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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On May 20 2009 06:33 BloodyC0bbler wrote: neither ver or ace look like they are red. I agree here. If anything, Ace is most likely traitor at best. So I don't understand why both of y'alls are at each others throats. Those of you incriminating Ver here, just read what you type, PLEASE. Assuming you're town, that is... | ||
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0cz3c
United States564 Posts
On May 20 2009 06:05 Ace wrote: He's not a confirmed DT stop saying that nonsense. Ok. I get what you're saying. To the gallows with Nemy! | ||
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On May 20 2009 06:37 0cz3c wrote: Ok. I get what you're saying. To the gallows with Nemy! lol | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
On May 20 2009 06:33 BloodyC0bbler wrote: neither ver or ace look like they are red. Please explain. Someone of your stature should post more than "uhhhh I don't think so-and-so is red." Look at the recent events man. That shit doesn't add up. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On May 20 2009 06:49 Showtime! wrote: Please explain. Someone of your stature should post more than "uhhhh I don't think so-and-so is red." Look at the recent events man. That shit doesn't add up. I have no reason to state my analysis yet mr mafia, as well, without one more day its useless. Regardless, Ace is being too bulldoggish, at best making him traitor, but deff not a mafia play, nor is ver's style, as Ver is playing much like he does as town alligned. Mynock, and showtime are the two candidates from the elections who have a potential of red. Nemy is a retarded dt at best. Also, if ace is Traitor(doubtful at this point He is most likely green) mbh will be same colour as otherwise ace wouldn't auto pardon him if near lynched, or mbh trying to get him lynched, etc.. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
Makes me think your town aligned. Which means, mafia kills 1 if not both elected officials tonight. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
 I can't auto spot if MBH is mafia, likewise he can't do the same to me no matter how much he tries to convince you all. The reason I'd auto Pardon him on a Day 1 lynch from Ver isn't because I know he's green but because I'm not sure he's mafia- hence I wouldn't want to risk losing a powerful player so early. ^_^ | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
So lets examine our situation, shall we? Town has no fucking leadership. I am going to be the town's leadership then. Here is my plan: Tonight we lynch Ace, the vigilante hits Ver or vice versa. Why? Examine the content of their posts until now: For all their crowing about their own worth as players, neither has clue analysed or done anything except the following: Turn on each other post-elections. Both recognize office likely has a mafia installed. Both only really tried to drive the point home after they were actually 'safe' in office. What does that tell me? If I was either of them and we had secured our spot, I'd look at what the town is saying. Town is saying that its obvious that there's a mafia all up ins office, so if we're both mafia, might as well limit the damage by coming out hard against the other person there. Develop red herrings after the primary objective is complete. Is this consistent with the voting records and the style of play both players have been using? YES. Ace has been using an emotional style of writing and making huge logical missteps. He's been asking questions to answers he already knows and pretty much acting obtuse when the conclusions supported start to point against him. No real logical defence. No real arguments. Well, until now at least, Ace will have to reply to this. Ver? Well, I'll let the thread speak for itself. Reneg on campaign promises, don't consult the town for a lynch target despite people asking to vote on it, admission he's talking in PMs with ace about shit like this already and has some wacky underground network going on. Lets examine the clues: 2 possibilities. One is that we only have 3 mafia represented. The other is that we have all 6 mentioned, but some have only 1 line attached to them. This would be consistent with a few games. If that's the case, there are multiple pointers towards Ace, Dreamflower and Ver. Go and Wikipedia ACE. It is a hardware company based in the united states. This is why I suggested that google.com be used instead of google.country. google.ca gives me the canadian association of electricians or some shit. There's quite a bit more solid evidence here, but tbh I'd rather get this post out as activity picks up rather than after the bangwagon has been formed. Now, lets move forward and examine voting records. Ace - 6 ------- 0cz3c <-- from Ver Ver <-- from Caller Malongo <-- from Fishball mikeymoo <-- from Mynock MrBabyHands HeavOnEarth <-- from Abstain Scamp <-- from nemY Bockit <-- from Mynock Mynock < -- from Ver Ver <-- from Showtime! Tricode <-- from Mynock EVERYONE but 1 changed? Both MYNOCK AND VER, two people I've been pointing at changed to swing nemY out? Wow, no suspicion here, right? Malongo was pretty succinct about this last game: If you're a townie, you really don't need to switch your vote ever. This is why I suggested people wait: get all the facts