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[GG] Red Army Mafia - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 29 2009 20:23 GMT
#241
yep. Between your math that makes no sense because it works on some retarded assumptions like every NKVD agent getting lucky with checks, and information not spreading really fast (which it does) and the fact you don't know how many roles are present - to this. Trying to convince NKVD agents to go undercover when they'd have a hell of a time convincing the town their target is a rebel and they'd have to find the dumbest Ukrainian around to let them in AND survive.

This is why you won't be elected. You can't even think through the most basic of scenarios.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Scamp
Profile Joined October 2008
United States1086 Posts
July 29 2009 20:25 GMT
#242
How do you sort through the liars? You play the game, silly!

Maybe it's not the optimal plan but I think it's something worth considering, if anything just for the possibility of it happening which puts the Ukranians on edge. I also think the NKVD can buy himself way more than just 1 or 2 days time, depending on when he's checked by a Ukranian. Remember that the Ukranians are going to be spending lots of time role-checking (unless some of them are really trigger-happy) and the NKVD agent doesn't even have to lie about the results of his role-checks when asked, assuming he's been role-checking.
Cheese is good for you!
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 29 2009 20:33 GMT
#243
of course the NKVD agent won't lie about the results of his role check.

But if all of them are undercover and an NKVD agent checks another NKVD agent the guy flips Rebel. So now we are about to lynch 2 NKVD Agents.

Of course the same exact thing happens if an NKVD Agent RCs a Rebel. Of course it's even worse this time because the NKVD Agent will be killed immediately assuming the Ukrainians aren't stupid. They don't have to RC him right away - just ask him who he killed previously and who he will kill the next night.

In both situations the NKVD agent loses or everyone has an option to lie that takes even more time to disprove. No one has yet to answer how you sort through the liars because there is the case that both people are telling the truth, both are innocent but since both of them went undercover they both appear guilty. Ukrainians win.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 29 2009 20:37 GMT
#244
Okay, so, pages 5-10 done properly.

So far foolishness is starting with his classic 'I'm a retard' shit, which he does every game. From what I've been told, its a method to keep him alive into days 3-4 without being day 1-2 killed by mafia, which kinda blows donkey dick because its the type of play which half-fucks the town who are looking for people posting inconsistently. I thought this of last game. I still think it this game. THEN HE GETS ARRESTED ROFL.

Ver is kinda surprising me because he's putting down a fairly high volume of one liner/space waster posts. If what Qatol told me last game is correct (that Ver was the one who told him about Foolishness' style), he might be trying to emulate him because he's got an importantish role. OR he thinks he's going to get mafia buttfucked day 1. Does any of this mean anything at this point? No. Very little data to work with, but its interesting to see.

Ace is running, as I kinda expected him to. Really very little off in the way he's calling people out.

SCAMP IS ACTUALLY TALKING THIS GAME. HOLY FUCKBALLS HE MIGHT NOT BE MAFIA THIS TIME.

As for Ace's last post: you've essentially summed up why our DTs are going to want to play rebel (ALL OF THEM). If we can make it very hard for mafia to team up, we force mafia self-killing. Any NKVD agent that gets into a ring gains a huge amount of information, and our risk/reward goes from 1 NKVD:1Ukranian to 1NKVD:1Ring. The slower mafia play, and the more information they gather, the more we would want our DTs rolling rebel. The only possible shit-scenario would be NKVD finding each other, but that's where people need to bust out their behavioral analysis hats and get to work.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Zato-1
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Chile4253 Posts
July 29 2009 20:37 GMT
#245
Man, I'm making myself look like a complete noob at this. Which I am, of sorts. Sounds like a fun game.
Go here http://vina.biobiochile.cl/ and input the Konami Code (up up down down left right left right B A)
Scamp
Profile Joined October 2008
United States1086 Posts
July 29 2009 20:39 GMT
#246
Well that situation of the two NKVD agents targeting each other would be unfortunate but unlikely.

