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[GG] Red Army Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
person935
Profile Joined July 2009
United States13 Posts
July 29 2009 23:54 GMT
#316
I agree with Ver. People seem to be forgetting the other options NKVDs have.
rawr
person935
Profile Joined July 2009
United States13 Posts
July 30 2009 01:22 GMT
#329
On July 30 2009 10:02 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 09:59 Zato-1 wrote:
On July 30 2009 09:53 coltrane wrote:
Is way more convenient to lower directly the KP than make them believe we have more HP than we actually have.

No one's arguing against that, the discussion is whether having NKVDs posing as rebels would have a net effect of lowering their KP or if that would simply create one huge political mess in the Town, making us turn on ourselves due to false accusations.

On a tangentially related note: What's KP stand for? Killing Power of the mafia?


yea KP. And you've kinda summed it up: no point in trying to lower Rebel KP if it would turn the place chaotic.


Won't it get chaotic anyways when other roles find mafia? Zato/coltrane's argument is starting to make some sense to me.. what am I missing?
rawr
person935
Profile Joined July 2009
United States13 Posts
July 30 2009 02:08 GMT
#333
Why would the plan be done if the mafia wait until nighttime to contact?
------
Some math that might be useless but I had fun:

If we assume the NKVD are randomly checking people, the expected number of found mafia is a little under 3 (because 5 * (9/53 + 9/52 + 9/51)). I guess the expected number of found mafia for the "landmine" plan is 5?

So for the "NKVD wait and use their 3 checks" plan to have an expected value of at least 5, they would each need to narrow down their list of suspects to 28 or fewer.
-----
As long as all the NKVD use the landmine plan, I don't see why it would cause any more confusion, since they are the only people who can determine who is mafia (either by RC or having mafia contact them). In either case, the NKVD will have to come forward and say someone is mafia, right?

Someone should figure out the probabilities for the mafia killing the NKVD in the "wait and check" plan, which would probably further push the numbers towards the landmine plan. This is my first game, so I don't know if it is reasonable to expect the NKVD to narrow down their suspect list to 28 (actually fewer, since I left out the probability that some of them will die) before making checks. What do y'all think?
rawr
person935
Profile Joined July 2009
United States13 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-30 02:14:13
July 30 2009 02:10 GMT
#334
(that was based on 9 mafia and 5 NKVDs)
(and upon further thought, the analysis is probably not very useful since we don't know any numbers for roles.. lol, oh well)
rawr
person935
Profile Joined July 2009
United States13 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-30 02:23:58
July 30 2009 02:21 GMT
#337
On July 30 2009 11:18 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 11:08 person935 wrote:
Why would the plan be done if the mafia wait until nighttime to contact?
------


Because at night Rebels have to kill. If the Rebels approach each other and say prove it by killing X there isn't enough time to bullshit.



Yeah, but the Rebels wouldn't know until morning, at which point the NKVDs would be telling the group that they found a mafia. Worst case, the mafia says he found a mafia, which means we would first kill the NKVD who was accused by the mafia, then kill the mafia (instead of killing the mafia first).
rawr
person935
Profile Joined July 2009
United States13 Posts
August 12 2009 02:28 GMT
#1194
Hi! I see that c.ngek thinks I'm a mafia. I'm not, I'm green. This is the first game I've played, and it coincided with me starting a new job, so my lack of experience combined with my lack of time to create APATHY. My votes were weird because I sometimes just voted to kill the person who was the most annoying at the time (Ace and Elemenope).

So in conclusion, don't lynch me.
rawr
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