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On March 20 2009 20:50 Bockit wrote:
Something about Caller too. If he is mafia, it means one of the 4 candidates BC, SOG, Pyrr or MBH are mafia. Why? The only reason for him to cancel his election is to get another mafia player into power. There are huge, huge positives for having a mafia player in that position of power (Rolechecks show up as sheriff/mayor and not mafia), so the only reason I can come up with for him to pull out like that would be to instead get another of the mafia players into office.
Which means we should look at who he voted for, and who else voted for them.
Keep in mind this only matters if he flips red, but if he does, then yeah, we might catch a crapload of mafia.
EDIT: Editing because I refuse to triple post:
Hahahahaha.
He voted for MBH, which is coincidentally who I voted for. Teach me to hit submit before checking these things.
I guess it's possible he voted off the mafia train so as to lessen the suspicion on himself aftr pulling out of the election.
Again this is all relevant only if Caller is in fact mafia.
If Caller is Mafia and pulled out because one of the other running candidates was also a Mafia we have to look at who his votes would be taking away from. I think it's safe to say if he was a mafia pull-out it's less likely that BC was the Mafia member he was puling out to make sure got in. BC was in a very clear lead at that point and prettymuch only the Mayor position was in question. Two mafia eleceted is better than one.
MBH was not in the running at the time if I recall correctly.
Which leaves Pyrrhuloxia and myself. We were pretty close in the voting all along, so Caller dropping out could very well have made a difference in potentially giving one of us or the other a slight edge to get in there. The difference between me being elected over him was only by one vote, and I had gotten two votes late in the day. Therefore if I flip over red I'd be suspicious of the couple late votes put on me as well as any switches from Pyrrhuloxia (I know there was one changed from him to BC fairly late, I'd have to go back and check to see who). Also CyanMachae switched his vote from BC to me pretty late too.
Keep in mind there were other Candidates at that point who were trying to run as well, but just never got much support or momentum. Nemy was one of them... there were others, I'll have to go back to check that as well.
Of course a lot of this suspicion is mostly under query if Caller flips over red.
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On March 20 2009 21:59 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 20:50 Bockit wrote:
Something about Caller too. If he is mafia, it means one of the 4 candidates BC, SOG, Pyrr or MBH are mafia. Why? The only reason for him to cancel his election is to get another mafia player into power. There are huge, huge positives for having a mafia player in that position of power (Rolechecks show up as sheriff/mayor and not mafia), so the only reason I can come up with for him to pull out like that would be to instead get another of the mafia players into office.
Which means we should look at who he voted for, and who else voted for them.
Keep in mind this only matters if he flips red, but if he does, then yeah, we might catch a crapload of mafia.
EDIT: Editing because I refuse to triple post:
Hahahahaha.
He voted for MBH, which is coincidentally who I voted for. Teach me to hit submit before checking these things.
I guess it's possible he voted off the mafia train so as to lessen the suspicion on himself aftr pulling out of the election.
Again this is all relevant only if Caller is in fact mafia. Firstly, I will admit that I have been very busy recently with exams. They are finished now so I can pay more attention. Secondly, I will also say that the reason I quit my campaign was that I had these exams, and felt there was no point in running without an effective campaign. Thirdly, I had a grand total of one vote. If I were mafia, I would most likely have more votes: after all, having started running before the roles, I could have a good reason for my innocence (ala aces game). The one vote also wouldn't help a mafia mayor get elected:p Although I will admit that my behavior is much different this round, I have a good reason for it.
One vote could have helped, as there was only a one vote separation between second and third places.
I believe it was motbob who voted for you and then eventually switched to Pyrrhuloxia once you withdrew from running.
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Sorry motbob... it was indeed malongo
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On March 21 2009 06:39 redtooth wrote:
Ok. So you log on TL and the first thing you see is that you have a PM. Whether you previously remembered you were in the mafia game or not doesn't matter because that shining "1" in the top left corner is going to alert you that your role has arrived. There's nobody on this forum that has enough patience to NOT check what role you got.
Lol... this is never the case for me.
I rarely check all my new PMs immediately because a lot of them are either Fantasy Starcraft related or people asking about progaming shirts or why they haven't gotten theirs yet or how long it's going to take, etc.
