|
United States7488 Posts
This plan is also prone to weaknesses but I'll throw it out there in case it can be refined in some way. No harm in brainstorming.
Part 1)
This will involve a likely sacrifice of a DT. We wait until one of the DTs gets a confirmed clue or role check. Hopefully this doesn't take more then two nights. The first DT to do this would have to publicly say (or say through someone else he might have rolechecked as innocent) that ___ person is Mafia because of ____. (then there are two options from here)
Part 2a) Then one vigilante comes forward and proclaims that he will kill the Mafia that night (sending in the request during the day before he makes his post claiming he did). The medics will need to protect him in hopes that the mafia don't focus on him enough to survive the night while the Sheriff must that night order the Vigilante's incarceration. Morning comes and we get the result of a successful Mafia death or a failure.
Part 2b) A Vigilante PMs the Sheriff that they are going to kill that someone. The sheriff will incarcerate that player that night and in the morning we find someone in the jail cell and a mafia dead (best case). The problem with this is (1) The sheriff could be red and make sure that Vigilante dies from a mafia attack "accidentally"; (2) the sheriff is red and doesn't comply and we lynch him; or (3) the mafia actually hit that Vigilante accidentally.
At this point we begin a day with a confirmed townie in the jail cell who cant be lynched or killed the following night, allowing him at minimum two rounds to coordinate everyone.
This only works if a Mafia member dies in the night and still has potential to fall apart in various places.
|
On March 18 2009 11:14 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 10:59 Ace wrote:On March 18 2009 10:50 Qatol wrote:
How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect.
Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that.... ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance? If the vigi turns out to be confirmed good the unsorted list will probably yield him some sort of goodies - if everyone does their duty and sends in their role the mafia will have to fake role claim at least one of every blue or there will be someone to pass it on toward. He'll be able to check at least some stuff I imagine and yeah that makes him a big target but this has still been a legitimate goal of the town every game despite the risk it carries. Even if the mafia use 100% of their KP to take him out, that's a ton of KP to kill one person and helps out the town a bunch in catching up to the bad guys.
If the mafia use all their KP to take the guy out the info is lost. Remember it takes some DAYS to even get the info out to DTs to sort it. He'll be dead by the second night he's out. The mafia have more to gain than the town by faking every blue role. Even at the loss of 3 members, the town loses all their info, half or even more of the legit DT rolechecks and a few days on a plan that at best gets us less than even to where the mafia are now.
|
United States7488 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:59 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 10:50 Qatol wrote:
How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect.
Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that.... ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance?
He will have one free night to organize in which he will survive until morning. Depending on how many of each turn up he can (1) have all the Detectives role check each other in a circle to see who can actually role check; (2) have each detective role check all of another group/special role (which would both confirm the detective as being a detective and the other roles as being safe too) Of course if there were one extra in each category then there would be the chance that the one extra mafia from both sides would be paired up and be able to easily fool us.
|
On March 18 2009 11:11 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 10:59 Qatol wrote:On March 18 2009 10:54 Ace wrote:1.) Who are you going to coordinate through? I keep asking this and no one can give a solid answer except "a Vigi" which as we've seen has a ton of problems and takes a lot of time. 2.) If we get someone that is 100% mafia, save the vigi hit and lynch the mafia the next day or on a double lynch unless it's like some ultra crucial timing that reduces mafia KP. Why waste a vigi hit? 3.) the mafia never have been able to control what clues they get, or how they get linked. What I was saying is that as the town you don't know who the mafia are so it's pointless to try and assume how the clues are done. 4.) Why can't the mafia fake medic/bg/dt? Just because the Godfather picked Vigi? Thats not making sense. It's in their best interest to make the DTs run out of rolechecks so they can just 1a2a3a the town in the midgame. How can the GF call the miss if he's faking Vigi? He can't miss  1. You coordinate through the vigi that you JUST CONFIRMED with your mafia hit + cluecheck. Alternatively, you can coordinate through a medic/innocent combo from a save. 2. Why not use the vigi hit? Would you rather risk the vigi dying? 3. I have already addressed this. 4. They can. However, they show up to a check if they do it. This plan only needs checks if it is close to succeeding. Otherwise they can be used elsewhere. GF can't miss, but a vigi can if the mafia hits the target too. So the GF can "miss" if he's faking vigi 1.) what CLUECHECK? The Vigi is going to show up the same night as Mafia codenames IF we even get codenames. So how are you going to know which is which? You can't. Then you still have to find the right clue. And you still are assuming that your highly suspect person is going to flip Mafia. If he doesn't thats it - it's over. 2.) The vigi wouldn't risk dying if none of us know who he is. I'd rather something happen in the day that makes someone plainly obviously mafia, Vigi hitting that guy, and then finding a way to prove it was him rather than going to the reverse option which is just terrible in this game. 3.) actually you haven't. We know the mafia can't control what clues they get - they never have in any mafia game. But since you don't know who the mafia are, you can't tell who the clues point to or how they are done. So when you throw the Vigi in there you just have one big mess and no way of figuring it out. 4.) how do you know the mafia are going to be checked by faking another role? Remember, the DTs are going to have to check every other list too, and this says nothing about how many rolechecks they will have left at that point. Faking blue roles is a very legit strat this game. and once again - the GF will never miss. He's better off hitting if he wants the town's trust. If his target is Mafia, which he could never hit then he would have never fake claimed vigi to begin with and let the plan continue so they could just ruin it later down the line.