coming out before making a choice rather than swinging vote totals around. This rule CAN be abrogated at times, but like.. 5/6? Seriously guys? Tricode is the finishing slot here: why the fuck is he switching members then claiming that nemY is most likely a dt, but that he played bad. Time for some Ace-like in between paragraph expletives: WHAT THE FUCK. Ver - 8 This is Ver's list. Ver is mafia. Mynock popping up on the top there. Dreamflower, heavily under suspicion now, also up there as a bandwagon starter. Lucas voted for Ver when it was obvious he would win, and suggests he trusted him -> role reveal after election. ------- BloodyC0bbler Caller Scaramanga Mynock 0cz3c dreamflower RebirthOfLeGenD Vivi57 iNfuNdiBuLuM Incognito <-- from Showtime Malongo <-- from Ace LucasWoJ <-- from Mynock More importantly, in contrast with Ace's crowd, this voting block is relatively unchanged. People who voted Ver stayed Ver. What does this mean if Ver is mafia? What does this mean if Ver is innocent? Which brings me to my next point: Information. Say we fuck up a lynch. Between Ace and Ver I see nearly zero difference in terms of the quality of information gained upon kill, but either one would give us a mountain's worth in total. Why? Well, its fairly obvious, both are positioned very interestingly in terms of votes and in terms of their actions taken in the thread. If we find out what colour the flip, it tells us a lot about the other people in this drama. My final point has to do with timing: Why hit Ace over Ver tonight? The simplest answer? Because I don't trust the vig to hit the one we aren't lynching. Ace is the pardoner. If he is mafia and we elect to hit him and dreamflower and both turn up red, he is going to pardon dreamflower. If dreamflower is green? he's going to pardon dreamflower OR ANYONE ELSE who's been voted for lynching when he dies. Why? We're going to spend the next turn killing them regardless. -1 lynch. -time. +kp. That's not what we want. Simply put: We cannot lynch the pardoner during a double, ever or safely double lynch until he's dead, and we need to start double lynching asap because time is against us and we NEED to cut their KP. Time is ALWAYS against town. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
Ver - 8 ------- BloodyC0bbler Caller | ||
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Malongo
Chile3469 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Let's assume I am the Mafia Pardoner and dreamflower is obviously mafia and is about to be lynched: why the fuck would I pardon him? That would just confirm to the town I'm surely guilty. As for the rest of your post there really isn't a need to respond. Even your wikipedia link (LOL) is sketchy - of all the things Ace could be linked to it seems like you searched long and hard to find that one specific thing to pin to me which is false evidence. Try again sherlock. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
Keep the fuck up. If you're a mafia pardoner ANY lynch of you during double is an autopardon. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
In other news: Lynch Ace, vote for Double Lynch | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On May 19 2009 13:59 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Questions that may be impossible or improbable to answer: 1. Who knew the BG roles? Ver, Ace, or both? A third party? 2. Was it dumb luck? 3. If not luck, then what is motivation for the act? Who benefits? OK. In this post I will operate under the assumption that it was not luck that both bodyguards were hit in the same night. This because such an act is very very unlikely, though the possibility does exist. So it comes that the bodyguards must have been in PM contact with at least one person. Out of the people in this game, here is who I would expect to have good chances of having been in contact with the bodyguards, based on past player circles and current info: LucasWoJ 1. Ver (as he is the mayor) 2. mikeymoo 3. 0cz3c - his brother. 4. Incognito - we know this from PMs posted publicly (alliteration ftw). 5. Scaramanga. 6. Ace (as he is the pardoner) Mikeymoo 1. LucasWoJ 2. BC 3. Camlito 4. Ver or Ace (as explained above) 5. Scaramanga Out of these possibilities we can rule out some quickly. LucasWoJ, if we are to believe Incognito, thought Ver was the traitor. So Lucas roleclaiming to Ver seems unlikely, although it sounds like he did try to PM our mayor. 0cz3c is Lucas' brother, so it's possible he found out Lucas' role. I don't think they usually play like that though, or at least I'll give em the benefit of the doubt. While it's possible that either of them Pm'd Ace, it just doesn't seem likely to me. Mikeymoo, BC, and Camlito seem to be three players who are generally in contact, iirc. Scaramanga somehow always gets around in PMs, so he makes my list. PART THE FIRST: Look at this objectively. Two bodyguards are dead. What is the primary purpose of the bodyguards? To protect the mayor and pardoner from mafia hits. Who is the primary beneficiary of dead bodyguards? The mafia, and, by proxy, the traitor. Case 1: Either Ver or Ace is mafia. (I don't think both are. Because then their internet acting skills would be stellar). BG roles were leaked somehow to either Ver or Ace. It could have been either indirect or direct, and this is important. For example, I think it would be more likely