TL Mafia 5 [Game Over]
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Ace
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On March 18 2009 04:48 semioldguy wrote: The other reason we can't tell which side an incarcerated player is on simply by looking at kill power, is that kill power isn't going to change half of the time from a single Mafia being removed. So we would need to rely on a role-check anyway. which is why DTs are shit I'm going to explain this in depth in a few minutes | ||
Ace
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So far, none of the mayor/sheriff candidates are getting my vote based on their plans. Not because their plans are bad per se, but because no one who is running is addressing a few critical flaws that the town has to deal with. Let's get this straight out off the bat: Mafia have a a very big advantage this game. I'm going to explain it you right now. First of all, we need to understand how DT's work along with their impact on the structure of the game. A quick reminder: Detective - You may ask if a specific clue points to a specific person or if a specific sentence is a clue and receive a yes or no answer. You may also, four times during the game, ask for the role of a specific player. You may not use both during one day and you may not use more than two role checks consecutively. Realize this and remember it - DTs can only use FOUR rolechecks in the game, and they can't even use them back to back. That's 12 RCs total but not consecutive. Any plan that involves confirming people has to involve DTs with the exception of behavior and clue analysis. Basically, there is no confirmation process this game, unless it's limited to very few people. Even if you had a line of people to confirm it would take forever because DTs can't use consecutive role checks. Let's also remember that this is even worse if a Detective somehow dies. But it get's worse... Sheriff and Mayor will hide the roles of the elected players so that a Detective role check will show them as Sheriff/Mayor and nothing else. This is the actual killer right here. In past Mafia games, elections were crucial to Town and Mafia because of not only the power they had, but protection from Night deaths. With Vigis being nerfed, Mafia don't have to worry about the latter too much. This is partly why they are a bit stronger but there's more. Like I said, in past elections getting Mayor/Pardoner was critical. However for the Mafia it was VERY risky - A DT could just find you and out you. This was of course, just as risky for the DT - he'd surely die at some point in the game, but now Mafia have to go through layers of possible medic prot to get him/her and you can see how psychological this little game of cat and mouse becomes. The Mafia can run and hope to kill a DT outing them, or hope not to get checked. The Dt is finding them, has to figure out a way to live and out them. All of this of course takes time, but not too long in game day terms. Even so, if the Mafia got the Mayor/Pardoner seat the idea of not letting an influential Townie get it could be seen as a Pyrrhic victory. With the addition of a Godfather, this was put back into balance for the Mafia since it would take more than a DT rolecheck to get them if they could manage to get their GF elected which is a risky move in itself. In this game there is no such risk. DTs can't even identify normal mafia if they get elected. In essence, there is no way short of clue and behavior analysis to figure out if an elected position is Mafia. Any plan revolving around confirmation with these 2 elected roles and DTs are out the window. PERIOD. The DTs this game are literally working alone until they can get a large circle on their own or hope to connect with other DTs. No elected official is to be given ANY critical info. They can come up with and follow plans but thats all there is to it. The DTs can't confirm them, and even if they could with rolechecks being shot to shit it would take too much time. Detectives - you have to play this game with an extremely watchful eye. This time it's not just about investigating vet players, but choosing your checks ever more critically. Sheriff/Mayor - I'm running too. I'm not going to lie and say I have some grand plan that just won't work like everyone else, but I'll let it be known that as always I'll point out any fatal mistakes that will kill the town, and I've been known to make good decisions at key times. I'd rather be Mayor though, because Sheriff seems like a waste of time for me (so far). I'll also put my Mayor vote for Mr.Baby Hands. I've played numerous games with him and he's shown himself to know how to catch people in traps just as well as I can. He also has some sort of weird, sixth sense too. No one else seems to have anything that jumps out to me that makes me want to vote for them. | ||
Ace
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1.) Whoever claims vigi can't be mafia or the plan is dead. Even if the DT could check them, thats 1 RC down the drain and doesn't even get us the real Vigi we need. Assuming this doesn't happen... 2.) Now we have to hit a suspected mafia, not a sure fire mafia. Why do this early in the game? Unless we get an RC it's useless. We'd need to wait for more clue analysis. Involving DTs means spreading out already thin Medic protection, which means Mafia is going to rape everyone else very fast. 3.) Assuming we have a legit Vigi and he hits a mafia...now what? Everyone send in their roles to him? Mafia doesn't have to fear another hit from him, there are only so many blue roles that they most can just claim Towny and go on with their lives. Once again DTs will take forever to sort out the liars and may very well be out of Rolechecks at this point. Mafia wins the long term battle on this one. The Vigi plan isn't going to help until much later in the game when the town doesn't need too much Detective help. | ||
