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Elly the ESPORTS Elephant

NASL Season 2

Group Stage Preview

Foreigners Among Foreigners

The NASL Conspiracy

Following NASL through Season 1 was a learning experience. It taught us that, yes, you can fuel ESPORTS with an outpouring of blind passion. At the same time, we learned that passion without guile can lead to hardship. We learned that the people in ESPORTS can disappoint us harshly, but we also learned that it was because we felt too entitled to 100% of their efforts and heart.

Lessons in hand, NASL has returned. They have responded to our criticisms, and sought to improve themselves in every way. All the troubles in the past approached them as surprises, but now they will be prepared. And we as viewers, have returned again to judge. Paradoxical as it may seem, part of being a good fan is being one who can judge dispassionately. We are being offered a chance to do so: the first week of NASL will be free for all to see.

So let us not rush to form opinion, but carefully decide what our reaction will be. For after a week, we will know the potential of the league: to be good, bad, or perhaps even excellent.

Group Stage Preview:
Featuring the ESPORTS Prospectus

By: TeamLiquid

Intuition versus calculation. Intangibles versus data. Ever since Moneyball was published in 2003, the use of statistical analysis has been a ongoing subplot in the world of athletics. Is it any surprise that there are those who would attempt such an analysis for its, geekier, electronic cousin in ESPORTS?

After getting thoroughly drubbed at MLG Anaheim, PrimaDog has returned with a new and improved edition of his ESPORTS Prospectus to predict the NASL Season 2 group stage. Going up against it is our NASL writing team, who have assembled the full strength of their noble human faculties against this horrendous creation of mathematics and science. Will the ESPORTS Prospectus reach its stated goal of 70% accuracy? Will the TeamLiquid writers overcome their ridiculous NA bias? And in the end, will shirts be eaten? By December, we shall know the answer.

Division One

Rank	confusedcrib	JimLloyd	zarepath	Lovedrop	Prospectus
#1	Fenix	Fenix	DeMuslim	HerO	HerO
#2	HerO	HerO	HerO	White-Ra	White-Ra
#3	Sheth	DeMuslim	Fenix	Sheth	Sheth
#4	White-Ra	White-Ra	Lowely	DeMuslim	DeMuslim
#5	DeMuslim	Sheth	Sheth	Fenix	Lowely
#6	Vibe	Lowely	White-Ra	Cruncher	Cruncher
#7	Lowely	Cruncher	Vibe	Vibe	Vibe
#8	Cruncher	Vibe	Cruncher	Lowely	Fenix

TL Writers Say:

confusedcrib: "Anyone who's watched Fenix in GSTL knows just how much he's improved over the past month or two. His Korean training is starting to pay off, and I expect great things."

Lovedrop: "1st is a no brainer. HerO’s innovation leads the way for Protoss around the world and even in the darkest times, he has held the torch for a brighter future."

zarepath: "Hero will lose the top spot by either losing in a slightly imba match-up (TvP) against the two top foreigner Terrans in Fenix and DeMuslim, or taking an upset PvZ loss against the Zergs Sheth or LoWeLy in their best match-up."

Prospectus Says:

"Fenix's three-kill against was impressive and unlikely, but we need to focus more on the latter. It most certainly elevates Fenix from his previous position at a low-tier foreign player, but it shows a lack of prudence to immediately shoot him to the top of the group following such a small sample of games. Furthermore, while Lowely does not have much of a resume at big tournaments, his record shows that he is still marvelously average player, trading games at a near 50% rate against other top Europeans. At worst, we can predict a mid table finish for the Belarusian."

Division Two

Rank	confusedcrib	JimLloyd	zarepath	Lovedrop	Prospectus
#1	Rain	DarkForce	Rain	Rain	Brat_OK
#2	HuK	Rain	HuK	HuK	Mana
#3	DarkForce	HuK	DarkForce	Mana	Rain
#4	Mana	Mana	Cloud	Brat_OK	DarkForce
#5	Haypro	Brat_OK	Mana	Haypro	HuK
#6	Brat_OK	Cloud	Brat_OK	DarkForce	Axslav
#7	Axslave	Haypro	Haypro	Cloud	Cloud
#8	Cloud	Axslav	Axslav	Axslav	Haypro

TL Writers Say:

zarepath: "HayprO makes too many drones, and Axslav has to listen to iNcontroL talk on podcasts all day."

emytherel: "HuK and Rain. It really is that simple, no other discussion needed."