I wish I had a shining "1" because then I wouldn't have to read any complaints :p
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Someone mentioned user rank icons as clues... I'd hope not for a couple reasons. Rank icons can change, both on their own and manually by a moderator. Plus I don't want flying monkeys in the mafia thread. Staff icons generally don't change though.
Whoever suggested that as a clue (I don't remember exactly) I should go in and permanently make him a drone/probe/scv :p
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Mandalor is Mafia... I am 100% sure of this.
##I vote to lynch mandalor
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If I vote for a double lynch tomorrow does it count as four votes for that too?
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A few things....
(1) I am confident Mandalor is mafia because I am a Detective and I checked that shit out. He is also not the Godfather (unless he chose to appear as Mafia which seems very unlikely).
(2) Technically I am not 100% that he is Mafia, but I am 100% sure that he looks red to me. There are 3 Millers still, and 8 non-Godfather mafia members remaining. So statistically it's an 8 out of 11 or a 72.727% chance that he is Mafia, with the other portion being that he is a Miller.
(3) I know Detectives are not supposed to use a role check on day one. So before someone brings that up let me explain. + Show Spoiler [explanation] +When i read the rules the first time I do remember reading that the only Night One abilities could be Medics and Clue checks. When I went back to re-read the rules, I didn't see that clause and assumed that the Day One rule for Detectives must have been from another game that I read, had previously played in or am currently playing in.
So I PM'ed Chuiu asking, and since he didn't come up with all these rules himself he too forgot that clause. We noticed the mistake shortly after, but knowledge can't be undone. So we modified my ability to compensate some for the error. I won't get a role check tonight, and for all purposes the game will pretend that I used my role check tonight instead. So I won't be able to consecutively role check on nights three and four, since I would have used this one tonight and that would be impossible. Tonight I get a clue check from Day One Clues.
In my opinion our mistake actually weakens my abilities over the first couple days. I was ready to go for Mandalor before I role checked him, so if I was unable to do that it is likely I would have gone for him anyway and it seems likely that he could have been lynched today regardless of any additional info (of course I could just say this and there is no proof of that here, though there are a few others that were fully aware of my suspicions toward him). So basically my first two Nights of abilities are both based off of Day One information alone, whereas I would have had an additional Day of information for my Role-check and now I only get one role check over the next three Days.
Chuiu should not confirm whether this is true or not in my opinion, because if he confirms it to be true or false it would basically 100% confirm my innocence/guilt. He is a moderator (or outsider) and should not be making posts to influence the game in a way that 100% determines a player's role. Choose for yourselves whether you believe my story or if you think it's fabricated. I knew someone would inquire about it though so I thought I should include it here.
I think that covers everything, but if I missed something ask and I'll let you know.
(4) Another Detective Role-Claimed to me during the night. Though I personally think this was very unwise for obvious reasons, he told me that the shockwave clue did not point to Pika Chu. This does not necessarily confirm his innocence. There was the whole other segment that was looked at that could have been a clue for Pika Chu. The Detective might not be a Detective at all and if Pika Chu is ever lynched or evidence is proved on him later in the game that "Detective" could potentially be another caught Mafia member. At that point it would be likely that I reveal that player, obviously I won't reveal him now though, but will continue to act as his mouth.
(5) I feel it is relatively safe for me to role claim at this point. There are two Bodyguards still left which will keep the Mafia from being able to get me. I can now use my Detective abilities at the town's requests if I deem them to be the best intentions and uses of the ability. It doesn't really benefit the Mafia to know what my role is a whole lot; I think it benefits the town much more as it gives the town a whole lot more information and knowledge which the Mafia won't necessarily benefit from. Also when the Bodyguards do all expire, Mafia would likely choose me as a target at that point anyway to get rid of the Mayor regardless of whether or not I had a role.
(6) Bodyguards it is imperative that you keep yourselves secret, even and especially from me (and BC)
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I would take some time/effort to look for potential clues from Day Two... but it's nearly 5am here and I'm tired. I'm sleeping and I'll return tomorrow (which means that I'll probably be online another 30 minutes before actually going off to sleep :p).
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On March 21 2009 14:15 Ace wrote:
ah wow. BC can you explain why you put me in jail?
