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On March 19 2008 09:04 qrs wrote:
Edit: @ Ace: He's saying that every bodyguard would get a PM. Their PM would list Mafia members as bodyguards. Each bodyguard's PM would list (the same) fake bodyguards as their colleagues. None of the bodyguards would know the difference.
They'd still be caught. Ok let's look at like this:
Scenario 1:
There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with a Mafia Mayor who also sends out the PM.
We will know how many BGs are there when the elections are over. The Mafia can't leave 2 of the real Bodyguards off the list because the 2 that didn't get a PM would speak up. They can't just add an extra 2 to the PM because any BG getting a PM from the Mayor with 9 names obviously means the Mayor is clearly not thinking straight and is fishy.
Scenario 2:
There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with an Innocent Mayor who also sends out the PM.
The PMs from the Mayor don't match those 2 "fake" PMs. Even better, the names of those 2 fakers never even appear in the Mayor's original PM and they just outted themselves as Mafia for a pathetic chance at confusion.
How can the Mafia possibly get away with faking any of it without drawing attention to their members?
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On March 19 2008 09:11 qrs wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 09:10 Ghar wrote:
What Ace meant was the real bodyguards would see it strange that they got a PM from Chuiu telling them they're bodyguard, but not from the mayor who might have left them out when PMing the bodyguards about each other.
Ace's plan = Bodyguard gets 2 PMs, 1 from Chuiu, and 1 from the Mayor telling him who the other bodyguards are. The number has to add up, anybody guard that didn't get a PM from the mayor, stands up and speaks out. You guys aren't understanding Kau's point. The real bodyguards would ALL get PMs from the mafioso mayor. The PMs would be lies, but they would all get them.
Remember the other part of the plan - the Detectives. If a Mafia Mayor sent those PMs he'd be revealed by the next day. So the BGs would know something is not right once he's found out.
The thing is, any tampering with this plan means that a Mafia member has to come out of hiding to do it. And once things don't add up, we have a list of suspects to investigate and a good place to start off. I'm SURE Mafia members will try and tamper with it, and if I'm Mayor I'll be waiting for them.
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I'm honestly not comfortable with Empyrean even being Pardoner. His logic is not adding up.
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On March 19 2008 09:32 Kau wrote:
Ace, I don't see how scenario 1 would happen at all. Unless I don't understand how the game works (which is a definite possibility), this is how I see it using your numbers.
What everyone knows:
There are 7 bodyguards.
Only the mayor knows which 7 people are bodyguards.
Now, we assume that the mayor is also mafia, so he can coordinate with other mafia members.
Since he knows who each bodyguard is, he will send each of the 7 bodyguards a pm. Each pm will have 7 people in it: 6 mafia and 1 bodyguard. Each bodyguard gets pm'ed back by the mafia members (6 different pm's for each bodyguard) and so they believe there are 7 bodyguards. No bodyguards are left out. Each list sent contains 7 people. Each bodyguard recieves 6 confirmation pm's.
If this Does happen the Mafia has then implicated 7 of their own Mafia members because:
1.) The DTs investigated the Mayor and find out he is MAFIA
2.) Once this is revealed, all the BGs speak out about the PMs they received and not only are the names tallied, the common names in PMs that are fishy get investigated first
For that hole to work, it assumes that we have a Mafia Mayor and that no Detective investigates them. That would never happen.
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And to further clarify this is how the self-checking works:
Bodyguards are checked by each other and Mayor with the PMs
Mayor is checked by Detectives
Detectives stay silent if the Mayor is legit, and speak up if he is Mafia
If ANY Detective speaks up against the Mayor and we can't decide whether or not who to believe, we go to the ultimatum approach - just lynch the DT first and if he is telling the truth the Mayor is Mafia. Boom - Mafia Mayor gone by the second day.
If you see any flaws in the self-checking scheme, also point that out so we can discuss.
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Guys remember all your "holes" are assuming a Mafia Mayor who won't be checked by Detectives - that's a very far stretch.
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On March 19 2008 10:10 Kau wrote:
Guys, the reason I brought up this hole was because I didn't know that the mayor could be proven mafia or innocent. Since Ace cleared it up, sending fake pms as a mafia mayor will just get them killed.
no problem, I am hoping people find holes so we can clear up any confusion about the plan and also find solutions where they are needed.
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On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote:
Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.
Read my self checking scheme.
Sure we waste some Detective Power, but we get a much needed confirmation of the Mayor's status.
An added benefit is that once the Detectives know the Mayor is innocent, he can then PM him and reveal himself.
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On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote:
Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure?
Yes, but another alternative is to apply clues to both of them and find out which fits best and go from there. If we make a mistake and lynch one of them innocently, then the other is sure to be Mafia.
When that testimony is resolved we will also know the status of the Mayor.
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On March 19 2008 11:26 BlindAlbino wrote:
Well hopefully we can get a good mayor/pardoner this time around. Tracil was completely useless last game, and the whole lynching FS thing was a joke. If we are gonna elect someone, has to be someone that people actually like so we dont get another bandwagon lynch.
