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On May 16 2009 15:00 L wrote:
Okay. So L is going to do some math because that's what L does.
So we have 30 total people, 1 traitor, 6 mafia total, 23 town. Mafia essentially have 7 total voting power maximum, so town auto-loses when they're under 6 people. In the worst possible scenario, mafia kill 3 per day + 1 mislynch (lets ignore double lynches b/c i'm lazy).
Essentially townie numbers go
23-Current
19-Tomorrow
15-Next day
11-Day 4
7-Day 5
Add in a missed vig hit or missed double lynches and we can be out of the game by day 5. We're essentially obligated to hit correctly on day 2 or 3 or we're in the shitter. We can't fuck around and pretend that day 2-3 are clue gathering days and that we can float until day 4 and suddenly start knocking people out.
What does this mean? ACTIVITY. Don't have anything to say? Think of something. If 5 pages go by and you haven't said anything you are fucking the down in the butt.
I have a feeling people have been a postin' so ima post this, read and then post s'more.
L BRAH, YOU AINT COUNTING IN MEDIC PROTECTION AND VETS.
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On May 17 2009 01:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2009 15:00 L wrote:
Okay. So L is going to do some math because that's what L does.
So we have 30 total people, 1 traitor, 6 mafia total, 23 town. Mafia essentially have 7 total voting power maximum, so town auto-loses when they're under 6 people. In the worst possible scenario, mafia kill 3 per day + 1 mislynch (lets ignore double lynches b/c i'm lazy).
Essentially townie numbers go
23-Current
19-Tomorrow
15-Next day
11-Day 4
7-Day 5
Add in a missed vig hit or missed double lynches and we can be out of the game by day 5. We're essentially obligated to hit correctly on day 2 or 3 or we're in the shitter. We can't fuck around and pretend that day 2-3 are clue gathering days and that we can float until day 4 and suddenly start knocking people out.
What does this mean? ACTIVITY. Don't have anything to say? Think of something. If 5 pages go by and you haven't said anything you are fucking the down in the butt.
I have a feeling people have been a postin' so ima post this, read and then post s'more. L BRAH, YOU AINT COUNTING IN MEDIC PROTECTION AND VETS.
Nor did he count the extra votes from the mayor. Still I would say those factors give town no more than 2 days beyond what L posted.
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On May 17 2009 01:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2009 15:00 L wrote:
Okay. So L is going to do some math because that's what L does.
So we have 30 total people, 1 traitor, 6 mafia total, 23 town. Mafia essentially have 7 total voting power maximum, so town auto-loses when they're under 6 people. In the worst possible scenario, mafia kill 3 per day + 1 mislynch (lets ignore double lynches b/c i'm lazy).
Essentially townie numbers go
23-Current
19-Tomorrow
15-Next day
11-Day 4
7-Day 5
Add in a missed vig hit or missed double lynches and we can be out of the game by day 5. We're essentially obligated to hit correctly on day 2 or 3 or we're in the shitter. We can't fuck around and pretend that day 2-3 are clue gathering days and that we can float until day 4 and suddenly start knocking people out.
What does this mean? ACTIVITY. Don't have anything to say? Think of something. If 5 pages go by and you haven't said anything you are fucking the down in the butt.
I have a feeling people have been a postin' so ima post this, read and then post s'more. L BRAH, YOU AINT COUNTING IN MEDIC PROTECTION AND VETS.
He was calculating the WORST CASE SCENARIO. In such a case, the town lynches all of the vets and the medics never protect anyone.
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On May 16 2009 22:53 Showtime! wrote:
Cause and effect my friend!
There's a reason behind everything. To the naked eye some of the stuff I do might look sloppy, but I assure you there is a rational explanation for what I do.
I was going to make a blog about my posting behaviour between every game so players could get further insight into what I was thinking and how I pulled other players strings. Then I realized it would take far too long unless I kept an up-to-date dairy of every move I made.
Make no mistake, in a Mayor role there will be no confusion.
As I mentioned before, the last post was with regards to my skills I used from previous games. My strengths far outweigh any weakness I may have. Plus the Pardoner is there for a reason. Heck you even said it yourself.
I don't think there's any question that you are a smart player - but so are most of the people in this game. I think Mynock is more worried about your playing style not meshing well with holding office and the responsibilty to the town that comes with it. Not sure how valid a concern that is; if asked to describe your playing style I would probably say "unorthodox."
I also have my own personal reservations; are you playing the mole again  ?
Like L said, perhaps the primary benefit of town having a pardoner is simply that the pardoner isn't mafia. We have 1 candidate openly claiming that he wants that position. It's strange, but I don't think it points strongly to being innocent nor guilty. It's safe to bet that at least one of our candidates is red.
The candidates thus far: (at least from my naive perspective  )
Ver: strong clue/behavior analyzer. says he doesn't want to die early (but who does?).
