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On March 26 2008 07:46 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 07:01 Ace wrote:On March 26 2008 05:39 Scorch wrote:Ace himself said that he doesn't care about clues, but behaviour exclusively  This way inactive Mafia members are just as much as a burden to them. We've got a few inactive townies, but I guess having about only ~20 or less players missing isn't a big deal right? /sarcasm annnnnnnd finally, for the person who suggested we only investigate one half of the groups (since the other could be deduced from the total) -- dont. this is good assuming everyone votes, and the people who didn't previously vote also dont' vote. if this could be guaranteed, there would be a better course of action anyway (virtual splits), but since it's not a guarantee at all, both sides must still be investigated. the good thing about doing this, is that it doesn't matter whether you want to follow along with the plan or not, because you're still following along with it. we know what the total mafia #s have to add up to, and if the people who were told to vote for someone choose to abstain, or in fact choose to vote for someone else entirely, they will affect the total, and in fact, reveal their alignment. obv there's a loophole to this (at least it looks like it - thankfully, there's a somewhat obvious prevention mechanism as well)
I didn't want to point this part out though, because any townies that do this may accidentally affect totals if say...a Mafia member tried to jump the gun and leave, and then other townies didn't vote also.
If enough of them leave the group, we may have a problem. But yes, there is a prevention mechanism for that too.
I've already started taking notes on a certain select few peoples behaviors.
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On March 26 2008 07:56 Wysp wrote:
Ace, make sure all these people are PM'd in the vote spliting, the group of 7 should be easy enough to organize but its going to take a miracle for a well organized split of the 29. Its definately worth a try, though.
indeed.
the good thing about the group of 29 though is that most of those players are active. If 20 out of 29 move the other 9 are in a jam.
While technically innocents can move if they please, Mafia cant because they'd affect the total. We jut dont want innocents to move because it would cause too much moving and confusion.
Anyone thats innocent doesn't even HAVE a reason to move because they wont get caught.
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On March 26 2008 07:57 Wysp wrote:
Also, if this splitting causes the wrong person to be lynched, he can just be pardoned (not sure if this has been mentioned, I haven't time right now but to skim.)
after tonight's killings + the info we already know, I'm almost certain tomorrow is going to be nuts.
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I dont have anything on you, you probably started posting actively after I stopped taking notes :/
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I dont have notes on a lot of people. only...43 people.
btw, what ever happened to Klive5ive?
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just wondering, you were active in the beginning and kinda disappeared :/
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qrs - thinking way too much about the wrong things,however is willing to follow the BodyGuard Plan and has seen how it works out. He questions almost everything I do, which is good but it seems to come from posts other people make. Hopefully it's just enthusiam and not a sheepish mentality over proving my status.
Heros)Pink - saying not to put Ghar in position because clues point to him even though they really dont, is vying for Empyrean against me and Ghar. THis dude is very odd, as even when logic stares him in the face he refuses to look.
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This is all before Day 2.
Empryean claims DT on Mayor voting Day, so early when it isn't even needed much. He is clearly leading to some confusion among the Townies, and is already starting to point fingers (at ahrara). He "concedes" to me after he realizes it's almost a sure bet I will be elected Mayor, and instead Happily settles for Pardoner. He also isn't "defending" himself with any reason when suspicious posts of his are pointed out.
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well, if we're sitting loose that implies anal rape :/
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On March 26 2008 15:10 ~OpZ~ wrote:
sit lose then
loose not lose, no Ninja edit 4 u!
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you know that makes no sense right?
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On March 26 2008 15:53 Alethios wrote:
A chink in your armor there Ace? Thats the best you can come up with? I make no sense?
I don't mean to suggest that you are part of the multi-international corporation, simply that you could be.
However, I DO mean to suggest that your plan for tomorrow's voting is stupid, because it is. If there were higher numbers of mafia in each list... I might condone it. As it stands however, if you took a random sample... your data would probably lie within 1 std deviation of what you've got. Not enough to act upon. Give up, try another tack.
explain your math, because right now it's not adding up.
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On March 26 2008 16:18 Alethios wrote:
Put simply... 1/7 Guilty in the first lot (this is your better sample) is still only 14.3% mafia. Compare this to the total murderers in the game, over the total players. 22/130 = 16.9% mafia
Then you have your 10/58 Guilty in the second lot.... Which is slightly more at 10/58 = 17.2% but still not far from the mean. Furthermore, much more effort is required to separate out these mafia than in the first lot.
Seriously... I don't buy your "math isn't adding up" for a second. I realise that (assuming you ARE town) you have to maintain the trust of the town, but persisting with this stupid scheme isn't helping in the slightest.