Seems to me like you even suggested it...
On March 19 2009 22:43 Ace wrote:
Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you - The Plan.
...
Camlito
Qatol
BloodyC0bbler
Ver
Caller
Bockit
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Ace (<~~ Hey look you're on this list!)
MrBabyHands
Versatile
Scaramanga
JL13
That's a list of twelve potential targets, for fun let's call them the The Zodiac Brave.
...
Also, we have to decide who the Sheriff should lock up for the night. It has to be one of these 12. No matter what we try to do, the medics can't protect everyone and the Mafia will stack kills even with RoL dead to take out some vets. Whoever we lock up out of the vets, has to be plain green Towny. Sure they might have to role claim but we can't afford to lock up any critical blue roles on Night 1.
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This was the post before edit (it was actually up for a bit before he took it down)...
On March 21 2009 20:50 malongo wrote:
Ok here i go first of all the 1 morning post, i bolded the parts i consider could be clues
-I tried to select small parts
-I tried to get as much info as i could, since i expected here to be clues to all mafia (at least subtle ones).
As night settled in the town of Liquidia all was silent. Except for the explosion in City Hall. The sheriff, Chuiu, ran out of his office across the street to see the building crumbling in on itself. He ran towards the building and stopped just at the steps when he spotted the mayor, Incognito, lying on the ground amongst the rubble. Chuiu helped Incognito to his feet and was briefed on the situation. A handful of individuals identifying themselves as part of the local mob family had destroyed City Hall in an attempt to kill Incognito. He got to the door just before the explosion and was caught in the shockwave. Chuiu took a few steps toward the building to see if he could find anyone in or around it. Then he spotted three running away from the back of the building. Chuiu ran after them and left Incognito alone.
He finally caught up with them a few moments later as they were getting in a car. He noticed they weren't leaving right away, what could they be waiting for? It didn't matter, he made a quick call for backup and decided to catch them off guard before they had a chance to leave. Approaching with gun drawn he demanded they get out of their car. Two of them exited. They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car. One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side. He tackled Chuiu to the ground and then ran over to the gun and armed himself with it. The other mafia, now between Chuiu and the armed one, walked slowly up to Chuiu. He reached out his hand as if to help Chuiu up, Chuiu grabbed his hand with a puzzled look on his face and began to get up. But then the mafia pulled him close and stabbed him in the chest. They left Chuiu to bleed to death and got back into the car and drove to City Hall.
Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead. He was shoved forward while hunched over pulling some concrete away and smashed his head into a large chunk of debris. He turned himself around to face the man and knew that whatever could be found was lost. With one shot to the head Incognito's life was ended.
As police began arriving one by one there were no witnesses or mafia to be found. Just the two bodies and the rubble where City Hall once stood. The town officials quickly set up a election to determine who would be the new Mayor and capable Sheriff to lead the town to safety from these dangerous criminals.
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Of course just because we have Mandalor doesn't mean we should stop doing other things (not that I'm accusing anyone of this, just want to make sure it doesn't happen).
We should still decide if we want to double lynch tomorrow.
Also all this time we are going to be saving discussing a lynch target can now be used for other areas like finding potential clues or where to go looking for the next red after Mandalor.
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##I vote for double lynch tomorrow
With the reasoning that we have so much time left in this day to start planning it.
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@ Bockit
I'd say Mandalor has a greater chance statistically to be a Miller than he has that chance based on behavioral analysis (meaning that I believe his actual chances of being Miller to be much less than my post of 18%). Just my opinion though.
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I need to use my cluecheck on a Day One clue 
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Reason for me only being able to clue check something from Day One written in my explanation in the spoiler of my Role-claiming post at the top of the previous page.
Though there was a detective who roleclaimed to me and we could have him potentially role-check on Rice.
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We're saying the same thing... I also think that with the behavioral analysis it is enough to largely toss aside the small chance he is a Miller.
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On March 22 2009 03:23 Pika Chu wrote:
So if Mandalor proves to be red, there can be no further doubts about semioldguy.
Technically I could still be mafia and just outing one of my own (especially since suspicion had already been placed on him) So there will likely be a whole lot less of a doubt, but it cannot be certain for you all.
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EPT
