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I'm here and I have my role! I'm thinking about weather options now.
I notice that in the sign ups, Plexa said the assassin's can't attack on Day 1, but that's not in the first post here. Doesn't really matter since I doubt we'll have assassin worthy suspects on Day 1, so Sunny is probably not a good idea.
I think Snow will actually not be that helpful this early because getting twice as many Day 1 clues is probably not going to be that helpful. We don't know how Plexa is doing clues either... KP is... holy fuck 5! So I guess that means at least 5 clues per day post and Snow probably doubles that? Maybe Snow just adds a constant number or multiplies the clue number by less than 2, who knows... OK nvm, we wouldn't get more Day 1 clues but Day 2 clues so this could be pretty helpful.
Foggy weather is a decent choice. I guess we don't know what the ratio of mafia to pledge is but we might be able to figure it out if we use this. But with such a high KP, it might be great to have a guaranteed KP drop. We might want an early vote check though, depending on how voting looks.
Rain is also great. Although the suicide bomber is unlikely to attack at the start, we only have 2 medics for a ~40 person game (compare to my game which had 3 for a ~30 person game) so a boost would help a lot and up the deterrent power of a medic list.
DECISION CALCULUS:
More clues don't necessarily help - they often cause people to become suspicious in ways that the clue writer hadn't predicted at all. 5 KP is a ton so I think we should work on lessening that unless we figure out Plexa's clue writing style (has he run a game before? If so, definitely post about his writing style if you were in it). I would guess there are 2-6 pledges, so that would mean fog would drop KP by 0-1... OK, I think that means there have to be at least 4 Pledges because otherwise Fog wouldn't even lower KP on Day 1. So here's the math:
Fog: KP is 4 with a 2/38 chance of blocking another hit.
Rain: KP is 5 with a 4/38 chance of blocking a hit.
Obviously the chance is much higher than random if the medic is skilled and a list is used well. I would go with Fog unless we are sure we want to vote check and Rain if we do want to vote check.
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On July 03 2009 03:35 Chezinu wrote:Summary so far: If we go with fog we live longer which will enable more lynches down the road, but we wouldn't be able to role check, which doesn't even matter: Show nested quote +You may PM me asking about the number of Mafia who voted for a particular person to be lynched (not elected) three times total If we go with snow we get more clues, especially since day 1 clues are usually weak. I don't think rain would be a good option right now since the angels wouldn't really know who to protect. Sunny weather would be pointless because we don't have any suspects yet.
The angels should know to protect good players so they don't disappear before they have a chance to contribute.
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Good players that should be on a medic list include but are not limited to:
MrBabyHands
BloodyC0bbler
BWDero
Bockit
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I support BC for Emperor and his analysis on fog is spot on. We should spam Fog unless we think we can do something tricky with vote checks but since only pledges show up on that, we should just spam fog and pocket the auto kill power.
However, notice that the KP goes to the "ceiling" if it is not a whole number. This means if there are 3 or fewer pledges, KP won't even drop. Example:
3 Pledges means their KP contribution is 1.5. Half of that is .75 so fog would lower overall Mafia KP from 5 to 4.25, which gets rounded up to 5 if I understand the rules right. This means if there are 3 Pledges,.fog is useless to us until we kill a mafioso, so that the KP would drop from 4.5 to 3.75 due to fog. That is why I guessed there are at least 4 pledges, but it may be that Plexa has engineered the game so we are not to spam fog, but to time our fog usage to when Mafia KP is barely above a whole number so that we can lower it below that number.
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@BC
Ah yeah, it has to be 4.5 rounded up and getting the idea of how many pledges there are will be great, too. There's no way there's only one pledge if the suicide bomber is one of the pledges so VOTE FOG, EVERYBODY. PERIOD.
@inertinept
Will you make it past the first night for the first time in three games?!?! OvO 
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On July 03 2009 08:19 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Also note:
DT's
Last thread Plexa made it clear in the last thread that a player if checked by a DT flip their original colour (ie emperor flips as whatever his role was before election, dt flips as dt, mafia flips as mafia) only exception being the godfather. Checks can also be used at any point in the day. So, by that meaning.