Caller: urges us not to bandwagon. good player, are his skills up to par with Ver's?
BC: wants to be pardoner, based on his self professed skill in clue analysis.
Showtime: cryptic as usual, but certainly above average in terms of playing skill. is always a priority target for the reds, which is noteworthy imo.
Mynock: also does not want to die early and has never held office before. policy of 'complete transparency.' Is he good at clue/behavior analyzing? Not sure tbh, but he is usually a voice of reason, probably a good leader.
Nemy: doesn't want to die early... clearly there are not enough medics.
to note: tension between showtime/mynock, mikeymoo backs mynock.
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My own views:
The candidates thus far:
Ver: extremely strong behavior analyzer. He says he doesn't want to die on night 1 AGAIN, but I think that's only happened once, when he was mafia.
Caller: urges us not to bandwagon. More of a "fun" player than a "good" one (not to say he isn't the latter, but he clearly plays the game more for enjoyment).
BC: wants to be pardoner, based on his self professed skill in clue analysis. That's odd.
Showtime: From past experience, he can really screw with mafia, both intentionally and unintentionally. It just works out that way for him. He also screws up the town though.
Mynock: Solid platform. His intentions seem good.
Nemy: Not really running.
to note: tension between showtime/mynock, mikeymoo backs mynock.
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That was after reading infundumbilum's post. A few things are different, namely Ver being good at clue analyzing (he's stated the direct opposite in the past) and Caller.
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On May 17 2009 01:52 LucasWoJ wrote:
That was after reading infundumbilum's post. A few things are different, namely Ver being good at clue analyzing (he's stated the direct opposite in the past) and Caller.
gee thanks lol
By the way, is it just me, or has Ace not done anything yet?
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On May 17 2009 01:52 LucasWoJ wrote:
infundumbilum
clever
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come to think of it Plexa hasn't done anything either. Maybe they didn't get up yet? Or...?
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On May 16 2009 23:44 LucasWoJ wrote:From past experience, I say "Don't listen to malongo in the least bit until the night right before either side wins." Let's do that this time around. Out of curiosity (and I haven't read the posts below yours yet: I'm just responding as I go), why Caller?
he just hates me for wasting that vig hit last game
kekekekekeke
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So as of now we have
Ver
Mynock
Showtime
Caller
Myself and myself running
two of us would prefer pardoner, the other 3 either or.
Ver has an early lead, which would most likely be due to his playstyle, caller has one vote from ver, and showtime with nothing.
Mynock has a few votes, i have nothing.
This leaves Ver and Mynock atm as the two who stand to be elected and showtime! in this case, have said, they are running off a strength behavioural analysis, which although is a good strength, both elected officials based off the same skills are not entirely useful. Let alone the fact they, in the past have preferred to sit in inner circles than speak openly, which is a horrible way to do things.
now, as of the last game I played in, I was sheriff. As the primary elect that game, I did what I will do this game, Openly analyze clues, and link the best possible people for the night posts given. This requires me to me in the public eye of the town at all times, which is what is needed in the elected roles.
Also, before voting for showtime or mynock, please consider the game of mine that just recently ended. The only behavioural analyzers out in force were for the red side, and the town completely to dry in that area, however, town had an amazing clue analyzer (although he was ignored) which could have changed the game entirely.
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By the way, I would urge some caution towards candidates that have put their hats into the ring later than others (read: Showtime!, Mynock, etc.) as it is possible that the mafia is not very organized this round.
That being said, here's what I have to think about the candidates:
Ver: Strong player, pretty good at reading what other people are doing. Also capable of thinking outside of the box, which is always a good thing to have in a mayoral capacity.
Mynock: I never know what he's doing, which could be a good or a bad thing. When he's town he acts scummy, when he's scum he acts towny. This could be both good and bad-good in the sense that he knows what mafia may be thinking, bad because town has no idea what he's thinking.
Showtime!: Despite his trolling, he's actually quite an active player behind the scenes. He loves the backstage more than the limelight, and thus I think it may be a good idea to put him in as one of the town roles. However, he has no experience in the mayoral position/pardoner, and I don't like the way he appears to be condescending this game against Mynock...
BC: BC is a good player, but I dunno why he wants Pardoner, it's a bit sketchy for me. Unless he's a blue or something, but then he's making it way too obvious for mafia, in which case we sort of have no choice but to vote him in to keep him safe.
Caller: This guy is totally scum, lynch him as soon as you can! He's also a terrible candidate and doesn't know the meaning of secrecy if it dropped a cloak on him!
XD
edit for bolds
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Hey Guys,
I'm running for mayor. I have nothing to offer. Absolutely nothing. In fact, I suspect I'll make a terrible mayor. Therefore, I ask that everyone vote for me. Please do.