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On March 18 2009 10:20 Qatol wrote: Ok a few things. First of all, Ace: Rolechecks can be used consecutively, just not 3 times in a row. Reread the role. Checking people can happen faster than you indicated. Second of all: There is an easy way of getting around the GF posing as a vigi idea (which is mucking up a potential vigi plan). Don't just rolecheck the vigi. The vigi AND the town knows where the hit went. All we have to do is have the vigi confirm that his hit went through and then look for the clue. Why the clue? Because vigis can be CLUECHECKED. If the town can't find a clue when they know who the clue has to link to, well we are in a lot more trouble than I thought. Now the mafia can try to fake this, but it is unlikely that the mafia they want is actually linked to the hit they want. It is probably worth thinking about rolechecking the vigi as well just in case, but really, unless the mafia get pretty lucky, they can't control how the hit will go. Ok even if they can use them up to 4 times - there is a limit. What if the town has to check multiple people? How do we do it? The DTs can't coordinate and there is no way to know who needs to be checked first. The DTs are gimped on this one and there is no way around it. There *is* no way of getting around it. And this isn't just talking about the GF - it's about any Mafia really. It goes back to the same idea of having to use DTs and risking them or going off an even worse move of hoping the mafia mess up. but ok let's assume the GF fakes vigi. GF comes out and says he's vigilante and will hit X player at night. Let's not even begin to think how we've come this conclusion that X should be hit. If X is 100% mafia we shouldn't be using the Vigi hit anyway. This means X has to be likely mafia. Which means he can be Miller/Townie/Blue or whatever. As long as he isn't 100% mafia, the GF just hits him and it goes through - how does the town avoid this? Even with a cluecheck how do you know who the hit gets linked to from the Mafia side? | ||
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On March 18 2009 10:29 Caller wrote: From past experience mafia rarely claims vigi, if ever. And one can tell if a kill is mafia or vigilante, usually-mafias in the past have been themed, while vigilantes are of a different theme. More importantly, mafias will give themselves away, especially if the targets in question are inactives or highly suspicious. For instance, if Tim is highly suspicious, and we send Bob after Tim, if Mafia tries to fake the kill it will show up, and "save" us a vigilante kill from revealing a suspicious person. On the other hand, if a legitimate vigilante kills Tim, we have our confirmed Vig. Regardless of whatever role the person hit was. At which point, the vigilante gets incarcerated (which protects him) and can arrange the roles. If Mafia fakes, it is likely that they will stick out like a sore thumb. Sure, it may add some confusion, but at however many mafia they sacrifice. More importantly, people with roles tend not to be inactives. And even if mafia claims Towny, it doesn't matter, because now we have the ability to coordinate night actions, and we can limit the pool of suspected mafia to that of just the townies (unless Godfather impersonates a blue, which although smart, if he's not careful, he may give himself away very easily). And we don't have to rolecheck everybody, we can just use selective information and the use of roles to try and trip up mafia impersonating as blues. edit: yeah I know I have finals, but I'm taking a break from studying. I hate calculus. Well past experience isn't going to help on this one - the rules of the game are different. With the plan these guys have come up with, Mafia claiming vigi is really a valid concern. Even without mafia interference the plan has some big holes but we can't just assume Mafia won't try. Your example actually helps my argument - Tim is highly suspicious. If Tim doesn't flip Mafia the town has just FUCKED up. Bob can be Mafia or legit Vigi but we won't know without solid clue analysis. Even if the clues are worded in a way that shows bob as a vigi(which it won't btw since there are barely any big codenames to go on so far, and even if there were we'd be trying this too early to be able to seperate Mafia codenames from Vigi codenames) what do we do now? Send in all the roles to Bob, who absorbs tons of medic prot and even if he lives now has to sort out liars and coordinate DTs and use up all the rolechecks on the liars? All of you are making the classic mistake you make every game - you look at the good side of the "what if" example and always forget the other side, which more than likely will happen. This time the good side isn't even that good as it's a plan with so many flaws. Very high risk for moderate gain. The best bet for this plan to work is to hope that Bob is a legit Vigi that also happens to be running for Sheriff/Mayor. Even then it probably won't work out well. | ||
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On March 18 2009 10:39 Caller wrote: As far as I know, mafia doesn't choose which clues pop out for kills. So if you cluecheck the person that kills the GF's target, and it doesn't match up with the Godfather, the godfather is screwed. That's a 1/10 chance of a successful deception, and if the clue is blatantly obvious it's a mafia (i.e. it appears twice or is of the same theme as mafia) the godfather is screwed again. So it is very unlikely the GF will go through with the hit. Keep in mind also that the GF has to target a suspicious character, or an inactive-either case, the hit, if it goes through, will help us whittle suspect lists while maintaining Town KP. If GF targets an important person or whatnot, he's exposing himself to massive amounts of flak. And why would GF necessarily roleclaim Vigilante? As soon as the GF's clues appear twice, he's dead. This applies to any mafia who tries to fake DT/Vig: the clues will get them much more likely than not. The risk just isn't worth it. As for the DTs rolechecking, we don't need to rolecheck until we have the whole Vigilante mess organized. At which point, the Vigilante can organize rolechecks. But how will you know they killed the GF's target? Thats what I'm saying. Do we know that the Mafia when they send in their hit list assign them specifically or is it just one big list of names? And regardless of this how do you know whoever is writing clues is going to match them up like this? There aren't any codenames yet so it's even worse to even try it because when we do this the Vigi codenames are going to be mixed in with the Mafia codenames and that's even if we GET any codenames. Once again you're assuming way too much. Um the GF faking Vigi, if he wanted doesn't mean a cluecheck = GG for him. First we'd have to find the clue. Second, if the person he hits because of being highly suspect flips non-mafia no one can even accuse him of anything since it's the town that helped him/her in this decision. Once again you keep forgetting how many hoops the town has to jump through just for this plan to even be decent. | ||
