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TL Mafia 3 [Night 5] - Page 19

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Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 02 2008 16:04 GMT
#361
Well yes we technically do have to lynch the DT after he speaks up, this way no mafia would be dumb enough to false claim knowing he'd die for nothing when he flips red.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 02 2008 16:06 GMT
#362
On November 03 2008 01:02 fanatacist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 00:55 Falcynn wrote:
On November 03 2008 00:49 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I just want to point out guys that clue analysis at this point seems very tenuous. Granted, I havent been able to find anything not aready mentioned, but the general anarchy, vengeance (vengeance was the theme, "pay the price"), and "embrace the moment" themes i think will be important later on. If you remember last game Chuius clues were always very vague in the beginning, and began to get stronger over time (which i suppose balances out mafia killing town members, or something.. but it makes sense )

also, ace, i like that plan to an extent but any mafia false claiming DT can really mess that up, as the town has no 100% way to verify what a DT says is true - although say we have 2 dts speak up and say one thing, and one dt says another, perhaps then that leads us to the mafia? though we also use many rolechecks this way...
We'd do the same thing we did for the mayor plan last game. If a detective speaks up we lynch him. If he's red he's dead (I love rhymes ) and if he's blue then we kill the person he spoke up about.

It may be unlikely that a DT would sacrifice himself...but it's all we got.

This.

Wouldn't it be safer to lynch the person he spoke up about, and if he DOESN'T come up red then lynch the DT? By lynching the DT you have a 1:1 ratio of blue : red losses at best. With the idea I just posted, a DT who has verified himself by giving a red name could keep producing results, thus being far more useful to the town than was if he was dead. It would also take away the whole sacrifice element that would prevent DTs from speaking up; I think they would become relative loners and would try to make posts that are convincing but not too convincing, acting as one of the analysts, in order to hide their role, and their factual knowledge of who is mafia and who isn't could be lost.


to clarify my previous post:

We can't do this. If the mafia know we would lynch the person the DT accuses first, they'll obviously false claim and get the innocent Vet/Jack lynched amd sac themselves for the profit.

If mafia know the DT is going to be lynched anyway, they will hesitate to false claim because the guy would flip red, and the accused is most likely legit so he died for nothing. We have to make sure everyone knows the DT WILL be lynched proactively.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Empyrean
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
17050 Posts
November 02 2008 16:07 GMT
#363
Still, I don't think we should use so many detectives early on. The ratio just isn't worth it....though it is the best plan we have at the moment.

Also, be wary of clue checkers as well. They could be mafia, putting in red herrings and deliberately misinterpreting things to mislead the town.
Moderator
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
November 02 2008 16:08 GMT
#364
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.
Lenwe
Profile Joined March 2008
Netherlands757 Posts
November 02 2008 16:09 GMT
#365
Because of the lack of clue's on the first day I agree with Fusion (as I've said before) that lynching an inactive is probably the best way to go for the first night. After that we can start looking for reoccuring clue's and with a lot of mafia vets in this game it should start getting easier to do so.

Ace's plan relies a lot on DT's and them coming out imo. A DT for one mafia member might not be a bad trade for the mafia, since DT's are so important with their abilities, not only they role checks but also since they can check the voting lists for mafia members. I can see why he would want central leadership again (it worked last game), but it will be harder to organize it like that in this game and we should deffinately give his idea some more though before we carry through with it.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 02 2008 16:09 GMT
#366
We wont be using DTs per se. They'll only speak up if the find out the elected guy is scum. Otherwise we'll just be somewhat playing blind and the DTs will be doing random checks with no direction. That's not good :/
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-02 16:14:02
November 02 2008 16:10 GMT
#367
I think lynching the DT is best.. but we do it like this
Day 1 - person speaks up, orders people to vote in places; DT checks him but doesn't speak up
Day 2 - person orders a second list of hits; DT checks a list an gets number of mafia
Day 3 - DT speaks up, posts all his information and gets lynched

Thus the DT has used his two most useful abilities already and is no longer a liability to the town. Knowing a DT is alive and having to protect him every night is a pain in the ass (see Empyrean from last game) especially seeing that the suicide bomber will likely get him. Thus we remove a liability from our side (keeping everything more secret in terms of medics) as well as verifying a leader - who is also a liability (can't have two liabilities am i right?). Also because the lynch lists were ordered, we can easily check lists and find out where the mafia are.

Also, if we lynch the person instead of the DT then mafia can just fake-role claim DT and we lose a jack or a veteran. AND we have the possibility of the mafia confusing things when DTs are saying opposing things. Lynching the DT is the only way to be sure.