JimLloyd: "DarkForce's zerg play has been an inspiration. His skill -- his patience in particular -- will allow him to weather the wild aggression of HuK and the supposedly imbalanced Korean Terran style."

Prospectus Says:

"Unconditional, abject terror in the face of the Korean-trained is understandable but irrational. Take away their backgrounds, and the record will show that HuK and Rain have been most fallible in recent months. Brat_OK's stats might be called 'inflated' by some, as many of his victories have been recorded against lesser known players from Eastern Europe. However, the players he defeated are subject to the same ELO valuations as everyone else in the international player pool. We shall take it as a point of confidence in TLPD that victories against a Russian player are equally as valuable as wins against more commonly known opponents with the same ELO."

Division Three

Rank	confusedcrib	JimLloyd	zarepath	Lovedrop	Prospectus
#1	Idra	Idra	Sjow	Kiwikaki	Sjow
#2	Sjow	Sjow	Idra	Idra	Hwangsin
#3	Kiwikaki	HwangSin	HwangSin	Jinro	Kiwikaki
#4	Hwangsin	Kiwikaki	Morrow	Socke	Morrow
#5	Morrow	Jinro	Jinro	Morrow	Socke
#6	Jinro	Morrow	Socke	Sjow	Idra
#7	Socke	Socke	Kiwikaki	Softball	Jinro
#8	Softball	Softball	Softball	Hwangsin	SoftBall

TL Writers Say:

confusedcrib: "Idra seems like he can do well in the NASL. This is because every match is so far apart from the last that his mental control over the psychopathic, Protoss hating child residing in his brain will be much higher."

Lovedrop: "Hwangsin wished TL Opens had trophies, because he won’t be getting one anytime soon (and definitely not here)."

Prospectus Says:

"August was a poor month for Idra, where he found it difficult to find wins against opponents of similar caliber to those in his NASL group. In the meanwhile, Hwangsin's all-in style is has been proven to be a solid way to grind out victories, despite its perception of being less skillful. One improvement we hope to make in the future is to take into account the preparation time for leagues such as NASL, where opponents might equip themselves to deal with Hwangsin's tactics. On a purely subjective level, we do think that it will factor in his performance to some degree, though we cannot say as to what degree."

Division Four

Rank	confusedcrib	JimLloyd	zarepath	Lovedrop	Prospectus
#1	Sen	Strelok	Select	Select	Strelok
#2	Select	Sen	Strelok	Ret	Sen
#3	Ret	Select	Sen	Sen	Ret
#4	Strelok	Ret	Ret	Strelok	Moonglade
#5	Incontrol	NightEnD	NightEnd	Moonglade	Select
#6	NightEnd	Incontrol	Inka	Inka	NightEnd
#7	Moonglade	Moonglade	Incontrol	Nightend	Inka
#8	Inka	Inka	Moonglade	Incontrol	Incontrol

TL Writers Say:

Lovedrop: "If the NASL was a giant pot of coffee, Group 4 would be half & half. I can see the top 4 winning by a rather large margin, while the other four will sit wondering what really happened during these 7 weeks."

zarepath: "Top four: SeleCT is just a beast, Strelok has excellent TvZ in a three-Zerg division, Sen edges Ret with his ZvZ."

JimLloyd: "Strelok's frightening determination, only hardened by the injustice he suffered last season, will carry him past his foes."

Prospectus Says:

"Though Sen's positioning at the top of TLPD ELO due to his inactivity in foreign tournaments points to a specific fault of the system, Strelok's gained his current (as of Sept 13th), placement at #2 through much recent activity. By non-concrete measures we would say he has momentum; more dryly, he has won very many games in a short amount of time."

