EPTToo many bullets being fired in a glass house, breaking pretty windows T_T
TL Mafia 3 [Night 5] - Page 2
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fanatacist
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Too many bullets being fired in a glass house, breaking pretty windows T_T | ||
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On November 03 2008 17:19 Mandalor wrote: Did Folca use his second role check already? I've read through the last pages, but probably missed it. If you haven't, I suggest checking either nemY or SoleSteeler. It really only is a gut feeling I have, but first of all they posted the exact same things: "I abstain, because I don't have a clue. Good Luck to the town blah blah." Sort of. It's the exact same thing 80% of us mafia did at the beginning of the last game before we had a plan. I vote to lynch Folca, for now. I have to disagree with you. People abstain from voting when they don't agree with the current trends in the game (the current Folca vs Ace thing is kind of ugly and fishy to me, it seems a bit too weird that someone would impale themselves on the cross for 1 Mafia kill. There is definitely a ploy in there to fuck the town over, imo.). Mafia would be more likely to play along with the plans in motion so as to mix themselves in with the crowd. At least that's how I see it. EDIT: Good night all. | ||
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On November 04 2008 05:26 RtS)Night[Mare wrote: to all people abstaining, abstaining hurts the detectives' job. Please, i encourage to vote for either of the 3 prime candidates for lynching, with is Ace/Folca/Decaf. DT'S Cant check abstain lists, and splitting into to many candidates will make it useless. if you want to really abstain vote for the lowest vote count candidate. Right now i think folca is most likely lynched so vote for ace or decaf I guess you're right, I didn't think that the abstain list can't be checked. Fine. I feel bad for Chuiu, though, always re-counting votes. I'm voting for Ace. Like I said, I didn't really want to vote, but since it really will hurt the town I guess... Here is my reasoning on all current suspects, hopefully many of you will take the time to read this and will agree: 1) Ace Ace is smart, active, and a constant force in Mafia games. What does this mean? That he is always a threat to the opposite side. Other people have listed the possible motives or combinations of roles for the Folca vs. Ace collision, so I won't go too in depth on it. If he is Mafia, he is pretty fucking good at covering up his intent, or somehow making the Mafia's benefit seem like the town's benefit. I'm not 100% on his innocence (maybe like 50%). I am not 100% sure that it's a good idea to lynch a strong player like him, but I am 100% sure that he is capable of some shit like this. The clues pointing to him are interesting ones (the trusting authority being a possible connection to last game's mayor... it would be a great clue). Given that I assume he has the ability to trick us all and mislead us into doing Mafia's dirty work, I am voting Ace. 2) Folca Folca had some good posts, some terrible posts (in terms of logic). Also his hyper-aggression is a bit unsettling, seeing as he only allegedly used one check and only one person... Who also happens to be one of the most useful players in the game. It would be very beneficial for the Mafia to kill off Ace even if he is just green at the cost of one of their own, because their killing power does not decrease, and on top of that the people Ace defended are now up for suspicion as well, diluting the list of actual Mafias on the suspect list. However, all this doesn't eliminate the possibility that he is just inconsistently smart and is actually a DT. If this is the case, then losing him would also damage the town, as losing a DT for a Mafia is not a fair trade, even if the town chooses to go after decaf or MG after and find them to be red. At this rate, we'd lose all our DTs pretty fast... I strongly advise all other DTs to not do what Folca did. This brings me back to the point that a good DT with the town's best interest in mind wouldn't act like he did, though he is like 15 (not that age matters, but it might) and inconsistently smart like I said, it makes his legitimacy suspicious to me. Maybe I am making a long stretch in this one, but I think it's interesting to find little clue connections like this: http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/24404.jpg?1162781569 ^ From Folca's profile. "Many in the crowd were excessively enthusiastic about the lynching and many were grave and quiet." Doesn't that look like the cats in the picture? Oh well... Still don't want to risk losing a potential DT. 3) Decafchicken I think that the evidence for him is ridiculous, and he has done absolutely nothing else incriminating otherwise. I don't see how people don't get that COFFEE DOES NOT ALWAYS = DECAF. Jesus, are chickens and coffee permanently taboo topics as long as decaf is in the game? We went over this in Mafia 2, this is just hot air to me. If Ace turns up red, I don't think his support of decaf is incriminating either, seeing as it is plain logical. Poor guy should just use a different name for Mafia games, seriously. 4) MidnightGladius I find the clue pointing to him to be stronger than any indications from his behavior. However, he is not the town's focus right now, and rightfully so, since we only have one decent clue in his direction. 5) Plexa Another strong player. The authority hint might point towards him, and like Ace I fully expect him to be able to twist shit to make us believe he is a townie. However, I can't say that I am too swayed in either direction about him simply because his views have been moderate and logical, as they always are. 6) MTF Yet another strong player. Ironic, isn't it, how all the heavy hitters are instantly suspects? I don't know what to think about all of this, I don't see reasonable evidence for any of them as of now, but it is interesting. Maybe it's because Folca is accusing/incriminating those that are most logical (in my eyes, at least), because they are the most likely to eliminate Mafia as more clues arise? I wish I knew. 7) JeeJee Lol. So, I vote for Ace. | ||