EDIT: to ensure that we are only using one DT how about DT's pm him and when he receives a pm from a DT he says that he has got a pm from a DT and then the others don't have to pm him anymore (obviously he'd have to say that hes online for the next X minutes so DTs dont pm spam him). If the DT dies prematurely the "leader" looks pretty bad//

on second thought this won't work -_-;
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
fusionsdf
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada15390 Posts
November 02 2008 16:10 GMT
#368
On November 03 2008 01:02 fanatacist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 00:55 Falcynn wrote:
On November 03 2008 00:49 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I just want to point out guys that clue analysis at this point seems very tenuous. Granted, I havent been able to find anything not aready mentioned, but the general anarchy, vengeance (vengeance was the theme, "pay the price"), and "embrace the moment" themes i think will be important later on. If you remember last game Chuius clues were always very vague in the beginning, and began to get stronger over time (which i suppose balances out mafia killing town members, or something.. but it makes sense )

also, ace, i like that plan to an extent but any mafia false claiming DT can really mess that up, as the town has no 100% way to verify what a DT says is true - although say we have 2 dts speak up and say one thing, and one dt says another, perhaps then that leads us to the mafia? though we also use many rolechecks this way...
We'd do the same thing we did for the mayor plan last game. If a detective speaks up we lynch him. If he's red he's dead (I love rhymes ) and if he's blue then we kill the person he spoke up about.

It may be unlikely that a DT would sacrifice himself...but it's all we got.

This.

Wouldn't it be safer to lynch the person he spoke up about, and if he DOESN'T come up red then lynch the DT? By lynching the DT you have a 1:1 ratio of blue : red losses at best. With the idea I just posted, a DT who has verified himself by giving a red name could keep producing results, thus being far more useful to the town than was if he was dead. It would also take away the whole sacrifice element that would prevent DTs from speaking up; I think they would become relative loners and would try to make posts that are convincing but not too convincing, acting as one of the analysts, in order to hide their role, and their factual knowledge of who is mafia and who isn't could be lost.

if you lynch the guy who spoke up you lose your guaranteed innocent and the lynchpin to the entire strategy.

How do we react to mafia killing our lynchpin though? (after weve sacrificed a DT and guaranteed hes innocent)
SKT_Best: "I actually chose Protoss because it was so hard for me to defeat Protoss as a Terran. When I first started Brood War, my main race was Terran."
fusionsdf
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada15390 Posts
November 02 2008 16:13 GMT
#369
ps can we call the veteran protected guy or whatever lynchpin?

its such a clever word
SKT_Best: "I actually chose Protoss because it was so hard for me to defeat Protoss as a Terran. When I first started Brood War, my main race was Terran."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
November 02 2008 16:14 GMT
#370
On November 03 2008 01:08 Falcynn wrote:
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.


But you would notice that they wouldn't be targeted by mafia, since mafia cannot target their own.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-02 16:22:57
November 02 2008 16:21 GMT
#371
On November 03 2008 01:14 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 01:08 Falcynn wrote:
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.


But you would notice that they wouldn't be targeted by mafia, since mafia cannot target their own.
I'm pretty sure they can, but that's irrelevant. I'll give an example of what I mean.

Mafia1 claims to be veteran. Mafia2 claims to be a detective who role checked Mafia1 and found out the he's mafia. The town rallies to lynch Mafia1, he turns up red and the town assumes that Mafia2 must be a detective since he was right.

Do you see how that can be dangerous?
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-02 16:24:35
November 02 2008 16:23 GMT
#372
On November 03 2008 01:21 Falcynn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 01:14 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On November 03 2008 01:08 Falcynn wrote:
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.


But you would notice that they wouldn't be targeted by mafia, since mafia cannot target their own.
I'm pretty sure they can, but that's irrelevant. I'll give an example of what I mean.

Mafia1 claims to be veteran. Mafia2 claims to be a detective who role checked Mafia1 and found out the he's mafia. The town rallies to lynch Mafia1, he turns up red and the town assumes that Mafia2 must be a detective.

Do you see how that can be dangerous?
And then do you notice how suspicious it is when that person NEVER gets hit by mafia?

With that being said, it is far far far safer to lynch the person calling the role check

EDIT: with that being said using the three day plan proposed by myself maximizes the use out of a legit DT and is what we should be looking for.. having both a DT and a vet alive and target for the mafia is just bad - and we cant afford to have two liabilities hanging around.
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
November 02 2008 16:24 GMT
#373
On November 03 2008 00:36 Plexa wrote:
Carrying on with the "last meal" train of thought (which i think is pretty solid) leads to Caller entering the spotlight.

"NO IM KAWAIIRICE" could easily be extrapolated to the idea of a last meal without bending things too much (similar to mafia clues last game). Obviously if we see clues in the future relating to cuteness or food caller definitely needs to be examined closer


wait wha

while the clue is pretty solid the connection is a bit of a stretch. Just because I have the word rice in my profile (as part of a username, nonetheless) doesn't mean a meal necessarily.

This is like the phone clues, just because there's a telephone doesn't mean that I'm the "caller."

Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 02 2008 16:24 GMT
#374
On November 03 2008 01:21 Falcynn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 01:14 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On November 03 2008 01:08 Falcynn wrote:
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.


