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On March 18 2009 04:48 semioldguy wrote:
The other reason we can't tell which side an incarcerated player is on simply by looking at kill power, is that kill power isn't going to change half of the time from a single Mafia being removed. So we would need to rely on a role-check anyway.
which is why DTs are shit 
I'm going to explain this in depth in a few minutes
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"The other reason we can't tell which side an incarcerated player is on simply by looking at kill power, is that kill power isn't going to change half of the time from a single Mafia being removed. So we would need to rely on a role-check anyway."
So should we medic up on vigis hoping they will kill a mafia and survive the night? If the vigi called out someone the town has high suspicions of and the vigi is someone who has played in a way that looks legit maybe we should consider it because its the most likely way I see to have a publicly confirmed blue that can't be a GF.
And if the vigi hits a blue and survives the night with medic help or otherwise, a DT check would confirm they are either vigi or godfather. If they hit a blue we won't send them roles and if there are extra vigi calls we'll have a short list to find mafia from. So... what if we just have one vigi a day call out a hit and then be protected that night. We are bound to eventually hit a red and have someone we can trust. Cons are obviously that it may not be worth the medics focusing and it may take too long and allow too many deaths to set up - plus if mafia get some kills on medics and vigis early we may never get a red and have wasted time setting this up. Still, the unique characteristic that mafia can't kill themselves seems like the only exploitable way to make sure someone is 100% blue so maybe we should consider it. The idea of medics protecting vets could work as long as all vigis call their hits so we know they didn't trigger a medic but the medic and vet could both be mafia or one or both could be millers or godfather and it would be awfully tough to weed that out.
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I guess we only have 3 vigis so we aren't "bound to eventually hit a red and have someone we can trust". It's a big risk but I feel I gotta bounce ideas of off y'all.
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I put my vote with Cob. Don't douche this first game up for me man, or I'll go to Canada and hunt you down.
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On March 18 2009 09:41 Tricode wrote:
I put my vote with Cob. Don't douche this first game up for me man, or I'll go to Canada and hunt you down.
Not sure if your post would "qualify" to count as a valid vote.
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On March 18 2009 09:41 Tricode wrote:
I put my vote with Cob. Don't douche this first game up for me man, or I'll go to Canada and hunt you down.
ooh a smurf! any guesses on who this is?
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Uov zel-uov ocs hcu are cev iom, Irt doc e?
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Pyrrhuloxia, I understand that at some point you are concerned that my sudden posting style is similar to that of mafia. Let me put it this way:
a) If non-external forces had suddenly come up, and i was hiding because I was mafia, do you think I would make it pretty stupidly obvious, especially because I'm really zealous about activity?
b) I have finals. Tomorrow. Elections are also over soon, and between studying for and taking them, I won't have time to mount an effective campaign.
That said, I vote for semioldguy, because BC does the same electoral thing every game, and that worries me.
Will be more active tomorrow, signing off,
~me
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*gets up on podium*
So far, none of the mayor/sheriff candidates are getting my vote based on their plans. Not because their plans are bad per se, but because no one who is running is addressing a few critical flaws that the town has to deal with. Let's get this straight out off the bat:
Mafia have a a very big advantage this game. I'm going to explain it you right now.
First of all, we need to understand how DT's work along with their impact on the structure of the game. A quick reminder:
Detective - You may ask if a specific clue points to a specific person or if a specific sentence is a clue and receive a yes or no answer. You may also, four times during the game, ask for the role of a specific player. You may not use both during one day and you may not use more than two role checks consecutively.
Realize this and remember it - DTs can only use FOUR rolechecks in the game, and they can't even use them back to back. That's 12 RCs total but not consecutive. Any plan that involves confirming people has to involve DTs with the exception of behavior and clue analysis. Basically, there is no confirmation process this game, unless it's limited to very few people. Even if you had a line of people to confirm it would take forever because DTs can't use consecutive role checks. Let's also remember that this is even worse if a Detective somehow dies. But it get's worse...