I vote Ace for Mayor.
http://teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?currentpage=6&topic_id=68177
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Needless to say I'm very,very uncomfortable with Empyrean even being Pardoner nevertheless Mayor.
Seriously people that are voting for Empyrean what exactly are you basing this vote off of?
The fact that he played well last round even though he was Mafia?
The wrong thinking that since he was Mafia last round that he surely can't be Mafia this round?
Those 2 points are clearly not going to help choose a Good Mayor. But that isn't my problem with his candidacy - this is:
He role claimed Detective.
This one action brings out a major problem. At this point we can't verify that Empyrean is legit as a DT. We pretty much have to go on blind trust, and I'm begging those of you who have played this game before to recall what happens when we act on blind faith. Nothing good will come out of it. Why would someone claim a key role like that early, saying that they fear they would be killed at night? If he really was acting in the best interest of the town, he would realize that as a key target the Medics would protect him and how that simple action puts a spin on the Mafia killing power. But he went the selfish route.
Even more so, Empyrean never had a plan until myself and Ghar put plans up. He never even read the original plans and even got qsr's plan analyzed WRONG. How can this guy be a good candidate even though he didn't read many of the posts that are the main focus of discussion right now?
But besides all of that, the final nail in the coffin is the fact that everyone says Empyrean is a good player.
As any good mafia player will tell you, role claiming is a great strategy - only when done at the right time.
The very beginning of the game when nothing can be proved, Empyrean an acclaimed good player role claims. He even admits that it can't be proved but we should just trust him.
Think this out guys. A GOOD player that has not acted on logic, has not posted a plan till later in voting, and is running on a platform of "trust me based on my actions last game" which have no bearing on his status this game. HOW is this going to help us survive?
He has not done anything so far that shows me or many others he is capable of acting in the best interest of the town and has even admitted it. Empyrean is smart - and he certainly isn't running on a platform that shows that. It's a trust platform, and right now the best thing we can do is vote based on plans of action and leadership NOT trust - because that can't be proven until later.
Stop voting for him. I may have a slight lead right now, but by tomorrow who knows how the voting will stack up. I may even never get the Mayor position. I'm not comfortable with a guy who's acting selfishly and irrationally on Day 1 in any position of power. Even if he is Pardoner I'd be worried.
Once I again I'm begging you guys to reconsider.
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On March 19 2008 12:07 JeeJee wrote:as for the other candidates..meh. i was keeping an updated excel sheet of ALL the people, who they vote for, who supports them, who they support, who accuses them, who they accuse, because it gets oh-so-easy to keep track of people (i was reading thread @ work and felt like doing that) then i get home and flip vanilla, so i suddenly get far too lazy to do that =/ maybe someone else can take over, i'll send you what i have right now (it goes up to page 35ish i think?) oh and it has the list of all the people, their sigs, and potential themes used for clues, ordered by likelihood, since I think that getting a list of clues that could apply to a certain person, then running through the day post to see if any in fact DO match, is a far better way than vice versa (running through the post to see the people they might match to) someone with a lot of time (randombum?) wanna do this? 
I've also got 2 notepads with info of stuff myself 
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On March 19 2008 12:11 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 12:07 JeeJee wrote:
people who vote for empyrean crack me up. if he's legit, the best he can do for us is verify the mayor then get shot by mafia, because there's no reason to vote for him at all, since saboteur will juts be laughin at us (realize that he had nobody to roleblock until empyrean went "im dt lulz!") if we elect him
I PM'd Ace something. Don't worry.
I got your PM, I'll respond later when I'm back from going out.
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my frown was in response to OpZ's posts, I have no clue where he is going lol
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don't jump to any conclusions just yet guys
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Most likely anyone who has a clue pointing to them won't be lynched the first day if I got Mayor unless there is some very strong evidence against them, and even then I might not do it.
If I HAVE to lynch someone though, I already have an idea of how to go about it.
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On March 19 2008 12:57 ahrara_ wrote:
I see clues as largely a means of supporting a suspicion, not the beginning of one. Like I said, if you've been following the thread, there have been people who've done some weird things that warrant suspicions. Nothing for sure, but plenty of starting points not based on clues.
This is something that needs constant repeating.
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On March 19 2008 13:00 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 12:59 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 12:57 ahrara_ wrote:
I see clues as largely a means of supporting a suspicion, not the beginning of one. Like I said, if you've been following the thread, there have been people who've done some weird things that warrant suspicions. Nothing for sure, but plenty of starting points not based on clues. This is something that needs constant repeating. You seriously do remind me of Tracil last game. You just don't say "scum" as every second word.
I'm being careful about throwing that word around, I don't want to start any false bandwagons by accident.
I haven't even accused anyone yet lol
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I won't share it yet.
And yes it possibly can end up getting one of my voters killed, but I highly doubt it.
And if it does look like I'm going to win for sure, I'll post the strat on purpose as insurance that it works.
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EPT