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On March 18 2009 10:43 Qatol wrote: Confirm someone and coordination gets a lot easier. Why do you say this? If we get someone we think is 100% mafia, why not hit him if it isn't before the lynch? You don't. However, I checked with Chuiu: The mafia cannot control this. If the GF picks vigi in order to muck up this plan, it means they cannot fake medic or DT or BG and muck up another plan. Furthermore, chuiu has to randomly pick the GF for that hit otherwise all the GF can say is that he missed. 1.) Who are you going to coordinate through? I keep asking this and no one can give a solid answer except "a Vigi" which as we've seen has a ton of problems and takes a lot of time. 2.) If we get someone that is 100% mafia, save the vigi hit and lynch the mafia the next day or on a double lynch unless it's like some ultra crucial timing that reduces mafia KP. Why waste a vigi hit? 3.) the mafia never have been able to control what clues they get, or how they get linked. What I was saying is that as the town you don't know who the mafia are so it's pointless to try and assume how the clues are done. 4.) Why can't the mafia fake medic/bg/dt? Just because the Godfather picked Vigi? Thats not making sense. It's in their best interest to make the DTs run out of rolechecks so they can just 1a2a3a the town in the midgame. How can the GF call the miss if he's faking Vigi? He can't miss | ||
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On March 18 2009 10:48 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: We don't even have to use DT's to check if the vigi hits a red. We won't send roles in unless the vigi hits a red. The GF can't fake a red hit (if all vigis are calling their shots beforehand like we seem to be in agreement a bout). If we exhaust all our vigi hits without hitting a red we still have a short list of vigis we can then DT check with either clue checks, role checks, or may just clue analysis as Caller explained. If more than 3 vigis role claim, that's probably better than a vote count list would be for winnowing out a mafia. right...I think you're getting it somewhat. This plan relies on hitting MAFIA. If no mafia get hit, it now comes down to ok, how do we confirm our vets? Use DTs. Which means we use up even more time and rolechecks. Mafia lose 1 guy, town has to spread medic protection on these guys and the mafia wins out in the longterm because Dts are using up even more rolechecks. Then you still have to figure out how to even find the DTs and get them to communicate. see the problem now? | ||
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On March 18 2009 10:50 Qatol wrote: How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect. Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that.... ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance? | ||
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On March 18 2009 10:59 Qatol wrote: 1. You coordinate through the vigi that you JUST CONFIRMED with your mafia hit + cluecheck. Alternatively, you can coordinate through a medic/innocent combo from a save. 2. Why not use the vigi hit? Would you rather risk the vigi dying? 3. I have already addressed this. 4. They can. However, they show up to a check if they do it. This plan only needs checks if it is close to succeeding. Otherwise they can be used elsewhere. GF can't miss, but a vigi can if the mafia hits the target too. So the GF can "miss" if he's faking vigi 1.) what CLUECHECK? The Vigi is going to show up the same night as Mafia codenames IF we even get codenames. So how are you going to know which is which? You can't. Then you still have to find the right clue. And you still are assuming that your highly suspect person is going to flip Mafia. If he doesn't thats it - it's over. 2.) The vigi wouldn't risk dying if none of us know who he is. I'd rather something happen in the day that makes someone plainly obviously mafia, Vigi hitting that guy, and then finding a way to prove it was him rather than going to the reverse option which is just terrible in this game. 3.) actually you haven't. We know the mafia can't control what clues they get - they never have in any mafia game. But since you don't know who the mafia are, you can't tell who the clues point to or how they are done. So when you throw the Vigi in there you just have one big mess and no way of figuring it out. 4.) how do you know the mafia are going to be checked by faking another role? Remember, the DTs are going to have to check every other list too, and this says nothing about how many rolechecks they will have left at that point. Faking blue roles is a very legit strat this game. and once again - the GF will never miss. He's better off hitting if he wants the town's trust. If his target is Mafia, which he could never hit then he would have never fake claimed vigi to begin with and let the plan continue so they could just ruin it later down the line. | ||
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On March 18 2009 11:06 Qatol wrote: I argue that none of your "holes" matter at all. If the vigi misses, oh well. We still hit a high probability target. We used a vigi the way a vigi should be used. This plan isn't something that MUST happen. It is an option. Furthermore, the vigi can still get confirmed if the town takes out the GF. Alternatively, the other vigi can step up and take HIS shot. Oops! He missed again. Except there are only 2 vigis. We get a free set of roleclaims for the vigi role. Is that really a bad thing? If the vigi hits mafia, he gets to coordinate medic protection. Why would he put all of the medics on himself? He forces the mafia to play guessing games with KP. Last time I checked that was a good thing? There is no martyr this game, no vet,no jacks, and very few medics. There are only so many guesses to go around. But ok, go ahead and ignore my warnings. If the vigi misses on a high probability target, now we have to hope we kill the GF and that the original vigi wasn't a normal mafia faking it. Then we also have to hope another vigi steps up, takes his shot, and that the guy he hit flips mafia thereby confirming him instead. but if he misses neither of them are confirmed, 1 person is surely lying if the GF claimed also, and then we trust BOTH of them even though we don't know which one is legit. Yes, let's go with this idea. | ||