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On November 04 2008 08:52 Folca wrote: Keep in mind people, if you really do believe that i am a Detective.. Ace is trying his best to discredit what im saying, contradicting myself Dont fall into this, keep true to what you really think is the truth Keep in mind Folca that no one knows for sure that you are a detective so I don't see why anyone should believe you ENTIRELY. It is just as possible that YOU are MAFIA and want an important member of the TOWN dead, seeing as he is very useful even if he is GREEN, but if he is BLUE then you doubled your profits. AM I CLEARER NOW? | ||
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On November 04 2008 09:01 clazziquai wrote: That's the thing that I'm worried about. A mafia member sacrifice is very well worth it for someone like Ace dead. But I hope that this isn't a trick. I think that is what is on everyone's mind right now, I was just making it a point to Folca that he is not gaining anyone's confidence by making desperate emphasized posts, in fact he makes me doubt my vote for Ace even more... I really don't want to switch again but I might. | ||
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On November 04 2008 17:19 araav wrote: AHHH FUCK YOU kids... congrats of losing one of the best roles in this game vigis killlllll Ace please, next night of course It's more Folca's fault than anyone else's, honestly. DTs need to play smarter than that. | ||
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On November 04 2008 22:56 HeRoS)Pink wrote: Well, atm if ace is mafia he did his job by slowing us for 1 day on day 2 , we should not waste our lynch on him why? 1) eveeryone will vote for Ace so there wont be any information with the vote count thats almost certain , so we would have lost 2 day/night circle to kill 1 mafia? not that good to me. 2) we should ask vigi to kill him at night (remember that even if 3 vigi goes on him, 2 of them wont work and wont be lost) What im trying to say is that we will lose important information from the day 2 lynch if we kill ace cuz as we have seen today almost none of us respected the instruction we had all agreed on and we will also lose information on voting pattern I agree, we need vigis to hit Ace so we can investigate a different set of lists tomorrow, and possibly eliminate a mafia by lynching one of the current suspects. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=81500 | ||
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On November 05 2008 01:18 Empyrean wrote: Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius supported each other as early as page 18 onward. Well, here is how I see it, logically. Case 1) Ace is mafia, decaf and Gladius are innocent. Variant A As you said, he defended them pretty early on. He knew he was mafia, and knew that they weren't. He defended them logically, playing it as if he was a townie - saying exactly what he would say if he wasn't Mafia at all. This way he is trying to appear as a protector to the town, keeping the town's best in interest in mind. This would raise his rep, make him appear less like a mafia. I find this alternative to be highly possible. Variant B I am taking your word on the fact that he defended them before the accusation here, so this is making this variant unlikely, but he could have been setting plans for the future. He probably knew it wouldn't be long before someone checks him, as most important players in the game ought to be checked to make sure they aren't misleading the town. As I and many others have said, it is very possible that he is that conniving and foreplanning given his reputation from previous games. This way, as I think you or fusion suggested, when people go back and see who Ace was adamant about defending, those 2 names would come up, and Ace would be taking two townie lives with him, or at least raising some sort of suspicion to once again dilute the list of actual Mafia being suspected. Of course he didn't know how soon his time would come, but that is irrelevant if you follow this logic. Although this seems possible, it is somewhat unlikely. Case 2) Ace is mafia, decaf and/or Gladius are Mafia. Variant A - Both are Mafia. Ace is trying to defend his fellow Mafia from the gallows. Although this would be logical and highly probable in a normal situation, I don't think Ace is that simple. Maybe I am overestimating him, but I don't think he would overlook the fact that (as I mention in 1;B) he will be checked at some point in the game. With the presence of other strong players such as MTF, you, fusion, Plexa, etc., he should KNOW that someone would backtrack and try to find allegiances and