Besides, the point isn't to take out one Ukranian. The point is to infiltrate a group in order to take out a bunch of them. I don't think I'd want to start hitting people if I were in a Ukranian group of two or three, so getting "confirmed" by killing someone wouldn't be a problem until later.
Cheese is good for you!
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 20:42 GMT
#247
On July 30 2009 05:23 Ace wrote:
yep. Between your math that makes no sense because it works on some retarded assumptions like every NKVD agent getting lucky with checks, and information not spreading really fast (which it does) and the fact you don't know how many roles are present - to this. Trying to convince NKVD agents to go undercover when they'd have a hell of a time convincing the town their target is a rebel and they'd have to find the dumbest Ukrainian around to let them in AND survive.

This is why you won't be elected. You can't even think through the most basic of scenarios.


Of course i have thought about it. But there will be clues to. And NKVD will have where comunicate their information always.


On July 30 2009 05:33 Ace wrote:
of course the NKVD agent won't lie about the results of his role check.

But if all of them are undercover and an NKVD agent checks another NKVD agent the guy flips Rebel. So now we are about to lynch 2 NKVD Agents.

Of course the same exact thing happens if an NKVD Agent RCs a Rebel. Of course it's even worse this time because the NKVD Agent will be killed immediately assuming the Ukrainians aren't stupid. They don't have to RC him right away - just ask him who he killed previously and who he will kill the next night.

In both situations the NKVD agent loses or everyone has an option to lie that takes even more time to disprove. No one has yet to answer how you sort through the liars because there is the case that both people are telling the truth, both are innocent but since both of them went undercover they both appear guilty. Ukrainians win.


The thing is, if you are ukranian and you contact me as an ukranian and ask me about my killing list i just RC you for free and have the rest of the day to spread information. even mass PM to everyone else a in-case-i-die-tonight-he-RC-me
Jävla skit
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
July 29 2009 20:49 GMT
#248
I wish I could say something here to help argue why having NKVD agents pose as Ukrainians is a bad idea...but I think Ace has pretty much covered all of the reasons. Probably the only advantage I can see is that the threat of the detectives doing this will cause the Ukrainians to hesitate in contacting each other after a successful role check. Considering the fact that the town already has a pretty big advantage, doing this can arguably be worth the detectives time as it stalls any form of organization between the Ukrainians.

However, I think anyone who thinks that the detectives can easily infiltrate a decently sized portion of the network are seriously underestimating how smart these guys can be. Just the threat of DTs posing as Ukrainians is going to make them a hell of a lot more cautious in terms of who they trust. Verifying someone as Ukrainian is, as Ace mentioned, as easy as asking them who they killed the previous night or who they'll kill the next night. The detective would have to be incredibly lucky to get either of these questions correct, and if he doesn't he'll be killed. Basically he'll go through all of this work to get just a single Ukrainian, which can easily be done without all of this pretending.

In short, I'm in favor of NKVD posing as Ukrainian, but I'm heavily against this idea of them trying to infiltrate the network as it'll just be a waste of time and effort on their part imo.
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
July 29 2009 20:50 GMT
#249
hmmm...so it seem I kind of changed my mind mid-post. Anyways, the last sentence in that post is where I stand right now in regards to this issue.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 29 2009 20:53 GMT
#250
On July 30 2009 05:37 L wrote:
\

As for Ace's last post: you've essentially summed up why our DTs are going to want to play rebel (ALL OF THEM). If we can make it very hard for mafia to team up, we force mafia self-killing. Any NKVD agent that gets into a ring gains a huge amount of information, and our risk/reward goes from 1 NKVD:1Ukranian to 1NKVD:1Ring. The slower mafia play, and the more information they gather, the more we would want our DTs rolling rebel. The only possible shit-scenario would be NKVD finding each other, but that's where people need to bust out their behavioral analysis hats and get to work.



come on L, let's be serious here. In fact assume I'm a Ukrainian Rebel and you're an NKVD agent. do you REALLY think you'd ever successfully convince me you really are a Rebel and that you could get me to give up information about what I know and then get me lynched?