Sheriff and Mayor will hide the roles of the elected players so that a Detective role check will show them as Sheriff/Mayor and nothing else.
This is the actual killer right here. In past Mafia games, elections were crucial to Town and Mafia because of not only the power they had, but protection from Night deaths. With Vigis being nerfed, Mafia don't have to worry about the latter too much. This is partly why they are a bit stronger but there's more.
Like I said, in past elections getting Mayor/Pardoner was critical. However for the Mafia it was VERY risky - A DT could just find you and out you. This was of course, just as risky for the DT - he'd surely die at some point in the game, but now Mafia have to go through layers of possible medic prot to get him/her and you can see how psychological this little game of cat and mouse becomes. The Mafia can run and hope to kill a DT outing them, or hope not to get checked. The Dt is finding them, has to figure out a way to live and out them. All of this of course takes time, but not too long in game day terms. Even so, if the Mafia got the Mayor/Pardoner seat the idea of not letting an influential Townie get it could be seen as a Pyrrhic victory. With the addition of a Godfather, this was put back into balance for the Mafia since it would take more than a DT rolecheck to get them if they could manage to get their GF elected which is a risky move in itself.
In this game there is no such risk. DTs can't even identify normal mafia if they get elected. In essence, there is no way short of clue and behavior analysis to figure out if an elected position is Mafia. Any plan revolving around confirmation with these 2 elected roles and DTs are out the window. PERIOD. The DTs this game are literally working alone until they can get a large circle on their own or hope to connect with other DTs. No elected official is to be given ANY critical info. They can come up with and follow plans but thats all there is to it. The DTs can't confirm them, and even if they could with rolechecks being shot to shit it would take too much time.
Detectives - you have to play this game with an extremely watchful eye. This time it's not just about investigating vet players, but choosing your checks ever more critically.
Sheriff/Mayor - I'm running too. I'm not going to lie and say I have some grand plan that just won't work like everyone else, but I'll let it be known that as always I'll point out any fatal mistakes that will kill the town, and I've been known to make good decisions at key times. I'd rather be Mayor though, because Sheriff seems like a waste of time for me (so far).
I'll also put my Mayor vote for Mr.Baby Hands. I've played numerous games with him and he's shown himself to know how to catch people in traps just as well as I can. He also has some sort of weird, sixth sense too. No one else seems to have anything that jumps out to me that makes me want to vote for them.
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I vote for Cob as Mayor/Sheriff then. Does that qualify?
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On March 18 2009 09:39 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
"The other reason we can't tell which side an incarcerated player is on simply by looking at kill power, is that kill power isn't going to change half of the time from a single Mafia being removed. So we would need to rely on a role-check anyway."
So should we medic up on vigis hoping they will kill a mafia and survive the night? If the vigi called out someone the town has high suspicions of and the vigi is someone who has played in a way that looks legit maybe we should consider it because its the most likely way I see to have a publicly confirmed blue that can't be a GF.
yes, this is true, however - someone the town is extremely suspicious of is not always red.
And if the vigi hits a blue and survives the night with medic help or otherwise, a DT check would confirm they are either vigi or godfather.
Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but Godfather won't show up on a DT check as Godfather, that's why he is the Godfather...
If they hit a blue we won't send them roles and if there are extra vigi calls we'll have a short list to find mafia from. So... what if we just have one vigi a day call out a hit and then be protected that night. We are bound to eventually hit a red and have someone we can trust. Cons are obviously that it may not be worth the medics focusing and it may take too long and allow too many deaths to set up - plus if mafia get some kills on medics and vigis early we may never get a red and have wasted time setting this up. Still, the unique characteristic that mafia can't kill themselves seems like the only exploitable way to make sure someone is 100% blue so maybe we should consider it. The idea of medics protecting vets could work as long as all vigis call their hits so we know they didn't trigger a medic but the medic and vet could both be mafia or one or both could be millers or godfather and it would be awfully tough to weed that out.