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On March 18 2009 11:14 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: If the vigi turns out to be confirmed good the unsorted list will probably yield him some sort of goodies - if everyone does their duty and sends in their role the mafia will have to fake role claim at least one of every blue or there will be someone to pass it on toward. He'll be able to check at least some stuff I imagine and yeah that makes him a big target but this has still been a legitimate goal of the town every game despite the risk it carries. Even if the mafia use 100% of their KP to take him out, that's a ton of KP to kill one person and helps out the town a bunch in catching up to the bad guys. If the mafia use all their KP to take the guy out the info is lost. Remember it takes some DAYS to even get the info out to DTs to sort it. He'll be dead by the second night he's out. The mafia have more to gain than the town by faking every blue role. Even at the loss of 3 members, the town loses all their info, half or even more of the legit DT rolechecks and a few days on a plan that at best gets us less than even to where the mafia are now. | ||
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@Inf: You know if I'm against some plan in a Mafia game and if you assume I'm innocent - there has to be a really good reason right? Look at the plan and tell me after going through all the "if this happens, and then if this and this and this" happens and it all comes out what is the point? It's like no one realizes this game is designed so that there is no way to have early central organization as easy as before, but you guys are going to kill yourselves and all the rest of us in trying. right now it's better to see how the this election and the first day plays out while letting the DTs do whatever it is they want to do. | ||
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On March 18 2009 12:56 Caller wrote: never mind, it was deja vu. T_T as for the vig plan, yeah. Although to be honest, I don't quite understand what's wrong even if the hit is a non-mafia. Again, the clues determine a lot, and if the clues match, the person is either definitely vig or definitely mafia. Otherwise, the person is definitiely mafia, and he dies. To prove that a person is vig, one quite simply puts medic protection (not incarcerates) him. If his name appears in the clues again, he's mafia. If not, likely he's a vig. At which point he can be lynched/incarcerated. There are just so many ways for the mafia fake to go wrong I doubt it would be worth it. sigh here we go again...ok besides all the holes I've pointed out before let's take another hypothetical example. Mr.A claims he's the vigi and wants to kill highly suspected player Suspect X. For now ignore the fact that Mr.A could be mafia/Gf and lying Let's also ignore any DT tie-ins just yet. Suspect X flips Innocent. Doesn't matter if he's blue or green. Mr.A still claims he's innocent so we look for the clues. 1.) If we get codenames for Mafia this game, how do you know which ones link to Mr.A? Everyone is assuming that if Mr.A sends in a kill, the clues based on Suspect X's death link to Mr.A. This is what I've been asking all along, but Qatol's answer from Chuiu doesn't address this. 2.) WHO is going to verify the clue fits? The only person that can do this are DTs but you guys said you don't want to involve them - so once again it comes down to whoever can get the clue to fit best to the codename. Purely subjective and can go wrong. 3.) Chuiu said he's using the "whoever sends in their kills first" ultra broken technique to determine hits. What if the mafia sent in their hits first and it's the same target as the vigi? The vigi comes out, saying his hit missed, he still has one and we're back to square one with no new info and still an unconfirmed vigi. 4.) Most importantly, once again if we get codenames along with #1 how are you going to seperate Mafia codenames from the Vigi codenames since they'll all appear on the same night. Even more what is to stop a mafia from claiming they are a vigi once a clue is linked to them. Remember unlike past games Vigis can act on Night 1 in this game, so there is no clear cut list of which kill goes where. It's impossible to tell. This plan can't even begin to work until way later in the game when more information is passed around and a few key deaths have been coughed up. It's also the reason I'm not voting for any of the other candidates - all of you say you'll do this and that but none of have shown any in depth analysis and willpower to break a plan that looks good on paper. No one can be confirmed if they are elected. So anyone with a "plan" this game is just as good as Mafia. So my vote is more out of I'd rather have some of you not be in office because of the danger you've already presented. | ||
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Once you have a solid set of clues without DT help, then you can try the plan. Of course it will still have some holes, but by then if we have a few Mafia kills I'm sure they'd be less inclined to easily throw members into it even if it might still be a risky idea. It's kinda like PvT. You don't go for Carriers asap because you don't have the resources and because you need more information from your Obsevers to know when to do it. That's what this current plan is like, except we might need some HTs too to storm the gollies. | ||
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On March 18 2009 14:08 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Lol what happened game 3? Chuiu was doing dumb shit no sane mod would do in Mafia. I addressed it before the bullshit happened, he ignored, the bullshit happened anyway and he thinks it's everyone else's fault. | ||
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On March 18 2009 14:03 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: To avoid a fake vigi we could only give a potential vigi one try until we cycle to the next one but then we can't protect them all and mafia will kill real vigis whose hits got stolen. I'm losing hope for this plan, tbh. If Ace's secret plan is a winner if / when he reveals it I won't stand in its way and I'll help if it requires Mayor and / or Sheriff action. My secret plan isn't so hot Really, all it is: 1.) decide if I should try to get elected or not 2.) based on this, reveal my role 3.) if elected and role is revealed, start trying to verify the two people in this game I know for sure would can come up with something to catch liars | ||