1) If they call out in advance and only they call out and we agree they should call out, then if a red dies we don't even have to clue check them we know they are good because mafia can't hit mafia.
2) I doubt anything would happen in the day that would obviously make someone mafia and then not have them killed in a lynch or double lynch. If 3 mafia out themselves accidentally in one day they are Team Noobzors and we'll win regardless.
If you can give a way for them to prove in reverse they made a hit I'll entertain it.
3) The vigi calls out who they are going to kill. So, if a vigi claims to hit a blue/green, you look for the clue connected to the person they killed and see if it points to the vigi and that the people dying that night outnumbered the mafia KP. I don't think I'd send my role into a vigi confirmed this way though. A dt could clue check them though to make sure and at least start up a private circle with them if this happened.
4) The beauty of this vigi plan is that it gives us at least a chance to confirm a blue without using a DT (we don't have a DT that we can trust in the beginning anyway). I don't see any other plan giving us even a chance for trustworthy organization.
|
On March 18 2009 11:15 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 11:06 Qatol wrote:On March 18 2009 10:59 Ace wrote:On March 18 2009 10:50 Qatol wrote:
How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect.
Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that.... ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance? I argue that none of your "holes" matter at all. If the vigi misses, oh well. We still hit a high probability target. We used a vigi the way a vigi should be used. This plan isn't something that MUST happen. It is an option. Furthermore, the vigi can still get confirmed if the town takes out the GF. Alternatively, the other vigi can step up and take HIS shot. Oops! He missed again. Except there are only 2 vigis. We get a free set of roleclaims for the vigi role. Is that really a bad thing? If the vigi hits mafia, he gets to coordinate medic protection. Why would he put all of the medics on himself? He forces the mafia to play guessing games with KP. Last time I checked that was a good thing? There is no martyr this game, no vet,no jacks, and very few medics. There are only so many guesses to go around. But ok, go ahead and ignore my warnings. If the vigi misses on a high probability target, now we have to hope we kill the GF and that the original vigi wasn't a normal mafia faking it. Then we also have to hope another vigi steps up, takes his shot, and that the guy he hit flips mafia thereby confirming him instead. but if he misses neither of them are confirmed, 1 person is surely lying if the GF claimed also, and then we trust BOTH of them even though we don't know which one is legit. Yes, let's go with this idea.
If they both miss we DON'T TRUST EITHER OF THEM. It's not that hard to understand - if they miss we are neutral to them we sure as hell don't send them roles and if we can exonerate them or implicate them later we do it. Simple as that.
|
On March 18 2009 11:18 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 11:14 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On March 18 2009 10:59 Ace wrote:On March 18 2009 10:50 Qatol wrote:
How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect.
Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that.... ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance? If the vigi turns out to be confirmed good the unsorted list will probably yield him some sort of goodies - if everyone does their duty and sends in their role the mafia will have to fake role claim at least one of every blue or there will be someone to pass it on toward. He'll be able to check at least some stuff I imagine and yeah that makes him a big target but this has still been a legitimate goal of the town every game despite the risk it carries. Even if the mafia use 100% of their KP to take him out, that's a ton of KP to kill one person and helps out the town a bunch in catching up to the bad guys. If the mafia use all their KP to take the guy out the info is lost. Remember it takes some DAYS to even get the info out to DTs to sort it. He'll be dead by the second night he's out. The mafia have more to gain than the town by faking every blue role. Even at the loss of 3 members, the town loses all their info, half or even more of the legit DT rolechecks and a few days on a plan that at best gets us less than even to where the mafia are now.