You're still wrong, Out of those 7 people you think I don't know that some of them are 100% innocent?
At this point if you don't realize I'm innocent I cant but help in thinking you're either purposely trying to mislead the town or just plain old haven't been reading the thread.
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[QUOTE]On March 26 2008 17:01 Alethios wrote:
[QUOTE]On March 26 2008 16:52 Ghar wrote:
Chuiu, can detectives check abstain lists?
[/QUOTE]
we cant
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On March 26 2008 17:34 Alethios wrote:
I've suggested right from the beginning that if Ace gives us another Mandalor, we should go for it. What i've been arguing against is the enforced voting, where we vote for X or Y or else.
The entire point of the enforced voting to those who can see it is not only to find a Mafia but to find out which townies are 100% innocent. This way after tomorrows votes I possibly won't ever even have to do enforced voting. I'll have enough information on 11 possible mafia targets in no time just by the very fact that I'll know who's innocent + the innocents I know now.
On March 26 2008 16:18 Alethios wrote:
The list of 7 people I think is wrong, but go ahead if you wish. It'll still take a number of turns (and detectives) in any case, resources that might be put to better use. I'll warn you now though, your seemingly sturdy plans will fall down as soon as people start missing votes, or dissenting.
It will take 1 turn, and thats only if one of them dont die.
The list will be split 4/3. 1 Mafia among them.
I already know some of those guy's roles. Once I find out which side the Mafia is on it's going to be at worst 1/4 or 25% chance of finding him without applying prior knowledge.
The other half of that list is automatically innocent. How are you figuring it will take us more than 1 turn? 1 detective - 1 turn. Thats it. If people miss votes when they've had WAY more than enough time so be it. It's the burden on the Mafia. If they leave the group and no other townies does then we have our suspect. If he leaves and only 1 or 2 townies do also, BAM we still have our suspect.
Where is the failure part of this plan? If all 7 of them vote differently even though some of those people already PM'd me saying they would vote the same to prove their innocence?
You're arguments isn't adding up because any innocent townie that would do what's best for the town would see how this works out.
Where is the fabled Ace of old? Is this the best you can come up with? Not even an attempt to counter my logic? For shame.
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Counter what logic?
Anyone playing this game that read the plan knows I'm innocent right now. It's impossible for me to be Mafia. Just because you cooked up some fabled scenario for some reason to confuse the town doesn't mean the rest of us are going to buy it. That post was the silliest set of logic leaps I've seen and it clearly shows you are up to something.
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a regular cultist? wtf are you talking about.
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sigh, ok.
Keep talking whatever nonsense keeps you happy. We'll ask you to go forward with the plan tomorrow, and whether or not your with us we'll do what we can.
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I just answered that in the previous post.
There is no DT flaw as there are no Godfather roles. Which means the DT answers to someone's role always is 100% correct. Where's the flaw?
There is no way that all 4 DTs are inactive with me knowing Mandalor was Mafia + getting a vote count.
That takes care of your DT flaw.
What do you mean work? The 58 person split is not only to find Mafia, but to find out who's innocent. I don't know how many times we have to tell you this but you keep beating it into your head that there's some magical flaw.
I'm not Cross Referencing anything.
But above all else, I have at least 3 times as much information as YOU do. So obviously I know exactly why this plan works in ways you could never even fathom.
Don't tell me you really think I accused wurm by accident?
The Mafia isn't the only one playing mind games this time around.
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You're wrong.
If a DT asks someone's role, regular mafia are revealed as MAFIA otherwise there would be no point in only being able to ask twice.
Mafia is a ROLE. Doesn't matter if it's special or not.
Right, so after tomorrows vote you get:
4/20 Mafia in one list (With 10 people changing or abstaining)
5/29 Mafia in the other list.
What new information do you get from that? NONE.
I get a lot more than you think. If I already know that in that first half of 29 that 10 are innocent, and then it comes out that 6 of those are Mafia to YOU it looks like 6/29 but to me it looks like 6/19.
And of those 19, there may be circumstances I know about that implicates some of them and frees others where it can drop down to even 6/15 and lower.
I've told you this before, I know much more information than you do so I have no need to Cross Reference lists first. I can do that AFTER but there's no point in doing that with 58 people when I could save 4 times the work by splitting the list in half and comparing it with the info I already know.
I don't see why you think you can bring in talk about wurm and how YOU are the one playing mind games this time! Expecting me to go "oh yes, you are very clever aren't you" Not relevant, sorry.
I said that in the hopes that you'd realize everything I've done so far is more than what it seems. Sometimes the simplest explanation isn't best.
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EPT