Dts should automatically be checking
Myself, ie BloodyC0bbler
and mrbabyhands
If we flip as town, immediately contact us. ALSO there are two you. so there is the risk that you double check on one of us but still that pays off as we get 2 dts immediately working together. THEY can act right now, IE before the mafia can act.
So check me first, get me into office and we go from there. The power of dts in this game is absolutely insane, as only one role is fliped incorrectly. They also can act day 1.
I wouldn't be surprised if you and/or MBH is godfather, I know the godfather usually isn't chosen as randomly as advertised and you two would be prime candidates so... Obviously they should be checking whoever gets elected and MBH is too dangerous not to check but I dunno about immediate contact.
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Trying to figure if it is worth it for GF to run for office... if they get caught mafia loses a KP but the town still loses 3 lynches. With a good player though, they might not even get caught and I don't want a repeat of Qatol's Godfather Mayor reign and we don't need to be run astray. BC's leading the town in the right direction weather-wise so he's probably ok but good players would never try to lead the town astray this early anyway. Can't say shit about MBH because that wily mofo never gives anything to analyze
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On July 03 2009 08:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2009 08:27 Plexa wrote:On July 03 2009 08:19 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Also note:
DT's
Last thread Plexa made it clear in the last thread that a player if checked by a DT flip their original colour (ie emperor flips as whatever his role was before election, dt flips as dt, mafia flips as mafia) only exception being the godfather. Checks can also be used at any point in the day. So, by that meaning.
Dts should automatically be checking
Myself, ie BloodyC0bbler
and mrbabyhands
If we flip as town, immediately contact us. ALSO there are two you. so there is the risk that you double check on one of us but still that pays off as we get 2 dts immediately working together. THEY can act right now, IE before the mafia can act.
So check me first, get me into office and we go from there. The power of dts in this game is absolutely insane, as only one role is fliped incorrectly. They also can act day 1. Just to clarify here BC, the check will only tell you whether the person is mafia or not. Will not say that the person is a DT or that the person is the suicide bomber. My bad. Will it tell you if a suicide bomber is red though? Ie dt checks bomber, bomber gets a yes to being mafia? If not edit your bomber role to state that. Still, it stands to let you know if whoever you check is legit or not. The sooner a dt checks the sooner an alliance can form, the chances of hitting the gf this early are way to low, and as the roles were just recently sent out, mafia will still be disorganized, one dt should be checking me instantly.
Pretty sure the check says if they are red or not and GF is the only one that the DT gets fooled on (no millers).
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On July 03 2009 10:12 ydg wrote:
I disagree with spamming fog, but I agree that fog should be used day one.
List checking is one of the most effective tools, and, as pledges can only be found via list checks, if we spam fog, we will have no sure way of hitting pledge as opposed to hitting regular mafia.
Pledges show under alignment checks too, pretty sure on that
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On July 03 2009 11:30 Ace wrote:
I vote for Elemenope
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"I will run for emperor, largely to split the vote and give us at the very least solid lists to check."
From Mystic rules:
"You may PM me asking about the number of Mafia who voted for a particular person to be lynched (not elected) three times total."
...
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Also, mafia can fake vote list checks because they know how many mafia vote for each person...
Also, you correctly said that the DT need to role check important people Day 1 before Cover is possible... so why would we do anything other than Fog Day 1 when DTs should be using alignment check instead of vote list check (which they can't use Day 1).
I dunno how intentional these mistakes are but it doesn't look like anything someone should
Pyrry Says: vote BloodyC0bbler unless he comes up red today because he's the best player running and, at the very least, he understands (this should be obvious) that taking anything other than the guaranteed KP lowering at this point is stupid.
See this thing? If you're green, TURN IT ON!
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On July 03 2009 11:50 L wrote:
Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached.
They don't necessarily give any information, especially if someone's platform is to run just to put another name on the ballot. If anything, that spreads things out and makes it easier to mafia to alter the voting with less effort.
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On July 03 2009 11:50 Incognito wrote:
L did you read the rules????