But you would notice that they wouldn't be targeted by mafia, since mafia cannot target their own.
I'm pretty sure they can, but that's irrelevant. I'll give an example of what I mean.

Mafia1 claims to be veteran. Mafia2 claims to be a detective who role checked Mafia1 and found out the he's mafia. The town rallies to lynch Mafia1, he turns up red and the town assumes that Mafia2 must be a detective since he was right.

Do you see how that can be dangerous?


which I'm sure they'll do. There's no way to keep the cycle of checks going to verify the entire circle without wasting DT power.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
November 02 2008 16:25 GMT
#375
On November 03 2008 01:21 Falcynn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 01:14 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On November 03 2008 01:08 Falcynn wrote:
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.


But you would notice that they wouldn't be targeted by mafia, since mafia cannot target their own.
I'm pretty sure they can, but that's irrelevant. I'll give an example of what I mean.

Mafia1 claims to be veteran. Mafia2 claims to be a detective who role checked Mafia1 and found out the he's mafia. The town rallies to lynch Mafia1, he turns up red and the town assumes that Mafia2 must be a detective since he was right.

Do you see how that can be dangerous?


Even the inverse is possible. If we lynch Mafia2, we assume Mafia1 is innocent as Mafia2 turns up red.

although i would think with a lot of clues it'd be easy to tell if someone really is innocent or not.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
November 02 2008 16:26 GMT
#376
On November 03 2008 01:23 Plexa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 01:21 Falcynn wrote:
On November 03 2008 01:14 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On November 03 2008 01:08 Falcynn wrote:
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.


But you would notice that they wouldn't be targeted by mafia, since mafia cannot target their own.
I'm pretty sure they can, but that's irrelevant. I'll give an example of what I mean.

Mafia1 claims to be veteran. Mafia2 claims to be a detective who role checked Mafia1 and found out the he's mafia. The town rallies to lynch Mafia1, he turns up red and the town assumes that Mafia2 must be a detective.

Do you see how that can be dangerous?
And then do you notice how suspicious it is when that person NEVER gets hit by mafia?

With that being said, it is far far far safer to lynch the person calling the role check
oh pfft, now I see what Amber meant. Well if they really wanted to I guess that the person claiming DT could ask for protection and have the other mafia put a hit on him and hope that he gets protected, which I'm pretty sure they can do...but we may need Chuiu to clarify.
fusionsdf
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada15390 Posts
November 02 2008 16:29 GMT
#377
On November 03 2008 01:25 Caller wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2008 01:21 Falcynn wrote:
On November 03 2008 01:14 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On November 03 2008 01:08 Falcynn wrote:
There's also the small chance that the mafia will false claim and get one of their own killed in order to gain the trust of the town. If the town believes that a mafia is detective, he can have a lot of sway over how the town votes.


But you would notice that they wouldn't be targeted by mafia, since mafia cannot target their own.
I'm pretty sure they can, but that's irrelevant. I'll give an example of what I mean.

Mafia1 claims to be veteran. Mafia2 claims to be a detective who role checked Mafia1 and found out the he's mafia. The town rallies to lynch Mafia1, he turns up red and the town assumes that Mafia2 must be a detective since he was right.

Do you see how that can be dangerous?


Even the inverse is possible. If we lynch Mafia2, we assume Mafia1 is innocent as Mafia2 turns up red.

although i would think with a lot of clues it'd be easy to tell if someone really is innocent or not.


yes, but thats a safe assumption to make since that means mafia 2 is the only 'DT' who spoke up.

Which means either mafia 1 is innocent, or all out detectives are inactive
SKT_Best: "I actually chose Protoss because it was so hard for me to defeat Protoss as a Terran. When I first started Brood War, my main race was Terran."
SoleSteeler
Profile Joined April 2003
Canada5458 Posts
November 02 2008 16:30 GMT
#378
Hi, posting to not be inactive, also. Sorry, Halloween was a bit crazy for me; I was out of town. Yesterday, I had my grad school convocation and then I went out with my friends.

Now I am here! Catching up now... (I just read all the posts I've missed, now I need to digest!)
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
November 02 2008 16:30 GMT
#379
Have we all forgotten that if the person turns green then no one has to speak up and the plan goes flawlessly!?

Is the life of one DT worth that of one mafia?
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
November 02 2008 16:30 GMT
#380
Couldn't we start by say ordering all current suspects to vote on x person and all others to vote on y person? All deviants could then be lynched, etc. Then we have a dt check x list (or all of them) and one of them posts DT says so-and-so? at which point we see if mafia kills him/her that night and if they don't then we get dt to role-check somebody (like me) and see if they confirm the role or not? And if they role-check mafia, well, free lynch lol.
On the other hand if the DT is a fake they'll either reveal themselves really easily or end up sacrificing a mafia to keep the illusion alive for one more turn.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
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