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On March 18 2009 14:18 Chuiu wrote: Typical you would just flame me instead of explaining it to him. They lost an extra hit on one night of game 3 because they lost someone to a vigilante hit. Ace bitched and moaned about their suicide bomber decreasing the hit count when they asked ahead of time if it would or not, but it was the vigilante hit that did it. Of course he just keeps bitching about it, but if they would have hit a Vigilante before the Vigilante sent a hit against them they would never have bitched about that. *yawn* And this is why we said you're an idiot. Yes obviously we should have hit the vigilante because...we know who he is? Brilliant. Like we have a list of all the Blues in the game from the get go. The problem wasn't solely the fact that it was who got hit - it was that you did it in the first place. In Mafia there isn't supposed to be altered kill lists. It shouldn't matter who sends in what hit first - everything goes through because then it's unfair to both sides. Of course with TEAMLIQUID being an international site, and most of us having jobs/school I'd think it would be even more painfully OBVIOUS doing this is just fucking some players over. There's just no way every time the right person is going to be able to get their PM in to send in a hit/protection or whatever. It's a stupid system that rewards whoever gets it in first when that should have 0 impact on the game. And you can call it bitching and moaning if you want but that one night did change the game dramatically. | ||
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Anyway Detectives, the first people you should investigate are the people voting. I still don't see how it's possible people could be voting because others offered their candidacy early like that has any importance whatsoever on being innocent or guilty. We've already established that can't be proven so it's pointless. Right now we should be trying to get veteran and good players with a good track record in that sheriff/mayor spot. The only one of them that fulfills that is BC as he's played for so long, but I still think MrBabyHands is a much better player as he has really good analysis abilities. I'm sticking my vote with him. | ||
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Guys. No one has plan. Forget it. Vote based on who we'd rather keep ALIVE at this point. Surely between myself and Ver if we're both innocent we'll be dead before Day 2. There aren't enough medics to protect us both. | ||
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I'd rather have you protected over Pyrr tho. I just see it as a big mistake. | ||
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That being said, leave the Pika Chu shit alone. He shouldn't even be close to being lynched. A DT will probably check him out and figure it out from there or we'll wait for more clues. This is exactly why I said you shouldn't be in any position of power. No idea why anyone would vote semioldguy in, good going town. so now me, Ver, Camlito, Mr.BabyHands, Versatile and other good players are left out in the cold. Real smart. | ||
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We just had to end the game because of all the problems it caused. | ||
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RebirthofLegend of all the inactives? oh no | ||
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M A O omg I don't think we'll ever hear the end of RoL complaining now | ||
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Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you - The Plan. I came up with this while making a sandwich last night, so I'm pretty sure this is going to work. The idea from this plan sprang from the mindset of the DTs not being able to be rallied. It also comes from the realization that medics can not protect enough vet players this game, so unfortunately some of us will die. We've got to use this little disadvantage and turn it into something positive, and I've come up with an idea. I'm going to put myself in the shoes of a Mafia player for a second. If I wanted to kill any vet players this game, this is a list of players I'd target for Night 1 death above all else. Camlito Qatol BloodyC0bbler Ver Caller Bockit iNfuNdiBuLuM Ace MrBabyHands Versatile Scaramanga JL13 That's a list of twelve potential targets, for fun let's call them the The Zodiac Brave. This list is important, because it gives us a place to start. I've got a feeling that somebody on this list is mafia, in fact 3 of them wouldn't be unreasonable. since these are the prime players in the game - if any of these players die during the Night it tightens the suspicion noose on the remaining ones. It also gives the medics a place to focus protections. Sure, the mafia could ignore this list and kill off other players but I'm sure they know letting any of these people live for too long is dangerous. Now for the hard part - Detectives. I'm going to ask you to ignore these players. Literally, just don't even investigate them unless something like a major clue points to them, it's obvious something fishy is wrong with them, or you need to confirm their ID to speak with them about something critical. Focus your investigations on people not on the list. Secondly, to the Town in general. Use this list as the start of your clue referencing. Clues are much easier to link when you already have a name in mind. Instead of looking through every profile and trying to match every little clue up - you've got this list of 12 names right here. After Night 1 goes away, the second set of clues + the first Day's clues should be enough to find something on someone listed. Also, we have to decide who the Sheriff should lock up for the night. It has to be one of these 12. No matter what we try to do, the medics can't protect everyone and the Mafia will stack kills even with RoL dead to take out some vets. Whoever we lock up out of the vets, has to be plain green Towny. Sure they might have to role claim but we can't afford to lock up any critical blue roles on Night 1. And last but not least - semioldguy. While lynching RoL was a good thing it says nothing about whether he is innocent or not. In fact, I think he's innocent but it doesn't matter. Do not send him any information. His innocence will be proven based on his actions during the game. Same goes for BC. | ||
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semioldguy might be a Detective. I was informed he lightweight role-claimed earlier. That's not too bad, but if he really is a blue that ran for Mayor/Sheriff to get protected then that's very good and lucky for us. It's possible he clue checked RoL and caught him but didn't come out and say it for his own safety until he won the election - but that's a stretch. | ||
