EPTQuestion to the Game Moderator: What is the Contract Killer's win condition?
I have an exam tomorrow, so I need to be studying for that at the moment. But tomorrow at work I should be able to sneak on for a bit.
Mafia VII - GG
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
Question to the Game Moderator: What is the Contract Killer's win condition? I have an exam tomorrow, so I need to be studying for that at the moment. But tomorrow at work I should be able to sneak on for a bit. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
If we are offering all these options and advice about the role and it turns out that he determines that he would be better off not siding with us, that would suck. I have some ideas about how to get the Contract Killer on the town's side, but I don't want to post them if his win condition doesn't go along with that because then I'd basically be telling him what not to do. Can we not talk about what we want to do with the Contract Killer, but instead what the Contract Killer would want to do with us and if it fits his victory condition? He isn't necessarily playing for the town to win, he is playing for himself to win. So let's make sure we can put those both on the same path before speculating about what to do about the Contract Killer role. Does this make sense? | ||
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semioldguy
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semioldguy
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If I find a town member, I risk losing my only contact, since if the townie dies, he likely doesn't know any other for-sure confirmed townies (unless he is a Detective, which would probably be the best role for me to find since he can find contact-successors as well as help me choose my kills). I wouldn't want to pick a high-profile player like Ace to contact, because I'd say he has higher than normal odds to be night-killed if he is town and I don't want to lose my contact. I would want to choose a lower profile player or one with a smaller target on his head. Alternatively I might look for a Mafia member, because he knows other confirmed players of his same alignment that he could pass my info on to if he were to die, thus helping ensure that when I lose my one contact that I'd have a higher chance of getting a replacement who already knows what's up. Of course this also depends on whether or not I am a high-profile player. If I am a high-profile player I don't want to run the risk of getting night killed because I decided to work for the town. I would try to find Mafia and establish contacts there. If I was not a high profile player, I wouldn't need to fear early night-deaths as much and then finding town would still be a good option for me. I think the Contract Killer should pick a lower-profile type player and go from there. That's the sense I make of it at least. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 22 2009 15:58 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: fuck CK is prolly gonna go mafia and be like their DT. I mean the risk of getting lynched is really small compared to the risk of getting killed by mafia. and CK can help the mafia with their DT powers a lot more than the town... if they can find the mafia (might have already done so if that email address went to the real CK) But if the victory condition has to do with killing people (which I suspect it might, otherwise his role name of "Killer" isn't going to be very accurate) then being the Mafia's role-checking buddy is not in the Contract Killer's best interest because by doing that he isn't killing anyone. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 22 2009 16:05 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: lol wot? mafia just tell him someone to kill that won't be on their list for that night if he needs to kill to fulfill some winning condition. unless BC did something dastardly like tell the CK they have to double cross both sides and kill at least 3 on each side or some cat brazy shit like that. Then he isn't going to be a Mafia DT like you suggested in the post I quoted. I wasn't making a point so much as disproving yours. Obviously he can still offer Mafia a lot, but I doubt he would be offering role-checking services to find our blues. | ||
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semioldguy
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On April 22 2009 16:15 Malongo wrote: Id like to ask to the moderators playing this round for an IP check on this account and who shares it. Im asking this because its a power that not all players have and its important for the game. Thank you. His IP didn't match anyone else onsite as far as I can tell. If it did I would lynch that player out of policy. | ||
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semioldguy
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semioldguy
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semioldguy
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semioldguy
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On April 23 2009 01:33 L wrote:Either way, determining how we should 'manage' the contract killer is 100% dependant on information we don't currently have. We shouldn't try to be "managing" the Contract Killer. I doubt he would take kindly to that if he has his own agenda. We want to help him with his agenda as long as it doesn't interfere with ours. Here is a compelling argument for the Contract Killer to side with the town: The town has less ability to backstab you. If the Mafia thinks you are not useful any longer, they could just night kill you. Siding with the Mafia allows no way back out without death. If you need to slip back into the shadows for some reason, it's easier to do that if sided with the town. The town does not have that flexibility to easily get rid of an unwanted Contract Killer. A Contract Killer siding with the Mafia can no longer think just about himself because the Mafia member he is in contact with has more power than he does. The Contract Killer is likely to have more power than the town member he is in contact with thus easier for him to keep relations positive. As a Contract Killer put yourself in the position of power in the relationship with your contact and side with town. After thinking about this I think it is likely in the town's best interest to keep the Contract Killers alive. