I notice that in the sign ups, Plexa said the assassin's can't attack on Day 1, but that's not in the first post here. Doesn't really matter since I doubt we'll have assassin worthy suspects on Day 1, so Sunny is probably not a good idea.
I think Snow will actually not be that helpful this early because getting twice as many Day 1 clues is probably not going to be that helpful. We don't know how Plexa is doing clues either... KP is... holy fuck 5! So I guess that means at least 5 clues per day post and Snow probably doubles that? Maybe Snow just adds a constant number or multiplies the clue number by less than 2, who knows... OK nvm, we wouldn't get more Day 1 clues but Day 2 clues so this could be pretty helpful.
Foggy weather is a decent choice. I guess we don't know what the ratio of mafia to pledge is but we might be able to figure it out if we use this. But with such a high KP, it might be great to have a guaranteed KP drop. We might want an early vote check though, depending on how voting looks.
Rain is also great. Although the suicide bomber is unlikely to attack at the start, we only have 2 medics for a ~40 person game (compare to my game which had 3 for a ~30 person game) so a boost would help a lot and up the deterrent power of a medic list.
More clues don't necessarily help - they often cause people to become suspicious in ways that the clue writer hadn't predicted at all. 5 KP is a ton so I think we should work on lessening that unless we figure out Plexa's clue writing style (has he run a game before? If so, definitely post about his writing style if you were in it). I would guess there are 2-6 pledges, so that would mean fog would drop KP by 0-1... OK, I think that means there have to be at least 4 Pledges because otherwise Fog wouldn't even lower KP on Day 1. So here's the math:
Fog: KP is 4 with a 2/38 chance of blocking another hit.
Rain: KP is 5 with a 4/38 chance of blocking a hit.
Obviously the chance is much higher than random if the medic is skilled and a list is used well. I would go with Fog unless we are sure we want to vote check and Rain if we do want to vote check.