I feel that now would be the most opportune moment to say something everyone ignores: L is mafia. I'll be voting to lynch him every day from now.
Lastly, I suspect that Ver is not, but, of course, it is far too premature to matter. If he is not, then it seems to me that that propitiates the town's ability to win. So yeah, I'm tentatively thinking about perhaps voting for Ver.
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I was actually not doing anything because I was playing DOTA all night 
As for me, I'll announce my intention to be Mayor/Pardoner now.
Besides the fact that I know I'm great at this game, know how to look at the big picture, and know how to read (^_^) let me just point out one more thing:
I have the best SAVIOR sense out of anyone in the game. Easily.
What this means is I can easily spot a bs bandwagon for an innocent player and follow the trail to mafia, or in other cases explain how a person is innocent or why they shouldn't die.
In game 2 when the town wanted to lynch Ghar I professed he was most likely innocent - and he was.
In the game where BC got the Village Idiot role and convinced people to lynch mikeymoo who was it that rose to his defense so strongly? me. Because I saw the true meaning behind the scenario.
Remember last game? How I once again jumped to JeeJee's defense even though there was "evidence" and a big ass bandwagon against him? Yup, JeeJee was innocent too.
How about that time in Tracil's game when I was a medic and saved NatsuTerran(the cop) on Day one with only 1 read of the game and no PMs? ^_^
See guys, I'm good at behavior analysis and seeing the game as one big puzzle. I don't jump to conclusions, I play with my head on straight, and I ALWAYS have a plan. Always. Oh yeah, and I'm usually persuasive.
Right now the only candidate I think is right for the town is Mynock. Every game we've played we have been on the exact same page. He thinks just like I do and has an intuition for when there's bullshit afoot. However, Ver and BC would just as well get my vote if that were the only reason. So why then? Read his post: he is the only one that pointed out that the Mayor and Pardoner really are not that different.Whoever is running should be glad to get either so that once they are protected they can do some damage and not just sit around bulletproof. Both of those roles are powerful and the town needs them to win.
With all that said, I'm hoping enough people vote for me. We all know how dangerous I can be in office to The Mafia.
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Awesome, now I really have no idea who to vote for.
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Wow. So many candidates running for office and almost all of them strong players from previous games.
Right now, I'm voting for Ver, because, as everyone has said, it's common sense to try to place good behavioral/clue analyzers into office, and Ver is definitely good enough at behavior analysis to merit bodyguard protection. He also has a history of being able to work very fast, which (as L demonstrated in his worst-case scenario) is even more important in a game of this size. On the other hand, it should also be easy to spot if he's Mafia, if the town starts hemorrhaging blue roles.
I would also like to ask, not just the candidates but the town in general, if anyone has any ideas for possible plans for the town. Now that Mafia can hit fellow Mafia, it's plain that we can't even use the strategy of people claiming they took a hit on Night One or medics roleclaiming to the person they saved. While it's highly unlikely that Mafia will sacrifice one of their own so early on the hopes that they might be saved by a medic, I think it's something to keep in mind. They might also use this ability to try and masquerade as a vigilante later in the game.
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@ Lucas: I believe Ver died day one in Chuiu's last game (TL Mafia 5) when he was hit three times.
Ace has been playing DOTA all night, but he posts right after the day post and has posted other places in the forum (Like in Pyrr's signup thread). Interesting.
We already have 6 votes for Ver for mayor. And one of them is from Caller, who says we should avoid bandwagons. Although his vote for Ver was early and may not be part of a bandwagon attempt, I'd like to simply point out that fact so that perhaps people (like Caller) may see the need to re-evaluate their votes. As for me I'm still undecided. And also wondering why some other people are not active/not running for office.
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Honestly dreamflower, that doesn't bother me in the least. My specialty is in analyzing clues, as such, after a few days, all mafia will have at least 1-2 clues pointed towards them. Obviously the more the better, BUT, it allows me to spot clues and link people.
Also, mafia killing one of their own then claiming vigi, is not in their best interests, as it puts them on the radar for further clue analysis meaning if we see another clue as obvious pointing at them, its game over. And the GF faking it would be a huge loss to their team.
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As for Day One clues, even though I know they're vague and untrustworthy, the only ones that I could find that seem most likely to point to Mafia are:
1. LTT getting bowled into by something and knocked into the water. I thought it was especially interesting that it said "something" bowled into him, not "someone." Maybe a weapon or object pushed/thrown by the attacker?
2. Qatol being unable to locate his attacker, then seeing a blur as he's stabbed. This suggests someone who is very fast, and possibly either indistinct or very small.
Everything else looks to me like LTT and Qatol were having fun with the writing.
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@BC: That's true; I hadn't thought about the clue analysis part. I only mentioned the vigilante aspect because I remember some plans involving confirming vigilantes floating around in previous games.
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EPT