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 23 2009 05:58 Ace wrote: @Sog: I 100% agree with your analysis on why the CK would usually want to side with the town - backstabbing mafia hoes. However, what if the CK is not someone lurking in the shadows but a valuable, outspoken voice? The Mafia would LOVE to have that guy. He can be working for Mafia, but if DT checked flips blue and can just say he has sided with the town. It's probably not be a good strategy for the Contract Killer to be a valuable, outspoken voice. I don't think a Contract Killer wants to be found, he wants to find people. If at any time both Mafia and town have figured out that the other side also knows he is the Contract Killer, then he instantly becomes a liability to both, pretty much ensuring his own death. Mafia have no real advantage over the town in finding the Contract Killer, but the town has Detectives and the Contract Killer can be found that way by the town. If the Contract Killer is already sided with Mafia he is now in real danger as he has to somehow avoid letting each side know that the other knows about him. If he is role checked, he needs the person to claimed to have role-checked him to be (or think) that he is the new contractor, otherwise he risks death. He can't just kill the person who contacts him either, because it could either be a mouth for a real Detective or the Detective could have entrusted that information to someone else to act on in the event of his own suspicious murder. That player being killed could bring suspicion and death upon him. This is an additional risk of going to Mafia which would not be a factor for the Contract Killer if going to town. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 23 2009 06:46 Tricode wrote: ...eventually when town asks them to hit someone that is mafia and they don't well we can consider it betrayal and lynch them. Or they go through with it and the Mafia are like "what the hell are you doing?" and night kill him. The Contract Killer can't risk ever being known by both sides. Best way to ensure that is to side with town. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 23 2009 07:00 L wrote: Took you a grand total of 2 lines to start contradicting your own position. You make a case for getting medic protection, but that's pretty much exactly what I said the CK would do: take neutral, defensive actions at the start of the game. If his victory condition is survival, the CK will want to play defensively until he can end the game, because unlike the town or mafia, there is only one of him and he cannot afford to die. Way to quote me out of context. let me state it differently. Other people are saying/planning on using the Contract Killer to the town's advantage. I am suggesting that the Contract Killer use the town to his advantage and trying to come up with scenarios where that might be possible. Its quite possible his objectives are something like "kill 1 mafia member and kill 1 detective" or something off the wall like that, so 100% basing our strategy on an unknown is risky. Any off the wall things like that where he has to find certain people/roles to kill, he is even more better off using the town because then he can eventually find a Detective and start doubling his efforts in his search for which roles he needs to kill. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 23 2009 07:36 Ace wrote:BUT if I was the CK I'd be trying to run for Mayor. That way if I decided to side with Mafia they could never backstab me. You ARE running for Mayor!!! O_O | ||
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semioldguy
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On April 23 2009 09:09 LucasWoJ wrote: ... we can't analyze behavioral patterns. If you were intending to do that, it'd be day 15 or so before any pattern could be noticibly distinguished. Are you insane!? It doesn't take that long to start analyzing behavior patterns. Behavior analysis was far and away more helpful than clue analysis in the last game which didn't even get halfway to Day 15. | ||
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semioldguy
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On April 23 2009 10:39 LucasWoJ wrote: mmmm, you took my post completely out of context, but I guess I was not clear. I was referring to the written clues. Every mafioso has his own behavior which one can analyze IN THE CLUES. If Bloodycobbler is to continue doing what I think he's doing and there are roughly 1 mafia: 4 townie, it would be like day 6 before he's described all of the mafia in THE CLUES. Because it's so difficult to determine whether something is a red herring or an actual clue, it would take a couple clue posts before we could be certain of our characterization. And yeah, I was part of that game. Behavioral analysis was what won that game for us. But that's not the type of behavioral analysis I'm referring to. It's analyzing the characters in the clue day posts. OOohhhh... I see. That makes more sense. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