The plan only works assuming our enemies are completely fucking stupid. I'm not playing the game based on that because it's an epic fail. Watch the NKVD agents all try it and all die. I guarantee it if the Rebels are even half competent.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 20:54 GMT
#251
On July 30 2009 05:49 Falcynn wrote:
I wish I could say something here to help argue why having NKVD agents pose as Ukrainians is a bad idea...but I think Ace has pretty much covered all of the reasons. Probably the only advantage I can see is that the threat of the detectives doing this will cause the Ukrainians to hesitate in contacting each other after a successful role check. Considering the fact that the town already has a pretty big advantage, doing this can arguably be worth the detectives time as it stalls any form of organization between the Ukrainians.

However, I think anyone who thinks that the detectives can easily infiltrate a decently sized portion of the network are seriously underestimating how smart these guys can be. Just the threat of DTs posing as Ukrainians is going to make them a hell of a lot more cautious in terms of who they trust. Verifying someone as Ukrainian is, as Ace mentioned, as easy as asking them who they killed the previous night or who they'll kill the next night. The detective would have to be incredibly lucky to get either of these questions correct, and if he doesn't he'll be killed. Basically he'll go through all of this work to get just a single Ukrainian, which can easily be done without all of this pretending.

In short, I'm in favor of NKVD posing as Ukrainian, but I'm heavily against this idea of them trying to infiltrate the network as it'll just be a waste of time and effort on their part imo.



The first idea is a plus granted.

The second is just speculation, i wouldn risk my hand on that, but could be fkn awesome.
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-29 20:57:08
July 29 2009 20:56 GMT
#252
On July 30 2009 05:53 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 05:37 L wrote:
\

As for Ace's last post: you've essentially summed up why our DTs are going to want to play rebel (ALL OF THEM). If we can make it very hard for mafia to team up, we force mafia self-killing. Any NKVD agent that gets into a ring gains a huge amount of information, and our risk/reward goes from 1 NKVD:1Ukranian to 1NKVD:1Ring. The slower mafia play, and the more information they gather, the more we would want our DTs rolling rebel. The only possible shit-scenario would be NKVD finding each other, but that's where people need to bust out their behavioral analysis hats and get to work.



come on L, let's be serious here. In fact assume I'm a Ukrainian Rebel and you're an NKVD agent. do you REALLY think you'd ever successfully convince me you really are a Rebel and that you could get me to give up information about what I know and then get me lynched?

The plan only works assuming our enemies are completely fucking stupid. I'm not playing the game based on that because it's an epic fail. Watch the NKVD agents all try it and all die. I guarantee it if the Rebels are even half competent.



They will die anyway if they got checked as anything else.... If they are checked as ukranians they will actually talk to an 100% ukranian before die = free RC
Jävla skit
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 29 2009 20:56 GMT
#253
There won't be networks if all the NKVD are posing as rebels. That's the entire point. By the time ukranians can successfully check themselves, we'll be on day 3 and their time limit will be blowing by. Similarly, Ace's theory that a Ukranian can ask for prior kill and future kill is substantially harmed by the fact that the prior kill doesn't exist due to the fact that the "Rebel" used a check the night before, and that a medic can catch the following hit. If any of that 'luck' happens, we have 2 ukranians who essentially kill themselves for us.

The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 29 2009 20:59 GMT
#254
come on L, let's be serious here. In fact assume I'm a Ukrainian Rebel and you're an NKVD agent. do you REALLY think you'd ever successfully convince me you really are a Rebel and that you could get me to give up information about what I know and then get me lynched?
Brah, I don't need to convince you of anything other than the fact that all our NKVD are going to be rebel to force you to slow the fuck down. We can switch to full NKVD showing on day 3-4.

Your reply admits this.

That's the entire point: Like you said earlier. Mafia are in the dark here which is why they are 'fucked'. If we can push that advantage to the max, we maximize our only advantage against them. Lynches won't have ukranian trains in them. Hits may kill our opponents for us. There will be no shared analysis or hit lists. These are HUGE bonuses.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 29 2009 21:00 GMT
#255
On July 30 2009 05:39 Scamp wrote:
Well that situation of the two NKVD agents targeting each other would be unfortunate but unlikely.

