by Waxangel

MVP.TAiLS vs CJ_herO[jOin]

The GomTV teams should band together and hire some sports psychologists to counsel their players, because the pressure of being expected to win against KeSPA players is really causing their play to deteriorate. This isn't to say that all of the KeSPA victories are undeserved, because some of the games would have had the same result no matter what mental state the GomTV players were in. But in at least a few of the games you couldn't shake the feeling that a little psychological boost could have been the difference between victory and defeat.

TAiLS is a strange player, having put in an amazingly clutch performance early in his career when he beat Nestea AND Mvp to send his team to the GSTL finals. That was when Mvp and Nestea were in their primes and easily the #1 and #2 players in the world. The fearless player from that time is gone, and we've been left with a player who had trouble bringing his best against Happy last week. We can't say for sure that he'll crack under the pressure, but he's definitely at high risk.

After seeing him barely lose to Puzzle in the first round of WCS, you have go give herO a fair shake or more at taking out TAiLS. Puzzle has never been the best PvP player in GSL, but he's still an experienced and proven player, and a close series against such a player carries much merit. On the other hand, this is PvP, so you could probably disregard everything written so far and flip a coin for this prediction.

Prediction: Heads – TAiLS


FXOGuMiho vs CJ_EffOrt

Effort put up a record 4.5/5 elephants on the elephant meter with his victory over DongRaeGu, but it's now likely he will be brought down to earth. DRG is in the biggest slump of his career, and Effort's Proleague record showed even before the match that he was disproportionately strong in the Zerg mirror. He looked extremely ordinary (and thus outmatched) against Liquid's HerO in the first round of the tournament, and if his ZvT is at a similar level, he will get picked apart by Gumiho.

Of all the GomTV players left in this tournament, Gumiho might be the best Terran player, and the one with the steeliest nerves. He scored a magnificent all-kill against SlayerS in the GSTL grand-finals, after which it's hard to think anything would daunt him. On top of that, he's an amazing TvZ harassment player, which makes him the perfect hitman to exploit the biggest weakness we've seen in KeSPA players so far: their inability to deal with Terran mobility in late game ZvT. Effort can probably duel evenly with Gumiho during the lair phase, and maybe even take a win if he plays well enough there, but more likely than not, Gumiho will make him the victim of one of his rapidly performed, messy dissections in the late game.

Prediction: Gumiho 2 – 0 Effort


SAMSUNG_Reality vs LG-IM_Happy

What to expect here? Reality is kind of a surprise performer from the KeSPA contingent, being one of the less accomplished Proleague players before his WCS debut. Even now you can sense the spotlight on Reality has diminished greatly. He might have led the charge by taking out YuGiOh to give KeSPA players their first series win, but five more KeSPA victories after that, including ones by some of the biggest stars KeSPA has, will understandably draw more attention.

Reality will now be the first KeSPA player to play a GomTV player in TvT, the match-up considered the least volatile mirror. It's hard to predict how he will do, considering that he's barely played any TvT in Proleague, and even his TvZ win over YuGiOh was one of the less remarkable KeSPA wins in terms of opponent defeated or skill displayed. He just played a solid game with few mistakes, and it turned out to be good enough for a win.

Against Happy, that could be sufficient once more. Happy looked very poor against TAiLS, and if we chalk that up to nerves, we can extrapolate he'll be an even bigger wreck against a KeSPA player. He's only here in the first place because Mvp forfeited WCS due to a scheduling conflict (gotta pay the bills), and we were looking forward to seeing how the god-emperor of the GSL would erase an upstart KeSPA player from existence before we received the news.

We have seen Happy play some very good TvT in the GSL, including some games where he showed unique mixes of bio-mech to handle good TvT players like fOrGG and Ryung without much trouble. If he could play at that level in the WCS, then it would be safe to say he's favored against Reality here. However, we're not sold on his mentality here, so it could be a much closer match than it should be.

Prediction: Happy 2 – 1 Reality


SlayerS_Genius vs 8_Jaedong

It's not hard to guess what's going through Jaedong's mind at any given time. Probably "Kill," "Kill more," or "Kill again." Genius is far more complex; his aloof attitude and total acceptance of his public image as a bad, lucky, lazy player melds with his consistently good results to present a player you really don't know what to make of. He could be thinking of better rune setups for Sivir for all we know, as he plays his GSL games and proceeds to win anyway.

It's helped him a lot that he picked the ID he did, as it subconsciously steers Western fans towards the more positive interpretation of his character: a massively talented player who can't find the motivation to do more than coast. If he had chosen the ID 'Lucky' for instance, I'm sure more people would be looking at him with Virus and Ensnare colored glasses.

What's the point of that digression? Well, when we talk about the entire psychology of KeSPA vs GomTV – the advantages of having nothing to lose, the disadvantage of playing NOT to lose and what not – we're assuming everyone is your usual progamer. It's the sense of competitiveness and pride in their skill that can cause GomTV players to falter when they're put up against these underdogs with an usual background. In Genius's case, all of that pride and competitiveness might not even matter. He seems to be content to have a decent career, find success when the circumstances align, and make some reasonable money where it's to be found. He might be amused by the KeSPA transition, but probably not so troubled. In other words, Jaedong is just another player, and WCS is just another tournament.

Genius's mechanics aren't the cleanest, but he makes good decisions, chooses builds well, and puts himself in situations where 'good-enough' force-fields will allow him to beat more mechanically gifted players. Jaedong is still largely unrefined talent, with which he might be able to bludgeon lesser GomTV players to death with brute force, but will still struggle against the more experienced tournament players from the GSL.

Prediction: Genius 2 – 1 Jaedong