in itself and for DRG. He has transitioned from being a player capable of beating everyone for multiple games in a row across all matchups to becoming more stable and more clinical, though he might sparkle less.

His group has all matchups covered, which is not ideal but should likewise to play to his inherent strengths to a larger degree than most others. It seems doubtful he has any reservations against facing Protoss, picking Creator first not only a signal in terms of liking the particular opponent but also a clear message that the myth of DRG being the weakest against Aiur’s chosen should be laid to rest. Likewise, against Terran he is again looking dominant. While Mvp might be in another bear period of his StarCraft cycle, he put up a reasonable fight against the ‘best Zerg in the world’ but was absolutely demolished by DRG. And while there will be ample time to compare and contrast DRG and Life later, suffice to say it would be very surprising to see either go out to a Terran this season. Finally there is the ZvZ; historically a strong point of DRG’s though recently becoming a slight liability. The problem with a strict interpretation of recent matches is that they came during a period of extreme stress, the OSL finals clearly were important to the MVP Zerg, thus the loss to RorO looked strange in terms of how it played out. With less pressure and more focus available for Code S, it seems likely that former peaks can be regained.

CreatorPrime

Creator has been a strange figure in the Korean StarCraft scene for some time. When he first was unveiled for the world to see, he looked like one of the most exciting Protoss players we had seen. However, his initial attraction faded abruptly as new flavors of the month were introduced. He then went on to dominate in team and online leagues, but that too has faded to some extent even if remaining Prime’s best team player by a significant degree.

But what was puzzling indeed were the months during the finals stages of TSL4 leading into WCS Korea and culminating in last seasons Up and Downs. It almost seemed obvious that Creator was one of the best players in the world. And that is not in the same sense that the top 25 are some of the best players in the world; he looked like the best Protoss by far and a real contender for top three at least. However, after winning WCS Korea he was back to his old ways of underperforming in individual leagues, failing to make Code S last season. Now he has finally made it to the stage where a round of eight is a real possibility, quite a few seasons after it would have been predicted based on his prodigious skill.

So, given that his results have been following a strange curve, it is interesting to notice that his individual matchups have looked much the same. He initially became known for his PvT play, almost standardizing the colossus double forge opener. As his prowess in that area evened out, his PvZ started to look like the best in the world. However, lately he has looked more lost than ever there, struggling like so many of his Protoss brethren to find an adequate answer to the prevailing Zerg late game tactics. But just as another matchup rose then declined, he has also showcased that his PvP can look absolutely dominant, his WCS Korea run a testament to its superlative strength.

DongRaeGu vs. Creator

Both players have been thought to be the best player in the world at some point. DRG for much of early 2012, Creator very briefly in the recent past. A few months ago I would have been hard pressed to predict anything but a Creator victory, but the situation is now that DRG not only crushed Creator in the previous round, he picked him as the first player in the entire pool to face in this round. DRG seems to have evolved his ZvP to be less predictable, with aggressive openers more prevalent and mutalisk play always a possibility. Meanwhile, Creator seems to be stuck making impossible choices between two and three base all-ins, not trusting what once looked like a dominant super late game. In the end it is very difficult to see how Creator will take two maps off DRG.


AX.Ryung

As we have had time to process and come to terms with the collapse of SlayerS, it is good to see that some players have not only found new teams, but that rather a lot of them are finding success in their post-Purgatory lives.

For Ryung however, that pleasure might be short lived indeed. He scraped by his round of 32 group, but showed that his TvP is no longer worse than the average Code A Protoss PvT at the very least. However, it must be both disappointing and frustrating to see no chance of a mirror matchup in his quest for a top eight finish. He has always seemed a player fully capable of finally breaking into that territory, but also a player also destined to have no luck in how his groups look.

This time around is no different. While his TvP is decidedly improved, he should be no match for Creator on most days. And then there is the issue of TvZ. Ryung made a real name for himself against another player in this group, DongRaeGu, as he played one of the best games of his career and of Code S season three. His victory over the MVP Zerg on Whirlwind was stunning, but it was also followed by a 1-4 performance in the rest of his games on the day and a quick exit in the round of sixteen.

Things look different now; Ryung has claimed himself that he has no confidence in his TvZ. To be fair, he also claimed some time back that he stood no chance in TvP and he made it here by winning that matchup, so there is only so much credibility one should give such statements. But on paper, the road ahead looks long and windy indeed.

ST_Curious

It is rather interesting to observe the similarities between the two last players in Group A. Just like Ryung has long been taught to be round of eight material, it has been downright puzzling to see Curious fail so consistently to make the impact he by all rights should have. I once before stated that I suspect Curious not to be a choker, but rather a player that fails to deliver against slightly better opponents. This is at least supported by the fact that he can consistently beat players of lesser skill, almost never failing in dispatching such foes, but has struggled dearly to reproduce the clean, dominating game play when faced with tougher opposition.

But just how things have changed for Ryung, so have they for Curious. It is just that they both have come to a two way turn, and Ryung turned left. Curious does not necessarily look much stronger than before, not actually an indictment as he has always looked strong, but the caliber of player one now expect him to beat might have gone up.

At his core, Curious is still Curious. He has no decisive flaws, though he can be cheesed. He rarely loses late game. His ZvT sometimes looks unspectacular, but rarely fails to beat the players he should beat. His ZvZ has always looked spectacular, his win rate is amazing and he never looks outclassed. Finally, his ZvP was pretty much the harbinger of things to come in terms of the state of the game we see today. Just a little ahead of his Zerg brethren, he was always willing to go into the super late game and deal with motherships, archons, storms and colossi alike with his usual stoicism.

It is very difficult to point out any tangible weakness in Curious. If anything, it is the rather ephemeral quality of never producing that one spectacular game when it matters the most. Every player needs to get a little lucky to play to his absolute peak skill to turn a solid season into a winning one, and this is something we have yet to see from the Startale player. However, he looks stronger relative to his opponents than ever before, which has to be good for a player whose consistency has been the obvious forte for some time.

Ryung vs. Curious

I am not quite sure what Ryung’s preparation will be like for this match, but this is his real chance. Curious has never before made a top eight even when everything suggested that he should have. He has a variable opening game and his ZvT in general might be his worst. Unfortunately, one could have said the exact same thing about Ryung and still be substantially correct. It may not be the most clear cut matchup of this season, but Curious goes into it a heavy favorite and mostly has to avoid falling to his own little curse to move on to a winner’s match.


The Rest of the Group

Curious vs. DRG should prove an interesting winner’s match. This season looks to be dominated by Zerg, so it will be good to have a look at how two of the best face off in a mirror. On paper and given recent results, Curious might be a favorite, but in terms of intangibles, DRG holds all the aces. More booth experience, a lot more high pressure experience and his peak ZvZ skill are still ridiculously high. Whereas the winner’s match looks nigh impossible to predict, the loser’s match almost looks impossible for Ryung to win. Creator has shown that he is both historically and recently a much superior player in the matchup, and would have to choke pretty badly to go out 0 - 2 in matches. Finally, it will be Creator versus one of the Zerg. I think Creator might stand a better chance against DRG, if only for the higher chance those two have of producing build order wins for one another rather than a Creator vs. Curious matchup. However, either Zerg would go into the fifth match as a massive favorite.


DRG > Creator
Curious > Ryung
DRG > Curious
Creator > Ryung
Curious > Creator

DongRaeGu and Curious advance.