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1. Camlito 3. BloodyC0bbler 8. Lurker 9. ydg 13. Night[Mare 14. JeeJee 17. RebirthOfLeGenD 24. Snet 32. MrBabyHands 33. Centric 34. Kennigit 35. Icysoul 37. Versatile 38. blue_arrow 39. RaGe 43. Lucktar 46. Humbug 50. motbob 57. nemY 59. semioldguy 60. aZnvaLiaNce 64. Rice 65. JL13 This is BC's list of people that haven't voted. Phrujbaz 0cz3c Mista Pika Chu TruthBringer TranceStorm dreamflower CynanMachae ZaplinG LucasWoJ redtooth ydg MrBabyHands This is the list of people that have voted for semioldguy. Of the 2 suspicious lists I'm more interested in the latter. The first list could be inactives and mafia, but the second list are all active posters. That means they have to have thought about their votes. However, with testimony from several players and semioldguy never even playing a game on the site before he somehow manages enough votes to snag a position. It's hard to tell if this is a bandwagon voting thing or mafia ploy. Regardless the only vet player sticking out on this list is Mr.BabyHands who voted for him probably because it didn't matter, or he'd rather have him in office than Pyrr. If we assume that veteran mafia would want mafia in office, we could also assume they'd have voted for Semi and we'd see more names from the 12 here. Good thing we won't use this assumption. Detectives this is probably the list you want to start role checking. Of course the first list has a few vet names, but Versatile voted and so did MBH. Camlito has been oddly quiet so far and so has JL13. Both could be really inactive at the moment, but by Day 2 they'd have to show up. If not then it's good to start looking at clues pointing to them and make them higher priority than the other 12. And of course, the most interesting list of all: MrBabyHands - 7 Ace Ver Caller Bockit iNfuNdiBuLuM Versatile nemY Almost all of them being players I'd listed under veterans. Of course I didn't list nemy, but like I told Ver in a PM exchange nemy is a pretty good player most of the time and he's dangerous because he's literally just too much in the shadows even though he posts. People just don't seem to notice him for some reason. He's just as dangerous as the other people. | ||
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The rest of your post of course, is way off. I think most greens DO care about dying because you know - they want the town to win. When Mandalor comes out to defend himself we'll know the truth. | ||
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So any green thinking he should die to take a hit for a blue player is just being stupid. It's more about about saving their own asses. If they actively contribute and then die that's different than just getting randomly picked off and claiming they've saved a blue. You're arguments as usual are way off. | ||
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On March 20 2009 08:06 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: So if someone gets protected by a medic, the medic and the person they protect know they are both good aligned right? I don't think vigis would use their one kill this early. Yes. This is why it's so crucial medics get lucky on the first night with protections. Since Vigilantes can't act tonight, if a medic stops a hit on Night 1 they know for sure their target is innocent. | ||
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Then it's a stretch to assume the Medics will protect the Vigilante AND the Mafia will hit him in the same night. The other problem also being is that what happens if the Vigi is a fake, but a real vigi targets him and he gets medic protected? x_x Lastly, for all this to work the Vigi hit has to go through and it has to hit red. If it kills an innocent we are back to square one. | ||
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Also remember the chances of a vigi hitting a medic target, especially if we assume everyone is paying attention is 0. The target would have to be someone highly suspected as you guys put it right? The only other way is if the Vigi did a random kill and the medic did a random protection and both were the same people - something you can't solve easily in this game. Medics are going to use Night 1 to figure things out, and from then IF their protted target is hit on any other night they can just retrace steps to figure if it was a random vigi hit or a Mafia hit. What you're suggesting puts too much out there for little gain. Really, no one needs to know publicly who's going to be hit by a Vigilante before it happens. sure he can send his PM in before the Mafia, but it doesn't mean shit unless the guy flips MAFIA. If it's innocent - we go right back to square one. @Qatol: The way the plan was worded, I thought it was a Vigi comes out, claims who he is going to hit and then go from there. If a Vigi hits someone and they flip Mafia, then they should come out and claim it and prove it. THIS is what I've been supporting - doing it in reverse. But ok let's go with your setup. Less active vigi: 1.The person calls out their hit. We will assume it is a target discussed in the thread, because it would be kinda silly for a vigi to just hit someone randomly. 2. There are now 2 situations that can arise. A) That target is mafia. In this situation, the vigi just added themselves to the mafia hit list, which means that someone else will not be hit. How is this a bad thing if the vigi doesn't tend to contribute anyways? B) That target is town. In this situation, the mafia has 2 options: a) They hit the target, negating the vigi hit. They have to kill off the vigi ASAP in this situation anyways, lest the vigi hit someone else. b) They let the hit go through. In this situation, they have a little more leeway, but they cannot afford to have that vigi still alive when the GF dies. Again, not a big deal if the vigi doesn't contribute much. 2A.) this is the only reward. If the target is Mafia and gets hit, nothing else matters from this point. 2Ba.) Regardless of which "option" the Mafia has - both fuck the town over. If they negate the Vigi hit you have to remember - The vigi once again goes unconfirmed. you keep forgetting that the longer this Vigi goes unconfirmed the more chances it is for him to mess up his hit. They do NOT have to kill the Vigi - in fact if I were Mafia and the town was on the verge of hitting an innocent I'd probably let the Vigi live to do it again. In this scenario he's just extra KP for the Mafia. If he was ever even close to hitting a Mafia we'd be back at situation 1. Since we're at situation 2, he's not - hence the Mafia have nothing to fear here. 2Bb.) Let the hit go through and the town is fucked. There is nothing positive about this scenario at all. It IS a big deal. Whether the GF lives or dies doesn't matter here: The Vigi used his only shot to kill a Townie. He can't be confirmed. What has the town gained? Whether he contributes or not isn't going to matter if this happened. He hasn't helped the town. @Pyrr: You can't be serious. Why would the medics be uneasy about protections on Night 2? Because vigis are active? So what? Like I said before, if people are paying attention it's not a big deal. If vigis just say they are going to kill