Also wtf is that graph for...
It basically means "your trolling isn't funny".
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On July 03 2009 12:24 L wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2009 12:03 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On July 03 2009 11:50 L wrote:
Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached. They don't necessarily give any information, especially if someone's platform is to run just to put another name on the ballot. If anything, that spreads things out and makes it easier to mafia to alter the voting with less effort. The platform isn't simply putting another name on the ballot, but that's the only concrete benefit we get out of another person running. I've already outlined my basic gameplan as emp, but all of that is subject to change if we get lucky hits, lose a fuckton of blues, a bunch of people play retardedly, etc. I really shy away from making predictions which aren't mathematically probable, and that's why i'm not going to try and lock myself into a certain mode of play. My preferred mode would be the one I listed, but you can go back up and read it.
Alright, I understand your plan a little better now with your further explanation / clarification. It's something to consider but, like you say, a lot could go wrong. Fog spam, though not fancy, is pretty sturdy and will help us win the game if we just play better than the mafia.
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Don't forget that proper list checks require high activity and total compliance and no game has ever had full activity (not even ones that have more checks against inactivity than this one does) plus every game has townies that fuck around.
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Well, not much else to talk about until day post / voting thread, I guess.
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All was quiet in the town of Liquiville. The sleepy town had never been one which dabbled in the troubles of bigger cities and was content to live a simple country life. The moon was high in the sky with the light filtering through the windows of the village folk when the silence was broken by a shrill sharp yell. Confused, two of the village folk went out to investigate the strange noises. Their search lead them to the Emperor’s Palace, a find they wished they could just forget.
As they stepped through the gates they saw a sight which resembled a bloody battle. The bodyguards were strung up on lines like a human clothes line. Blood spilling from their gored bodies and pooling on the ground. The two forced themselves to continue on, for the sake of the town. They tread through the blood and into the inner palace. Little did Camlito and Ace know that this foolish move would be their last. As they entered, a bomb went off to their right, sending a pillar crashing down on top of the poor innocent townies. Both were flattened into human pancakes.
The events at the Palace were not yet through for the night. Plexa, the Emperor, had heard the noises, seen his Bodyguards brutally tortured and murdered and heard the explosion down stairs. He knew that whoever the intruders were, they were after him. Fortunately Plexa’s Palace was well equipped with hiding places after his Uncle’s erratic fear of giant spiders. It was not difficult for him to completely conceal his presence in the room.
Two men were rummaging around in a room nearby, where exactly he could not tell. The sounds came closer and closer and very soon they were in the same room as him. He saw two men; one tall and lanky, the other carrying an explosive device. Their plan became immediate to him, they were going to blow his palace up with him inside. The two began setting the device while Plexa buried himself in his hiding place.
“Wait” said one of them. Plexa heard footsteps, he heard gun load, he felt the cold of the barrel up against the back of his neck. The man pulled the trigger. The Emperor was dead.
Dawn broke, and the cry of the countless vultures overhead woke the villagers from their slumber. The smell of death filled the air and immediately they all knew their quiet little village would stay quiet no longer. Amongst the ruins of the Palace the village found the body of their beloved Emperor as well as the bodies of his fallen guards. There was a note posted on the town gallows which read “We will not rest until every last villagers is dead. You will all pay for what you have done to me”. The town was confused at this note, but knew what they must do. A new Emperor must be elected, one prepared to fight the Mafia insurgence and save the town from brutal slaughter.
I bolded some passages I thought might be clue-related. Also, Plexa is buried underground when found and some how a mafia is able to put a gun to the back of his neck while he's under? I have to go to work in 10 so I won't have a chance to look through profiles or anything for hours.
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This has gotta be the least active game ever  nothing has really happened in the last 6 hours. I guess JeeJee started running and Heavonearth finally gave a platform but meh. Not good for town.
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I mean I could try to do more clue analysis, but that would just make things worse I reckon. Qatol would like it tho .
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EPT![[image loading]](http://files.getdropbox.com/u/51715/hurr.png)
![[image loading]](http://files.getdropbox.com/u/51715/fogstorm.jpg)