Besides, the point isn't to take out one Ukranian. The point is to infiltrate a group in order to take out a bunch of them. I don't think I'd want to start hitting people if I were in a Ukranian group of two or three, so getting "confirmed" by killing someone wouldn't be a problem until later.


Impossible to call. No idea how the NKVD agents individually select who they want to Role Check. you can't get IN the group - that's the problem. Once again think of it basically like this:

Ace - NKVD Agent
Scamp - Ukrainian Rebel

Ace - o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3
Scamp - o ok. cool. This is L and coltrane, their rebels too. Sup?
Ace - lol newbs I'm an Agent. GG.

Do you really think you'd do that?

or is it more like this:

Ace -o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3
Scamp - that's nice hoe. Who did you kill last night?
Ace - oh I killed...um...Foolishness. (I have no idea who really did so I'm guessing)
Scamp(who knows the truth because he knows who killed Foolishness) - o ok. Well I can't trust you yet so who are you going to kill tomorrow night?
Ace - um...I'll kill LucasWoj!
Scamp - ok well when Lucas shows up dead I'll let you know!

2 problems already fucks the Agent over:
I die immediately because Scamp knows the truth and kills me.
I survive till the next day but Lucas doesn't die unless I get super lucky. If he doesn't I'm killed. The best I could do is roleclaim to the town that I'm an NKVD agent and found Scamp.
Scamp of course says he's also an NKVD Agent and was undercover also.

How do you sort through the liars? Even worse - what if Scamp really is an NKVD agent.

Come on, I know what I'm talking about here. You guys are assuming the Rebels are so dumb as not to ask 2 simple questions which would destroy any NKVD agent without a lot of information ahead of time.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-29 21:01:56
July 29 2009 21:01 GMT
#256
Yeah, since I'm not sure if I was clear enough, I'm going to try to detail this better.

NKVD should disguise themselves as Ukrainians
This is good because it'll force the Ukrainians to be more careful about who they trust, stalling any form of organization between them for at least a few days. The only drawback to this is if an NKVD targets another NKVD, which is fairly unlikely, but if it does happen it shouldn't be too disastrous because...

NKVD should not try to infiltrate the network
This is a waste of time, because the Ukrainians have enough methods at their disposal to verify Ukrainians within a day. If an NKVD agent comes out to a Ukrainian, then they have roughly 1 day left to live. If they're that suicidal, they may as well just open up to the town and pray for medic protection. They should simply disguise as Ukrainian, then continue playing as if this was any other mafia game by subtly trying to sway the towns opinion with what they find out rather than trying to come out in the open.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 29 2009 21:03 GMT
#257
On July 30 2009 06:00 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 05:39 Scamp wrote:
Well that situation of the two NKVD agents targeting each other would be unfortunate but unlikely.

Besides, the point isn't to take out one Ukranian. The point is to infiltrate a group in order to take out a bunch of them. I don't think I'd want to start hitting people if I were in a Ukranian group of two or three, so getting "confirmed" by killing someone wouldn't be a problem until later.


Impossible to call. No idea how the NKVD agents individually select who they want to Role Check. you can't get IN the group - that's the problem. Once again think of it basically like this:

Ace - NKVD Agent
Scamp - Ukrainian Rebel

Ace - o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3
Scamp - o ok. cool. This is L and coltrane, their rebels too. Sup?
Ace - lol newbs I'm an Agent. GG.

Do you really think you'd do that?

or is it more like this:

Ace -o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3
Scamp - that's nice hoe. Who did you kill last night?
Ace - oh I killed...um...Foolishness. (I have no idea who really did so I'm guessing)
Scamp(who knows the truth because he knows who killed Foolishness) - o ok. Well I can't trust you yet so who are you going to kill tomorrow night?
Ace - um...I'll kill LucasWoj!
Scamp - ok well when Lucas shows up dead I'll let you know!

2 problems already fucks the Agent over:
I die immediately because Scamp knows the truth and kills me.
I survive till the next day but Lucas doesn't die unless I get super lucky. If he doesn't I'm killed. The best I could do is roleclaim to the town that I'm an NKVD agent and found Scamp.
Scamp of course says he's also an NKVD Agent and was undercover also.