someone after they pm their hit but don't say who they will hit, the mafia can't block it, the medics will know they can't 100% trust protection that night and can take necessary precautions, the mafia might take out the vigi but at least his hit will probably go through, and we don't have to put medics onto the vigi because they can't prove they are a vigi since they aren't saying who they will hit (if they survive somehow and hit a red I suppose they can prove it later and it might be obvious if vigis go one day at a time and all follow this). This would make the vigi essentially a suicide bomber though so if the vigi is a good player its probably not in their best interest. In any case, its all up to the vigi ultimately to decide what they will do. If the Vigis say they are going to kill someone, but don't say then what is the point of saying it? Now no one knows WHO he hit and it doesn't matter what anybody flips that night - he can just say "yea I hit that guy". Why would the Vigi do this? Which means the medics won't protect them as you say - which means the mafia won't have to kill him as you say - which means if he once again doesn't hit a mafia then what was the point in the first place. Get it now? | ||
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On March 20 2009 09:18 semioldguy wrote: If the Vigilante is going to come out and make it known that he made the hit after the fact what does he lose by instead saying so beforehand? The Mafia can't do anything about a Vigilante making a hit once it has already been PM'ed in. They cannot stop it at that point. The town, however, can do things about it. They can fuck it up if they don't know about it. This is ONLY true if the hit turns out to be MAFIA. The Mafia don't NEED to stop the hit if it hits an innocent. 1.) vigi PMs Chuiu for a hit 2.) Vigi roleclaims publicly to the town he just wanted to hit player X. 3.) Player X flips Mafia In this case, the Vigi is confirmed because no one could stop it unless medics just happened to prot the guy. Highly unlikely if it was a top suspect. But this is the likely scenario that you all keep ignoring: 1.)Vigi PMs Chuiu for a hit 2.) Vigi roleclaims publicly to the town he just wanted to hit player X. 3.) Player X flips Innocent What do you do now? | ||
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On March 20 2009 10:42 semioldguy wrote: No... now we have two vigi kills that aren't going to be messed with. How can the Mafia mess with a Vigi hit? Do they have secret Medics or something? No what I was saying was in reference to the Vigi calling his hit out but not PMing Chuiu beforehand. You cleared that up. That still leaves the possiblity of hitting an innocent. Basically what I really want to know is - what is the point of a vigi calling out his hit? It sounds like this is all for the "what if the medic" prots him case - which I've already illustrated is a rare occurrence. The town does NOT need to know what the Vigis are doing yet. Leave them be. Also I am not speaking of this in terms of the plan that someone else came up with earlier. Drop the plan.... none of us are talking about that as a plan anymore. How is the Vigilante claiming a target that flips innocent any more of a loss that a Vigilante that doesn't claim and hits the same innocent target? If anything it helps that they called out beforehand because now we can have a little more direction in clue searching whereas before we are just blind and may misinterpret a clue. For example... the Vigi calls out his hit beforehand. If the number of innocents dead is Mafia killpower plus one, we will know he is a vigilante if we know that all Vigilantes are calling their targets. If it is still equal to Mafia kill power and that target died, then we haven't lost any knowledge, but we have made the mafia kill one less person to put suspicion on a now green player. How is either of these situations always a loss? Because it's revealing information that the mafia do NOT need to have so early. Yes let's ignore the fact that 1 shot Vigi that kills an innocent can't be confirmed because he has no other shot to confirm his innocence. Let's also forget that once he gets mixed up in the clues and has no codename attached he can be easily pinned as Mafia because ding - he can't be confirmed innocent! So back to the original point, why are we doing this? There are few blue roles this game and the mafia doesn't need to know many of them to win this game. Look at the entire game as a whole and I think you'd see why revealing Vigis is so blatantly a death trap: There are only 4 medics. Sheriff can't lock anyone up on Night 1. Vigis can't act until Night 2 and get 1 shot (this is according to what Qatol told me in PM even though it doesn't say so in Chuiu's OP. What does this all mean? All veteran players are sitting ducks. It's impossible to protect everyone night 1 and there's a very high chance a blue or two is going to die on the first night. Sheriff can't do anything about it and the Mafia don't have to worry about Vigis yet. Now do you see the problem? If we reveal Vigilantes the Mafia get the added bonus of not only sniping vets but cherry picking how to counteract the Vigilante. The second set of clues yet isn't up and if you throw Vigis in there it's just going to be a mess. There isn't going to be any direction in searching for clues because you don't even have enough clues yet to compare what you might get yet. It's pointless. They do NOT need to be known. Period. Secondly let's assume your second situation happened. If the KP is 6 and there are 7 deaths how does that prove the Vigi that claimed hit the target? It doesnt because you don't know if any other vigis acted either. Or what happens in the case where there are only 6 death and innocent dies that the Vigi called out but you didn't know that a medic stopped a mafia hit? You don't. You just said it yourself - you stopped 1 Mafia KP to put suspicion on a potential green, except you didn't stop the Mafia KP. If an innocent dies during the night the Mafia would gladly have it come from the Vigi because really, who cares how it happened? An innocent died. You've just given the Mafia the advantage of added confusion in the town now having to figure out if this guy is legit. Yes, the target would have to be highly suspected, which means that Medics likely won't be on those players anyway... however there is another role that may target those players with their abilities and then we would be wasting time and that player's ability. Which goes all the way back to what I said very early about anything involving confirming a Vigilante this way - you'd be involving too much time for too little gain. Why bother? What you're suggesting puts too much out there for little gain. Really, no one needs to know publicly who's going to be hit by a Vigilante before it happens. sure he can send his PM in before the Mafia, but it doesn't mean shit unless the guy flips MAFIA. If it's innocent - we go right back to square one. Putting too much out there? What are we putting out there exactly? Information for the town that the Mafia can't really do anything about unless it also helps us? How is the target claim any more of a loss than a Vigilante who doesn;t and teh target still flips over innocent? [/QUOTE] Read what I said above about looking at the game as a whole. the Mafia can do something about it. It's more than this order of operations thing - if the guy doesn't flip red it is OVER. The Mafia can play the card any number of ways and really just ask yourself if you like giving the Mafia options. I don't. | ||