With one vigi a day claming and medics on him, there is no way to coordinate the meds. So we may end up with all meds on him or sometimes even none. I think it would allow mafia way too many free hits; they can probably count on the vig being protected and have less fear to spread the hits around to key players. Plus it only works if the vig hits a red. If the vig misses the negative consequences are rather harsh. If he lands a red then we've got a go to man for at least a little while. So i think it's extremely all-or-nothing, especially early on which unfortunately is when we need the most set up we can get.
Good point that vig claiming a hit allows medic to avoid protection on that person. But if the vig is only targeting suspicious players, why would the medic be planning to protect that person anyway?
One question: if we're really, really suspicious of someone, is it better to lynch them instead of using a one time vigi kill? I'm not really sure but i hope someone with more experience than i could answer this.
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3 Lions
United States3705 Posts
I vote BC for Sheriff/Mayor!
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The vigi confirmation idea is just all around bad. Too many holes in it for little gain.
1.) Whoever claims vigi can't be mafia or the plan is dead. Even if the DT could check them, thats 1 RC down the drain and doesn't even get us the real Vigi we need. Assuming this doesn't happen...
2.) Now we have to hit a suspected mafia, not a sure fire mafia. Why do this early in the game? Unless we get an RC it's useless. We'd need to wait for more clue analysis. Involving DTs means spreading out already thin Medic protection, which means Mafia is going to rape everyone else very fast.
3.) Assuming we have a legit Vigi and he hits a mafia...now what? Everyone send in their roles to him? Mafia doesn't have to fear another hit from him, there are only so many blue roles that they most can just claim Towny and go on with their lives. Once again DTs will take forever to sort out the liars and may very well be out of Rolechecks at this point. Mafia wins the long term battle on this one.
The Vigi plan isn't going to help until much later in the game when the town doesn't need too much Detective help.
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Ok a few things.
First of all, Ace: Rolechecks can be used consecutively, just not 3 times in a row. Reread the role. Checking people can happen faster than you indicated.
Second of all: There is an easy way of getting around the GF posing as a vigi idea (which is mucking up a potential vigi plan). Don't just rolecheck the vigi. The vigi AND the town knows where the hit went. All we have to do is have the vigi confirm that his hit went through and then look for the clue. Why the clue? Because vigis can be CLUECHECKED. If the town can't find a clue when they know who the clue has to link to, well we are in a lot more trouble than I thought.
Now the mafia can try to fake this, but it is unlikely that the mafia they want is actually linked to the hit they want. It is probably worth thinking about rolechecking the vigi as well just in case, but really, unless the mafia get pretty lucky, they can't control how the hit will go.
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@Ace:
"Sheriff and Mayor will hide the roles of the elected players so that a Detective role check will show them as Sheriff/Mayor and nothing else."
This is exactly why I've already said not to give elected peeps the roles. I'm trying to come up with a plan to figure out someone who can be trusted, feel free to tear it apart since I fear it will be nigh impossible to do this game.
@ infun
"yes, this is true, however - someone the town is extremely suspicious of is not always red."
We'll know if a red dies overnight that the vigi hit a red.
"Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but Godfather won't show up on a DT check as Godfather, that's why he is the Godfather..."
Right but we will have it narrowed to those two and if that vigi is still alive when the godfather dies we will know they are in the clear at that point.
"With one vigi a day claming and medics on him, there is no way to coordinate the meds."
There is no way to coordinate the meds in any case because the elected officers certainly can't be trusted. Granted, they are less likely to overlap if picking with intelligent guesses than if ganging up on the supposed vigi.
"it would allow mafia... to spread the hits around to key players"
There is no guarantee that early on medics won't overlap on one key player, be noobs and overlap on a bad player, or overlap on a key player who is mafia this game.
"If the vig misses the negative consequences are rather harsh."