Division Five

Rank	confusedcrib	JimLloyd	zarepath	Lovedrop	Prospectus
#1	Puma	Puma	Puma	Puma	Puma
#2	Dimaga	Dimaga	HasuObs	HasuObs	Dimaga
#3	TLO	HasuObs	Dimaga	Dimaga	qxc
#4	HasuObs	qxc	Tyler	Tyler	HasuObs
#5	qxc	TLO	qxc	qxc	TT1
#6	Tyler	TT1	Moman	TLO	Moman
#7	TT1	Tyler	TLO	TT1	Tyler
#8	Moman	Moman	TT1	Moman	TLO

TL Writers Say:

emytherel: "If qxc doesn't make it out of this group I will be very surprised, the only player that is a threat to the now Korean trained QXC is the sole Korean of the group, PuMa."

confusedcrib: "Since TLO, Tyler, and HasuObs are the biggest wildcards ever, it's almost impossible to effectively rate past first place."

Lovedrop: "Puma’s in Korea and there’s lag/bad playing hours? Puma could be in Antarctica and still win this group. Well, at least we still have Moman. Can someone tell him to stop playing his matches in front of the Louvre?"

Prospectus Says:

"And here we have the Korean trained player who is most deserving of his fearsome reputation. There is an interesting coincidence where he has lost only one series to a non-Korean player in his international tournament career (Mana at IEM Cologne). For the sake of simplicity, we assume that the Korean SC II scene and the rest of the world operate under similar principles, but anecdotal evidence suggests at least that it is not the case."

Foreigners Among Foreigners

by Shindigs & WaxAngel

With the Global Starcraft II League being composed of primarily Koreans and the North American Starleague hosting players from all over the world, it’s hard to trust the names of StarCraft 2 tournaments anymore. For better or for worse, NASL Season 2 has the feel of a true “global” Starleague. The league's namesake North Americans are truly foreigners (in the international sense) among foreigners (in the Starcraft sense) in this upcoming season, as Korea and the very best nations of the world are well represented in the five groups of NASL. Here, we try to look at the individual nations of NASL, and the stories they bring.

Korea: the non-Foreigners

Though the Korean teams orchestrated a dramatic withdrawal from NASL Season 2, the Koreans still found a way to take our money. (P)

HwangSin,

HerO,

Rain, and

PuMa are some of Korea's fiercest and most enterprising players, having found ways to join foreign teams that sponsor their opportunities abroad while allowing them to practice within the unmatched South Korean gaming environment (except Rain, who mysteriously manages to maintain his skill from the tri-state area).

Though they only represent 10% of the total players, recent trends make it feels like the chance of a Korean winning the tournament is over 90%. HwangSin is sort of the odd man out here, with his unorthodox all-in or nothing style getting him rated as one of the 'weaker' Koreans. Which still makes him better than most of the field. On the other hand, Puma, the 'best' Korean, probably isn't going to lose a single series to a non-Korean (which has only happened once in his career).

The following video was made after MLG Columbus, but it's become an apt representation of the scene ever since:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHbfP5SIn0Y

Ukraine: The Best of the Rest

With (Z)

DIMAGA taking down Assembly Summer and (P)

White-Ra bringing home the championship from IPL Season 2, Ukraine has, for the time being, positioned herself as the best non-Korean country in the world. It's really a shame that not all four horsemen of the Ukrainian Apocalypse could be gathered for the NASL, as (T)

Kas unfortunately failed to quality. Had all four been present, the dominant story of NASL could easily have been Korea vs Ukraine, a battle that would be much closer than some might think.

White-Ra: Manner. Kas: Consistency. Dimaga: Passion. Strelok: Good looks. Together, they are Team Ukraine.

Remember, Dimaga is the player that handed Nestea, the supposed God of Zerg, his only ZvZ series loss of all time. Similarly, White-Ra has proven to be quite a match for the Kratoss Protoss, MC. So against the four non-Pantheon Koreans gathered at NASL, Ukraine has a pretty good shot.

Now, if only (T)

Strelok could get a visa...

Sweden: Brain Drain

"Human capital flight, more commonly referred to as "brain drain", is the large-scale emigration of a large group of individuals with technical skills or knowledge." - Wikipedia

Korea has been merciless at taking our money, whether it is by sending their gamers to take foreign prize money or siphoning our wallets through GomTV subscriptions. But they haven't stopped there. Not only do they want our material wealth, but they want our best talent as well.