This plan takes no DTs to get to a confirmed blue. Without this the DTs are going to be islands unto themselves unable to avoid overlapping anyway.
|
On March 18 2009 11:11 Ace wrote:
1.) what CLUECHECK? The Vigi is going to show up the same night as Mafia codenames IF we even get codenames. So how are you going to know which is which? You can't. Then you still have to find the right clue. And you still are assuming that your highly suspect person is going to flip Mafia. If he doesn't thats it - it's over.
2.) The vigi wouldn't risk dying if none of us know who he is. I'd rather something happen in the day that makes someone plainly obviously mafia, Vigi hitting that guy, and then finding a way to prove it was him rather than going to the reverse option which is just terrible in this game.
3.) actually you haven't. We know the mafia can't control what clues they get - they never have in any mafia game. But since you don't know who the mafia are, you can't tell who the clues point to or how they are done. So when you throw the Vigi in there you just have one big mess and no way of figuring it out.
4.) how do you know the mafia are going to be checked by faking another role? Remember, the DTs are going to have to check every other list too, and this says nothing about how many rolechecks they will have left at that point. Faking blue roles is a very legit strat this game.
and once again - the GF will never miss. He's better off hitting if he wants the town's trust. If his target is Mafia, which he could never hit then he would have never fake claimed vigi to begin with and let the plan continue so they could just ruin it later down the line.
1. The cluecheck you use on the guy who claimed vigi and said that X target would die? Look for a clue near that kill? You have the kill + the guy who made the kill. How hard is it to the connect the dots?
2. The vigi is ALWAYS at risk of dying. Moreso since they help the town so much with their hits.
3. Again, I point out that we have the guy who claims to have made the kill, we have the clue ABOUT the kill, we have an ability which lets us verify that the clue was about that kill.
4. I don't. However, if they trigger one of the other conditions which requires a rolecheck (hitting an established player -> check that player and the medic), then they will be checked. Unless you are talking about some other list and I am missing something. In which case, please tell me where you're getting a list of rolecheck candidates.
If the GF doesn't miss, the cluecheck won't work out and we kill him?
On March 18 2009 11:15 Ace wrote:
There is no martyr this game, no vet,no jacks, and very few medics. There are only so many guesses to go around.
But ok, go ahead and ignore my warnings. If the vigi misses on a high probability target, now we have to hope we kill the GF and that the original vigi wasn't a normal mafia faking it. Then we also have to hope another vigi steps up, takes his shot, and that the guy he hit flips mafia thereby confirming him instead. but if he misses neither of them are confirmed, 1 person is surely lying if the GF claimed also, and then we trust BOTH of them even though we don't know which one is legit.
Yes, let's go with this idea.
Do you have a better one? You seem to be enjoying yourself at shooting down other plans. This plan has a chance to work and the consequences are not that bad for having it as an option.
Why would we trust both players? Your posts stopped making sense a while ago.
While I agree that there are only so many guesses, who is to say that the circle cannot confirm someone else in the time that there is a confirmed townie? If that doesn't happen, you keep the medic protection on the heavy side and see if the mafia want to fight through it. The mafia is sacrificing a lot of KP to try and take this person out.
|
Also a confirmed vigi wouldn't have to hold the medics forever, just long enough to confirm someone to pass the info on to and he could still bluff with medic placement.
|
On March 18 2009 11:02 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 10:50 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Thing is: say a legit vig claims a hit, and overnight turns out that person was green/blue. Mafia can now kill the vig for free, because it reveals no new information to us. Or they let him live and allow suspicion to develop. Even some mafia/players could push a case to say that the vig must have been faking and start a bandwagon to lynch, then we lost a lynch and a vig and a vig hit and a bystander. You cannot count on such a bandwagoning attempt to be immediately transparent - i think the power of bandwagoning has been proven in previous games.