The biggest risk I see is the mafia faking as a vigi and stringing us along by posing as a vigi attempting to kill blue after blue and having the mafia end up killing the same person. We would probably have to choose as a town who the vigi should kill because that way a fake vigi wouldn't be able to just choose someone who is not mafia everytime and claim every morning that the mafia had killed the same person in order to foil them. Vigis are always having to deal with the risk of killing a blue or green so as long as its a person the town is okay with attacking I don't think the negative consequences are that bad, however early on we are probably unlikely to have an extra kill to want to give to a vigi that might be fake when we could double lynch - we are also unlikely to even have someone to double lynch.
"But if the vig is only targeting suspicious players, why would the medic be planning to protect that person anyway?"
They wouldn't, I'm just pointing out a possible epic town fail to make sure it doesn't happen.
"So i think it's extremely all-or-nothing, especially early on which unfortunately is when we need the most set up we can get."
It is all or nothing but it's the only chance at proven innocence I've been able to see. Seems less risky than other strats ive read although still very risky. Hope someone finds something better.
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On March 18 2009 10:17 Ace wrote:
The vigi confirmation idea is just all around bad. Too many holes in it for little gain.
1.) Whoever claims vigi can't be mafia or the plan is dead. Even if the DT could check them, thats 1 RC down the drain and doesn't even get us the real Vigi we need. Assuming this doesn't happen...
2.) Now we have to hit a suspected mafia, not a sure fire mafia. Why do this early in the game? Unless we get an RC it's useless. We'd need to wait for more clue analysis. Involving DTs means spreading out already thin Medic protection, which means Mafia is going to rape everyone else very fast.
3.) Assuming we have a legit Vigi and he hits a mafia...now what? Everyone send in their roles to him? Mafia doesn't have to fear another hit from him, there are only so many blue roles that they most can just claim Towny and go on with their lives. Once again DTs will take forever to sort out the liars and may very well be out of Rolechecks at this point. Mafia wins the long term battle on this one.
The Vigi plan isn't going to help until much later in the game when the town doesn't need too much Detective help.
From past experience mafia rarely claims vigi, if ever. And one can tell if a kill is mafia or vigilante, usually-mafias in the past have been themed, while vigilantes are of a different theme. More importantly, mafias will give themselves away, especially if the targets in question are inactives or highly suspicious. For instance, if Tim is highly suspicious, and we send Bob after Tim, if Mafia tries to fake the kill it will show up, and "save" us a vigilante kill from revealing a suspicious person. On the other hand, if a legitimate vigilante kills Tim, we have our confirmed Vig. Regardless of whatever role the person hit was. At which point, the vigilante gets incarcerated (which protects him) and can arrange the roles. If Mafia fakes, it is likely that they will stick out like a sore thumb. Sure, it may add some confusion, but at however many mafia they sacrifice. More importantly, people with roles tend not to be inactives. And even if mafia claims Towny, it doesn't matter, because now we have the ability to coordinate night actions, and we can limit the pool of suspected mafia to that of just the townies (unless Godfather impersonates a blue, which although smart, if he's not careful, he may give himself away very easily).
And we don't have to rolecheck everybody, we can just use selective information and the use of roles to try and trip up mafia impersonating as blues.
edit: yeah I know I have finals, but I'm taking a break from studying. I hate calculus.
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On March 18 2009 10:20 Qatol wrote:
Ok a few things.
First of all, Ace: Rolechecks can be used consecutively, just not 3 times in a row. Reread the role. Checking people can happen faster than you indicated.
Second of all: There is an easy way of getting around the GF posing as a vigi idea (which is mucking up a potential vigi plan). Don't just rolecheck the vigi. The vigi AND the town knows where the hit went. All we have to do is have the vigi confirm that his hit went through and then look for the clue. Why the clue? Because vigis can be CLUECHECKED. If the town can't find a clue when they know who the clue has to link to, well we are in a lot more trouble than I thought.