Many top players from Sweden, the former #1 Western power in Starcraft II, have been lured to Korea with promises of glory, and it is worrisome as to whether any of them shall return. (T)

Jinro is already lost to us, while (P)

NaNiwa and (P)

SaSe (both not competing in NASL) seem determined to remain in Korea as well. Will we see (T)

SjoW, who now bears the Swedish flag, appear in an Startale jersey and wave the Taegukgi at the season 2 grand final?

(Z)

MorroW was briefly tempted during the GSL World Championship, but wisely erred on the side of caution, choosing not to linger and returned home swiftly instead.

It is here that we should realize there is one Swede for whom we should spare no praise: (Z)

HayprO. After having lived in Korea for several months, he managed to break free of its deadly but enchanting siren call to successfully navigate his way back home to Sweden. Now he proudly represents Sweden in tournaments around the world, where he (as of yet, unsuccessfully) attempts to avenge his captured brethren.

Taiwan: Sen and Some Guy

I have no idea who (T)

SoftBall is. For the tournament's sake I hope he's the next Bonjwa, but he's probably not. Anyway, now Taiwan has two players in the NASL, while China still has zero; obviously part of the NASL's long term plan to alienate even more East Asian Starcraft powers (I kid).

Germany: The Dark Force of Dark Horses

Before we talk about how Germany's been doing, we need to say something about (Z)

DarKFoRcE. I know, MC vs Puma melted everyone's brains, and now we can't remember anything else that happened at the last NASL Grand Finals, but if you recall, DarkForce ACTUALLY BEAT A KOREAN there. Yes, not only did he beat Alive, but he did it in some nail-biting, uber-epic long games. So let's give credit where credit's due, he really brought to life an otherwise very depressing day 1 of the finals.

For the most part, Germany has been the European example of how population and GDP don't seem to have any relation to Starcraft skill. You know, like America! They're both kinda good at Starcraft II, but any compliment beyond that seems like flattery.

So we'll call (P)

Socke,

TLO,

HasuObs, and (Z)

DarKFoRcE the dark horses, though it's becoming a rapidly more populated group due to Koreans. If NASL was giving out collective performance medals to participating countries, Germany would be perfectly situated to take the bronze medal, and maybe even give Ukraine a spirited fight for the silver. Alas, gold does seems rather far beyond their grasp.

North America: The Hosts

+ Show Spoiler [Team North America] +

Canada:

HuK,

KiWiKaKi, and (P)

TT1.

USA: (T)

SeleCT,

Sheth,

IdrA,

ViBE,

CrunCher,

Axslav,

iNkA,

qxc,

iNcontroL, and (P)

Tyler.

In its combined power, North America represents a very formidable force. It is called the North American Starleague after all, and it would be nice to see them have more than two representatives at the grand finals this time around. To that end, it looks like quite a nice roster, especially if we exercise some delicious double standards and consider Select an American, and HuK a Canadian, which would give the North Americans the two very best cards with which to defeat the Koreans.

Sadly, neither of them will give much cause for a raucous "USA! USA!" chant if they should win... Such a shame, because for all our trouble at playing Starcraft II, we do happen to have the best fans in the world. Give us an ounce of hope, and we'll explode. Upset a Korean, and we'll go supernova. Idra, we're looking at you. It's your destiny!

And if that fails, I hope we can all join in a nice "CA-NA-DA! CA-NA-DA!" chant for KiwiKaki.

The Rest of the World:

+ Show Spoiler [The Rest] +

DeMusliM,

Fenix,

LoWeLy,

BRAT_OK,

ClouD,

MaNa,

NightEnD,

mOOnGLaDe, (Z)

Ret,

MoMaN

Hm, this team is actually better than North America.

The NASL Conspiracy

by: JimLloyd

I was completely convinced that (T)

Strelok was going to win Season One. Have you listened to him on those interviews? His rant against Naniwa for not having shown up for his first match was epic (and drew several “what the @#$% is this?” comments from friends I had invited over to watch the premiere week of the NASL with me). And the focus displayed in a later one was a little frightening. I was going purely by psychology, and frankly, I’m a little scared of him myself. Like the legendary New Zealand rugby team that is said to win most of their matches with their fearsome pre-game haka, Strelok was going to show up at the finals and throw that handsome smirk of his to his opponent across the stage. At that point, the outcome would already have been decided.