connections based on behavior. The tenacity with which he defended them tells me that this is an unlikely case, it would make him and them too obvious. Like you said before, he would be trying to keep the town's best interest at least superficially in mind to limit any suspicions placed on him in the future. Hence, I find this unlikely. Variant B - Only one is Mafia. Ace is trying to defend his fellow Mafia from the gallows, and is trying to dilute the amount of Mafia he is directly defending. I find this possible, but given what I said in 2;A, I don't think this plan is as good as what Ace would have probably come up with (1;A). Thus, since I find 1;A to be the most likely variant, I don't think I would point a finger at either decaf or MG based on Ace's defensiveness. I would look more into the clues. To me, the decaf clue is (as many have stated, and have been either suspected as Mafia or ignored) weak, and common, and serves as no evidence due to game 2. I doubt Chuiu did it on purpose as a red herring, it's just a normal thing, as cobbler said. The MG clue is pretty strong in my mind, and if no better suspects come out due to the upcoming clues, my vote will lie with him. | ||
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On November 05 2008 08:13 clazziquai wrote: d_so: how do you play it in real life?? That's usually how its done xD | ||
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On November 05 2008 11:24 ZBiR wrote: One thing - Ace knew Folca was legit, and also knew that lynching him will reveal his identity. Why would he then want to rush his death? First possible reason is that he was just being dumb. I think we could exclude it, knowing Ace from previous game (although I would be far from calling it 100% true, cause he seemed to panic a bit after being confronted by Folca) The second reason - much more likely - is that he knew he's going to die so he didn't care about that, but killing Folca right now gave him (or rather the mafia team) additional benefit. That benefit would be saving other mafia member that was supposed to be lynched instead of Folca, namely decafchicken (or maybe Gladius, but he was really unlikely to die then). It was always either Ace or Folca to be lynched, I don't see where you're coming from. Also, what stops us from lynching decaf tomorrow or the day after (if vigi fail hardcore)? There is simply no logic behind this. | ||
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On November 05 2008 17:44 clazziquai wrote: So what's going to be our next plan? Lynch who? Defend who? What should Mad Hatters do? Jacks? Detectives? I'm thinking we wait on lynch until we get more clues. As far as defending, medics should have a few obvious choices in mind at the moment, namely useful apparent townies. DTs analyze the Ace/Folca lists, use any extra ability to check suspicious players. Jacks can work as vigi to kill Ace in case vigis don't do it. That is what I would do anyways. | ||
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On November 06 2008 02:17 fusionsdf wrote: why is any of this relevant? lynch ace, we'll have a new set of clues, and go from there It's relevant because the ulterior motives of people's behavior is often a good clue in itself, like the Ace vs. FS argument. I would have to side with XCetron, it does seem like Ace and FS are trying to add another mafia to the non-suspect list by creating this fight, since FS's behavior (inactivity, cynicism, abstaining from the vote) is kind of suspicious. | ||
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On November 06 2008 04:53 nemY wrote: Pretty sure FS was like this in the first game; just ignore his behavior. As for lynching Ace... let's wait and see what clues the Day post possibly brings. If it brings down some solid concrete evidence that "x" player is mafia lynch him and vigi ace. If it brings ambiguity, then let's just lynch Ace. emirite? I don't think there is ever solid concrete evidence, just highly likely or not likely, which can also be up to personal discretion. Vigi hits, however, are guaranteed. However I agree with you, as I said before, I base my vote on clues not speculations. | ||
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*cough* Ace... EDIT: For convenience: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=81500 Updating shortly. | ||
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On November 06 2008 15:40 BloodyC0bbler wrote: That would be way to simple of a clue wouldnt it? At first I didn't think so, but now that I see the list of names... It does seem highly likely to me that my interpretation is probably false. There is no way Chuiu would give 1 option for N and 2 options for I, it's basically 2 free Mafias for the town. Anyone have any other ideas? | ||
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On November 06 2008 15:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: The names for these suspects Anonymous Man Individual (nefarious) Neighbour Guess, we are trying to tie people to these names correct? My impression is Anonomyous is not ace as well, he is anything but that As for Neighbour, his bit ends with the words Nevermore This reminds me of two things, Dota which i doubt would be that obvious and Edgar allen poe's The Raven Who likes poe or is linked to a bird Falcynn? I always thought that was a play on falcon... Kind of a stretch though. I don't know any others. | ||
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