Now the mafia can try to fake this, but it is unlikely that the mafia they want is actually linked to the hit they want. It is probably worth thinking about rolechecking the vigi as well just in case, but really, unless the mafia get pretty lucky, they can't control how the hit will go.
Ok even if they can use them up to 4 times - there is a limit. What if the town has to check multiple people? How do we do it? The DTs can't coordinate and there is no way to know who needs to be checked first. The DTs are gimped on this one and there is no way around it.
There *is* no way of getting around it. And this isn't just talking about the GF - it's about any Mafia really. It goes back to the same idea of having to use DTs and risking them or going off an even worse move of hoping the mafia mess up. but ok let's assume the GF fakes vigi.
GF comes out and says he's vigilante and will hit X player at night. Let's not even begin to think how we've come this conclusion that X should be hit. If X is 100% mafia we shouldn't be using the Vigi hit anyway. This means X has to be likely mafia. Which means he can be Miller/Townie/Blue or whatever. As long as he isn't 100% mafia, the GF just hits him and it goes through - how does the town avoid this? Even with a cluecheck how do you know who the hit gets linked to from the Mafia side?
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I vote for semioldguy
Haven't read through everything in the thread, but he seems to have the best ideas
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On March 18 2009 10:30 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 10:20 Qatol wrote:
Ok a few things.
First of all, Ace: Rolechecks can be used consecutively, just not 3 times in a row. Reread the role. Checking people can happen faster than you indicated.
Second of all: There is an easy way of getting around the GF posing as a vigi idea (which is mucking up a potential vigi plan). Don't just rolecheck the vigi. The vigi AND the town knows where the hit went. All we have to do is have the vigi confirm that his hit went through and then look for the clue. Why the clue? Because vigis can be CLUECHECKED. If the town can't find a clue when they know who the clue has to link to, well we are in a lot more trouble than I thought.
Now the mafia can try to fake this, but it is unlikely that the mafia they want is actually linked to the hit they want. It is probably worth thinking about rolechecking the vigi as well just in case, but really, unless the mafia get pretty lucky, they can't control how the hit will go. Ok even if they can use them up to 4 times - there is a limit. What if the town has to check multiple people? How do we do it? The DTs can't coordinate and there is no way to know who needs to be checked first. The DTs are gimped on this one and there is no way around it. There *is* no way of getting around it. And this isn't just talking about the GF - it's about any Mafia really. It goes back to the same idea of having to use DTs and risking them or going off an even worse move of hoping the mafia mess up. but ok let's assume the GF fakes vigi. GF comes out and says he's vigilante and will hit X player at night. Let's not even begin to think how we've come this conclusion that X should be hit. If X is 100% mafia we shouldn't be using the Vigi hit anyway. This means X has to be likely mafia. Which means he can be Miller/Townie/Blue or whatever. As long as he isn't 100% mafia, the GF just hits him and it goes through - how does the town avoid this? Even with a cluecheck how do you know who the hit gets linked to from the Mafia side?
As far as I know, mafia doesn't choose which clues pop out for kills. So if you cluecheck the person that kills the GF's target, and it doesn't match up with the Godfather, the godfather is screwed. That's a 1/10 chance of a successful deception, and if the clue is blatantly obvious it's a mafia (i.e. it appears twice or is of the same theme as mafia) the godfather is screwed again. So it is very unlikely the GF will go through with the hit. Keep in mind also that the GF has to target a suspicious character, or an inactive-either case, the hit, if it goes through, will help us whittle suspect lists while maintaining Town KP. If GF targets an important person or whatnot, he's exposing himself to massive amounts of flak. And why would GF necessarily roleclaim Vigilante? As soon as the GF's clues appear twice, he's dead.
This applies to any mafia who tries to fake DT/Vig: the clues will get them much more likely than not. The risk just isn't worth it.
As for the DTs rolechecking, we don't need to rolecheck until we have the whole Vigilante mess organized. At which point, the Vigilante can organize rolechecks.
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EPT