I'm thinking the Mafia want to eliminate key players. If they suspect any of us are going to be getting role checked, they are just going to take us out because not only are they now getting rid of a supposedly good player, which they will probably be aiming to do anyway, but they also made the Detective waste a role check on someone who immediately died. Trying to direct the Detectives is bad because Mafia benefits more from that information than the town does. The best time of the game for players like You, Me and Caller to get role checked would be several nights in if we are still alive. Not on Night Two. If there is a role we should be helping direct, it's the Medics, because that alters the Mafia kills in a positive way for the town. Something like last game, a list of veteran/desirable players which the Medics can be advised to choose from for protection targets. It should be a list larger than the number of Medics we think we have and it makes every person on that list a risk for Mafia to target. In this way we can force the Mafia to either stack up kills on one player, effectively reducing their kill power or we force them to make suboptimal kills each night. | ||
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semioldguy
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semioldguy
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semioldguy
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On April 23 2009 23:50 GoodWill wrote: cool, let's lynch quickstirker next This post was edited. Before the edit it said "cool" and nothing else. This was the post after the lynch for the day was revealed and showed as townie (five minutes after BC's post). The original post was left there for about twenty minutes before he came to edit the extra bit in. No one posted during that time. I think this would be a too-obviously dumb post for Mafia to make. But I want to set an example here. People are NOT supposed to be editing their posts! There are too many post edits I am seeing. It is against the rules. I can see what you wrote. You aren't going to be able to hide anything by editing. Most of you are just adding things to your post. Don't do it. Just make a new post. It's fine. No one is going to be criticized for multiposting here or making a typo. Just mention it in your next post if you meant to fix something. An acronym I'd recommend for this game is EBWOP. It stands for "Edit by way of post" and you can use it to say that it is what you would edit into your previous post if you could. For example: EBWOP: I meant to say that you do not* look like mafia, not that you do | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 24 2009 13:49 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I'm just worried how easy it is for mafia to hide. We got so many people last time through their conspicuous inactivity and town was much more active so active people were safer. At this point if I and a few more active people die tonight the post rate will probably go to less than half what it is now and no one will be able to be active without getting mowed down because we don't have the strength in numbers that we need. Right now mafia can be silent without drawing any attention because 21 people are super inactive and there's no way there are even 11 mafia. Being inactive hurts whichever side you are on. If you are town and inactive, it hurts the town. If you are mafia and inactive, it hurts the mafia. Lurking or inactivity is almost always a bad strategy and hurtful to your own side. I would like to encourage everyone to be active when you can be. You make this commitment when you sign up for the game, please do you best to hold yourself to it. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
Question for Game Mod: Is Bockit still alive since he has not been crossed out? | ||
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semioldguy
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Based off of his activity he was likely contacting others, but he didn't give me any hints as to who they could be. People who were talking to any of the now dead players should come forward and say what they were talking about with them. This will help as we will know what these players were thinking but afraid to post in the thread. Now that we know they are innocent we can look at their opinions in that light. In the same respect anyone who was talking with Bockit should also come forward and let us know what his opinions in private were, because knowing he is mafia changes the way we see those opinions and hiding that information would be bad for the town. | ||
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semioldguy
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semioldguy
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We need to make the Medic list bigger. I tried to add two names to the list yesterday, but both people I recommended adding to the list died last night. Six people is too few to have a list as it leaves to many options still open for safer Mafia killings. Either Ace is lying about being hit, Mafia doubled up, or missed somewhere else but that person isn't coming forward. I believe Ace, so it must be one of the other two options. Qatol is being too aggressive as Mayor in my opinion. I don't think trying to figure out who Pyrrhuloxia was PMing with will be very successful in finding the Mafia because it's likely he didn't tell others which other people he talk with and it's not like a guilty person is going to come forward and say they were talking with Pyrrhuloxia and that he revealed himself to them. That being said I don't think PMing other people is a good idea in almost any case. If you have something to say, say it here so you can be accountable for it and others can start feeding off of your info. It is helpful to the town to do this. Hiding your information doesn't help us, it confuses and can hurt us, as you should now understand by Pyrrhuloxia's death. Speculating about our power roles is BAD. This hurts the town, we don't want to help the Mafia figure out their kills for the night by outing possible power roles. The power roles we have are innocent players and an innocent player's judgment is better than the combined judgment from a group of others in my opinion, especially when a group of others can be influenced more easily by the Mafia. Just let the power roles be whoever they will be and trust them to make decisions. This power role speculation stuff goes for PM's and posting in the thread. So if you have been doing this, please stop doing it! | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 28 2009 02:46 JeeJee wrote: terrible reasoning. have you even looked at the convo between bockit and qatol? "every time jeejee is mentioned". pray tell, what are those times? you mean the one time he said that i am suspicious but not worth lynching yet? I gave the posts another look. You were mentioned twice, but the second time was not inquiring about you at all and not really looking for a response about you (and it didn't get one). That doesn't remove all my suspicion from you, but it does remove some. For now I am going to unvote you. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