If the Vig is going to kill a blue/green the mafia will probably let him do it. If the vig is going to kill red they will probably try to kill the vig to prevent organization. If the vig gets killed after killing a blue/green its not the end of the world since they had no power left anyway. If the mafia bandwagon to kill the vig who killed a blue/green I think they will look suspicious - we aren't giving the roles to a vig unless they hit red. On the fourth day if a vigi comes forward saying they are a vigi when we've already had 3 claim then we have a short list from which we can find at least one mafia and if we accidentally kill a blue/green while using clues to sift through it at least they are ones that killed how the town wanted them to (have to make sure we hold them to this so the mafia won't want to fake a vigi and then be asked to kill a red that they can't kill) and are now powerless.
Yeah, if the vig is smart he will send his hit to Chuiu before he claims in the thread, to ensure the hit goes through no matter if he is targeted by mafia. I guess I just think the consequences of missing are worse than you think they are. But still this takes a lot of time, 4 days is a lot of kp for the mafia. I am not as against the plan as Ace is, but I still don't like it. You might be right though, that it is the best chance we have.
Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 10:50 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I understand we have precious few options for confirming blues, but the adequacy of the plans so far leads me to question whether it is even worth it to bother with them in this round. I suspect it will be better to hold our elected officials to an agenda that solely benefits town - under pressure of lynch if they screw up. This could help minimize any damage done by a possible elected mafia, because an elected townie will act for the towns benefit anyway unless he is an idiot. But then we just screwed up by electing an idiot etc.
I do agree that the vigi plan is a long shot however I don't think it is mutually exclusive with holding elected officials to the demands of the town under pain of lynch - that should happen regardless.
That's true, i don't know why i said it like that. They are not mutually exclusive, but consider cost v benefit of vigi plan vs. not doing anything at all and perhaps it comes out about even.
The thread is exploding now and I'm like 20 posts behind so this reply is probably late.
|
On March 18 2009 09:57 Caller wrote:
That said, I vote for semioldguy, because BC does the same electoral thing every game, and that worries me.
Anyone know what he means by this?
|
Of course I have a better plan, I'm just not going to reveal it yet because I can't. But I sure as hell won't watch the town follow a plan that's going to put us in the grave. As a responsible townie it's my job to poke holes in any plan until it's revised to the point it can't be destroyed so easily. If not, then we just abandon the plan - like we should be doing with this one.
@Inf: You know if I'm against some plan in a Mafia game and if you assume I'm innocent - there has to be a really good reason right?
Look at the plan and tell me after going through all the "if this happens, and then if this and this and this" happens and it all comes out what is the point? It's like no one realizes this game is designed so that there is no way to have early central organization as easy as before, but you guys are going to kill yourselves and all the rest of us in trying. right now it's better to see how the this election and the first day plays out while letting the DTs do whatever it is they want to do.
|
Sydney2287 Posts
Ugh I hate it when people do this. But just checking in so I'm not presumed inactive, goddamn I've got a lot to read I'll get to it when I get home in about 6 hours or so!
|
On March 18 2009 11:58 Ace wrote:
Of course I have a better plan, I'm just not going to reveal it yet because I can't. But I sure as hell won't watch the town follow a plan that's going to put us in the grave. As a responsible townie it's my job to poke holes in any plan until it's revised to the point it can't be destroyed so easily. If not, then we just abandon the plan - like we should be doing with this one.
@Inf: You know if I'm against some plan in a Mafia game and if you assume I'm innocent - there has to be a really good reason right?
Look at the plan and tell me after going through all the "if this happens, and then if this and this and this" happens and it all comes out what is the point? It's like no one realizes this game is designed so that there is no way to have early central organization as easy as before, but you guys are going to kill yourselves and all the rest of us in trying. right now it's better to see how the this election and the first day plays out while letting the DTs do whatever it is they want to do.
I had a plan that I didn't want to share and so I can definitely think of reasons you wouldn't want to yet so that idea isn't too sketch but you are continuing to attack a strawpersyn argument here. Our plan of trying to see if he can confirm a vigi by having them get lucky with a red hit wouldn't tie up a single DT check. If the vigi doesn't get lucky we are hardly in the grave; we're not going to hand roles over to a vigi that isn't 100% innocent. I realize the game is designed to not have early centralization but holding elected officials accountable and playing the game with respect to that is not mutually exclusive with spacing out vigis and trying to get a verified blue with a list they can work with and try to pass on. More information can only help us - if the vigi gets killed after making their hit they were powerless at that point anyway. We don't necessarily have to have the vigis use their kills asap just make sure only one goes away but sooner would be better imo because we are always toying with the risk they die before they can do anything.
|
On March 18 2009 11:58 Ace wrote:
@Inf: You know if I'm against some plan in a Mafia game and if you assume I'm innocent - there has to be a really good reason right?