How do you sort through the liars? Even worse - what if Scamp really is an NKVD agent.

Come on, I know what I'm talking about here. You guys are assuming the Rebels are so dumb as not to ask 2 simple questions which would destroy any NKVD agent without a lot of information ahead of time.

Assuming NKVD agents contact their checks and never confirm townies to tell what's going on, sure. But replay the same scenario involving 2 Ukranians. Moreover, an early check has NO prior kills, and the 'killed last night' will always be " i checked you, silly".
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Zato-1
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Chile4253 Posts
July 29 2009 21:05 GMT
#258
On July 30 2009 05:53 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 05:37 L wrote:
\

As for Ace's last post: you've essentially summed up why our DTs are going to want to play rebel (ALL OF THEM). If we can make it very hard for mafia to team up, we force mafia self-killing. Any NKVD agent that gets into a ring gains a huge amount of information, and our risk/reward goes from 1 NKVD:1Ukranian to 1NKVD:1Ring. The slower mafia play, and the more information they gather, the more we would want our DTs rolling rebel. The only possible shit-scenario would be NKVD finding each other, but that's where people need to bust out their behavioral analysis hats and get to work.



come on L, let's be serious here. In fact assume I'm a Ukrainian Rebel and you're an NKVD agent. do you REALLY think you'd ever successfully convince me you really are a Rebel and that you could get me to give up information about what I know and then get me lynched?

The plan only works assuming our enemies are completely fucking stupid. I'm not playing the game based on that because it's an epic fail. Watch the NKVD agents all try it and all die. I guarantee it if the Rebels are even half competent.

Pretty much. The only upside I'm seeing right now to having NKVD pose as Ukrainians, is that if a Ukrainian RCs an agent he will contact him and kill him after finding out he was a fake, giving the agent time to get out the word that a certain rebel contacted him and getting a rebel for an agent trade (rather than the ukrainian getting conscript as the answer to his RC, and killing the agent anyway).

Not worth screwing over the efficacy of our agents, imo. Better to be certain when they get a rebel hit in their RCs.

On a completely unrelated issue- can a 'dead' player still post after he got killed, such as saying "oh guys, before I died I got a PM from player X, it said such and such"?
Go here http://vina.biobiochile.cl/ and input the Konami Code (up up down down left right left right B A)
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 29 2009 21:07 GMT
#259
On July 30 2009 05:56 L wrote:
There won't be networks if all the NKVD are posing as rebels. That's the entire point. By the time ukranians can successfully check themselves, we'll be on day 3 and their time limit will be blowing by. Similarly, Ace's theory that a Ukranian can ask for prior kill and future kill is substantially harmed by the fact that the prior kill doesn't exist due to the fact that the "Rebel" used a check the night before, and that a medic can catch the following hit. If any of that 'luck' happens, we have 2 ukranians who essentially kill themselves for us.


BANG! Got ya. And if the "Rebel" used a check the Night before why would the real Rebel even entertain the thought of talking to him since he can't be confirmed?

^_^

See, I'm always right. Just accept it.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 29 2009 21:08 GMT
#260
[QUOTE]On July 30 2009 06:05 Zato-1 wrote:
[QUOTE]On July 30 2009 05:53 Ace wrote:
[QUOTE]On July 30 2009 05:37 L wrote:
\

As for Ace's last post: you've essentially summed up why our DTs are going to want to play rebel (ALL OF THEM). If we can make it very hard for mafia to team up, we force mafia self-killing. Any NKVD agent that gets into a ring gains a huge amount of information, and our risk/reward goes from 1 NKVD:1Ukranian to 1NKVD:1Ring. The slower mafia play, and the more information they gather, the more we would want our DTs rolling rebel. The only possible shit-scenario would be NKVD finding each other, but that's where people need to bust out their behavioral analysis hats and get to work. [/QUOTE]



On a completely unrelated issue- can a 'dead' player still post after he got killed, such as saying "oh guys, before I died I got a PM from player X, it said such and such"?[/QUOTE]

Generally, no. Anything he wants to say has to be said before he dies, otherwise it could completely change the pace of the game.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
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