Showtime! suggested it and was the first to vote on it, followed not to much after by Chuiu. Do you seriously think this was a good move? The people speaking out against the double lynch look good to me. On April 26 2009 17:02 Malongo wrote: This makes no sense to me. Why is it the best plan to wait for the mafia families to lynch each other??! Lynching mafia is lynching mafia and lowers the overall kill power. I don't think it matters too much to the town which family we are lynching as long as we are eliminating Mafia which lowers the overall kill power. What if the two families don't lynch each other? How can we determine who is in which family anyway? You appear innocent to me Malongo, but this is just bad thinking in my eyes.4 We dont know how will come the mafia hits next day and always remember that there are 2 groups coordinated against the town. We cant afford to waste the lynchs helping anyside, if something, its better and the best plan for the town to wait that the two mafias hit eachother. Im not saying obviously that we dont lynch mafia, but wasting double lynchs to help one of them is not optimal, if one of the mafia wants to damage the other lets force them to use theyr own hits, not the town double lynchs. @ Mynock and Vivi57 What do you think of the alignment of some of the people pressing a double lynch for tomorrow? Do you find any of them to more likely be mafia than the rest? Which ones and why? This question can be answered by anyone who opposes the double lynch really, those were just the first two people in the voting thread who spoke out against it so I find their opinion more genuine than others who posted later who may just have been following. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
I believe that a lynch is almost always better than no lynch. It is the town's primary ability to eliminate mafia. Even if our chances of lynching mafia are low, low chances are still better than the no chances that come from not lynching (if you are trying to argue that if we lynch we have a high probability of lynching town and no lynch ensures we don't lynch a town then you aren't playing to the town's win condition. Our objective isn't to keep as many town players alive, it's to kill all the mafia. Town players are going to die, it happens, but townies still win with the town at the end of the game even if they died). Not lynching essentially gives the mafia two nights in a row. Lynching someone, even when wrong, can help to provide information about those who were voting for/against the lynchee which is important later in the game for analyzing voting patterns and behavior in catching mafia. I would urge that people choose not to abstain from voting for this reason. If you still don't see why not lynching is bad, then I'll try to explain it better. Anyone who thinks it is still a good idea to abstain or no-lynch will appear more suspicious to me. Though I know it is a common mistake people make who are not overly familiar with competitive mafia (based off games I play on other sites) Please don't abstain or support a no lynch because that hurts the town in the long run. If you are currently abstaining, either pick someone you find suspicious or remove your vote. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
As for this thread, I think a lot of you are jumping to conclusions about Ace. I really don't see where people are coming up for arguments against him. Whether you think he is wrong or not is that really something that is exclusive to mafia? Town can be wrong too, and I have gotten a pretty decent townie vibe from him so far. He isn't really acting a whole lot different from past games in my opinion. I actually find it odd that he has been removed from the Medic list. I would have kept him on. Not only because I have a stronger feeling of his innocence than I do his guilt, but the fact that he was targeted night one (or claims to have been) makes it so that he should be protected again tonight by whoever may have protected him last night. Right now I am pretty suspicious of Qatol... not only did the two people he left off of his first medic list, that I would have included, get killed, but now he has left Ace off the Medic list and his own aggression is really not something the Mayor should be doing in my opinion unless he has a specific reason to be doing. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
Lesson 1 of being a good Mafia hunter: The town does not need to know everything about everything at any given time. If they did, then this would only tell the Mafia exactly what to do. Yes, it is pro-town to share your reasoning, but it is also pro-town to catch Mafia, and the two things do not always coincide. Use your best judgment as to whether information you have would be best revealed or kept to yourself. I think Ace applies this very well in that he hides what is best to be hidden and makes known what is best to be known. This is, of course, a judgment call, but I think I know where Ace is coming from in his posts. Saying where I think he is coming from could undermine what he is actually doing though, but he has a good head on his shoulders and for now I trust in my own feeling of his innocence. | ||
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