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On March 20 2009 12:32 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: dreamflower, i like the idea of betrayal regarding the man that helped Chuiu up and then stabbed him. Why would Chuiu, the sheriff and hardened crime fighter, accept the help up from a criminal? It could be someone he recognized or knew that betrayed him by siding with the mafia. So we should keep an eye in the day posts for someone that kills in a deceitful way, by tricking his victims into thinking he is going to help them. I suggested a possible clue link from the 4th mafia that stayed behind, waiting for Incognito, to the name "Lurker." It sort of fits, but I want to bring it up again so others can see it. Also: what kind of person could run with their hands behind their head and also grab a gun and throw it to the side? Perhaps someone who is very "Versatile." It's possible but i don't think Chuiu usually writes clues like that. I'd imagine that mafioso to be hinting towards some kind of animal, like a monkey, or someone with multiple appendages. If it helps Versatile is also synonymous with being ambidextrous. However for both their hands to be behind their head, and then grab something suggests another pair of hands doesn't it? | ||
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I think what we can gather from it are two things: 1.) Mafia is definitely active if we assume RoL was really afk. That means some of them are reading the thread and updating everyone else accordingly. If we go with this idea, it's best to check who posted around the time SoG revealed his lynch like you said. 2.) RoL was active and feigned inactivity. Let's go with the idea that once they are caught they pop out the woodworks all of a sudden. This means their are some mafia laying low. But RoL is usually active so why would he go against his normal behavior? If so, is there any other suspicious person that is really playing very opposite their normal abilities? My guess would be to look for someone who is usually behind the scenes and quiet that's posting more than they normally would. | ||
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So now will you guys listen to that post I made way, way back before? | ||
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On March 21 2009 19:50 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I don't get it. Why would a bum collect ticket stubs? To me it sounded like somebody coming out of a movie theater or a play x_x edit: Scara delete that because it could be game breaking info | ||
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I would have rather have the town discussed who deserved to be jailed ahead of time, as we aren't sure I'd be successfully hit tonight. There's still a major piece of information missing for me to make a conclusion and for that to happen I'll need to know if any medics stopped a hit last night. I don't need for the medics to confirm this, I'd rather have the TARGET confirm it. As in, if you were hit last night and got a PM saying you survived publicly claim it asap. This doesn't hurt the town at all because obviously Mafia already know who they tried to hit. Their are no Veteran roles so if you didn't die you just had to be protected. Let the town know as soon as possible. | ||
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## I vote to lynch Humbug ## I vote for double lynch | ||
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huh? I don't understand how this means I distrust him. I just like the fact that Humbug being inactive is a better option for today's lynch. | ||
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On March 24 2009 09:03 Bockit wrote: Also, where is Ace? He's in the lockup but that doesn't stop him being able to speak. And being in lockup, he can't be killed tonight, which means it was his chance to go nuts with clue/behaviour/plans and be safe for another night. I've been watching the game. Honestly I don't really need to do much right now, the town seems to be doing okay | ||
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For now I'm gonna blindly follow MBH ^_^ | ||
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^_^ | ||
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^_^ | ||
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On March 28 2009 00:27 Night[Mare wrote: About redtoot's death, it was mentioned he was murdered by a man with a vietnamese tatoo. Could this point to aznvaliance? he already stated the nature of his nick: a brave asian. During the vietnnamese war, im sure there were many brave asians fighting. Maybe it's a weak clue but it's worth a shot. I see what you did there. | ||
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Lurker gets my next vote | ||
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On April 02 2009 07:15 Rice wrote: I vote for masterofchaos I vote for ahswtini same for me | ||
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I had a discussion with MBH and we both pegged SoG as a highly probable DT. The way he was trying to win the election ( he never fully committed to any plan but tried to stay active and in the limelight) made me think he had something to share. Then Ver mentioned he revealed he was a blue and that was that. If I was a DT I would have acted in somewhat the same way. To MoC: you don't need name value to win an election. SoG has never played on Tl.Net before and he got elected. Also, not many people even tried to get elected. It's much better to try all out than let 2 townies get those spots. Pretty much everything that could have went wrong this game for Mafia did go wrong and it started with the elections :/ | ||
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