Alas, there was nothing Strelok could do when faced with his toughest opponent yet: [image loading]

the U.S. Department of State. Visa issues cropped up several times last season; who’d have thought that U.S. national security policy would harm ESPORTS?

That smirk of his.

Was this just a simple clerical error? An example of the bloated U.S. diplomatic bureaucracy? Or...

...is it another piece of evidence of a mounting conspiracy that reaches up into the highest echelons of global power, with Strelok cast as a poor fly caught in a web of international intrigue stretching beyond our wildest imagination?

Think: Strelok was prevented from participating in the NASL Grand Finals. He stated in his explanation that the NASL even contacted a sitting U.S. Representative to attempt to fast-track his visa application, but to no avail. Representative Joe Baca (D-CA) represents Ontario, California, and is seated on the House Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry. Why is that committeeship relevant? Well, in Strelok’s place the NASL team sensibly selected the runner-up from the Open Tournament, who just happened to be a Korean player (aLive). With the recent dust-up over U.S. beef imports to Korea and the current discussions about trade agreements between the United States and South Korea, is it a coincidence that the call to Rep. Baca was unsuccessful?

It goes deeper. There’s another major competition series in North America: the IGN ProLeague. Its parent company, the Imagine Games Network, is owned by NewsCorp, which has come under some criticism for potentially having committed a truly impressive set of crimes involving the violation of people’s privacy. The evidence so far suggests that the Department of Justice could easily make out a prima facie case against the company for having violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, but the Obama administration -- the same people who “delayed” Strelok’s visa application -- have failed to move forward with it. And is anyone aware of incriminating calls that IGN staffers had used to threaten the Korean team managers to keep them from participating in an event sponsored by a competitor? Some might say that it’s irresponsible to speculate about things like this; on the contrary, I think it’s irresponsible not to.

Moreover, think about the effects on the Korea / U.S. trade balance if oGsMC were allowed to play in the NASL Grand Finals. Some sources have suggested that he’s not the best poker player in the world. Directly off the highway from Ontario, California to Los Angeles International Airport is the Hollywood Park Casino. A quick detour and his winnings could easily be diverted back into the domestic American economy. IGN, however, has cleverly scheduled their large tournament in Atlantic City, New Jersey, over 3000 miles from Hollywood Park!

And there is some evidence that the staff of a sitting U.S. Senator, Charles Grassley (R-IA), was aware of some of NewsCorp’s illegal activities but did not refer them to the Justice Department. Senator Grassley sits on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, and on the Senate Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness (emphasis added). Which is what this whole crazy game’s really been about. The Obama administration, Democratic Representatives from California, Republican Senators from America’s heartland, and conservative billionaire media moguls from Australia working together and using the full power and authority of the U.S. government to maintain Korean eSports dominance for the benefit of American beef producers. When put that way, one can't help but think: how could I have been so blind?

There’s one problem with this theory, however: it’s too obvious. With giant media corporations and government agencies like the CIA involved, clearly the parties would have done a better job covering their tracks and not laying out all the connections for everyone to see. Maybe I've overthought this a little. Maybe IGN and the NASL are just two organizations both devoted to bringing to us, the viewers, great Starcraft II competition. Maybe we should just sit back and enjoy nine weeks of almost daily matches featuring great players that we all know and love. Well, when I put it that way, I guess it's a pretty exciting time to be a fan of eSports.

[NASL] Season 2 Preview

[NASL] Season 2 Preview

Group Stage Preview:
Featuring the ESPORTS Prospectus

By: TeamLiquid

Foreigners Among Foreigners

by Shindigs & WaxAngel

The NASL Conspiracy

by: JimLloyd

Completed

Ongoing

Upcoming

[NASL] Season 2 Preview

Group Stage Preview:Featuring the ESPORTS Prospectus

By: TeamLiquid

Foreigners Among Foreigners

by Shindigs & WaxAngel

The NASL Conspiracy

by: JimLloyd

Completed

Ongoing

Upcoming

Group Stage Preview:
Featuring the ESPORTS Prospectus