That's the thing, I would imagine. It's getting harder not to entertain an inkling of suspicion that you might be Mafia. After all, there's no reason to assume that the experienced players will all be good guys. Not that some of your objections haven't been entirely reasonable (I say "some" because the others are going to take some rereading on my part before I understand them), and I'm not casting aspersions and don't want anyone to start pulling out pitchforks and nooses. But there's something to be said about not being a seething morass of negativity right away.
On March 18 2009 11:58 Ace wrote:It's like no one realizes this game is designed so that there is no way to have early central organization as easy as before, but you guys are going to kill yourselves and all the rest of us in trying. right now it's better to see how the this election and the first day plays out while letting the DTs do whatever it is they want to do.
This, I agree with. I know this game was purposely designed so that it'd be hard to set up any organization around confirmed innocents on Day One. The old idea of setting up a master plan for the town, like in the old games, won't work the same. So, I hope to see more ideas from people so that we can work out the logic, but not to have any of them implemented quite yet.
I have the feeling someone's going to post something saying the exact same thing I did while I'm writing this. Erk.
I vote for semioldguy, by the way. Bloodycobbler seems assured of an elected position, so I'd like to have another official with that kind of articulacy, intelligence and common sense.
Edit: Fixed tag.
|
On March 18 2009 11:58 Ace wrote:
@Inf: You know if I'm against some plan in a Mafia game and if you assume I'm innocent - there has to be a really good reason right?
Look at the plan and tell me after going through all the "if this happens, and then if this and this and this" happens and it all comes out what is the point? It's like no one realizes this game is designed so that there is no way to have early central organization as easy as before, but you guys are going to kill yourselves and all the rest of us in trying. right now it's better to see how the this election and the first day plays out while letting the DTs do whatever it is they want to do.
Yeah... if I assume that you're innocent 
You're too smart a player for me to comfrotably assume anything about you ^^
If dt's are going to do whatever they want, I bet they will go rolecheck for the high profile guys and maybe the smurfs. Maybe 1 or 2 will save their rolecheck for day 2. Then we could have some more fun day 1 dt roleclaims!
|
I'm pretty sure neither semioldguy or BC are going to win any elections just yet. A lot of people haven't checked into the game yet.
|
So many pages, but heh.
I vote for SemiOldGuy
|
On March 18 2009 11:58 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 09:57 Caller wrote:
That said, I vote for semioldguy, because BC does the same electoral thing every game, and that worries me.
Anyone know what he means by this?
never mind, it was deja vu. T_T
as for the vig plan, yeah.
Although to be honest, I don't quite understand what's wrong even if the hit is a non-mafia. Again, the clues determine a lot, and if the clues match, the person is either definitely vig or definitely mafia. Otherwise, the person is definitiely mafia, and he dies. To prove that a person is vig, one quite simply puts medic protection (not incarcerates) him. If his name appears in the clues again, he's mafia. If not, likely he's a vig. At which point he can be lynched/incarcerated.
There are just so many ways for the mafia fake to go wrong I doubt it would be worth it.
|
Current vote tally (based upon Infundibulum's last count):
BC (10)
Qatol
Jyvblamo
Ver
Fishball
Chaoser
Pyrrhuloxia
Scaramanga
Zeks
3 Lions
Tricode
Pyrrhuloxia (5)
Fusionsdf
Mikeymoo
Teejing
LaxerCannon
Malongo (Switched from Caller)
Semioldguy (10)
0cz3c
Mista
Pika Chu
Phrujbaz
BWDero
Truthbringer
Caller
TranceStorm
dreamflower
CynanMachae (changed his vote from BC)
Mr.BabyHands (1)
Ace
Hope this is accurate...
|
motbob
United States12546 Posts
I vote Pyrrhuloxia because I think semioldguy is mafia. Something about his posts don't sit right with me... I'm probably wrong.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