for the BGs to roleclaim to Ver directly rather than Ace directly. However if the information came to Ver or Ace indirectly - through a third party, perhaps one of the many people on my list, then it is about equally likely that either of them knew. There are many ways this could have happened. For example: Lucas and mm are in contact, Lucas tells mm he is bg, mm in contact with another person who he doesn't know is mafia spreads this info. E.g. any one mafia in their contact circle can relay the BG roles to either Ace or Ver (as we are assuming right now that one of them is red). Now with the bodyguards dead, mafia is free to thrust suspicion on the innocent officer. Look at the reaction in the thread: many people are jumping at Ver, but most notably, Ace is. He is actually being really really accusatory right now, displaying a lot of confidence in Ver's guilt. I am kind of unnerved by this, because Ace seems to have no qualms about losing the mayor, and I am not convinced entirely that Ver is mafia or the traitor. Ace is really fucking sure of himself here. I think that is unusual. To note is that Mynock backs him, and argues for lynching Ver. Ace even suggests that Ver killed the bodyguards just to get to Ace. This seems pretty fucking inefficient if you ask me. Ver could, if he wanted, stir up enough anger in the thread to get Ace lynched as long as there was enough support. Is Ace really that valuable to the us that Ver would kill both his bodyguards, exposing himself to suspicion, just to kill Ace on Night 3 even with the risk of Ace being a Veteran or medic protected? It would be retarded. Furthermore, if Ver is mafia, I would expect to see people in the thread arguing against his lynch. There isn't any of this. All of it is in support of lynching Ver, and the votes are too. Does this seem strange to anyone else? If Ace is mafia and Ver is innocent, it should be clear from the thread what his motives are. Case 2: Either Ver or Ace is the traitor This, my friends, is more likely. And more interesting. Requires, if info was passed directly: 1. BG info to be passed to Ver or Ace via Lucas/MM 2. Ver or Ace to have found and contacted the mafia 3. Mafia to have killed the BG's If info passed indirectly: 1. Lucas/MM roleclaim to 3rd party who is red 2. Mafia kill bg's, not knowing whether Ace/Ver is traitor. This scenario is actually rather interesting, and also is possible if both Ver and Ace are somehow innocent. Either way we look at it, this move benefits the traitor and thus the mafia. If Ace is traitor and we lynch Ver today, well then shit just hit the fan. If Ver is traitor, he gets lynched and then Ace gets hit by the mafia the following night, though does not necessarily die. If Ver is the traitor, I'm not sure how mafia would react. I think they could either: a) support to lynch Ver. The town lynching Ver is basically like "take an extra turn" for the mafia, because they don't lose any kp. In addition it takes attention away from people who are actually mafia members. b) protest lynching Ver. Mafia might want to keep him alive because he is the mayor and gets extra votes that can tip the lynches in their favor. Plus, the mayor always carries an aura of influence with his posts. Case 3: Both Ver and Ace are innocent This is definitely possible! All that needed to happen was for the mafia to get the bg roles for us to end up where we are. They really seem to hate each other though, so it's hard to imagine them on the same side. My opinion: possible, but improbable. Kind of like both bodyguards getting killed by blind luck. PART THE SECOND I now turn to the increasingly ignored death of a certain paramedic. On May 19 2009 13:38 Fishball wrote: Saw that long coming  FB said in the thread he had been talking to both Vivi and BC. I really, really, really, doubt that FB roleclaimed, but maybe he gave off a blue impression in his PMs... I think that there is only one person in this entire game that could even possibly pin down Fishball as blue on Day 1 by pure behavior analysis: MrBabyHands. MTF adds clue analysis: On May 18 2009 13:33 MTF wrote: All of the above indicates that the attacker is possibly small. He is not seen by Qatol when he turns around to find who was talking, the attacker leaps to strike Qatol's chest, and may have needed whoever attacked LTT's help in pushing the body into the water. These are only Day 1 clues. But I like MTF's connections. It's just something to consider here. I am not yet convinced at all that MBH is mafia. It would be nice to see his opinion on the recent events, however. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
bodyguards saw L posting and roleclaimed to him. "no way he could be mafia dude, he's playing totally different from last game!" L, who's mafia gets them killed Night 1. Oh yea, now I can get rid of Ace! And put the blame on the other guy too! Wait whats that? How would it make sense that both of them could be mafia and kill their protection, leaving both of them open to Vigis? Fuck it, no one would see the logic flaw. /dream | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
Each one is a smart day one hit, as neither of the 3 would ever get protection | ||
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HeavOnEarth
United States7087 Posts
...well i just had to put it out there  | ||
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